Deviations from common expected CC impactsThe Oder/Odra estuary case study
ASTRA Conference, 26-28 October 2006
Gdansk
Holger Janssen, Gerald Schernewski,
Baltic Sea Research Institute Warnemünde &EUCC – The Coastal Union Germany
In co-operation with: ARCADIS Rostock
Staatliches Amt für Umwelt und Natur Rostock
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The Oder estuary and river basin
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Characteristics Economy• Traditional branches like agriculture and fisheries in decline• Little industry • Maritime transit traffic (Harbour of Szczecin, Oder/Odra river)• Tourism most important economic sector
Gradients• Between east and west (German/Polish border)• Between coast and hinterland
Nature• Rich and diverse heritage• Eutrophication and water quality
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Characteristics Coastal protection/Flooding• Sinking coast and sea level rise• Increasing likelihood of extreme floods
Integrated Coastal Zone Management• One of two national German ICZM case studies of the Federal
Ministry of Education and Research• Case Study of UNEP-ICARM, LOICZ, UNESCO-IOC and EUCC
– The Coastal Union
River Coast Interactions River and estuary contain many
important and mostly protected ecosystems
The river is the central axis for migration and spread of species
Ostsee
Stettiner Haff
Warta
NysaKlodzka
Lausitzer Neiße
Szczecin
Swinoujscie
GewässerFließgewässerKüstenlinieStaatsgrenzen
Wroclaw
Ostrava
Odermündungsregion
AusgewiesenVorgeschlagen
AusgewiesenVorgeschlagen
Oder
Natura 2000 Gebiete
Legende
DEUTSCHLAND
POLEN
TSCHECHEI
Nationalpark Wolin, Naturpark Stettiner Haff, Naturpark Usedom, 44 Naturschutzgebiete.....
after Röttger (2006)
Poland
Germany
Ríver/Channel/Estuary
ShorelineNational border
.
Natura 2000 areas
Oder/Odra estuary region
River Oder/Odra
officialnamed
officialnamed
River Coast Interactions The River Oder/Odra is an
important traffic axis The coastal zone is the
gate for commerce, transport and tourism both with Poland and city of Berlin
Police
Oder/Odra
Kostrzyn
Frankfurt (Oder)
Eisenhüttenstadt
Fluss/Kanal
KüstenlinieStaatsgrenzen
Legende
Schifffahrtsstraße
Szczecin
Hohen-saaten
Wroclaw
Opole
Schwedt
Laus
itzer
Nei
ße
Oder-Havel-Kanal
Oder-Spree-Kanal
Swinoujscie
Kedzierzyn-Kozle
Kanal Gliwicki
Güterumschlag[t/a]
< 0,1 Mio.
0,5 Mio.
2 Mio.
10 Mio.
Eberswalde
DEUTSCHLAND
POLEN
TSCHECHEI
after Röttger (2006)
Germany
Poland
ShorelineBorderRiver transportRíver/Channel
..
.
Stettiner Haff
DEUTSCHLAND
POLEN
TSCHECHEI
Warta
Glatzer Neiße
Bóbr
Lausitzer Neiße
Bystrzyca
Kaczawa
Messstation
KüstenlinieStaatsgrenzen
Legende
Zufluss
Stickstofffracht [t/a]
Abfluss [m³/s]( )1993 -1997
5.00010.00020.00030.00040.00050.00060.000
0100
200300400600
Pommersche Bucht
70.00080.000
after Röttger (2006)
River Coast Interactions
.
Pomeranian Bay
GermanyPoland
N-load The River Oder/Odra is one of the
most important rivers of the Baltic Sea Region
• Length: 854 km• Catchment area of 118.000
km² (with more than 15 million inhabitants, intensive agriculture and a variety of industries which cause high nutrient loads in the river)
These loads dominate coastal waters and cause eutrophication
Run off
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Step 1: Survey Expected Climate Change impacts for regions like the Oder estuary region (southern Baltic Sea coast), based on former research results and literature (e.g. IPCC reports, vulnerability studies, etc.)
Rising temperatureChange in precipitationRising sea levelImpacts on vegetation, biodiversity, agriculture, health etc.
