DistIT - Introduce · DistIT’s Q3’19 figures came in surprisingly weak. Sales were SEK 539m...

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DistIT

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Further challenges and unexpected costs

EBIT loss due to restructuring and write-downs

Weak sales and continued cost pressure likely

Value range down ~15% to SEK 20-75

Sales down 6% y-o-y, adj. EBIT margin down 190bp

DistIT’s Q3’19 figures came in surprisingly weak. Sales were SEK 539m

(-8% vs. ABGSCe at SEK 582m), down 6% y-o-y. Aurora was the main

culprit, down 19% y-o-y, while Deltaco grew 9% and the smaller

segments Septon and Sominis grew -33% and +149%, respectively. The

gross margin declined to 20.0% (21.7%), impacted by a negative product

mix and unfavourable FX effects. In addition to previously communicated

restructuring costs of SEK 9m, EBIT was burdened by a write-down of

SEK 30m relating to Deltaco’s ERP system. This meant that EBIT came

in at SEK -23m, while on an adjusted basis SEK 16m (-49% vs. ABGSCe

SEK 31m), on a margin of 3% (ABGSCe 5.3%). With the positive impact

of SEK 45m from the sale of DistIT Fastigheter AB, net profit grew by

15%, resulting in EPS of SEK 1.38 (ABGSCe SEK 4.86).

More disruptions, gives lower confidence in restructuring

So far 2019 has been a year of change and challenges for DistIT, with

the integration of Aurora and Deltaco, tough end-markets, the loss of two

distribution deals for Aurora and the write-down of Deltaco’s ERP system.

If management can execute on its goals, we still believe that the share

will respond well. However, after the last couple of quarters we think that

this will take longer than initially expected. 2019 is a lost year, and we

lower sales by 2% and adj. EBIT by 27%, to SEK 2,379m and SEK 70m,

respectively. For ’20e and ’21e, we lower the EBIT margin by 30bp, to

4.4% and 4.7%. We expect growth to be moderate, at around 3-4%.

Lowering our fair value range by 15% to SEK 20-75

We have previously said that successful restructuring should do wonders

for the share. However, we have yet to see a positive impact, growth is

low and continued disruptions are likely. We feel the risk premium has

increased and we lower our fair value range by ~15%, to SEK 20-75.

28/10/2019

Performance

Equity Research - 30 October 2019 17:33 CET

SEKm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

Sales 1,781 2,272 2,379 2,480 2,560

EBITDA 71 84 64 121 131

EBITDA margin (%) 4.0 3.7 2.7 4.9 5.1

EBIT adj 61 86 70 109 119

EBIT adj margin (%) 3.4 3.8 2.9 4.4 4.7

Pretax profit 54 56 3 100 111

EPS rep 34.99 3.27 2.87 6.08 6.73

EPS adj 3.13 4.40 3.85 6.08 6.73

Sales growth (%) 15.5 27.6 4.7 4.2 3.2

EPS growth (%) 684.3 -90.6 -12.2 111.7 10.6

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data

Lead analyst: Oskar Vikström

Estimate changes (%)

2019e 2020e 2021e

Sales -1.9% -1.9% -1.8%

EBIT (rep) -81.1% -7.1% -6.9%

EPS (rep) -58.8% -8.8% -8.4%

Source: ABG Sundal Collier

Share price (SEK) 33.2

Technology Hardware & Equipment, Sweden

DISTIT.ST/DIST SS

MCap (SEKm) 408

MCap (EURm) 37.9

Net debt (EURm) 20

No. of shares (m) 12.3

Free float (%) 64.0

Av. daily volume (k) 12.9

Next event Q4 report: 13 Feb

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DistIT OMX STH PI

1m 3m 12m

Absolute (%) -18.6 -23.1 -18.8

OMX STH PI (%) 5.1 5.9 19.7

Source: FactSet

2019e 2020e 2021e

P/E (x) 11.6 5.5 4.9

P/E adj (x) 8.6 5.5 4.9

P/BVPS (x) 1.07 0.95 0.85

EV/EBITDA (x) 10.0 5.0 4.4

EV/EBIT adj (x) 9.2 5.6 4.9

EV/sales (x) 0.27 0.25 0.23

ROE adj (%) 12.8 18.4 18.1

Dividend yield (%) 6.0 6.5 6.5

FCF yield (%) -0.9 15.0 15.7

Lease adj. FCF yld (%) -0.9 15.0 15.7

Net IB debt/EBITDA 3.3 1.4 1.0

Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 1.7 1.4 1.0

DistIT

30 October 2019 ABG Sundal Collier 2

Quarterly sales and adj. EBIT, SEKm


Business area breakdown, sales, SEKm


EPS estimate changes, 2019e, SEK

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet

EPS estimate changes, 2020e, SEK

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet

OpportunitiesNew distribution rights agreements, bolt-on acquisitions

as well as bigger acquisitions with decentralized areas of

responsibilities, synergies and cross-selling.

RisksShift in technology preferences and disruptive

technologies, price pressure.

