Date post: | 21-Feb-2017 |
Category: |
Economy & Finance |
Upload: | nordnet-norge |
View: | 148 times |
Download: | 3 times |
Digital Disruption - investeringsuniverset
til DNB Nordic Technology
Erling H. Kise
Digital disruption
Erling H Kise
DNB Nordic Technology
3
Something interesting is happening…
Uber, the world’s largest taxi company, owns no vehicles. Facebook, the world’s most popular media owner, creates
no content. Alibaba, the most valuable retailer, has no inventory. And Airbnb, the world’s largest accommodation
provider, owns no real estate.
Source: Techcrunch
4
Tre internett-faser
1. Da internett lå i skuffen: 1990 - 2007
Fast internett hastighet: 0.5 - 2 Mb/s Mobilt internett hastighet: 56 -114 Kb/s
5
2. Da internett ble mobilt: 2007 - 2015
Fast internett hastighet: 10 - 100 Mb/s Mobilt internett hastighet: 5 – 40 Mb/s
Tre internett-faser
6
7
8
9
10
11
Men noen steder har tiden stått stille….
12
Taxi i Madrid – november 2015
13
12. etasje i Bjørvika – november 2015
14
15
Hvor ble det av annonseinntektene til avisene?
16Source: Bloomberg Intelligence
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Newspaper Magazine
Omsetning USD mill
….flyttet seg med «eyeballs»
17
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Selskap 1 Selskap 2
Omsetning USD mill
18Source: Bloomberg Intelligence
÷ NOK 254 mrd+ NOK 238 mrd
To selskaper har tatt en kvart trillion fra ca 3000 aviser i USA….
19
We’ve only just begun…
20
We’ve only just begun…
Hey, don’t forget about me!I have USD 150 Bn net cash
on my balance sheet
21
We’ve only just begun…
Hey, don’t forget about me!I have NOK 1.200 Bn cash
on my balance sheet
22
We’ve only just begun…
Hey, don’t forget about me!I have “et norsk statsbudsjett” cash
on my balance sheet
23
3. Internett blir “altoverskyggende”: 2016
Fast internett hastighet: 0.5 - 1 Gb/s Mobilt internett hastighet: 3-500 Mb/s
Tre internett-faser
Eksponensiell utvikling i innovasjon
Fintech challenging banksFragmentation of TV
Information SecurityInternet of things
Services moving into the cloudInternet for all
Global Population
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000
Internet Population
Fintech challenging banksFragmentation of TV
Information SecurityInternet of things
Services moving into the cloudInternet for all
Global Population
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000
Internet Population
27
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
28
29
30
It’s a match
31
HATT
32
Internet of things og Machine learning i medisinsk bruk
33
Artificial Intelligence i home automation
34
Artificial Intelligence i selvkjørende biler
35Source: Statstics Norway
36
37
The future of TV is artificial intelligence
38
YouTube er allerede den største TV-kanalen for unge mennesker i USA
39Source: Statstics Norway
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
3934
26
11
US monthly views (mill)
PewDiePie – 40 mill subscribers
Ungdom i Norge bruker mer tid på internett enn TV
40Source: Statstics Norway
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Newspaper
TV
TV (16-25)
Radio
Books
Internet
Daily time spent (mins)
41
Peer to peer betaling
VENMO: “We’ve got two competitors - Facebook and cash.”
42
Enorme skala- og globale nettverkseffekter
1.5 Bn 1.2 Bn 0.8 Bn
43
DNB Nordic Technology
ODIN Eiendom B
Fondsfinans Global Helse
ODIN Sverige A
Delphi Nordic
ODIN Sverige B
DNB Health Care
Pareto Nordic Return B
DNB Grønt Norden
DNB Norden (III)
Landkreditt Kina
Carnegie Medical
ODIN Finland D
Handelsbanken Norge
Delphi Europe
Pareto Investment Fund C
Danske Invest Horisont Aksje
Fondsfinans Norge
Carnegie Aksje Norden
Carnegie Worldwide Etisk
ODIN Finland C
Pareto Global C
Eika Norden
ODIN Global A
Storebrand Spar 2040
ODIN Global B
Nordea Global High Yield NOK
Storebrand Global Indeks I
DNB Asia
Danske Invest Norge I
KLP AksjeGlobal indeks 1 A
Pareto Global B
SKAGEN Kon-Tiki A
Storebrand Norge I
Pareto Global A
Nordea Norge Verdi
DNB Global (III)
Eika Balansert
Storebrand Global Obligasjon
Carnegie Aksje Norge
Alfred Berg Nordic Best Selection
Storebrand PensjonSpar
Nordea Kapital
Alfred Berg Humanfond
DNB Norge (IV)
Carnegie Multifond
PLUSS Europa Aksje (Fondsforvaltning)
ODIN Europa A
DNB Lang Obligasjon 20
DNB Norge Selektiv (II)
16.4 %
13.5 %13.2 %
12.3 %12.1 %12.1 %11.8 %
5.3 %
Best blant norskregistrerte fond siste 10 år
Kilde: Morningstar. Norskregistrerte fond per Januar 2016 – blant 357 norskregistrerte fond 44
Gjennomsnittlig 10 års avkastning - norskregistrerte fond
Best blant globale teknologifond
