Home >Documents >DISRUPTING LAUNCH SYSTEMS - Bienvenue · PDF fileDISRUPTING LAUNCH SYSTEMS THE RISE OF SPACEX...

DISRUPTING LAUNCH SYSTEMS - Bienvenue · PDF fileDISRUPTING LAUNCH SYSTEMS THE RISE OF SPACEX...

Date post:22-Feb-2019
Category:
View:212 times
Download:0 times
Share this document with a friend
Transcript:

DISRUPTINGLAUNCHSYSTEMSTHERISEOFSPACEXANDEUROPEANACCESSTOSPACE

ThesissubmittedtotheInternationalSpaceUniversityinpartialfulfillmentoftherequirementsoftheM.Sc.DegreeinSpaceStudies

August2017

Thesisauthor:PaulWohrer

Thesissupervisor:Prof.Jean-JacquesFavier

InternationalSpaceUniversity

PaulWohrer ii MSS-YearBThesis2017

1 AbstractTheriseofSpaceXasamajorlaunchproviderhasbeenthemostsurprisingevolutionofthelaunchsectorduringthepastdecade.Itforcedincumbentindustrialactorstoadapttheirbusinessmodeltofacethisnewcompetitor.Europeanactorsareparticularlythreatenedtoday,sinceEuropeanAutonomousAccesstoSpacehighlydependsonthecompetitiveedgeoftheArianelauncherfamily.Thisstudyarguesthattheframeworkofanalysiswhichbestdescribestheeventsleadingtothecurrentsituationisthetheoryofdisruptiveinnovation.Thestudyusesthisframeworktoanalysethereusabilitytechnologypromotedbynewactorsofthelaunchindustry.Thestudyarguesthat,whileconcurringwithmostanalysisthatthepriceadvantageofreusedlaunchersremainsquestionable,themostimportantadvantageofthistechnologyistheconvenienceitcouldconfertolaunchsystemscustomers.ThestudyofferstworecommendationstoEuropeanactorswillingtomaintainEuropeanAutonomousAccesstoSpace.ThefirstoneaimsatallocatingresourcestowardacommercialexploitationoftheVegasmalllaunchsystem,todisruptthegrowingmarketofsmallsatellitesandstrengthentieswithItalianpartnersinthelauncherprogram.ThesecondaimsatincreasingtheperceptionofEuropeanlaunchersasstrategicassets,toavoidtheircommoditization.TherecommendationentailsdevelopinganautonomousEuropeancapacitytolaunchastronautsintospace,whichcouldstrengthenthetiesbetweenFranceandGermanyaswellasleadtoarationalizationofthegeo-returnprinciple.ThiscapabilitywoulduseArianelaunchersandprovideEuropeanactorswithapowerfuldiplomatictool.

InternationalSpaceUniversity

PaulWohrer iii MSS-YearBThesis2017

2 AcknowledgementsThisworkwouldnothaveexistedwithouttheoutstandingsupportofmyprojectsupervisorJean-JacquesFavier.Ideeplythankhimforhispatience,dedicationandforgivingmetheopportunityofshapingmycuriosityintoastructuredproject.Furthermore,hebelievedinmycapacitytotacklethisexcitingtopicandprovidedthematerialconditionstoinitiateit.Iextendhimmydeepestgratitude.JohnLogsdon,professoremeritus,generouslywelcomedmeattheSpacePolicyInstituteduringmytriptotheUnitedStates,andopenedthedoorsofthemostinterestingspaceexecutivestome.HealsoallowedmetowitnessSpaceXsCRS10launchfromCapeCanaveral,whichwasoneofthemostintenseandexcitingmomentsofmylife.Fortheopportunitiesheprovidedme,forhisinvaluableexperienceandwisdominallspace-relatedmatters,Iextendhimmydeepestandmostsinceregratitude.IwouldliketoexpressmysinceregratitudetoXavierPasco,directoroftheFoundationforStrategicResearch,whoofferedmetheopportunitytoachievemythesisinfantasticconditions,andallowedmetoexpandmyknowledgeandperceptionofspacechallenges.Manyofthechallengesfacedduringthewritingofthisworkareduetotheownlimitationsofitsauthor.Hisbiggestassetswerebyfarthebenevolenceandpatienceofhisinterlocutors,whoacceptedtobeinterviewedforthisthesis.Theseexceptionalindividualshelpedshapingthesomewhatnaveandidealisticperceptionoftheissuesinspacelaunchintoamorepertinentunderstandingoftheactualforcesatplay.Ithereforewishtodeeplythankallofthem:

