Disasters and Climate Change Adaptation

Dan Sandink

Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction

AEMA Stakeholder SummitOctober 29, 2008

Leduc, Alberta

Introduction

ICLR Global trends Canadian disasters and disaster trends Hazards and vulnerability Alberta Adaptation and disaster mitigation Conclusion

ICLR

Created in 1997 by Canadian insurers to address rising natural disaster losses

Affiliated with the University of Western Ontario Offices in London and Toronto

30 Scientists associated with ICLR Engineering, social sciences, atmospheric sciences,

geophysics

A focus on disaster mitigation and prevention Climate change adaptation

Global Occurrences: Nat Cats

Munich Re, 2008

Geophysical eventsMeteorological events

Climatological eventsHydrologic events

•Thousands of fatalities and/or hundreds of thousands homeless•Supra-regional, international assistance required•Exceptional monetary losses

Global Costs: Nat Cats

Munich Re, 2008

Total lossesInsured losses

Disasters in Canada

Canadian Disaster Database

Criteria for inclusion: Meets at least one of the following:

10 or more people killed 100 or more people affected/injured/evacuated or homeless An appeal for national/international assistance Historical significance Significant damage/interruption of normal processes such that

the community affect cannot recover on its own

Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada, 2007

2414947

3936

3123

13975

2

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275

FloodWildfireDrought

Winter stormHail/Thunderstorm

TornadoHurricane/Typhoon

AvalancheCold wave

Freezing rainHeat wave

Storm surge

Meteorological and Hydrologic Disasters in Canada, 1900-2005

Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada, 2007

298

65

44

32

1000

0 10 20 30 40 50

FloodAvalanche

WildfireDrought

Winter stormCold wave

Hail/ThunderstormHurricane/Typhoon

Heat waveTornado

Storm surgeFreezing rain

Meteorological and Hydrologic Disasters1900-2005

Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada, 2007

British Columbia

1613

87

64

222

00

49

0 10 20 30 40 50

FloodWildfire

TornadoWinter storm

DroughtCold waveHeat wave

Hurricane/TyphoonFreezing rain

Hail/ThunderstormStorm surge

Avalanche

Ontario

88

75

44

322

10

27

0 10 20 30 40 50

FloodWinter storm

WildfireTornadoDrought

Hurricane/TyphoonCold wave

Hail/ThunderstormHeat waveAvalanche

Freezing rainStorm surge

Quebec

1613

44

33

22

11

0

53

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

FloodHurricane/TyWinter storm

FreezingWildfire

Cold waveHeat wave

DroughtStorm surge

AvalancheTornado

Hail/Thunde

Maritimes

Flood is most common

3534

2066

44

222

00

0 10 20 30 40 50

DroughtFlood

Hail/ThunderstormWinter storm

Cold waveTornadoWildfire

AvalancheFreezing rain

Heat waveStorm surge

Hurricane/Typhoon

Meteorological and Hydrologic Disasters 1900-2005

Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada, 2007

Alberta

197

55

43

21

000

35

0 10 20 30 40 50

DroughtFlood

WildfireCold wave

Hail/ThunderstormTornado

Winter stormHeat wave

Freezing rainHurricane/Typhoon

Storm surgeAvalanche

Saskatchewan

285

44

33

21

000

33

0 10 20 30 40 50

DroughtFlood

Cold waveWinter storm

Hail/ThunderstormTornadoWildfire

Heat waveFreezing rain

Hurricane/TyphoonStorm surge

Avalanche

ManitobaDrought is most

common, floods are second most common

Disaster Database

0

40

80

120

1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s

Weather related disasters Geophysical disasters

Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada, 2007

Number of Catastrophic Events

Disaster Database

Recent significant disaster events: Prairie Drought, 1980

$5.8 B Ice Storm, 1998

$5.4 B Prairie Drought, 1988

$4.1 B Saguenay Flood, 1996

$1.7 B Red River Flood, 1997

$817 M

Earthquake risk Estimates in the 10s and 100s of billions

Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada, 2007

Insurance Payouts

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Wildfire

Icestorm

Snowstorm

Hurricane

Rainstorm

Tornado

Wind

Storm

Hail

Flood

IBC, 2000; 2007

Large Payout Events by Hazard, 1983-2005

Number of Events

Insurance Payouts

Most expensive disasters for Canadian insurance industry (adjusted to 2005) 1998, Ontario and Quebec ice storm