Kilde: Morningstar. Globale teknologifond per Januar 2016 – blant 57 tech-fond45
Gjennomsnittlig 10 års avkastning - globale teknologifond
Nordic Technology
JPMorgan Funds - Europe Technology Fund A (dist) - GBP
JPM Funds - Europe Technology Fund A (dist) - EUR
JPMorgan Funds - Europe Technology Fund A (acc) - EUR
JPMorgan Funds - Europe Technology Fund A (dist) - EUR
Henderson Horizon Fund - Global Technology Fund A1 USD Inc
Franklin Technology Fund W(acc)USD
Henderson Horizon Fund - Global Technology Fund A2 GBP Acc
Henderson Horizon Fund - Global Technology Fund A2 USD Acc
Franklin Technology Fund A(acc)USD
JPMorgan Funds - Europe Technology Fund D (acc) - EUR
Fidelity Funds - Global Technology Fund A-EUR
Franklin Technology Fund N(acc)USD
Franklin Technology Fund N(acc)EUR
Franklin Technology Fund B(acc)USD
Polar Capital Global Tech Fund
Lannebo Vision
Öhman Global Growth
Aberdeen Global - Technology Equity Fund A2
JPMorgan Funds - US Technology Fund A (dist) - GBP
ACMBernstein SICAV International Technology Portfolio A
JPMorgan Funds - US Technology Fund A (acc) - USD
JPMorgan Funds - US Technology Fund A (dist) - USD
JPM Funds - US Technology Fund A (dist) - USD
NN (L) Information Technology - P Dis USD
NN (L) Information Technology - P Cap USD
SEB Teknologifond NOK
UBS (Lux) Equity Fund - Global Multi Tech (USD) Q-acc
Parvest Equity World Technology Classic-Capitalisation
NN (L) Information Technology - X Cap USD
UBS (Lux) Equity Fund - Global Multi Tech (USD) P-acc
JPMorgan Funds - US Technology Fund D (acc) - USD
Invesco Global Technology Fund C
Invesco Global Technology Fund A
BlackRock Global Funds - World Technology Fund A2 USD
Invesco Global Technology Fund B
16.4 %
10.6 %10.5 %10.5 %10.5 %10.1 %10.1 %10.0 %10.0 %9.9 %9.4 %9.1 %9.0 %9.0 %8.4 %8.4 %8.2 %8.2 %
7.5 %7.5 %7.4 %7.4 %7.4 %7.4 %7.3 %7.3 %7.0 %6.8 %6.8 %6.7 %6.4 %6.3 %6.2 %5.7 %5.6 %4.6 %
DNB Nordic Technology
BlackRock Swiss Small & MidCap Fund A2 CHF
PineBridge Global Funds - India Equity Fund Y
Franklin Biotechnology Discovery Fund W(acc)USD
Franklin Biotechnology Discovery Fund A(acc)USD
Standard Life Investments Global SICAV China Equities Class A Acc
ODIN Eiendom A
ODIN Eiendom D
UBS (Lux) Equity Fund - Greater China (USD) Q-acc
Fidelity Funds - Thailand Fund A-USD
Allianz Thailand Equity A USD
Fondsfinans Global Helse
NN (L) Food & Beverages - P Dis USD
First State Asian Equity Plus Fund Class I (Distributing) USD
ODIN Eiendom C
First State Asian Equity Plus Fund Class I (Accumulation) USD
Franklin India Fund W(acc)USD
MFS® Meridian Funds - European Smaller Companies Fund Class W1 USD Acc
Franklin India Fund W(acc)GBP
Franklin India Fund W(acc)EUR
ODIN Sverige B
SEB European Equity Small Caps Fund D
MFS® Meridian Funds - European Smaller Companies Fund Class A1 EUR Acc
Allianz China Equity A USD
Franklin India Fund A(acc)USD
Morgan Stanley Investment Funds US Advantage I
Fidelity Funds - China Focus Fund A-USD
HSBC Global Investment Funds - Asia ex Japan Equity Smaller Companies Class AC
JPMorgan Funds - Global Healthcare Fund D (acc) - USD
Franklin India Fund A(Ydis)GBP
Robeco Chinese Equities Class D EUR Acc
Invesco Funds - Invesco Greater China Equity Fund A
Schroder International Selection Fund Swiss Small & Mid-Cap Equity B Acc
Morgan Stanley Investment Funds Global Brands Fund I Acc
Carnegie Sverigefond
Brown Advisory US Equity Growth $ B
Franklin India Fund N(acc)USD
Aberdeen Global - Indian Equity Fund A2
Morgan Stanley Investment Funds US Advantage A
Templeton Global Total Return Fund W(Mdis)USD
Templeton Global Total Return Fund W(acc)USD
Invesco Korean Equity Fund A Inc
Templeton Global Total Return Fund W(Mdis)EUR
AXA World Funds Global Emerging Markets Bonds F Capitalisation USD
Henderson Gartmore Fund Pan European Smaller Companies R€ Dist
AXA World Funds Global Emerging Markets Bonds F Distribution USD
Schroder International Selection Fund Hong Kong Equity B Acc
Amundi Funds Equity Greater China AU-C Class
Amundi Funds Equity Greater China AU-D Class
Allianz Europe Equity Growth AT EUR
16.4 %15.7 %
14.9 %14.2 % 13.9 %
10.5 %
Best blant 11.517 fond på Morningstar
Kilde: Morningstar. Globale teknologifond per januar 2016 – blant 11.517 fond på Morningstar 46
Gjennomsnittlig 10 års avkastning - alle fond registrert på Morningstar
47
Som kjent – det er vanskelig å spå fremtiden
48
«Netflix is like the Albanian army going to take over the world»
Jeff Bewkes – TIME Warner
Som kjent – det er vanskelig å spå fremtiden
49
De neste 10 år vil bli mer transformative enn de
forrige 30 år
50
Takk for oppmerksomheten
DNB Nordic Technology