Developmental Idealism, Demographic Developmental Idealism, Demographic Change, and MigrationChange, and Migration

Arland Thornton

University of Michigan

Four Parts of My Talk

1. Developmental Idealism2. Demographic Change3. Developmental models in Southeast

Europe4. Migration

All Parts Assume that:

1. Human brains are essential components of demographic decisionmaking.

2. Human brains make decisions, at least partially, based on worldviews, beliefs, values, and other ideational elements.

Start with Developmental Idealism

Developmental Idealism is an Ideational Model

1. Tells us how the world works-- How the world is organized and operates-- What causes what

Developmental Idealism is an Ideational Model

1. Tells us how the world works-- How the world is organized and operates-- What causes what

2. Tells us how to live in the world-- What is good and moral-- Motivations for actions-- Appropriate means for desired ends-- Appropriate roles and relationships

Reading History Sideways:The Fallacy and Enduring Impact of the Developmental Paradigm on Family Life

The University of Chicago Press, 2005.

Start with Modernization or Developmental Framework

1. Hundreds of years old

2. NOT presenting it to advocate it as a research or policy tool.

3. I am a strong critic of modernization theory.

4. I present it here ONLY because it is necessary to understand developmental idealism.

The Developmental Paradigm

1. The developmental paradigm is a model of change.

The Developmental Paradigm

1. The developmental paradigm is a model of change.

2. Change is pictured as natural, uniform, necessary, and directional.

The Developmental Paradigm

1. The developmental paradigm is a model of change.

2. Change is pictured as natural, uniform, necessary, and directional.

3. An ancient framework: Greece, Rome, Christian theologians, Enlightenment

Societal Development

Birth

Childhood

Early Adulthood

Old Age

Time

Dev

elo

pm

ent

Development

Full Maturity

Societal Development

Birth

Childhood

Early Adulthood

Full Maturity

Old Age

Time

Dev

elo

pm

ent

Development

England

Australian Aborigines

Tahiti

Aztecs

China

Italy

U.N. HDI

U.S. 9.4

England 9.3

Japan 9.3

Argentina 8.5

Brazil 7.8

China 7.2

Bolivia 6.7

India 5.9

Nepal 5.0

Nigeria 4.6

Somalia 2.9

- Industrial Society

-Cities

-Wealth

-High levels of Education

-Technology

Socioeconomic Modernity

Individualism

Older Marriage

Youthful Autonomy

Gender Egalitarianism

Planned and Low Fertility

Family Modernity

Cause and effect relationships

Socioeconomic modernity is a cause of familial modernity

Familial modernity is a cause of socioeconomic modernity.

Implications of This for Ordinary People in Everyday Life

1. Suggests a dynamic world changing from traditional to modern

Implications of This for Ordinary People in Everyday Life

1. Suggests a dynamic world changing from traditional to modern

2. Shows that the future and the good life are in the West

Implications of This for Ordinary People in Everyday Life

1. Suggests a dynamic world changing from traditional to modern

2. Shows that the future and the good life are in the West

3. Provides a model for progress called developmental idealism.

1. Modern society is good and includes:

- Industrialized

- Urbanized

- Highly Educated

- Highly Knowledgeable

Elements of Developmental Idealism

2. Modern family is good and includes:

1. Modern society is good.

Elements of Developmental Idealism

- Individualism-- Old Age at Marriage- Youthful Autonomy

-Gender Egalitarianism-Family Planning-Low Fertility

3. Modern family is a cause and effect of a modern society.

2. Modern family is good.

1. Modern society is good.

Elements of Developmental Idealism

3. Modern family is a cause and effect of a modern society.

2. Modern family is good.

1. Modern society is good.

Elements of Developmental Idealism

4. Individuals have the right to be free and equal.

Points About Developmental Idealism

1. Point is Not whether the elements are true or false, good or bad.

2. Point is whether they are accepted, rejected, or modified.

3. Point is whether they motivate new behavior.

4. I argue that their acceptance can lead to demographic change.

Developmental Idealism Studies Program Developmental Idealism Studies Program

1. Is studying the dissemination of developmental idealism around the world

USA

Argentina

Nepal

Developmental Idealism Studies Research Sites

India

Albania

Egypt

Saudi Arabia

Taiwan

China

Iraq

Malawi

Iran

Bulgaria

Syria

Turkey

Pakistan

Lebanon

Hungary

Vietnam

Some Results of Our Studies1. People understand and use developmental

models and hierarchies

2. People understand developmental idealism beliefs and values.

3. People know what family traits go with development.

4. People believe there are causal connections between family and societal change.

5. Many elements of developmental idealism are widely endorsed.

My ThesisMy Thesis

Developmental idealism has spread globallyDevelopmental idealism has spread globally