$1.95 B August 19, 2005 heavy rainfall and wind event,

GTA/Ontario $500 M

Hail event, Calgary, 1991 $444 M

IBC, 2007; 2000

Factors in Increasing Trends

Hazards & Vulnerability

Hazards Vulnerability

DisasterRisk

Potentially damaging events

•Floods•Hurricanes•Droughts

Propensity to experience impacts (susceptibility)

•Socioeconomic characteristics•Location of development

Disasters occur when hazards trigger vulnerability

Socioeconomic Biophysical

Sphere

Internal

Factors affecting individuals:Household income & levels and concentration of wealthSocial capital/social networks, educationIndividual risk perceptions/adoption of mitigative adjustments

Factors affecting the community:Local government policies and institutional arrangementsUrbanizationPopulation density, size of populationDevelopment in hazard prone areasInfrastructure funding, maintenanceDependence on technologyLocal economic circumstances

Topography Local environmental

conditions Land-use patterns State of

infrastructure Building

characteristics Environmental

degradation

External

Institutional arrangements at national & provincial level

External economic context International influences

Climate trends Severe storms Weather events Climate change

Adapted from Füssel (2007). Sources: Cutter et al., 2000; Cutter et al., 2003; de Sherbinin et al., 2007; Dore, 2003; Etkin, 1999; Etkin et al., 2004; Field et al., 2007; Hebb & Mortsch, 2007; Shrubsole, 2000

Vulnerability Factors

Vulnerability Factors

0

10

20

30

1951 1976 2001 2026

Other Urban Large Urban >500K

Statistics Canada, 2001

Canadians Living in Urban Areas, Millions

Climate Change Climate Change

Increasing energy in the atmospheric system

Extreme events will become more common Drought, extreme rainfall, heavy rainfall, higher temperatures,

high wind events, health impacts IPCC, 2007: “Very High Confidence”

Impacts are largely local/regional

Field et al., 2007

Alberta

3534

2066

44

222

00

0 10 20 30 40 50

DroughtFlood

Hail/ThunderstormWinter storm

Cold waveTornadoWildfire

AvalancheFreezing rain

Heat waveStorm surge

Hurricane/Typhoon

Meteorological and Hydrologic Disasters in Alberta

1900-2005

Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada, 2007

0

10

20

30

40

50

1900

-190

9

1910

-191

9

1920

-192

9

1930

-193

9

1940

-194

9

1950

-195

9

1960

-196

9

1970

-197

9

1980

-198

9

1990

-199

9

2000

-200

5

Hydrological and Meteorological Disasters Geophysical Disasters

Meteorological and Hydrologic Disasters in Alberta

1900-2005

Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada, 2007

Frank Slide, 190370 Dead, 23

Injured

Issues for Alberta

Vulnerability issues in Alberta:

Growing population

Growing urban population

Increasing wealth

Reliance on rivers for water

Reliance on irrigation

Alberta has 2/3 of Canada’s irrigated lands

Historical urban flood issues

From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, 2007

From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, 2007

Population

Hazard Vulnerable Areas

Google Maps, Alberta Environment

Hail, Drought & Flood in Alberta

Hail Highest frequency of hail is in Central/Western Alberta between

1977 and 1993 – 3-7 days per warm months (May-September)

From 1900-2005, 36 hail related disasters in Canada 20 of these were in Alberta

Most costly hailstorm in Canada: September 1991 in Calgary

116,311 claims

$342,745,000 (1991 $)

$ 475,646,122 (2008 $)

