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Development of a National VisionAn Analytic Framework – Irish TIMES
Brian Ó Gallachóir, Alessandro Chiodi, Maurizio Gargiulo & Paul Deane
Ireland in 2050: A Low Carbon Future – EPA/NESC
14th November 2012 Customs House Dublin14th November 2012, Customs House, Dublin
*
Irish TIMES Project
Partners
Funded by
>200 MARKAL / TIMES Users
TIMES Modelling
Cost and emissions balance
TIMES modelGDP
Coal processingility
Process energy
Heating area
P l tiRefineries
IndustryDomesticsources
avai
lab
Population
Light
Communication
Power plantsand
Commercial and tertiary sector
sour
ce a
Communication
Power
Person
Transportation
CHP plants
Households Demce
s, R
es
Person kilometers
Freight kilometers
C p a tsand district
heat networks
TransportationImports
mands
rgy
pric
kilometers
S
Gas network
Fi lP i
Ener
Service DemandsFinal energyPrimary energy
Why bother modelling?
• We can’t predict the future • Can’t small changes in inputs change the results?However ….• We have targets and goals that we need to meet• Uncertainty is not an excuse for inactionUncertainty is not an excuse for inaction…. and robust well bounded models ….
id h ti l ti• avoid chaotic solutions • can provide very useful insights regarding the future• can generate a knowledge base to underpin policy• can point to least risk choices via scenariosp• can strengthen our negotiating position
One purpose – Improved negotiation
EU Analysis 2008ySEC[2008] 85 Vol II - Page 43 Table 4 – cost optimal 10% EU-non-ETS target €40 - €50/tCO2cost optimal 10% EU-non-ETS target €40 - €50/tCO2
– non-ETS GHG reduction for Ireland of 17%
I i h TIMES S i A l i 2011
[€2000/ton CO2] Scenario 2020
Irish TIMES Scenario Analysis 2011
[€2000/ton CO2] Scenario 2020
Non-ETS emissions NETS-GHG 212.9Non ETS emissions NETS GHG 212.9
Second purpose – Inform climate policy
Scenario Descriptionenergy system demands met in the absence of emissions reductionREF energy system demands met in the absence of emissions reduction targets.
Second purpose – Inform climate policy
Scenario Descriptionenergy system demands met in the absence of emissions reductionREF energy system demands met in the absence of emissions reduction targets.
80% CO i i d ti b l 1990 l l b 2050 A i ltCO2-2050 80% CO2 emissions reduction below 1990 levels by 2050. Agriculture emissions are implicitly assumed to meet 80% reduction also.
Second purpose – Inform climate policy
Scenario Descriptionenergy system demands met in the absence of emissions reductionREF energy system demands met in the absence of emissions reduction targets.
80% CO i i d ti b l 1990 l l b 2050 A i ltCO2-2050 80% CO2 emissions reduction below 1990 levels by 2050. Agriculture emissions are implicitly assumed to meet 80% reduction also.
GHG-205095% CO2 emissions reduction target below 1990 levels (-96.6% relative to 2005). Agriculture is assumed to meet a 50% emissions reduction by 2050.y
Scenarios: REF
50
REF40
30
20
Mt C
O2eq
‐23.8% below 2005+12 2% b 1990
34 Mt
10
M +12.2% above 1990
02005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050
‐10
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050
Scenarios: CO2-2050
50
REF40
30
CO2 205020
Mt C
O2eq
CO2‐2050
10
M
02005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050
6 Mt
‐10
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050
Scenarios: GHG-2050
50
REF40
30
CO2 205020
Mt C
O2eq
CO2‐2050
10
M Agriculture GHG in 2050 = Agriculture GHG in 2020
