8/2/2019 Different Risk Analysis Measures

1/10

different risk analysis measures. Explain what each measures. What are problems &

benefits of each?

Disaster Reduction Index (DRI) > deaths

Disaster Deficit Index (DDI) > economic

Local Disasters Index (LDI) > deaths, losses, destructino

Prevalent Vulnerability Index (PVI)

Risk Management Index (RMI)

Palmer Drought Severity Index

developed by Wayne Palmer in the 1960s

most effective in determining long-term drought

excess rain level expressed with plus (+) figures

standardized to local climate

not as good for short term forecasts

doesnt calculate the amount of water that is locked up in snow

8/2/2019 Different Risk Analysis Measures

2/10

How else can we measure/ predict drought

short term : Crop Moisture Index (CMI)

o responds more rapidly

o designed to indicate normal conditions at the beginning and end of the

growing season

o more weight on recent weeks

Other indices

o Percent of Normal: a simple calculation well suited to the needs of TV

weathercasters and general audiences.

o Standardized Precipitation Index: The SPI is an index based on the

probability of precipitation for any time scale.

o Surface Water Supply Index: The SWSI is designed to complement the

Palmer in the state of Colorado, where mountain snowpack is a key element of

water supply; calculated by river basin, based on snowpack, streamflow,precipitation, and reservoir storage.

8/2/2019 Different Risk Analysis Measures

3/10

o Reclamation Drought Index: Like the SWSI, the RDI is calculated at

the river basin level, incorporating temperature as well as precipitation,

snowpack, streamflow, and reservoir levels as input.

o Deciles: Groups monthly precipitation occurrences into deciles so that,

by definition, much lower than normal weather cannot occur more oftenthan 20% of the time.

http://www.drought.noaa.gov/palmer.html

http://www.drought.unl.edu/whatis/indices.htm#deciles

Risk and Risk Assessment1. What is the relationship between the concept of vulnerability and risk?

-Vulnerability: the geographic conditions that increase the susceptibility of a

community to a hazard or to the impacts of a hazard event

-Risk: the probability of a hazard event causing harmful consequences (expected

losses in terms of death, injuries, property damage, economy and environment)

-higher risk for people who are more vulnerable

-factors aggravate vulnerability

-reduce vulnerability=reduce poverty

-proportional, direct relationship (higher the vulnerability, higher the risk)

2. What are the differences between indirect and direct effects of hazards?

-direct effects: deaths caused during the cyclone, such as when a tree or a building

falls on a person

-indirect effects: consequences that occur after the event (periods that are difficult to

define with very much precision

-short-term effect: deaths resulting from respiratory, infectious or parasitic diseases

that start to spread as a result of the tropical cyclones

-medium-term effect: deaths resulting from the deterioration of living conditions, a

deterioration of basic services that affect heath standards, or factors that increase

peoples vulnerability, such as poverty and malnutrition

http://www.drought.noaa.gov/palmer.htmlhttp://www.drought.unl.edu/whatis/indices.htm#decileshttp://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2011/02/15/risk-and-risk-assessment/http://www.drought.noaa.gov/palmer.htmlhttp://www.drought.unl.edu/whatis/indices.htm#decileshttp://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2011/02/15/risk-and-risk-assessment/

8/2/2019 Different Risk Analysis Measures

4/10

3. Why do people underestimate the probability of a hazard event? What

effect does that have?

-LEDCs: certain individuals or companies are spared the expense or effort of dealing

with the remedies required

-people dont have necessary long-term data and information to access the risk

accurately

-people in the hazard-prone areas: the risk may be known, but it is psychologically

suppressed so that the benefits of living in an area are not challenged >

psychological denial of the risk

-they become more vulnerable as a result of misjudging and under-estimating

4. What helps and hinders a persons perception of risk?

-experience: the more experience of environmental hazards, the greater the

adjustment to the hazard

-material well-being: those who are better off have more choice

-personality: is the person a leader or a follower, a risk-taker or a risk-minimizer?

-response: 1. do nothing and accept the hazard; 2. adjust to the situation of living in a

hazardous environment; 3. leave the area

VULNERABILITY.

02FE B2011Leave a Comment

4. Examine your case study. Who is vulnerable and why?

Europe drought 2003

small countries of EU-have less powerful economies

old people/children (infants)-more vulnerable to the weather conditions

workers-they have to be outside for a long time under the heatwave

water supply

electricity

farmers: drop in harvest Case Study

http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2011/02/02/vulnerability/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2011/02/02/vulnerability/#respondhttp://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2011/01/27/drought-what-happened-in-europe-2003/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2011/02/02/vulnerability/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2011/02/02/vulnerability/#respondhttp://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2011/01/27/drought-what-happened-in-europe-2003/

8/2/2019 Different Risk Analysis Measures

5/10

HAZARDS!

http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2011/01/31/hazards/http://geojihyun.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/magnitude.jpghttp://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2011/01/31/hazards/

8/2/2019 Different Risk Analysis Measures

6/10

18JA N2011Leave a Comment

STABLE

http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2011/01/18/stable-unstable-air/#respondhttp://geojihyun.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/duration.jpghttp://geojihyun.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/areal-extent.jpghttp://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2011/01/18/stable-unstable-air/#respond

8/2/2019 Different Risk Analysis Measures

7/10

High pressure causes sinking, warming, and dry air

ELR=environmental lapse rate (6C per 1000 meter, varies)