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Step 2: Selection of sectorsSelection of regionally important and climate sensitive sectors (ecological and economical)
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Step 3: Regional climateRegional climate projections, A1B (2071-2100 / 1961-1990)• e.g. REMO (by Max Planck Institute for Meteorology / Federal
Environmental Agency)• e.g. WETTREG (by CEC GmbH)
Temperature• Summer: Rising temperature about 3°C, slightly higher on the Baltic
Sea• Winter: Rising temperature about 3,5-3.8°C, nearly no days with
average temperatures under 0°CChange of precipitation:• average/year still 550mm• Summer: - 10-30%, nearly stable conditions on the coastline• Winter: + 10-20% both in the estuary region and the catchment area
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Step 4: Reg. impact assessmentStep 4: Regional impact assessment for selected sectors, partly based on ecosystem models like• for agriculture: ROTHC (Coleman et al., 1997) and IMAGE (biofuel
demand) (IMAGE team, 2001)• for forestry: GOTILWA+ (Sabaté et al., 2002) and EFISCEN
(Karjalainen et al., 2003)• for carbon storage: LPJ (Sitch et al., 2003; Thonicke et al., 2001;
Venevsky et al., 2002)• for water (hydrological): Mac-pdm (Arnell, 1999; Arnell, 2003)• for conservation: BIOMOD (Thuiller, 2003; Thuiller, 2004)
Involvement of stakeholders to identify relevant indicators
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Step 4: Reg. impact assessment
• Broad extension of vegetation period (approx. 2-4 days per decade).• Lessened crops on sandy soils possible (drought).• Loss of soil.• Increased photosynthesis of C3 plants increases crops if dryness is not limiting growth.• Decline of fungi and other humidity dependent pathogens.• Variation of climate from year to year makes adaptation of breeds difficult.• …
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Step 4: Reg. impact assessment
• Decline of fish and mussel population because of decreasing oxygen concentration (freshwater as well as Baltic Sea). Not all species are affected comparably by oxygen decrease which could cause regime shifts.
• Due to a rising water temperature single species will have a reduced reproduction.• Migration of sensitive sea species to north into cooler and deeper waters.• Warmer waters will enhance the migration process of alien fish and mussel species.• …
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Step 4: Reg. impact assessment
• Extension of vegetation period (approx. 2-4 days per decade).• Replacement of spruce by pine or broad-leafed trees.• In principal rising danger of forest fires, no significant impact expected.• Increasing attacks by pests (e.g. bark-beetles). At dry areas spruce forest dieback threatens.• …
Forestry
• Drought as an impact of Climate Change has no general influence on trees (groundwater level). • In the Oder/Odra estuary region spruce is affected by Climate Change while there is little impact on other trees. • Also an increasing risk of forest fires is not anticipated. • Furthermore higher CO2 concentration in the atmosphere will increase photosynthesis but an influence on tree growth is doubtful.
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Step 4: Reg. impact assessment
• Extended bathing season due to warmer waters in late summer and early autumn (temperature inertia of water).• Private investments in additional tourist infrastructure and attractions can be expected.• Changes in landscape and coastal zone are probable. E.g. due to sea level rise and pursuant coastal defence measures.• Public and private investments in adaptation of tourist infrastructure could become necessary at the shoreline (as a result of coastal defence). • Increased risk of algae bloom during tourism season.• …
Tourism
• As the Oder/Odra estuary is actual ly part of moderate climate zone posi tive impacts on tourism have been expected. • In addition the risk of flooding in the southern Baltic Sea because of a sea level rise seems to be controllable and land loss a minor problem. • Water quali ty for bathing wil l be no problem concerning coli form bacteria, algae bloom as an effect of eutrophication could cause a negative aspect for tourism.
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Step 4: Reg. impact assessment
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Step 4: Reg. impact assessmentCoastal Squeeze Higher precipitation during
wintertime in the river basin area raises the risk of floods by the River Oder. Together with a raised sea level and an increasing risk of storm tides the islands Usedom and Wolin get under pressure from two sides, the estuary and the sea side.
