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Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011May 2011
About Disruptive Analysis
Analyst house & strategic consulting firm
Founded by Dean Bubley
Blog at disruptivewireless.blogspot.com Twitter @disruptivedean & also on LinkedIn and Quora
Covering mobile VoIP since 2004, pico/femtocells since 2001
Regular focus on the links between innovative mobile network technologies & the impact on devices and applications
Partnered with Telco 2.0, Diffraction Analysis & Martin Geddes Consulting
Coined the term “Happy Pipe” to describe profitable broadband strategies Also “Tyranny of the SIM card”, “Mobile data offload” & “Under the floor player”
Recent reports on Mobile Broadband Traffic Management & RCS
Upcoming study on Telco-OTT services
Masterclasses on “Future of Voice”. SF event June 30th, London event on July 14th
The big picture
• VoIP needed for cost & competition
• Well-defined wholesale models
• Centralised & standardised services
• Attempts to evolve telephony to APIs
2000-2010
Fixed broadband & VoIP, QoS
• Power & bandwidth to fit comms tech to human needs, not vice versa
• Many “two-sided” business models
• Fragmentation of voice into 1000 apps
2010-2020
LTE, cloud, web 2.0, social networks, smart
devices, apps, QoE
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011May 2011
Future telephony economics 101
Supply of basic telephony (or close substitutes) rising
Regulatory pressures (eg termination fees)
Lower perceived value in phone calls vs. other communications channels
Accounting rule changes
More users
Possibility to “distribute” telephony via APIs &
embedded applications
New use cases?
Extra functionality & quality?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011May 2011
Three basic “uses cases” for communications
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011May 2011
Source: Martin Geddes Consulting
Presence is “sensuous”
More than on/offline
Includes context & emotion
A dirty little secret….
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011May 2011
Humans don’t
really interact with
each other in
“sessions”
…but sessions are easy to control & bill. The challenge is to package sessions
in a way to compete with more “natural” options that are emerging
Voice ≠ Telephony
Now: 2G & 3G
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011May 2011
Voice
Telephony
Voice
Telephony
Future: Smartphones & LTE
Video, context, senseVideo
Gaming, CEBP,
surveillance, social
voice, TV voice etc
Voicemail
Conferencing
PTT
Significant risk that basic telephony & messaging services fall prey to alternatives
that fit better with human psychology. Moving to supply >> demand for voice
LTE era vs 50bn devices: How many with voice?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011May 2011
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2010 2020
Other
LTE phones
3G phones
2G phones
Possibly 50 billion+
(maybe 1 trillion+)
Billion
devices
Most devices not for
“primary voice”.
Scope for secondary
IP comms services
Most devices
for “primary
voice”Still a lot of
CS mobile
voice
Full mobile
VoIP not
#1 priority
2020 “Straw Man”
1bn LTE handsets
Comms services ARPU $20 / mo
[but 50% carried on 2G/3G/WiFi]
$120bn revenue
= equivalent to 2010 SMS market
Will future operators all support voice? How?
Integrated voice &
data operators
Full IMS + VoLTE
“Velcro” GSM or CSFB or VoLGA
Data only & BYO-VoIP
Partner Skype / Google
etc
Cloud voice (non-
access)
Partial IMS / NGN VoIP
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011May 2011
+ need for continuity at LTE / 3G
/ 2G /WiFi boundary
IMS: dead, but now nailed to the perch of LTE?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011May 2011
LTE
Mobile IMS
3GPP
& GSMA
Fjords, aka RCS
(With apologies to Monty Python)
http://disruptivewireless.blogspot.com/2009/08/mobile-ims-and-lte-networks-dead-parrot.html
Revisiting the VoIP timeline
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011May 2011
Vocaltec 1st
Internet VoIP
software
ITU develops
H323
SIP spec
released
Skype launched
Cisco starts
selling IP-PBXs
1m Cisco
IP-phones
shipped
10m IP-phones
shipped by
Cisco
10% of fixed global
PSTN based on
carrier VoIP
(about 110m
subscribers)AT&T VoIP
launched
SoftBank /
Yahoo VoIP
launched
• 8 years to get 10% penetration for fixed-carrier VoIP
against background of old switches, all postpaid (recurring
revenue). No issues of mobility, battery or RF.
• 12 years after ITU release SIP specifications
• OneVoice (later VoLTE) specs announced late 2009
• First VoLTE launches 2012/2013 (?)
Skype gets
124m monthly
users
LTE voice & VoLTE challenges Too many spectrum bands
Poor optimisation in efficiency, yield, cost & performance
All sorts of policy-management / steering challenges
Not all operators will deploy VoLTE, even long-term
Some will be data-only/primary & not need own voice platform
Some may partner / encourage / optimise Skype & other 3rd party voice
Offload / multi-bearer scenarios
No likelihood of MNOs switching off CS voice before 2020
Unknown need for optimisation & tuning of RAN for VoLTE
High probability of OSS / BSS headaches
Lack of clarity around network-sharing / wholesale scenarios
Indoor coverage problems, esp. with MIMO
Massmarket handsets a long way off
Where is SMS???
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011May 2011
Most likely outcome for LTE Voice
Solution 2011-2012 2013-2014 2015 onwards Notes
VoLTE Some trials. Many
problems found
Patchy rollout, more
in 700-900MHz
networks
Slow growth but not
universal. Used for
roaming
If it works, OK for
basic telephony, not
for Voice 2.0
CSFB Few rollouts. Likely
not good user
experience
May be fixed, but not
likely
Fades out as
mainstream option
Political choice by
GSMA / 3GPP
VoLGA Unlikely to be used,
maybe OTT
May come back if
other solutions as
bad as feared
Good option for
those with long CS
legacy ahead
Could be revisited by
3GPP under another
name
No operator voice.
User picks 3rd pty
Used on laptops &
tablets. Some
smartphone use
Common on LTE
wholesale networks
May be 2nd voice
service along with
operator’s own
Some operators will
take fixed bband
approach
Optimised 3rd-party
VoIP
A few renegade
operators
Depends on Skype,
Google etc
Important in specific
pockets but not
universal
Could be provided
from other telco as
wholesale
Dual-radio “Velcro” Use for SVLTE in
CDMA 1x + LTE
Replacement for
CSFB in 3GPP?
Probably superseded Battery impact but
better overall QoE
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011May 2011
Towards two-sided business models?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011May 2011
Telco End users
Other
Telco
Whole-
sale
$$$
$
$
Devel-
opersGovern
-ment
Media
&
content
Brands
& adver
-tisers
Web
players
IT
shops
Possible payment for QoS, voice API
access, ads, customer info etc
But a risk of reversal – telcos paying
for Web QoS, APIs, data, content
And also “not as easy as it looks” to
achieve. Platforms, SLAs, IT, sales…
Some technology gaps?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011May 2011
Telephony &
messaging
model for
wholesale
LTE
networks
VoIP and
messaging in
complex
offload
scenarios
Prioritisation
& QoS
engines for
complex
scenarios
Signalling
management
for VoLTE,
comms apps
& MBB
On-device
measuremen
t of user-
perceived
QoE
Advanced
acoustic
technology
optimised for
mobile VoIP
Solution for
SMS on LTE
that works
Dual-radio
GSM / LTE
devices and
chipsets
Next steps: participate, analyse & collaborate
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011May 2011
www.disruptive-analysis.com
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
@disruptivedean
+44 (0) 7941 100016
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011May 2011