DavidQuancard,ChiefOperatingOfficeratArianegroup ChristopheBonnal,SeniorExpertatCNES AlainDupas,Physicist OlivierBecu,ProgramManageratESA JohannDietrichWoerner,GeneralDirectorofESA LouisLaurent,SeniorVicePresident-AdvisortotheCEOforStrategicAffairs,

Arianespace JohnLogsdon,Founder,ProfessorEmeritusofPoliticalScienceandInternational

AffairsattheSpacePolicyInstitute Jean-JacquesTortora,DirectoroftheEuropeanSpacePolicyInstitute ClayMowry,VicePresidentSales,MarketingandCustomerExperience,BlueOrigin PhilMcAlister,SpecialAssistantforProgramAnalysisatNASA LoriGarver,GeneralManageratAirLinePilotsAssociationandformerDeputy

AdministratorofNASA MarcTimm,programexecutiveatNASA ScottPace,DirectoroftheSpacePolicyInstituteandexecutivesecretaryofthe

NationalSpaceCouncil WilliamR.Claybaugh,BusinessManagementConsultant WienerKernisan,PresidentofArianespace,Inc. KenLee,SeniorVicePresidentofSpaceSystemsatIntelsat

InternationalSpaceUniversity

PaulWohrer iv MSS-YearBThesis2017

LonardPineau,CostEstimationandProjectControlEngineeratCNES JrmeVila,AssistantDirectorResearchandFuturePrograms,SpaceLaunchersat

CNES VictorNikolaev,CEOofStarsem PascaleEhrenfreund,ChairoftheDLRExecutiveBoardandResearchProfessoratthe

SpacePolicyInstitute PascalBultel,ReusableLaunchersM.R.O,Arianegroup ThiloKranz,ProgramExecutiveatESA AnexecutivefromSpaceXwhorequestedanonymity AnexecutivefromUnitedLaunchAlliancewhorequestedanonymity AnexecutivefromESAwhorequestedanonymity

Iwishtofinallyextendmygratitudetothemembersofmyfamilywhoimmenselycontributedtotheachievementofthisthesis:DominiqueWohrerandJosAlberro,whokindlyhousedmyduringmystayinWashingtonDC,andLaurentSamuelwhoinspiredmetoreadaboutdisruptiveinnovation.

InternationalSpaceUniversity

PaulWohrer v MSS-YearBThesis2017

3 Tableofcontents1 Abstract......................................................................................................................ii

2 Acknowledgements...................................................................................................iii

4 ListofAcronyms.......................................................................................................vii

5 Listoftables............................................................................................................viii

6 Introduction................................................................................................................1

7 Motivation..................................................................................................................2

8 Methodology..............................................................................................................28.1 InterviewsofSpaceExecutives........................................................................................28.2 Reviewofrelatedwork...................................................................................................38.3 Challenges......................................................................................................................3

9 Structureofthethesis................................................................................................4

10 Theemergenceofathreat......................................................................................410.1 The1980s,theriseofArianeandtheShuttle..................................................................410.2 The1990s,Ariane4,EELVandinternationaljointventures.............................................610.3 The2000s,Ariane5andAmericanstep-down.................................................................810.4 SpaceXandNewSpace.................................................................................................10

10.4.1 ElonMuskandSpaceX................................................................................................1010.4.2 SpaceX........................................................................................................................1010.4.3 Falcon1.......................................................................................................................1110.4.4 Falcon9.......................................................................................................................11

10.5 TheEuropeanreaction..................................................................................................12

11 Whatisalaunchsystem?......................................................................................1411.1 Nation-statesandsupranationalentities......................................................................14

11.1.1 UnitedStates...............................................................................................................1411.1.2 France..........................................................................................................................1511.1.3 Germany......................................................................................................................1511.1.4 Italy..............................................................................................................................1611.1.5 EuropeanUnion..........................................................................................................17

11.2 Spaceagencies..............................................................................................................1711.2.1 NASA............................................................................................................................1711.2.2 ESA...............................................................................................................................1811.2.3 CNES............................................................................................................................19

12 Launchsystemsmarkets.......................................................................................1912.1 Marketscriteria............................................................................................................2012.2 Marketsegments..........................................................................................................21

12.2.1 SmallsatsandCubesats...............................................................................................2112.2.2 Spacestationresupplymissions..................................................................................2112.2.3 Smallcommercialsatellites..............................

Click here to load reader

Reader Image
Embed Size (px)
Recommended