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Aurora SweDeltaco Septon Electronic SominisTechnology

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ABGSC FactSet Consensus Mean

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ABGSC FactSet Consensus Mean

Company descriptionDistIT acquires, owns and develops distributors of

accessories for IT, Mobility, Multimedia, Network and

data communications in the Nordic and Baltic countries.

DistIT and its subsidiaries have a firm track record of

value-added acquisitions, but also divestments such as

Alcadon in 2016. Today DistIT consists of Deltaco,

Aurora Group, Septon Electronics and Sominis

Technology. Sales were SEK 1.8bn in 2017 with an EBIT

margin of 3.3%. Financial targets are 10% EPS growth

and an equity ratio >35%. The shares are listed on

NASDAQ First North.

DistIT


DistIT in brief

DistIT’s roots can be traced back to Ludvika, Sweden, where it started by importing

and distributing cables from Taiwan under the name Deltaco in 1991. Today, DistIT

has evolved into a large-scale distributor with roughly 25,000 products on offer.

Growth has been enabled by an active M&A approach that continues to search for

strong niche distributors in the IT and consumer electronics industries. Targets

include companies with an attractive product range, good profitability and competent

entrepreneurial leaders.

DistIT has obtained strong market positions across the Nordic and Baltic regions,

with its main markets being Sweden and Denmark. The company aims to offer the

best product range in its niche markets at competitive prices and with fast delivery

times. Its distribution channels target both B2C (~70% of sales) and B2B (~30% of

sales) customers through both physical and digital sales outlets. Customers are

found in a wide range of markets including home electronics, online retail, electric

installers, telecom operators, grocery stores and low-price resellers. In addition to

distributing some of the best-known electronics brands, the company also

manufactures and distributes its own branded products (EMV). EMV brands (~23%

of sales) tend to provide higher margins than traditional distributed brands and allow

for exports into new markets.

Geographic sales split FY’18

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

B2C vs. B2B sales split FY’18


EMV vs. distribution FY’18


Historical sales and EBIT margin FY’09-FY’18


Sweden49%

Norway12%

Denmark22%

Finland9%

RoE8%

B2B30%

B2C70%

EMV23%

Distribution77%

352 380 411494

1,021

1,3911,294

1,542

1,781

2,272

2.0%

7.0%

5.1%

3.8%

2.2%

4.7%

3.1%3.4% 3.3% 3.2%

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2,500

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Sales EBIT-margin

DistIT


Operating segments Aurora accounted for 43% of ‘18 sales. The company was founded in 1999 and

mainly focuses on the distribution of EMV (19% of sales) and branded home

electronics, but has recently broadened its offering into other areas. With new

brands such as Duracell® and Braun Oral-B®, the company has expanded into new

channels for B2B (currently 5% B2B sales) customers in the kitchen and appliances

segment. The current customer base includes companies like Clas Ohlson,

Mediamarkt, Elgiganten and Salling Group.

Sales and EBIT margin FY’16-21e


Regional sales split FY’18


Deltaco accounted for 40% of ’18 sales. The company distributes IT products and

household appliances at competitive prices with with quick deliveries in the Nordic

and Baltic regions. Customers are roughly evenly split between B2B and B2C and

are mainly found in the traditional IT and home electronics markets. Deltaco also

manufactures and sells its own in-house brands such as Streetz™, DELTACO™,

Nordic Home Culture™ and DELTACO Gaming™. The EMV brands have largely

contributed to Deltaco’s growth and improved profitability; today they account for

around 32% of sales. The customer base includes companies such as ATEA, Kjell

& Company, Bauhaus and OKQ8.





Septon Electronic accounted for 13% of ’18 sales. The company started its

operations in 1969 and today is a distributor of high-end audio and video products

(AV) for professional markets and consumers. The product range includes

speakers, amplifiers, Blu-ray players, projectors, monitors, microphones,

headphones, sound mixers and wireless systems. Septon represents several well-

known brands such as Harman Pro, Klipsch and Marantz, to name but a few. The

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5.2%5.6%

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750

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1,000

2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

Net sales Reported EBIT margin

Sw eden42%

Norw ay14%

Denmark35%

Finland9%

709 717

913

9861,035

1,085

3.1%

1.7%

3.3%

-2.7%

5.1% 5.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

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2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e


Sw eden63%

Norw ay5%

Denmark10%

Finland12%

Baltics10%

DistIT


products are sold at over 300 sales outlets in Sweden. Customers include Dustin,

Effektgruppen SCAN AV and CDON.COM. The group does not currently have EMV

sales, but it is one of the group’s main focus areas. In August, Septon’s subsidiary

LiteNordic acquired a 60% stake in TiGHT LED AB. TiGHT LED is a strong brand

that provides Septon with EMV possibilities.





Sominis Technology accounted for 4% of ‘18 sales. The Lithuanian company was

founded in 2010 and acts as a reseller of surplus electronics and IT products to B2B

customers all over Europe. The business model focuses on buying, reselling and

distributing under-priced products in Europe. Sominis provides low prices, logistics

and customer service.