River floods transport freshwater and loads of nutrient and harmful substances into the lagoon and the bay. Impacts on water quality, eutrophication, species and algae bloom.
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Step 4: Reg. impact assessmentVegetation, biodiversity
• Dr ought as an typ ic al impact of Climate Change has only l imited influenc e (h igh gr ound water leve l) . • If ir rigation is a ffordable the vegetation will benefit from ex tended v egetation periods and r ising photosy nthesis. • Internal eutrophication in the Sz cz ecin Lagoon has s er ious effec ts on a lgae b loom in c oas tal waters with in fluenc e on beach touris m. • Impacts on biod iver sity in the Oder/Odra estuary reg ion are limited. All ec os ys tems are a lready subject of str ong anthropogenic in fluence. Ins tead of loss of b iodiv er s ity a fur ther incr eased migr ation of a lien spec ies wil l be an impac t o f Climate Change.
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Step 4: Reg. impact assessmentWater quality
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Possible impact of Climate Change in the Oder/Odra estuary:Internal eutrophication
9.4
11
8.6
8
9.3
7.9 5.8
6.8
7.7
7.4
6.57.1
2
1.8
1.3
1.1
Median concentration of phosphate [µmol PO4-P/l] in August (period 1980-91)Data: Gerrman/Polish measurement programme by LUNG and WIOSZ
Depth(m)
0123456789
05
10152025
899091 899091 899091
05
10
1 2 34
5
60510
152025
899091 899091899091 899091899091 899091899091
05
10152025
899091 899091 899091
mmol P
/m3mm
o lP/m3
1 2
4 5 6
3
Relase of phosphorus up to 400 t Phosphor from sediment during warm summer periods phosphorus release from sediment under anoxic conditions.
Step 4: Reg. impact assessment
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Plume of the River Oder/Odrain the Pomeranian Bay
Siegel et al. 2000
2.6
2.2
3.3
3
2.2
3.4 3.2
4.6
5.2
5.2
43.4
0.47
0.42
0.48
0.39 Data: LUNG (D) und WIOSZ (PL)
Median concentrations of PO4-P (µmol /l) in June (period 1980-91)
502116620075274
90501106880
11632211300610169394071
38840
30000
60000
90000
120000
196019651970197519801985199019952000 backgr.
60497306
861210336
125021542715894
13243
8537
3840
4000
8000
12000
16000
196019651970197519801985199019952000 backgr.
Pt [t/a]Pdiffus [t/a]
Nt [t/a]Ndiffus [t/a]
?
?
Loads of the River Oder/OdraDecline of intensive algae blooming during summer was observed in the last decadeHow will the future be (R&D)?
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Step 4: Reg. impact assessmentWater quality
• Changed or increased eutrophication processes are a serious impact of Climate Change on water quality in the Oder estuary region. • Eutrophication due to increased run-off and swirled up sediments has nearly no effect in this region (Eisenreich (2005)).• Internal eutrophication and changes in the regulatory chain of river-lagoon-bay might have considerable impacts on the Baltic Sea and especially on bathing in coastal and lagoon waters.• Impacts on algae blooming during tourism season, impacts on fish reproduction.
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Summary & ConclusionsRegional climate projections contain uncertainties,these uncertainties are also part of vulnerability assessments.Migration of alien species already today is a continuous process and could increase further while the loss of biodiversity should be limited as the water supply is secured due to high ground water .Reduced nutrient loads of the River Oder/Odra during summer (decreased precipitation) should increase the water quality in the Szczecin Lagoon and the Pomeranian Bay.
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Summary & ConclusionsBut the effect of internal eutrophication counteracts this reduction of nutrient loads.Impacts of Climate Change (as they can be anticipated so far) differ from region to region – e.g. differences between coast and hinterland.More research is needed.Assessment to• activate stakeholders• clarify main fields of regional Climate Change impacts and interactions
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Thank you!Holger Janssen, Gerald Schernewski
Seestrasse 1518119 Rostock
Germany
Fon: ++49 (0)381 5197-207Fax: ++49 (0)381 5197-440
[email protected]@io-warnemuende.de
http://www.ikzm-oder.de