DAR=dry adiabatic lapse rate (10C per 1000 meter)

ELRDAR temp

Air mass drops (doesnt continue to increase)

Hazard: drought

UNSTABLE

Low pressure causes rising, cooling, and wet air

ELR>DAR=unstable

ELR temp

8/2/2019 Different Risk Analysis Measures

8/10

Conservation

07DE C2010Leave a Comment

by11kimjiin Uncategorized

One Strategy

http://projects.wri.org/sd-pams-database/pakistan/national-conservation-

strategy

Pakistan: National Conservation Strategy

Conserving natural resources

measures to control and limit pollution

The incorporation and integration of environmental and sustainable

development themes into educational curricula and in the media

Negative sides: costs of using education and media

Oil and PEAK oil

26NO V2010Leave a Comment

by11kimjiin Uncategorized

One conflict over oil-who-background-current status

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/7190

http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2010/12/07/conservation/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2010/12/07/conservation/#respondhttp://geojihyun.wordpress.com/author/11kimji/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/author/11kimji/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/author/11kimji/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/category/uncategorized/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/category/uncategorized/http://projects.wri.org/sd-pams-database/pakistan/national-conservation-strategyhttp://projects.wri.org/sd-pams-database/pakistan/national-conservation-strategyhttp://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2010/11/26/oil-and-peak-oil/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2010/11/26/oil-and-peak-oil/#respondhttp://geojihyun.wordpress.com/author/11kimji/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/author/11kimji/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/author/11kimji/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/category/uncategorized/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/category/uncategorized/http://www.energybulletin.net/node/7190http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2010/12/07/conservation/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2010/12/07/conservation/#respondhttp://geojihyun.wordpress.com/author/11kimji/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/category/uncategorized/http://projects.wri.org/sd-pams-database/pakistan/national-conservation-strategyhttp://projects.wri.org/sd-pams-database/pakistan/national-conservation-strategyhttp://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2010/11/26/oil-and-peak-oil/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2010/11/26/oil-and-peak-oil/#respondhttp://geojihyun.wordpress.com/author/11kimji/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/category/uncategorized/http://www.energybulletin.net/node/7190

8/2/2019 Different Risk Analysis Measures

9/10

US and China

As oil prices breach $60 a barrel and pessimists warn that the world could be as little

as 10 years away from a first-order resources crisis, Chinas largest oil company,

CNOOC, has launched a $18.5 billion bid for one of the USs juiciest medium-sized oil

companies, Unocal.

Good relationship. No wars.

Find 1 piece of information about peak oil-who said and significance

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/commentary/jeff-rubins-

smaller-world/even-the-international-energy-agency-expects-peak-oil-

now/article1810104/

Even the International Energy Agency expects

peak oil now!

The optimism typically found in the International Energy Agencys annualWorld

Energy Outlookreport is strangely missing this year. Instead, the IEA is taking a far

more sober perspective on the worlds oil-consuming future due to our ever-greater

reliance on costly unconventional oil sources.

Growth Theories

23NO V2010Leave a Comment

by11kimjiin Uncategorized

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/7190http://www.energybulletin.net/node/7190http://www.energybulletin.net/node/7190http://www.energybulletin.net/node/7190http://www.energybulletin.net/node/7190http://www.energybulletin.net/node/7190http://www.energybulletin.net/node/7190http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/commentary/jeff-rubins-smaller-world/even-the-international-energy-agency-expects-peak-oil-now/article1810104/http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/commentary/jeff-rubins-smaller-world/even-the-international-energy-agency-expects-peak-oil-now/article1810104/http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/commentary/jeff-rubins-smaller-world/even-the-international-energy-agency-expects-peak-oil-now/article1810104/http://www.iea.org/http://www.iea.org/http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2010/11/23/growth-theories/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2010/11/23/growth-theories/#respondhttp://geojihyun.wordpress.com/author/11kimji/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/author/11kimji/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/author/11kimji/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/category/uncategorized/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/category/uncategorized/http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/commentary/jeff-rubins-smaller-world/even-the-international-energy-agency-expects-peak-oil-now/article1810104/http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/commentary/jeff-rubins-smaller-world/even-the-international-energy-agency-expects-peak-oil-now/article1810104/http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/commentary/jeff-rubins-smaller-world/even-the-international-energy-agency-expects-peak-oil-now/article1810104/http://www.iea.org/http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2010/11/23/growth-theories/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2010/11/23/growth-theories/#respondhttp://geojihyun.wordpress.com/author/11kimji/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/category/uncategorized/

8/2/2019 Different Risk Analysis Measures

10/10

PREVIOUS Older Entries

Blogroll

Class Blog

Documentation

Plugins

Suggest Ideas

Support Forum

Themes

WordPress Blog

WordPress Planet

http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/page/2/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/page/2/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/page/2/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/page/2/http://mrs.welbes.net/http://codex.wordpress.org/http://wordpress.org/extend/plugins/http://wordpress.org/extend/ideas/http://wordpress.org/support/http://wordpress.org/extend/themes/http://wordpress.org/news/http://planet.wordpress.org/http://geojihyun.files.wordpress.com/2010/11/abc.pnghttp://geojihyun.wordpress.com/page/2/http://mrs.welbes.net/http://codex.wordpress.org/http://wordpress.org/extend/plugins/http://wordpress.org/extend/ideas/http://wordpress.org/support/http://wordpress.org/extend/themes/http://wordpress.org/news/http://planet.wordpress.org/