Development of Transport Scenarios for Denmark: An Iterative and Participatory Perspective

Development of transport scenarios for Denmark An iterative and participatory perspective Zurich – 72th Semi-annual ETSAP meeting 12th December, 2017 Giada Venturini PhD Student Energy System Analysis Technical University of Denmark [email protected]

DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark

Background Mutual validation of two perspectives Enlarge model structure to integrate new parameters Difficulty in attributing quantitative estimates to uncertain drivers Implicit information in qualitative scenario discourse Scope and capabilities of modelling tools

Qualitative scenarios

Explore and capture causal relations and interdependencies

Quantitative scenarios Model the

deterministic structure of the system

2


Case study Case: Transport scenarios for Denmark - Analysing 100% RE pathways Research questions Methodology o How can we bridge qualitative and quantitative tools for the creation of

scenarios in TIMES-DK? o What do we gain from this dialogue? How can it be improved? Transport and energy system o What are robust and sustainable pathways for the future energy and

transport system in Denmark? o Which policy measures can support the recommended pathways?

3


Framework for scenario development

Workshop

Translation Quantification

TIMES-DK

Workshop

Workshop

Workshop Workshop

1 2

4


Energy system model TIMES-DK Primary Energy Supply

Import/Export/Mining

OilCoalGas

GasolineDiesel

Biofuels

Energy cropsManureStrawWaste

Wood chipsWood pellets

Electricity

Conversion Technologies

Crude oil refineries

Combined heat and power plants

Biorefineries & biogas plants

Electricboilers and heat pumps

End-use sectors

Residential

Industry

Transport

Fossil Biomass ElectricityBlended

fuels

Blending Technologies

ElectricityBiofuelsFossil fuels Heat

5


Structure of transport sector

WALK

MOPED

BIKE

METRO

CAR

BUS

MOTO

COACH

TRAIN

LIGHT TRAIN

Fuels

Fossil

Short Distance

Demands

Extra Short Distance

Long Distance

Medium

Distance

Time

...

Transport infrastructures

EXISTING INFSTR_METRO

EXISTING INFSTR_ROAD

EXISTINGINFSTR_BIKE

EXISTING INFSTR_RAIL

NEWINFSTR_BIKE

NEW INFSTR_METRO

NEW INFSTR_RAIL

NEW INFSTR_ROAD

= Fuel

Legend

TECH = Technology

= Demands

= Flow

INFRASTR = Infrastructure process

= Time

= Infrastructurecommodities

TTB

Cycling lane

Metro railw

ay

Train railway

Road

Tattini et al. (2018)

6



7



8


TIMES-DK scenario interface

9



10



11


Scenario workshops Citizens, stakeholders and researchers involved in the creation of transport-focused scenarios for Denmark

Discussion of driving forces and uncertain parameters

Design of scenarios

through TIMES-DK interface

Assessment and comparison of

scenario results

12


Scenario workshops Scenario Main Assumptions

Base • No emission caps • No RE% targets after 2020 • No restrictions on power and biomass imports • Baseline taxation scheme for all sectors

Transport Measures

• Phase-out of fossil fuels in transport by 2035 (excluding maritime); other sectors by 2030/2035

• Imports of biomass not allowed from 2020 • Improved bike & public transport infrastructure • Increased car occupancy levels • Feebate scheme supporting alternative vehicles

Target Same as Base, except phase-out of fossil fuels in transport by 2035, other sectors by 2030/2035.

Allow Biofuels Same as Transport Measures, except biomass imports are allowed.

13


Scenario results

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Base Transport Measures Target Allow Biofuels

Mpa

ss-k

m

Demand by Mode - Inland Passenger

Walk

Train

Strain

Motorbike

Moped

Metro

Coach

Car

Bus

Bike

14


Scenario results

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Base Transport Measures

kveh

icle

s

Car Stock

Otto Engine Blending 1 - Existing

LPG - Existing

Gas Engine Blending 1 - Existing

Electricity BEV - Existing

Diesel Engine Blending 1 - Existing

Hybrid Electric Vehicle Gasoline 4 -New

Hybrid Electric Vehicle Gasoline 3 -New

Battery Electric Vehicle - New

15


Scenario results

0

50

100

150

200

250

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Base Target

PJ

Transport Fuel Consumption

Bio Synt Natural Gas

Natural Gas

Liquid petrol gas

Biokerosene

Kerosene

Heavy Fuel Oil

Gasoline

Bioethanol

Electricity

Diesel

Biodiesel

16


Scenario results

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Transport Measures Allow Biofuels

PJ

Biomass use

Import - Wood pellets

Import - Wood chips

Import - Waste

Import - Sugar Beet

Import - Rapeseed

Export - Glycerol

Export - Biogas

Domestic - Straw

Domestic - Manure

17


Scenario results

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Base Transport Measures Allow Biofuels

Kt

Emissions CO2

TRACO2NN

TRACO2NI

TRACO2A

TRACO2

SUPCO2

RESCO2

INDCO2

ELCCO2W

ELCCO2

18


Learning opportunities • The method provides space for:

– Discussion and debate over relevant drivers – Common evaluation of pathways – Understanding of cause-effect relationships – Validation of assumptions

• Different development trajectories and policies can be tested: importance of participation and interaction in the scenario creation

19


Challenges and further work

• Simplification or modification of scenario interface: adjust tool to group needs

• Time constraints: faster result generation

• Provide further guidance on drivers’ impacts: sensitivity analyses, screening of results…

20


Thank you for your attention! Comments, doubts, suggestions?

Giada Venturini PhD Student

Energy System Analysis DTU Management Engineering

[email protected]

21

Date post:	22-Jan-2018
Category:	Data & Analytics
Upload:	iea-etsap
View:	60 times
Download:	3 times

Development of Transport Scenarios for Denmark: An Iterative and Participatory Perspective

Data & Analytics