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Disaster vs. Systems Engineering
INCOSE Monthly Meeting13 September 2006
Presented by: Bob Pierson
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Disaster vs. Systems Engineering
• A Discussion– Based Partially on the special
section of INCOSE Insighto July 2006, Vol. 8 Issue 3
o Sponsored by the INCOSE Anti-Terrorism International Working Group (ATIWG)
– Major natural disasters and terrorist activities: o “What can the discipline of
systems engineering contribute to mitigate the damages caused by such disasters and possibly even to prevent them?” – William F. Mackey
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Disaster vs. Systems Engineering
• History and Evolution of the ATIWG» Based on William Mackey, “A History of INCOSE’s Activities in Public Interest
Issues”
– 2001 (early): INCOSE Revitalization Project established to:o Harness talents of foremost experts across SEo Address public interest challenges
“An unsolved problem that has negative effects on people of various cultures and geographical locations and that is amenable to the application of systems engineering”
– Sept 2001: Anti-Terrorism International Working Group chartered– 2002: First Panel at Las Vegas Symposium: “The Role of Systems
Engineering in Combating Terorism”– 2003: 2nd Panel at Arlington Symposium: “The Role of Systems Engineering
in Combating FUTURE Acts of Terrorism” plus models, simulation & analysis
– 2004: 3rd Panel at Toulouse Symposium: “Recent Systems Development And Legal Efforts to Secure National Borders in the U.S., Europe, Israel, and Iraq” plus papers, tutorial at Mid-Atlantic Conference
– 2005: 4th Panel at Rochester Symposium: “Will the International Community’s Counter-Terrorism Strategy Reduce or Eradicate Terrorism?” plus Root Cause Analysis
– 2006: 5th Panel at Orlando Symposium: “Are Natural Dissaters Similar or Dissimilar to Terrorist Attacks?”B
road
enin
g D
efin
ition
of t
he Is
sue?
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Disaster vs. Systems Engineering
• Recent Terrorist Events» William Mackey, “A Recent History of Terrorism and Natural Disasters”
Recent events… ”demonstrate that terrorist groups have the ability to perform systematic analyses and use sophisticated systems – built by industrialized countries – against random innocent people at virtually any location on the globe.” – William Mackey, “A History of INCOSE’s Activities in Public Interest Issues”
Still a Small Threat Compared to Daily Hazards?- U.S. gun deaths are about twice this every year- U.S. accidental deaths are about twice this every month- U.S. cancer deaths equal this about every two days
But Fear/Effect Ratio is Very High!
?
I apologize here. These are very emotional topics and many of us knew or lost acquaintances. By adopting a somewhat flippant tone, I may offend. But my intention is not to diminish the horror or the loss, but to add some perspective.
Better SE Through Terror?
think of border drug tunnels, an outstanding
SE success?
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Disaster vs. Systems Engineering
• Selected Natural Disasters» William Mackey, “A Recent History of Terrorism and Natural Disasters”
“Natural” Disasters?
>10
M d
eath
s
>1 M
dea
ths
>100
K de
aths
>10K
dea
ths
>1K
deat
hs
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Disaster vs. Systems Engineering
• How Are Terrorism & Natural Disaster Similar / Dissimilar?» Joe Carl, “Anti-Terrorism International Working Group Panel 2006 – Position Paper: How
Are Natural Disasters Similar or Dissimilar to Terrorist Attacks? – A Debate on the Issues”
? ?
?
?
?? ?
?
?
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Disaster vs. Systems Engineering
• Behavioral Response Model(s)» From Joseph Carl, “Natural Calamities and Terrorism Events Have Similar Consequences”,
– Generalized From William Mackey’s Terrorism-Specific Model
– Different Causes (mother nature, human intention)
– Common Consequences
– Three Responses
CARL’s RESPONSE MODELMACKEY’s RESPONSE MODEL
Nice model. But, how to allocate limited resources among the three responses?And from which other problem do we take the resources?
