M Masera 30th June 2016

DG JRC's support to electricity system and market developments in the EU

Outline

q DG JRC’s role and expertise

q Support to Baltic BRELL De-synchronisation

q Potential for RES integration in the Baltics

q Support to RES Integration in Cyprus

2

1. Baltic/BEMIP power grid analysis

Objective of the study

Assess comparative options for a cost-effective, reliable and secure development of the Baltic power system to assess the needed investment in the Baltic electricity system (transmission capacity, power reserves, Back-to-Back converters) related to: Ø  Baltic de-synchronisation from Russia/Belarus and

Ø  possible synchronisation with the Continental Europe Network or with the Nordic network

Support of the integration of the Baltic States into the EU electricity system

Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan (BEMIP) 1.  Electricity market integration 2.  Interconnections 3.  Generation adequacy

Synchronisation Scenarios 1. LT-LV-EE synchronised •  no AC interconnectors with any of the neighbouring countries •  asynchronously interconnected (i.e. linked through DC interconnectors)

with the Nordic countries and Poland 2. Synchronisation with Nordic •  two new AC cables between Estonia and Finland 3. Synchronisation with Continental grid •  a) through the existing double-circuit AC line: LitPol Link 1; •  b) through two AC lines LitPol Links 1&2; •  c) through one double-circuit AC line, LitPol Link 1. New DC undersea cable

Lithuania-Poland for fast power exchange

Scenario Case Balt ic-IPS/UPS*

Baltic-Nordic Baltic-CEN

Connection FCR exchange Connection FCR exchange Connection F C R exchange

L i t P o l Link 2

LitPol DC cable

2016 Reference synchronous yes asynchronous No asynchronous No - -

2020 Reference synchronous Yes asynchronous No asynchronous No - -

2025 Reference synchronous Yes asynchronous No asynchronous No - -

2025 1a asynchronous No asynchronous No asynchronous No - -

2025 1b asynchronous No asynchronous yes asynchronous No - -

2025 2 asynchronous No synchronous yes asynchronous No - -

2025 3a asynchronous No asynchronous No synchronous Yes - -

2025 3b asynchronous No asynchronous No synchronous Yes Yes -

2025 3c asynchronous No asynchronous No synchronous Yes - Yes

2030 Reference synchronous Yes asynchronous No asynchronous No - -

2030 1a asynchronous No asynchronous No asynchronous No - -

2030 1b asynchronous No asynchronous Yes asynchronous No - -

2030 2 asynchronous No synchronous yes asynchronous No - -

2030 3a asynchronous No asynchronous No synchronous yes - -

2030 3b asynchronous No asynchronous No synchronous Yes Yes -

2030 3c asynchronous No asynchronous No synchronous Yes - Yes

*Including Kaliningrad

Scenarios: 2016, 2020, 2025 and 2030

Steady state Socio-economic analysis •  PLEXOS – DC power flow model for optimal dispatch •  optimal dispatch function – minimising generation cost •  detailed electricity transmission system of the Baltic States +

30 European countries modelled as one node per country •  one year period at hourly time step Load flow analysis •  PowerWorld – AC power flow model for supplementary modelling •  detailed electricity transmission system of the Baltic States •  for chosen scenarios from the socio-economic analysis [Dynamic analysis is out of the scope of the current study]

Modelling approach

a.   Generation costs b.   Electricity system development costs (including emergency reserves) c.   Loss of Load Expectation d.   N-1 contingency analysis Added-value (w.r.t. previous studies) •  Updated current and 2020 scenarios •  New Baltic-IPS/UPS de-synchronisation scenarios: 2025/30 •  New scenarios where Baltic is NOT synchronised with any of the neighbouring

countries, but keeps power exchange with neighbours •  Extended socio-economic analysis from the grid perspective •  New scenario (w.r.t. previous feasibility studies): Lit-Pol HVDC cable •  Techno-economic benefits of the planned Back-to-Back converters on Baltic-

IPS/UPS

Modelling approach

2. Potential for offshore wind farms: Baltic States case study

Methodology - preselection

Geo-based: GIS tools.

Intersection of acceptable thresholds in the considered selection conditions.

