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Disaster Risks and Capacities in Central Asia
Michael Thurman
Regional Disaster Risk Reduction Advisor, ECIS
"Improving Regional Coordination in Managing Compound Risks in Central Asia“ 14-15 April 2011
Contents
1. Risk = hazard exposure x vulnerability
2. Capacity Averages (from CACDRR Capacity Assessment)
3. Capacity Gaps and capacity Development Priorities (from Group Work for HFA 1, 3, and 4)
Geophysical Hazards
• All major cities are highly exposed and contain a high concentration of population and economic activity.
• Secondary effects include landslides, mudflows, and GLOFs. Not enough is known concerning the triggering effect.
• Landslides triggered by geological, seismic, and meteorological processes
• Landslides will become more frequent and intensify with climate change.
• Transboundary hazards in Ferghana Valley and northern Tien Shan.
Meteorological Hazards
• 1991-2007: hydrological variability increased.
• Downstream exposure to floods and hydrological drought often due to poor management at all levels.
• Ferghana Valley and upper Amu Darya basin highly exposed to transboundary mudflow and GLOF hazards.
• GLOFs are a growing concern, due to glacier melt.
• Climate change will amplify exposure to all meteorological hazards.
Compound Hazards
• Hydrological drought and extreme cold:
o “Compound crisis” of 2007-08: natural and man-made factors contributed to exposure
o Climate change expected to result in warmer winters, but hydrological drought more severe
• Technogenic hazards: Mayli Suu and other toxic waste particularly a concern in the Ferghana Valley
Economic Vulnerability
• Lack of adequate data, due to collection and analysis procedures for global and national datasets.
• Potential for losses as % of GDP highest for Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
• Absolute amount of potential losses for other countries are higher.
• Vulnerable to meteorological hazards: weather-dependent sectors account for 40-60% of GDP.
Structural Vulnerability
• Intense earthquake in a major city in Central Asia would collapse or severely damage around half of the residential building stock.
• Water infrastructure deteriorated and vulnerable to flood hazards
• Outdated building codes and lax enforcement attenuate structural vulnerability
Socioeconomic Vulnerabilities
• Poverty, income disparities, and social status significantly lower resilience.
• Poor municipal and land use planning place populations, infrastructure, and livelihoods in the way of hazards.
• Unsustainable operations and maintenance of infrastructure, especially for water, increases both exposure and vulnerability.
• Agriculture requires development to lower vulnerability to drought and floods.
• Environmental degradation contributes to exposure and vulnerability.
CACDRRR Capacity Assessment Averages
DRR Overview Course – Presentation 02 – Disaster Risk & Development (Block 01) – Slide9/15 – 13 April 2023
KAZAKHSTAN KYRGYZSTAN TAJIKISTAN
HFA1: Enabling environment & institutions
3.00 2.66 3.01
HFA 2: Risk assessment & early warning
2.75 2.44 2.51
HFA 3: Awareness and education
2.80 2.33 2.23
HFA 4: Prevention and mitigation
3.09 2.02 2.02
HFA 5: Preparedness & response
3.36 2.03 2.20
Capacity indicators per priority areas of the Hyogo Framework for Action Assessment of the existing capacity level 1 …… 5 Desired capacity level/priority (low, medium, high)
Capacity Gaps and Priorities: Group Work for HFA 1
Ensuring Commitment, Enabling Environment and Institutional Development
Capacity Gaps and Priorities: Group Work for HFA 3
Public Awareness and Education
Capacity Gaps and Priorities: Group Work for HFA 4
Disaster Prevention and Mitigation
THANK YOU!