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Disaster vs. Systems Engineering
• A Discussion– Major natural disasters and terrorist activities:
o “What can the discipline of systems engineering contribute to mitigate the damages caused by such disasters and possibly even to prevent them?” – William F. Mackey, theme editor
o “We believe that our objective, disciplined approach to problem analysis limits the emotional response to such difficult challenges and offers insights that inform government decision makers.” – William F. Mackey
decision maker
insights fearsSE
Not sure I’m as optimistic…
provides
everybody else
insights fears
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Disaster vs. Systems Engineering
• The Speaker’s Personal Perspectives (Gloom & Doom 101?)– Two Key Factors
o The Limits of Risk Management Risk Is Limitless; Resources Are Note
o Unintended Consequence Our Successful Systems Make Us Vulnerable
– Let’s Start From a Geophysical Perspective…
– Before Getting to Humans… And Godzilla
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Disaster vs. Systems Engineering
• The Limits of Risk Management– Magnitude vs. Likelihood Problem in Natural Disasters
EARTHQUAKES:Motion x10; Release Energy x32; per 1.0 magnitude
We think we can localize. Can we really?
60% of Memphis leveled?
1/frequency (years)
106 105 104 103 102 101 100
2
3
7
6
5
4
8 Great
Major
Strong
Moderate
Light
Ear
thq
uake
Mag
nitu
de
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Disaster vs. Systems Engineering
• The Limits of Risk Management– Magnitude vs. Likelihood Problem in Natural Disasters (concluded)
BOLIDES (METEORS):Similar log-log scaling with extreme events known in the geologic record
No hope of localizing within a latitude band
1/frequency (years)
100 102 104 106 108
K-T Impact
Meteor Crater, AZ
Annual Event ~ 20 kilotons
Meg
aton
s T
NT
Equ
iva
lent
10-2
100
102
104
106
global catastrophe
THE PROBLEM IS:likelihood(event)*likelihood(you dying) goes up with scale of event
So, rationally, we would invest our resources addressing the most unlikely event? Unlikely!
108
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Disaster vs. Systems Engineering
• The Limits of Risk Management– Magnitude vs. Likelihood Problem in Human-Induced Disasters
o Do Human-Caused Disasters Have a Similar Risk-Likelihood Curve?
o And, Even Worse, Is The Curve Not Static?
HUMAN-CAUSED DISASTERS:Seem to populate a similar likelihood vs consequence curve
BUT, unlike natural causes: Seem to be accelerating And increasing in severity
There is an underlying exponential growth curve that affects our ability & willingness to do intentional harm and our likelihood of creating unintentional consequences.
1/frequency (years)100 10-2 10-4 10-6 10-8
10-2
Mag
nitu
de o
f H
uman
Dis
aste
r
100
102
104
106
108
19002000
2100
?
collapse of civilization
invention of reality TV
bad hair day
evil empire
death star
Again, I apologize here. Famine and genocide are not equivalent to bad TV. The humor, again, is to keep some perspective.
THE 2nd PROBLEM (HUMAN-INDUCED) IS:likelihood(event)*likelihood(you dying) accelerates with time
So, rationally, we would focus our resources averting the very worst imaginable human catastrophes and learn to accept increased day to day insecurity in return? Good luck!
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Disaster vs. Systems Engineering
• Unintended Consequences– Our Successful Systems Make Us Vulnerable
o Or…terrorists need cell phones…
o power grids, water supplies, global trade…
CHUANG-TZU:Was asked how it could be that an evil despot had wrecked a formerly well-run and respected Chinese state by taking it over and engaging in a campaign of war and terror. Chuang Tzu’s reply: because it was well run.
In trying to keep our treasure, we bind it up with heavy locks and chains. But if a big enough thief sees the opportunity, they’ll pick up the whole thing and their only worry is that the locks and chains might give as they cart it all away!
Recent events… ”demonstrate that terrorist groups have the ability to perform systematic analyses and use sophisticated systems – built by industrialized countries – against random innocent people at virtually any location on the globe.” – William Mackey, “A History of INCOSE’s Activities in Public Interest Issues”
THE GODZILLA FACTOR:Unintended consequence & fear establish a human negative feedback (now heavily exploited by terrorists): In the original Gojira (Godzilla) movie, badly deployed systems engineering creates/unleashes the monster unintentionally through nuclear testing and the hero scientist (systems engineer) is forced to make the impossible decision whether to unleash a yet more deadly technology (with yet worse unintended consequences?) in order to destroy the monster…
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Disaster vs. Systems Engineering
SE
To succeed, we must address the human condition: (1) limitless risk vs. limited resources(2) unintended consequences vs precaution(3) human fear as a root causeIs this an SE task?