Etkin & Brun, 2001; IBC, 2006; Public Safety Canada, 2007

Hail

IBC 2000; 2008

3140

5723

45429

710101110

1833

65180

146105

283

2436

31173

2214

5

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

Montreal: May, 1986Montreal: May, 1987Calgary: Aug., 1988Calgary: July, 1990

Calgary: Sept. 1991Calgary: July, 1992Alberta: Aug., 1992

Alberta: Sept., 1992Alberta: July, 1993

Southern Alberta: June, 1993Southern Manitoba: Aug., 1994

Edmonton: July, 1995Southern Alberta: July, 1995

Calgary: July, 1995Winnipeg: July, 1996

Calgary: July, 1996Calgary: July, 1996

Outaouais: July, 1996Calgary: July, 1998

Drummondville: June, 1999Alberta: Aug., 2003

Saskatchewan: Aug., 2003Edmonton: July, 2004

Calgary: July, 2004Alberta: Aug., 2006

GTA: Sept., 2006

Major Multiple-Payment Occurrences: Hail

Minimum: $2 M

18/26 were in AB

Millions of Dollars, Adjusted to 2006

7/8 events >$50 M were in Alberta

Hail Studies suggest that frequency of hail events is increasing in Alberta

Etkin & Brun (2001) found statistically significant increase when comparing occurrences between 1977-1982 and 1983-1993

But not in other provinces

Research on climate change impacts on hail is limited in Canada

A 2008 study found that hail occurrences will increase as the climate changes in Australia

Possible climate change impacts

Hail associated with severe thunderstorms

Extreme weather events (including severe thunderstorms, convective storms) are expected to increase as the climate changes

Leslie et al., 2008; White & Etkin, 1997

Drought Drought is a normal part of the prairie ecosystem

Research has revealed that pre-settlement droughts in the prairies were more severe, and the post-settlement climate has been relatively favourable

Prolonged drought over 1-2 years in length more frequent in pre-settlement periods

Sauchyn et al., 2003; Images: Natural Resources Canada

Temperature Trends

From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, 2007; Environment Canada, 2005

Average temperatures since 1895 from 12 prairie climate stations prairies

Average increase in mean temp: 1.6°C

Climate Change and Drought

According to a 2008 report from Government of Canada:

“Increases in water scarcity represent the most serious climate risk” for the Prairie Provinces

Lower summer stream flows

Falling lake levels

Retreating glaciers

Increasing soil-, surface-water deficits

Greater number of dry years

Could constrain rapid economic development and population growth in Alberta

From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, 2007

Climate Change and Drought Smaller amount of snowfall, rain instead of snow in the winter

Snow accumulation is already decreasing (Akinremi et al., 1999)

Possibly more precipitation in the winter

Earlier peaks in runoff and stream flows

Lower late-season water supplies

Predictions of increased summer heat and decreased growing season precipitation

Reduced supplies for communities that rely on rivers for water supply (e.g., Calgary, which relies on Bow and Elbow Rivers) Reduced glacial melt

From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, 2007; Timilsina & Kralovic 2005

14

13

4

9

32

73

65

30

44

5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Calgary

Winnipeg

Toronto

Quebec

Fredricton

1961 - 1990 2080 - 2100

Days Warmer than 30°C

Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis

Drought Wildfire:

Increased risk of wildfire – risk increased by 20-30% in prairie regions over next 60 years

Earlier onset of spring and summerlike conditions will increase the length of the fire season (season could increase by 20 days over the next 50 years)

Wildfires can create flood risk

Increased flood risk due to hydrophobic soils, loss of vegetation during post-wildfire period

Dryer conditions mean organic soils dry and burn with the forest, total removal of vegetation

Reduced ability to store water

From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, 2007; Wotton & Flannigan, 1993

Post-Wildfire Risks

Kelowna: Post-wildfire flood risk

Increase between 5 and 15 times the pre-fire 1 in 200 year flows

Created approx. $10 M in damage risk

$2 M in stream-road crossing improvements

Flood

Likely the most significant risk for urban communities

There will be increased pressure on existing stormwater management infrastructure Heavy rainfall, increased development

Heavy precipitation events have increased in in frequency in south-western Canada, 1950-1995 (May-June-July period) Light precipitation events have decreased in frequency

Heavy rainfall events expected in increase in frequency in changing climate

Akinremi, 1999; Groisman et al., 2005; From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, 2007; Stone et al., 2000

Flood Southern Alberta, 2005

$84,000,000 in DFAA payouts (2005 $) $55,000,000 in provincial disaster relief payouts (2005 $) $300,000,000 in Insurance payouts Calgary: June, 2005