GHG‐2050102005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050
‐8 Mt
‐10
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050
Scenarios : GHG-2050
50
REF40
30
CO2 205020
Mt C
O2eq
≈50% expected CO2‐2050
GHG‐205010
M 50% expected reduction in
Agriculture GHG1.5 Mt
02005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050
‐10
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050
EE, Fuel Switching and RE
Scenario Results: 2050 Emissions Reductions
44.745
50
33.735
40
45
14.8
25
30
Mt C
O2eq
5.8
3.610
15
20M
3
2.3
1.2
6.0
0.0
1.2
0.0
1.7
0.7
0.8
1.50
5
10
F t n y l s 0 t n y l s e 0
REF
Transport
Electricity
gene
ratio
n
Indu
stry
Resid
entia
Service s
CO2‐2050
Transport
Electricity
gene
ratio
n
Indu
stry
Resid
entia
Service s
Agriculture
GHG
‐2050
2005 2050
Scenario Results: Sectoral Emissions Reductions
44.745
50
33.735
40
45
14.8
25
30
Mt C
O2eq
5.8
3.610
15
20M
3
2.3
1.2
6.0
0.0
1.2
0.0
1.7
0.7
0.8
1.50
5
10
F t n y l s 0 t n y l s e 0
REF
Transport
Electricity
gene
ratio
n
Indu
stry
Resid
entia
Service s
CO2‐2050
Transport
Electricity
gene
ratio
n
Indu
stry
Resid
entia
Service s
Agriculture
GHG
‐2050
2005 2050
Scenario Results: 2050 Residential TFC3500
2500
3000
2000
toe
Electricity
Elec‐th
1000
1500
kt
Heat
Renewable
G
500
1000 Gas
Oil
Coal+Peat
0
2005 REF
2050
2050 REF
2050
2050 REF
2050
2050 REF
2050
2050 REF
2050
2050
2
CO2‐2
GHG
‐2
CO2‐2
GHG
‐2
CO2‐2
GHG
‐2
CO2‐2
GHG
‐2
CO2‐2
GHG
‐2
. 2010 . 2020 . 2030 . 2040 ‐ 2050
Scenario Results: 2050 Transport2500
2000
1500
ktoe Electricity
1000
k
Biogas
Biodiesel
Natural Gas
500Diesel
Gasoline
0
REF
CO2‐80
CO2‐95 REF
CO2‐80
CO2‐95 REF
CO2‐80
CO2‐95
Private Transport
Freight Public Transport
2050
Scenario Results: 2050 Electricity Demand
4500
5000
4000
4500
3000
3500
e
Transport
2000
2500ktoe Residential
Industry
Power Sector
1000
1500 Services
Agriculture
0
500
5 F 0 5 F 0 5 F 0 5 F 0 5 F 0 5
2005 RE
CO2‐80
CO2‐9 RE
CO2‐80
CO2‐9 RE
CO2‐80
CO2‐9 RE
CO2‐80
CO2‐9 RE
CO2‐80
CO2‐9
. 2010 . 2020 . 2030 . 2040 ‐ 2050
Scenario Results: 2050 Electricity Generation6000
4000
5000
3000
4000Other
Import/Export
Renewables
2000
ktoe
Renewables
Gas CCS
Gas
1000Oil
Coal CCS
Coal+Peat
0
2005 REF
‐2050
‐2050
REF
‐2050
‐2050
REF
‐2050
‐2050
REF
‐2050
‐2050
REF
‐2050
‐2050
‐1000
CO2‐
GHG
‐
CO2‐
GHG
‐
CO2‐
GHG
‐
CO2‐
GHG
‐
CO2‐
GHG
‐
. 2010 . 2020 . 2030 . 2040 ‐ 2050
Scenario Results: 2050 Renewable Energy6000
CO2‐205068% RES
GHG‐205085% RES
Biomass
5000Currently
RES‐E 467 ktoe
68% RES 85% RES
BioEthanol BioEthanol
4000
oe
RES‐T 98 ktoeRES‐H 218 ktoe
Wind
Biogas BiogasBioEthanol BioEthanol
2000
3000kto
Wind Biodiesel BiodieselBiomassBiomass1000
2000
Biogas and Waste Biogas and WasteHydro HydroOcean0
RES‐E RES‐T RES‐H RES‐E RES‐T RES‐HRES E RES T RES H RES E RES T RES H
CO2‐2050 GHG‐2050
2050
The costs .. MACC..
Scenario 2020 2030 2040 2050CO2-80 33 136 99 273CO2 80 33 136 99 273CO2-85 33 131 158 523CO2 90 33 127 158 694CO2-90 33 127 158 694CO2-95 =GHG-80 65 185 173 1308
NETS-20/CO2-80 167 113 116 273
NETS 80 141 97 87 554NETS-80 141 97 87 554
The costs .. System Costs..
The costs .. System Costs / GDP
Next Steps
• Consultation with stakeholders• Update input assumptions• Improve energy efficiency options• Improve energy efficiency options• Reintegrate within European PET model • Model electrification (heating and transport) within
PLEXOS• Move to co-optimisation (energy and agriculture
together).• Feedback to economy (elastic demand and CGE)
Thank You
Energy Policy
&
Modelling Group
Energy Policy and Modelling Group on