Disaster Risk Reduction & Climate Adaptation
Disaster Risk Reduction & Climate Adaptation
Quantifying the BenefitsQuantifying the Benefits
www.climate-transitions.orgwww.i-s-e-t.org
Conceptual Starting PointConceptual Starting Point
Adaptation is not “coping” – in well adapted systems people and the environmental and other features they value are “doing well”
“Doing well” as variability and extreme events increase with climate change will require effective strategies for disaster risk reduction Weather related events already account for 70% of
disasters Disasters are a major factor contributing to endemic
poverty in many parts of the world.
Adaptation is not “coping” – in well adapted systems people and the environmental and other features they value are “doing well”
“Doing well” as variability and extreme events increase with climate change will require effective strategies for disaster risk reduction Weather related events already account for 70% of
disasters Disasters are a major factor contributing to endemic
poverty in many parts of the world.
The Practical ChallengeThe Practical Challenge
The conceptual part is easy
Translating concepts to action isn’t
Practical Methodologies are Essential
“Buzzwords” abound -- but what does DRR or “adaptation” mean?
The Risk to Resilience ProjectThe Risk to Resilience Project
Case Studies Rawlpindi, Pakistan Rohini River, U.P. Bagmati, Nepal-Bihar
Collaboration ISET ISET-Nepal IIASA KCL WII GEAG PIEDAR
Case Studies Rawlpindi, Pakistan Rohini River, U.P. Bagmati, Nepal-Bihar
Collaboration ISET ISET-Nepal IIASA KCL WII GEAG PIEDAR
The MethodologyThe Methodology Shared Learning Dialogues (SLDs) to translate climate
change projections into locally meaningful terms Detailed vulnerability analyses Identification of DRR options through SLDs Qualitative identification of major cost and benefit areas
through transects, SLDs, secondary data, etc… Detailed survey of site characteristics, assets, etc… Downscaling of Climate Change Scenarios Hydrologic modeling to identify impacts Backward and forward looking Cost-Benefit analysis
Shared Learning Dialogues (SLDs) to translate climate change projections into locally meaningful terms
Detailed vulnerability analyses Identification of DRR options through SLDs Qualitative identification of major cost and benefit areas
through transects, SLDs, secondary data, etc… Detailed survey of site characteristics, assets, etc… Downscaling of Climate Change Scenarios Hydrologic modeling to identify impacts Backward and forward looking Cost-Benefit analysis
Learning
Local ExperienceScientific Knowledge
SharedLearning Act
Monitor, document & reflect
Monitor, document& reflect
Monitor, document& reflectAct
Act
Adapted from Lewin 1946: “Action research and minority problems”
SharedLearning
Shared Learning
Time
Shared Learning ProcessShared Learning Process
Sample Quantitative ResultsSample Quantitative Results
Cost Benefit Results @ 10% discount rate Approximate C/B R atio
Climate Change
Uttar Pradesh Flood Management Embankment Construction (with externalities included – without about 4) 1 Declines? Embankment Maintenance 2 Robust Distributed mix of community-based interventions 2.5 Increases
Uttar Pradesh Drought Management Groundwater Ir rigation (r isk reduction alone) 1.6 Increases (2) Insurance 2 Declines (1.2) Combined 2.2 Stable
Rawlpindi Urban Flood Management Expressway/Channel 1.88 Declines? Community pond 8.55 ???? River improvement 25 Improves? Early Warning (gold plated) 0.96 ??? Relocation/Restoration 1.34 Improves?
True but overly simplistic
Not all approaches are resilient under changing climatic conditions
Results of detailed CBAs indicate investment in risk reduction can generate high rates of return
Not all approaches benefit everyone - particularly the poor
Not all DRR is robust with different assumptions & Climate Change
Not all DRR is robust with different assumptions & Climate Change
Differing levels of information on events required (probabilities)
Sensitivity to thresholds (embankments)
Potential for negative externalities
Differing levels of information on events required (probabilities)
Sensitivity to thresholds (embankments)
Potential for negative externalities
Not all All Approaches Benefit EveryoneNot all All Approaches Benefit Everyone
Structural protection -- displaces impacts on those outside protective structures & can lead to behaviors that increase vulnerability
Insurance -- hard to get down to the poorest Early warning -- can’t always reach key groups Groundwater development -- particularly
benefits middle farmers
Structural protection -- displaces impacts on those outside protective structures & can lead to behaviors that increase vulnerability
Insurance -- hard to get down to the poorest Early warning -- can’t always reach key groups Groundwater development -- particularly
benefits middle farmers
Most approaches involve social tradeoffs
Tra
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Ba
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erTransect 3: Settlements along Lal Bakaiya River
Qualitative CBA TransectsQualitative CBA Transects
Transect 1: The Bairgania Ring BundTransect 1: The Bairgania Ring Bund
+, - -
(+, - -)
(+, - - -)
(+, - - -)
(+ + +,- )
(+ +, -)
(+, - - -)
(+ +,-) (- - -)
(+ + +)
Transect 2: Settlements along Bagmati RiverTransect 2: Settlements along Bagmati River
(+ +,- -)(- - -)
(+,- -)
(+ +, -)
Transect 3: Settlements along Lal Bakaiya RiverTransect 3: Settlements along Lal Bakaiya River
Robust approachesRobust approaches
address the systemic factors creating vulnerability
respond to recurrent sources of variability have low dependence on specific climate
projections
address the systemic factors creating vulnerability
respond to recurrent sources of variability have low dependence on specific climate
projections
Many such approaches are community based
Questionable DRR ApproachesQuestionable DRR Approaches
Warning signals that DRR may not work include strategies that involve: Dependence on specific event characteristics Long lead times High initial investments Long-term institutional dependence Large distributional consequences
Warning signals that DRR may not work include strategies that involve: Dependence on specific event characteristics Long lead times High initial investments Long-term institutional dependence Large distributional consequences
Climate Risk Management RequiresClimate Risk Management Requires
A mix of strategies Distributed CBDRM as well as centralized Systemic as well as targeted Financial & institutional as well as infrastructure Risk spreading as well as risk reduction
Approaches that are tailored to specific contexts and sources of vulnerability
Tangibility rather than generalizations
A mix of strategies Distributed CBDRM as well as centralized Systemic as well as targeted Financial & institutional as well as infrastructure Risk spreading as well as risk reduction
Approaches that are tailored to specific contexts and sources of vulnerability
Tangibility rather than generalizations