13,500 claims $144.5 million in insurance payouts (2005 $)

Southern Alberta, 1995 $34,889,155 in DFAA payouts (1995 $)

Provincial Share: $6,964,285 $12,672,842 in provincial disaster relief payouts (1995 $) $20,764,000 in insurance payouts (1995 $)

Personal Communication, Insurance Bureau of Canada, Alberta and the North Division; IBC, 2008; PSC, 2007; Public Safety Canada

Edmonton, 2004

2 severe rainfall events in July, 2004 July 2 - 75 mm July 11 - 150 mm (~1 in 200 year event) July 11 storm part of the system that hit Peterborough on July 15

9,500 insurance claims for sewer backup $143 M for sewer backup Total of $166 M for all damages

IBC, 2006; Klassen & Seifert, 2006

Urban Flood Impacts

Infrastructure damage Business interruption Damage to homes Environmental impacts

Utilities in Basement

Extreme Rainfall

Overland flows caused by extreme rain

Caused directly by intense rain e.g., when rain exceeds 100 year capacity of major

systems and/or where major systems are poorly defined

Occur outside of formally defined floodplain Generally, have not been identified in riverine flood risk

maps

UMA. 2005. City of Peterborough Flood Reduction Master Plan. UMA: Mississauga

Extreme Rainfall – Overland Flow

Routes Vs. Riverine

Flooding

Mitigation and Prevention (Adaptation)

Climate Change Adaptation

Climate Change Mitigation Reducing GHG emissions, improve NRG efficiency “Climate Protection” Global and long-term

Climate Change Adaptation Reducing negative impacts, or enhancing positive impacts of

climate change Local, short- to long-term Emergency management and disaster mitigation

Accounting for increased frequency and severity of climate/weather related extreme events

Enhancing resilience to these events

Bruce, 1999; Lemmen & Warren, 2004; Mehdi et al., 2006

Adaptation

Risk Management Identify, analyze, evaluate, identify options, implement and monitor

mitigation strategies

Risks change as the climate changes Infrastructure has been based on assumption of a static climate

E.g., 1 in 100 year event

Comprehensive adaptation plans require multiple stakeholders Infrastructure, social issues, environmental issues, buildings, land-

use planning, water resources, emergency management, etc.

Climate Change

50

60

70

80

90

Event recurrence time (years)

Size

of e

vent

(mm

)

10 20 40 8030 50 60 70

1985

2050

2090

Environment Canada

By 2070, current “20 year” events could occur every 10 years

Climate Change Scenarios should be regionalized

IDF curve study for the City of London, Ontario (Prodanovic & Simonovic, 2007 – UWO)

Identified potential changes in precipitation under climate change scenario

Rainfall magnitude and intensity will be different in the future

Wet scenario revealed significant increase in rainfall magnitudes and frequencies

Applying IDFs to assess vulnerability (current study)

Image: Prodanovic & Simonovic, 2007

Climate Change Adaptation

Addressing the hazard Flood management structures Hail suppression

Alberta Hail Suppression Project• Reduce hail damage in urban areas (Calgary and Red Deer)

Funded by the insurance industry

Addressing vulnerability (behaviour changes) Urban flood reduction education programs (e.g., Edmonton) Water conservation initiatives Public/online access to flood maps Planning for hazards

Risk maps and land-use restrictions FireSmart program (Partners in Protection, based in Edmonton)

Public Behaviour Edmonton and Toronto

Overall, Edmonton respondents more knowledgeable and more of them had taken mitigative action than Toronto respondents Significant differences in

perceptions/behaviours between case cities

Higher rate of attending public meetings related to flood (14% vs. 5%)

More likely to think that the City was doing something about flood risk

Leading funding/education program

Alberta Flood Risk Map Information System

From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, 2007

Conclusions

Disaster frequency has increased, Globally, in Canada and in Alberta

Disasters are hazards + vulnerabilities Severe losses from drought, hail, flood in Alberta Climate change scenarios indicate increased risk A substantial portion of climate change adaptation

will include improved disaster mitigation Regional, local approach

Thank you

Dan Sandink, M.A.

Manger, Resilient Communities and Research

Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction

October 29, 2008