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BioBased Products

- Markets & Projections -

Dirk Carrez, Clever Consult

JRC – 17/10/2013

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Componentsof a bio-based economy

Biobased

Economy

Chemicals

(from biobased

platforms)

Fuels

(ethanol, biodiesel,

and higher value

alcohols)

Biopolymers

(PDO, PLA, PHAs)

Other Bioproducts

(building materials, etc.)

Consumer Goods

(pharmaceuticals, flavorings,

fragrances, food ingredients)

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Key Markets for Biobased Chemicals

� Ethanol: Platform for ethylene chemistry (PE, MEG-PET and many others)

� MEG: Monomer for partly biobased PET (rigid packaging, bottles, fibers) or as antifreeze, cooling or heat transfer agents

� 1,2 PDO: Monomer for polyesters, antifreeze, pharma-formulations, dispersant, ...

� 1,3 PDO: Monomer for polymers (PTT, Co-Polyesters, …), or (chemically transformed) use in formulations (adhesives, coatings,

antifreeze, ...)

� Lactic acid: Monomer for polyesters (e.g. PLA), or (chemically transformed) use for solvents, in formulations (adhesives, coatings,

...) or to produce acrylic acid

� Acrylic acid: Monomer for polymers (PMMA, coating, adhesives, ...)

� Epichlorohydrine ECH: Monomer mainly for epoxides (polymers, coating)

� Succinic Acid: Monomer for polyesters (e.g. PBS), for deicing, or in chemical syntheses (e.g. to produce BDO)

� (1,4) BDO: Monomer for polyesters (e.g. PBT, PBAT) or PUR or as chemical, e.g. to produce solvent (THF)

� Bio-Isoprene: Use in EPDM rubbers (car seals, insulation, roofs, ...)

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Major Bio-Investments 2010 - 2015

North America

� BioAmber: 40 kt SucAc &

BDO (2014)

� Myriant: 30 kt SucAc (2013)

� ADM: 100 kt Propylene

Glycol (2010)

Europe

� Grupo M&G / Genomatica: 20 kt BDO (I, 2013)

� Novamont-Versalis: 350 kt / 500 m€ Matrica

Biorefinery (I, 2016)

� BASF-PURAC: 10-50 kt SucAc (ES, 2013)

Brazil

� Braskem: 30-50 kt PP (2014)

� Dow-Mitsui: 350 kt Ethylene (2014)

� JBF India: 500 kt MEG (2015)

Asia

� NatureWorks: 140 kt PLA / 200 m$ (Thailand, 2015)

� PURAC: 75 kt (Di-)Lactide (Thailand 2012)

� Greencol: 100 kt MEG (2011, Taiwan)

� Solvay Vinythai: 100 kt ECH Epichlorohydrin (China 2014)

� Another 3-400 kt ECH in China planned

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� Bioethanol producers: ADM, Abengoa, BP, Bunge, Cargill, Südzucker, ...

� Biotech industry: enzyme producers (e.g. Novozymes), DSM, DuPont (Danisco), Galactic, Global BioChem,

Purac (CSM), Roquette, ...

� Chemical industry: Arkema, BASF, Braskem, Clariant, Dow, DSM, DuPont, Evonik, Mitsui, Mitsubishi, PTT

Global Chemical, Samsung Chemicals, SK Chemicals, Solvay

� Polymer manufacturers: Arkema, BASF, Braskem, Dow, DSM, DuPont, Lanxess, Mitsui, Mitsubishi, PTT,

Solvay, Toray

� Polymer industry: Indorama, JBF Industries, Reliance, Teijin

� Major users: Coca-Cola, Danone, Heinz, Toyota

� Innovative SMEs: Avantium, BioAmber, Genomatica, Gevo, Novamont, Metabolix, Myriant, NatureWorks,

Virent

Major Players in Biobased Chemistry

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Major Trends in Biobased Chemicals

� First wave: Biotech processes to produce vitamines and amino acids - (since 80ies, high growth, ongoing)

� Second wave: First generation bioplastics such as PLA, starch-based materials or PHA - (since 15 y, significant growth,

ongoing)

� Third wave: Drop-in bioplastics using BioEthanol and Glycerol as platforms leading to PE, PP, PET and Epoxides via