Virtually all countriesVirtually all countries

Virtually all levels within societiesVirtually all levels within societies

Clashes between developmental idealism and Clashes between developmental idealism and local cultureslocal cultures

Produced demographic changeProduced demographic change

But, not only force for demographic changeBut, not only force for demographic change

Next Focus is Effects of Developmental Idealism on

Demographic Change

Examples of Developmental Idealism (DI) EffectsExamples of Developmental Idealism (DI) Effects

1. International family planning program1. International family planning program

---- Before 1950 every government was pronatalistBefore 1950 every government was pronatalist

---- 1960s onward family planning programs worldwide1960s onward family planning programs worldwide

---- Over last several decades fertility has declined in Over last several decades fertility has declined in almost every country of the worldalmost every country of the world

Examples of Developmental Idealism (DI) EffectsExamples of Developmental Idealism (DI) Effects

2. International program to increase maturity and 2. International program to increase maturity and consent in marriageconsent in marriage

---- Mature marriage declared to be a human rightMature marriage declared to be a human right

---- Marital consent declared to be a human rightMarital consent declared to be a human right

---- Over last several decades age at marriage has Over last several decades age at marriage has increased in almost every country of the worldincreased in almost every country of the world

Examples of Developmental Idealism (DI) EffectsExamples of Developmental Idealism (DI) Effects

3. International gender equality movement3. International gender equality movement

---- From 18From 18thth century to the presentcentury to the present

---- Enshrined in international human rights treatiesEnshrined in international human rights treaties

---- Equality for women has increased in many placesEquality for women has increased in many places

Examples of Developmental Idealism (DI) EffectsExamples of Developmental Idealism (DI) Effects

4. New freedoms4. New freedoms

---- DivorceDivorce

---- Sex, cohabitation, and childbearing outside Sex, cohabitation, and childbearing outside marriagemarriage

---- SameSame--sex relations (including marriage)sex relations (including marriage)

Next Focus is Developmental Models in Albania and Bulgaria

U.N.

U.S. 9.5Italy 9.4Albania 8.0China 7.8India 6.2Pakistan 5.5Nigeria 4.7Cen Afr Rep 3.8

U.N. Albania

U.S. 9.5 9.5Italy 9.4 7.7Albania 8.0China 7.8 7.1India 6.2 3.4Pakistan 5.5 2.9Nigeria 4.7 2.6Cen Afr Rep 3.8 3.1

U.N. Albania

U.S. 9.5 9.5Italy 9.4 7.7Albania 8.0 3.1China 7.8 7.1India 6.2 3.4Pakistan 5.5 2.9Nigeria 4.7 2.6Cen Afr Rep 3.8 3.1

Implications for Albania and Bulgaria

1. Fertility?2. Marriage?3. Migration?4. Satisfaction with life?

5. How widespread is this pattern in Central and Eastern Europe?

Last Focus is Migration

1. Ideational models influence virtually everything.

2. They must influence migration.3. But migration studies provide little

attention to ideational factors.4. My hope is that this will change.

Nepal Migration Project

1. Panel study of families and neighborhoods in South Central Nepal from 2008 to 2012

2. Obtained listings of all migrants from study households

3. Interviewed all migrants wherever they have gone in the world

4. Very high response rates

Nepal Migration Project

5. Opens up new areas of migration research-- Links origins and destinations-- Permits follow up of migrants-- Permits study of return migration and

chain migration6. We are planning analyses of:

-- Effects of people ’s beliefs and values on out migration

-- Effects of migration on people ’s beliefs and values

7. And there are other possibilities

Some Ideational Migration Hypotheses

1. Strong beliefs in developmental idealism lead to higher rates of out migration.

2. Negative evaluations of one’s own country’s development lead to higher rates of out migration.

3. Strong consumption aspirations lead to higher rates of out migration.

4. High levels of commitment to the origin culture lead to lower rates of out migration.

5. Holding fatalistic beliefs leads to lower rates o f out migration.

6. Undoubtedly many others

1. Discussions of how developmental idealism works in Southeastern Europe

2. Discussions of how ideational factors influence migration in Southeastern Europe

3. Discussions of how migration in Southeast Europe affects families and individuals, including their well-being and ideas about the world

I welcome

Arland Thornton

Thank You

Arland Thornton

Thank You

Arland Thornton

Thank You