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LTE challenges & opportunities
NetEvents, February 8-10th 2011, [email protected]
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About Disruptive Analysis
Analyst house & strategic consulting firm
Founded by Dean Bubley, @disruptivedean Blog at disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
Covering 3G since 2000, mVoIP since 2004, pico/femtocells since 2001
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011Feb 2011
technologies & the impact on devices and applications Research reports on Broadband Traffic Management, Mobile VoIP,
Broadband Business Models, Femtocells, IMS
Probably coined the term Mobile data offload in 2008
Coined the term Under the floor player in 2009 Coined the term Happy pipe in 2010
Coined the term Telcowash in 2011
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LTE is being deployed..
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011Feb 2011
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and its fast
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011Feb 2011
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LTE challenges
Unclear business model
Policy management & charging challenges Unclear when full LTE coverage might be achieved
Too many spectrum bands 2600, 2300, 2100, 1900, 1800, 1700, 900,, ,
Increases component size, cost & power needs
Some auctions delayed anyway
Indoor coverage poor at >2GHz
Roaming nightmare (but does it matter?) Voice and SMS uncertainties
Massmarket handsets a long way off
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011Feb 2011
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Is LTE for dumb pipes, or happy pipers?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011Feb 2011
Should telcos be more scared of under-the-floor players
than over-the-top?
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Mobile broadband traffic management options
Policy-basedtraffic-shaping
Compression,optimisation &
transcoding
Macro radionetwork
upgrades &optimisation
Tuning TCP/IP &contention mgmt
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011Feb 2011
Local offload(WiFi / Femto)
Transport / coreoffload
Corenternet
Device-basedsolutions
Caches/ CDNs
Congestion APIs &monitoring
X.Y.Z
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LTE era vs 50bn devices: How many with voice?
30
35
Other
Possibly 50 billion+(maybe 1 trillion+)
Billiondevices
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011Feb 2011
0
5
10
15
20
25
2010 2020
p ones
3G phones
2G phones
Most devices not forprimary voice.
Scope for secondaryIP comms services
Most devicesfor primary
voiceStill a lot ofCS mobile
voice
Full mobileVoIP not#1 priority
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Voice Telephony
Now: 2G & 3G
Voice
Voice
Future: Smartphones & LTE
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011Feb 2011
Telephony
Telephony
Video, context, senseVideo
Gaming, CEBP,surveillance, socialvoice, TV voice etcVoicemail
Conferencing
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IMS: dead, but now nailed to the perch of LTE?(With apologies to Monty Python)
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011Feb 2011
Mobile IMSFjords, aka RCS
http://disruptivewireless.blogspot.com/2009/08/mobile-ims-and-lte-networks-dead-parrot.html
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Most likely outcome for LTE VoiceSolution 2011-2012 2013-2014 2015 onwards Notes
VoLTE Some trials. Many
problems found
Patchy rollout, more
in 700-900MHznetworks
Slow growth but not
universal. Used forroaming
If it works, OK for
basic telephony, notfor Voice 2.0
CSFB Few rollouts. Likelynot good userexperience
May be fixed, but notlikely
Fades out asmainstream option
Political choice byGSMA / 3GPP
VoLGA Unlikely to be used,maybe OTT
May come back ifother solutions asbad as feared
Good option forthose with long CSlegacy ahead
Could be revisited by3GPP under anothername
No operator voice.User picks 3rd pty
Used on laptops &tablets. Somesmartphone use
Common on LTEwholesale networks
May be 2nd voiceservice along withoperators own
Some operators willtake fixed bbandapproach
Optimised 3rd-partyVoIP
A few renegadeoperators
Depends on Skype,Google etc
Important in specificpockets but notuniversal
Could be providedfrom other telco aswholesale
Dual-radio Velcro Use for SVLTE inCDMA 1x + LTE
Replacement forCSFB in 3GPP?
Probably superseded Battery impact butbetter overall QoE
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www.disruptive-analysis.com
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
+44 (0) 7941 100016
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011Feb 2011