Disruptive Analysis - OMA Messaging Workshop July 2012

Fragmentation, intent & “The Death of Ubiquity”: why Telco-OTT strategies are inevitable

OMA Mobile Messaging WorkshopBrooklyn NY, 12th July 2012

[email protected] @disruptivedean

mailto:[email protected]

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012July 2012

About Disruptive Analysis

London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm Advisor to MNOs, vendors, regulators & investors Critic of mobile IMS since 2005 and RCS since 2008 Published report on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, Feb 2012 Workshops on Future of Voice & #TelcoOTT

With Martin Geddes Consulting (credited for various slides here) Next events in Orlando & London in October

Twitter @disruptivedean . Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com

Core thesis: Fragmentation is valuable

Convergence & standard

s

Fragmentation &

innovation


… new standardised services are neither necessary, nor sufficient.

RCS is irrelevant at best, and actively damaging at worst.

Different User Needs & contexts

New Business Models

New Delivery Technologies

Multiplying Ecosystems

Messaging: key fragmentation drivers

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2012July 2012

Different User Needs & Contexts

New Business Models



Functional needs

Scale & scopeContext

Intent


Why do people send messages, anyway?

Intent: 3 basic motivations for communications


Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting 2012

Information transfer

July 2012

Narrative


Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting 2012

Presence really means “feeling an essence”

July 2012

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012

SMS vs. Intent

July 2012

Information Transfer Narrative Presence

“Running 10 mins late. In taxi now”

“You’ll never believe what happened last

night :-O”

“Miss you… looking forward to Friday ;-)

xxx”

Different User Needs

New Business Models



Functional needs


Intent



Context: Messaging moves to in-app/web model

July 2012

… messaging APIs need to fit the app narrative

Servicee.g. SMS

Producte.g. WhatsApp

Featuree.g. Zynga IM

Function


Context: Device diversity = OTT inevitable

1 2 3 4 5 60%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Probability of all of a user’s Internet / messaging devices being on a single telco’s network

# connected devices owned

July 2012

Free 3rd party WiFi

Shared data plans only a partial response


New Business Models



Functional needs


Intent


Scale & scope

Unmet needs at every layer Many combinations of

information transfer, narrative & presence

Many ways to meet them No application can do it all

Interactions

Rendezvous

Communities

Relationships

Conversations



Birthday party!

July 2012

+

Lowest common denominator services used as a fallback when nothing better available


New Business Models



Functional needs


Intent


SMSC SMSC

CustomerDatabase

Roaming

Alice Bob

Invoice

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2012

SMSC SMSC

CustomerDatabase

HomeAgent

Alice Bob

Invoice

Mobility

Transmission

Storage

Ubiquity Urgency

Governance

Relevance

Accountability

Interoperability

Availability Delivery

Usability


SMSBBMSkype (mobile)Facebook (mobile)

Transmission

Storage

Interoperability

Delivery

Mobility

Ubiquity

Urgency

Accountability

Availability

Usability

Relevance

Governance


OTT-styleservices

Telco-styleservices Transmission

Storage

Interoperability

Delivery

Mobility

Ubiquity

Urgency

Accountability

Availability

Usability

Relevance Governance


Convenient

Rentable

Preinstalled

Simple

Familiar OTT-styleservices

Telco-styleservices

Billed


OTT-styleservices

Telco-styleservices

Reach

Coolness

Affinity

Functionality

Tailored

Exclusivity

Free/Freemium


OTT-styleservices

Telco-styleservices

Reach

Coolness

Exclusivity

Affinity

Functionality

Tailored

Personalised

Convenient

Rentable

Preinstalled

Simple

FamiliarTransmission

Storage

Interoperability

Delivery

Mobility

Ubiquity

Urgency

Accountability

Availability

Usability

Relevance Governance



Interoperability is good but just another function

July 2012

Presence

You can’t please all the people, all the time…

Phone number

Other identity


Ubiquity

Exclusivity

Mobile primary

Web primary

Familiarity

Novelty

… at least, not with a single monolithic service or restrictive API


Fragmentation is irreversible

OTT solutions target specific use-cases optimally

You can’t beat them through interoperable generic messaging

So join them through OTT-style innovation…. … or be happy with being lowest-common denominator for

the residual use cases

Telco-OTT services or partnerships are inevitable

July 2012


Telco-OTT is neither new, nor impossible

July 2012


Different models for Telco-OTT

July 2012

InternetTelco OTT service

Telco Internet

Billing & ID

Telco service

Normal “on net” users

Off-net extension user


Key success factors for Telco-OTT services

July 2012

Organisation & governance Managing cannibalisation

Design Software mindset


Conclusions

Messaging fragmentation is inevitable Consequence of myriad use-cases & human nature (Also because of technology, devices, ecosystems etc) There is a need for lowest-common denominator…. …. but it small & likely low-priced So-called OTT messaging is irreversible New standards won’t fix anything MNOs need to innovate, partner, stick with SMS, or exit

July 2012

www.disruptive-analysis.com

disruptivewireless.blogspot.com

@disruptivedean

AVAILABLE FOR WORKSHOPS, CONSULTING & SPEAKING

[email protected]

+44 (0) 7941 100016


http://www.disruptive-analysis.com/

mailto:[email protected]

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Disruptive Analysis - OMA Messaging Workshop July 2012

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