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Direct effects of climate change on plants in Hungary
Eszter Erdei, J. Bobvos**, T. Hardy*, E. Jozsa*, A. Paldy*
* Natl. Institute of Environmental Health, Natl. Centre for Public Health, Budapest, Hungary
**Metropolitan Institute of State Public Health Service, Budapest
Aim of the studyTo assess the impact of climate variability
on the production of pollen grains and
mould spores in Budapest, Hungary
• To examine changes in aeroallergen
abundance related to climatic conditions
• To give descriptions of the characteristics
of pollen and spore seasons during
longer time period
The yearly Taverage in the last 100 years of Hungary (°C)
Methods• Pollen and spore database: 32 different
allergenic pollen grains and 2 mould spores and other spores are recorded continuously with standardized method (Burkard 7-day volumetric trap) on daily basis by Hungarian Aerobiological Network
2 traps in Budapest (average pg/m3 was used), N=4018 observations!
• Weather database: collected by online air pollution monitoring stations of the Metropolitan Institute of State Public Health Service, Budapest
Consolidated daily aeroallergen countsaeroallergen counts into 3 groups:•spring trees (Alnus, Corylus, Betula, Fraxinus, Populus, Carpinus etc.)•grasses and summer-autumn weeds (Poaceae, Ambrosia, Artemisia, Chenopodiacea, ect.)•mold spores (Alternaria, Cladosporium, other spores, sum)
Meteorological factorsMeteorological factors:
•temperature (daily min, max, range, 24-hour average)•humidity (RH %)•sunshine intensity (kW/hour)•barometric pressure (hPa)•windspeed (km/hour)
• Agrometeorological parameter: total heatsums („growing degree days”) were used including negative T values calculated from 1st January of every study year till the date of the 1% of the total yearly catch of the certain allergen species;-relative percentages of the yearly sums (separately for the studied years) were compared to the starting dates of the pollen seasons (retrospective method, 1% of the total yearly catch) for 8 allergenic pollen produced plant species and the total mould spores
Variations of aeroallergen concentrations in Budapest
1992-2002
YY
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
Mea
n
300
200
100
0
PTREE
PGRASS
ALT
YY
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
Mea
n
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
CLA
EGY
Linear trends of aeroallergen concentrations during
the 11-years-long study periodß CI min CI max
PTREE** 13,84 11,86 15,82
PGRASS** 11,28 9,81 12,75
ALT -1,24 -2,13 -0,346
CLADO 12,30 -1,95 26,55
OS** 257,44 212,94 301,94
Average pollen concentrations by years and trends in
BudapestSpring blooming trees
(birch, ash)Grasses and ragweed
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 2001 2002
birch
ash
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 2001 2002
ragweed
grasses
Variability of T24 and starting dates of birch pollen seasons
0
1
2
3
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
20
21358365366365366364366365365365366N =
YY
20022001200019991998199719961995199419931992
95%
CI T
EMPM
AX
22
20
18
16
14
12
Variability of Tmin and starting dates of ragweed pollen
seasons
0
1
2
3
7.18
7.20
7.22
7.24
7.26
7.28
7.30 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.7 8.9 8.11
8.13
8.15
8.17
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
20
21358365366365366364366365365365366N =
YY
20022001200019991998199719961995199419931992
95%
CI T
EMPM
IN
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
Percentages of total heatsum values (±SD) at the starting dates of
pollination seasons of 8 allergenic plant species and mould
101010101010101010N =
FUNGAMBPOAQUERPLATBETCARPFRAXPOP
80
60
40
20
0
-20
20,00
Variabilities of heatsum values related to birch pollination period’s starting
dates in Budapest
4,00
6,00
8,00
10,00
12,00
.02.
26
.03.
01
.03.
05
.03.
09
.03.
13
.03.
17
.03.
21
.03.
25
.03.
29
.04.
02
.04.
06
.04.
10
.04.
14
.04.
18
.04.
22
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
20
21
Variabilities of heatsum values related to ragweed pollination period’s
starting dates
56,00
61,00
66,00
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
20
21
Morbidity data of rhinitis allergica patients in Hungary
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000
1990 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Num
ber o
f patie
nts
Forrás: Országos Korányi TBC és Pulmonológiai Intézet
Number of hospitalized asthmatic patients in Hungary
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000
Num
ber o
f patie
nts
Forrás: Országos Korányi TBC és Pulmonológiai Intézet
Conclusions• Increased production of aeroallergens
during study period in Budapest - direct health impact of climate variability.
• Starts of pollen seasons varied remarkably; associations with T24 and Tmin.
• The abundance of the most allergenic pollen types is enhanced moderately during the study period.
• Prediction can be made using relative heatsum values for starting dates of pollen seasons and fungi spore production.
Acknowledgement
Special thank goes to:• Tamás Bodorics for agrometeorological
advices
• This work was supported by the Hungarian National Environmental Health Action Programme (NEHAP)