Ethylene, MEG and ECH - (since few years, very high growth)

� New wave: Development of biobased platform chemicals for polymer and non-polymer applications, especially

Ethylene, MEG, Lactic Acid, 1,3 PDO, 1,2 Propylene Glycol, ECH, Succinic Acid, 1,4 BDO - (starting)

� Expected next waves: Sourcing from non-food biomass (cellulosics, incl. paper), lignin-based chemistry, biorefineries,

catalyst chemistry (metathesis), thermo-chemistry and use of crackers (incl. biogas based CH4 chemistry)

� Technology push by biotechnology and innovative chemistry (R&D funds)

� Demand driven by major consumer companies (food, automotive, ...)

� Drop-in polymers (PE, PET) and green platform chemicals with great perspectives

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Biomass-derived building blocks

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EU RRM WG: Selected Biobased Chemicals

Name of chemicals

Market 2010 petroleum and biobased (Kt)

Forecast total Market 2020 (Kt)

Forecast market 2020 biobased (Kt)

Forecast market share biobased 2020 (%)

Succinic acid P: 35

B: 2,5

2,000 2,000 100

1-3 Propanediol P: 0

B: 45

1,400 1,400 100

Epichlorohydrine P: 1,100

B:100

1,300 Up to 700 Up to 50

Acrylic acid P: 4,500

B: pilots

4,500 450 10

Isoprene P: 770

B: pilot

450? Up to 50

EU Renewable Raw Material (& ERRMA) WG for DG Enterprise, July 2010

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Titel

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10-2012

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Biobased commodity plastics

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Coca-Cola: Biobased MEG Production (bPET)

Source: Klaus Stadler, Coca-Cola, European Bioplastics Conference, 7. November 2012

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Biobased plastics – Overviewfrom Plastemart.com (2012)

• Bioplastics market will reach 2,8 billion USD in 2018 (� average annual growth rate 17,8 %)

• Production volume will be 2,000,000 tons in 2018 (� 4x production volume of 2007)

• Today, biodegradable plastics dominate the market (92% share), but non-biodegradable biobased plastics will increase market share (from 8% in 2010 to 47% by 2018)

• Applications: 1. bags & sacks2. Loose-fill ranks3. Packaging and films4. Automotive & electronic industries5. Catering & hygiene products, textile, etc.

• Drivers: – consumer preference for environmental sustainable products– improved performance of bioplastics relative to traditional plastics– Introduction of commodity plastics produced from biobased sources– Lower process and increased competitiveness due to technical progress in production and growing

production capacity

�Will know biggest growth

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EU RRM WG 'Bio-Lubricants' Forecast 2020

1) Great uncertainties: Year 2008 ≈ 4,4 Mt – drastic decrease in year of world wide crisis in 20092) Based on European Biolubricants Markets (Frost & Sullivan, 2007): Forecasts for Europe 2003-20133) Extrapolation of the forecast of Frost & Sullivan 2007, based on the mean growth ratio of 2003 to 20104) Depending on the concrete application, much higher market shares will be possible, f.e. for transformer oils

product group application areamarket volumeEurope total 1)

[t]

market volume "Bio"

currently (2008) 2)

[t]

market share "Bio"

currently (2008) 2)

[%]

market volume "Bio"20203)

low legislation level[t]

market volume"Bio"

20203)

high legislation level[t]

market share "Bio" 3)

2020[%]

Biolubricants = Hydraulic Fluids 650.000 68.000 10,5 155.000 230.000 25 - 35

Biodegradable and / or Chainsaw Lubricants 50.000 29.000 58,0 37.000 40.000 75 - 80

Biobased Lubricants Mould Release Agents 100.000 9.000 9,0 15.000 30.000 15 – 30

Other oils: 3.600.000 31.000 0,9 70.000 120.000 2 – 44)

— Metal Working Fluids

— Industrial gear oils

— Greases

— Motor & Automotive Gear Oils

— Transformer oils

TOTAL 4.400.000 137.000 3,1 277.000 420.000 6,3

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Ethanol and biodiesel production(2000-2010)

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Global biofuel production(2000-2010)

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Biofuels productionTop 15 Countries and EU total (2010)