Methodology – electrical grid simulation

•  Steady state transmission network simulation tool

•  Each wind site is interconnected to the closest onshore substation

•  Analysis of the impact of wind penetration on line congestion

Results •  Online model:

www.europa.eu/!mY43Yg

•  Site rankings per country

3. Analysis of national energy systems: Cyprus

Technical assistance to Cyprus Ø  Assessing the current state of the transmission

and distribution electricity systems

Ø  Analysis of system security for the long term scenarios proposed by MECIT

Ø  Proposing technical solutions to allow a secure integration of high share of Renewable Energy Sources (RES)

1.   System characterisation i.  Database transmission/distribution network structure and key-

parameters ii.  RES resources

2.   Transmission grid analysis i.  Unit commitment and economic power dispatch ii.  Steady state analysis iii.  Dynamic security analysis

3.   Distribution grid analysis i.  Spatial and temporal modelling of the electrical demand and of the

distributed generation (solar photovoltaic) ii.  Analysis of distribution grid control techniques iii.  Identification of reference LV networks iv.  Evaluation of existing grid hosting capacity for PV v.  Analysis of the impact of Electric Vehicles vi.  Potential for demand response

DG JRC activities

•  Island system •  High day and season fluctuation of the load (250-950

MW) •  Very good solar resource •  Average (low) Wind resource •  Generation fleet: STEAM, CCGT, DIESEL, GT •  Current heavy dependence on fuel imports •  Low inertia •  Main fuel today: HFO, Diesel •  Main fuel in future: Nat gas •  Generation constraints for complying with emissions limits

(NOX, SO2) •  Not very flexible operation of generation system

Activity 1 – System characterisation

Unit Commitment and Economic Dispatch: Provides realistic “snapshots” of the system for Future Scenarios

These snapshots are not necessarily secure

→Are steady-state problems expected? →

→ How can we solve potential steady-state problems?

→ What are the critical cases and faults for dynamic performance?

1. UCED studiesOptimum Generation Dispatch given

Costs of electricity per generating unit (marginal cost, start-up cost)

Technical constraints Frequency Quality Defining Parameters considered

Current operational procedures

2.Load-flowstudiesExamination of steady-state

transmission bottlenecks (congestions, reactive power adequacy assessment)

3. Investigation of solutions for potential steady-state problems

4. Defining the Characteristic Case StudiesDefining the Contingency List per Characteristic Case Study

5. Determine compliance with the Frequency Quality Defining Parameters

6. Identification of conditions and metrics for compliance with the Frequency Quality Defining Parameters

7. Investigation of measures for enhancing dynamic security

→ Is the system capable of facing the critical faults?

→ Can we define constraints for compliant dynamic performance?

→What are our options?

Activity 2 – Transmission grid analysis

§  Extrapolation of results for MV grid model representing 10% of total system

§  Smart solutions for the future power system (Demand Side

Management, Electric Vehicles, reactive power provision by PV converters)

§  Grid hosting capacity for PV considering different scenarios

§  Strategies for high voltage quality operation by combining Demand response, EVs and PV

Activity 3 – Distribution grid analysis

Issue: optimal combination of on/off decisions and power levels for all

generating units across a given time horizon.

CCGT

ST

ICE

GT

PV

CSP Generation mix

Future challenge: secure operation at high RES penetration levels

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Capacity [MW]

WIND PV CSP

RES Scenario

q  Energy storage capacity

•  Pump storage for provision of PV peak shaving and ancillary services

•  Decentralised battery storages with fast response to frequency events

•  CSP with thermal storage to shift in time delivery of solar energy

q  More flexible demand

•  Demand response for water heating, cooling, desalination, EV's

•  New strategies supporting high PV share during daytime

q  More flexible thermal generation fleet

•  Investigate feasibility of more FCR provision by spinning units

•  Investigate faster start for non-spinning reserve

•  Investigate reducing minimum down time requirements for steam units

•  Investigate if minimum stable generation of steam units could be lowered

further

•  Benefits for fixed or sliding pressure operation of STEAM units

Technical solutions for more flexibility

CCGT

ST

ICE GT

PV

CSP Generation mix

Results

1. Model and analysis for optimal Unit Commitment and Economic Dispatch

2. Model and analysis for dynamic security analysis of the transmission grid

3. Analysis of the future electricity distribution system

Thank you!

ses.jrc.ec.europa.eu

Joint Research Centre EC Joint Research Centre Institute for Energy and

Transport