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Disruptive MobilityAsfaltdag 2014, Amersfoort
Carlo van de Weijer Director Strategic Area
Smart Mobility TU/e, TomTom Traffic Solutions
Source: Raymond Kurzweil, Kurzweil Accelerating Intelligence
Disruptive change
DigitizeDisrupt
DemonetizeDemocratize
Demonetization
Demonetization
The mobile being
The 1h06m mobility urge
The mobile beingM
obile
hou
rs p
er d
ay
Gross Domestic Product (GPD) per Capita US$ 1985
The car has become a computer on wheels
• A modern car produces 100Tb data per hour
• The new Mercedes S-Class has more ECU’s and 100x more lines of software code compared to a Boeing 747
• The vehicle starts outsmarting the driver. After ESP and ABS, more and more functions are taken over by the vehicle
Cost of Mobility
Source: KiM Mobiliteitsbalans 2009, CPB 2004, I&M 2008
Safety: 1,8 - 2,3 % GDPEnvironment: 0,3 - 1,4 % GDPCongestion: 0,9 - 1,2 % GDP________________________________________________________________________________
TOTAL: 3,0 - 4,9 % GDP
Cost of Mobility
Source: KiM Mobiliteitsbalans 2009, CPB 2004, I&M 2008
Safety: 1,8 - 2,3 % GDPEnvironment: 0,3 - 1,4 % GDPCongestion: 0,9 - 1,2 % GDP________________________________________________________________________________
TOTAL: 3,0 - 4,9 % GDP
Stupid Mobility
Traffic Death in the Netherlands 1950-2010
• Relatively less cars are involved in fatal accidents
• Limited effectiveness of law enforcement: Less and less accidents caused by traditional traffic offenses; driver distraction is the new enemy
• Volvo: “no one will be killed or injured in a new Volvo by 2020”
Cost of Mobility
Source: KiM Mobiliteitsbalans 2009, CPB 2004, I&M 2008
Safety: 1,8 - 2,3 % GDPEnvironment: 0,3 - 1,4 % GDPCongestion: 0,9 - 1,2 % GDP________________________________________________________________________________
TOTAL: 3,0 - 4,9 % GDP
Stupid Mobility
NOx (g/kWh)
0,30
1 2 3 4
0,20
– 95 %
– 97
%
0,40
Euro 1
5 6 7 8
0,10Euro
2Euro
3
Euro 4
Euro 5
Euro 1 1993
Euro 2 1996
Euro 3 2000
Euro 4 2006
Euro 5 2009
Euro 6 2014
Euro 6
PM (g/kWh)
Emission legislation
Cost of Mobility
Source: KiM Mobiliteitsbalans 2009, CPB 2004, I&M 2008
Safety: 1,8 - 2,3 % GDPEnvironment: 0,3 - 1,4 % GDPCongestion: 0,9 - 1,2 % GDP________________________________________________________________________________
TOTAL: 3,0 - 4,9 % GDP
Stupid Mobility
Stupid Mobility
Stupid Mobility
Company Confidential
• Traffic will be a self-steering system of well-informed individuals. Governments will have to make a shift from managing traffic to facilitating traffic.
• Traffic jams are a voluntary and predictable event.• Cost of congestion decreases as drivers can use time effectively• Automation will lead to increased use of roads
Traffic Management 2.0
Cost of Mobility
Source: KiM Mobiliteitsbalans 2009, CPB 2004, I&M 2008
Safety: 1,8 - 2,3 % GDP 0% GDPEnvironment: 0,3 - 1,4 % GDP 0% GDPCongestion: 0,9 - 1,2 % GDP 0% GDP________________________________________________________________________________
TOTAL: 3,0 - 4,9 % GDP 0% GDP
Governmental cost of modalities, €/1000pk, NL
Bron: CE 2014, Accenture
Transparent supply-demand information will change mobility
• “Simplification” of road infrastructure:– Refrain from Variable Message Signs, DRIPS, portals– Return to elementary, two-dimensional roads with high tech focus basic
functions (friction, support, road marking, drainage, +)– Less variety in traffic rules (variable speed, rush hour lanes, ++). The limited
effect will not justify the increased complexity and cost
• Smart Mobility = Smart Cars on no-nonsense infrastructure• More road traffic, more payload• Create flexibility for the future, unlike examples below
34
Future roads
• Vehicles will solve most of their own problems
• Vehicles will solve most of their own problems
• Smart Mobility: Intelligent mobility with intelligent vehicles on elementary roads
• Smart Mobility: Intelligent mobility with intelligent vehicles on elementary roads
• Automation and demand-supply services will lead to further growth of road traffic
• Automation and demand-supply services will lead to further growth of road traffic
• The high-tech will be in the asphalt, and driving on top of it
• The high-tech will be in the asphalt, and driving on top of it