103120

295

346359 367

14.7%

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2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e


Sw eden50%

Norw ay28%

Denmark22%

8289

121

133 135

0.0%

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2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e


Denmark8%

Rest of Europe92%

Segment summary: Aurora and Deltaco >80% of sales

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company presentation

Aurora Deltaco Septon Sominis

% of group sales 43% 40% 13% 4%

% of group EBIT 46% 31% 22% 2%

Customers

Clas Ohlson

MediaMarkt

Elgiganten

Salling group

ATEA

Kjell & Company

Bauhaus

OKQ8

Dustin

Effektgruppen

SCAN AV

CDON.COM

unclear

Customer

relationship (years)~15 ~15 >10 unclear

EMV (% of sales) 19% 32% 0% 0%

B2B (% of sales) 5% 40% 80% 100%

DistIT


Acquisitions DistIT is built on acquisitions – three of the company’s reporting segments stem

from previous acquisitions: Aurora was acquired in 2013, while Septon and Sominis

were acquired in 2017. Other major acquisitions include Winter Wireless in October

2017 and Lydrommet in June 2018. Through its many acquisitions, DistIT has been

able to leverage on synergies relating to logistics, insurance, marketing, purchase

agreements, etc. In a challenging space facing significant pricing pressures, DistIT’s

larger size is able to benefit it throughout all parts of the value chain. We expect that

further acquisitions are likely ahead and a part of the forward-looking growth

strategy. The realisation of the real-estate sale and completion of restructuring,

should provide both the firepower needed and the group structure necessary for

successful acquisitions.

EMV – own brand portfolio EMV accounts for roughly 23% of group sales and grew by 18% y-o-y in 2018 and

24% in Q1’19. In Q2’19, the company decided not to disclose EMV growth, but the

company states that an increasing portion of EMV helped to support a higher gross

margin in the quarter. In late 2018, the board of directors decided to intensify the

focus on EMV products for all segments. One result of this has been the process of

integrating the Aurora and Deltaco acquisitions in an overall effort to expand their

EMV brand offering and distribution network. Septon is currently in the process of

developing its own EMV products with the help of Aurora and Deltaco. In addition,

Septon’s 60% stake in TiGHT LED AB provides EMV opportunities for the segment.

The group has appointed a person responsible for EMV to serve as a common

function for Aurora and Deltaco as well as a support function for Septon.

EMV brands and products


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Brands Product examples

DistIT


Q3’19

Deviations


Estimate changes


Old New Change (%) Change (SEKm)

2019e 2020e 2021e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2019e 2020e 2021e

Net sales 2,425 2,527 2,608 2,379 2,480 2,560 -1.9% -1.9% -1.8% -46.5 -46.9 -47.7

COGS -1,887 -1,963 -2,019 -1,872 -1,931 -1,987 -0.8% -1.6% -1.6%

OPEX -432 -436 -450 -386 -427 -442 -10.7% -2.0% -1.9% 46.1 8.5 8.3

EBITDA 81 128 139 64 121 131 -20.0% -5.4% -5.3% -16.2 -6.9 -7.4

D&A -11 -11 -11 -51 -12 -12 387.6% 14.3% 14.3% -40.7 -1.5 -1.5

EBIT 70 118 128 13 109 119 -81.1% -7.1% -6.9% -56.9 -8.4 -8.9

Adj EBIT 95 118 128 70 109 119 -26.7% -7.1% -6.9% -25.4 -8.4 -8.9

Net f inancials -12 -8 -7 -11 -9 -8 -7.2% 17.6% 18.9%

Tax -14 -24 -27 -10 -22 -24 -31.3% -8.8% -8.4%

EO -25 0 0 -57 0 0 -31.5 0.0 0.0

Net profit 86 82 90 35 75 83 -58.8% -8.8% -8.4% -50.3 -7.2 -7.6

EPS (SEK) 6.97 6.67 7.34 2.87 6.08 6.73 -58.8% -8.8% -8.4% -4.1 -0.6 -0.6

EBIT margin 2.9% 4.7% 4.9% 0.6% 4.4% 4.7% -2.3% -0.3% -0.3%

Adj. EBIT margin 3.9% 4.7% 4.9% 2.9% 4.4% 4.7% -1.0% -0.3% -0.3%

Sales growth Y/Y 6.7% 4.2% 3.2% 4.7% 4.2% 3.2% -2.0% 0.1% 0.0%

COGS/Sales -77.8% -77.7% -77.4% -78.7% -77.9% -77.6% -0.9% -0.2% -0.2%

OPEX/Sales -17.8% -17.3% -17.3% -16.2% -17.2% -17.3% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0%

GM% 22.2% 22.3% 22.6% 21.3% 22.1% 22.4% -0.9% -0.2% -0.2%

Q3'18 Q3'19 Q3'19e Diff (%) Diff (SEKm)

Net sales 570 536 582 -8% -46

Gross profit 124 107 128 -16% -21.0

EBITDA 29 20 26 -24% -6.3

Adj EBITDA 30 59 34 75% 25.2

D&A -3 -3 -3 0% 0.0

EBIT 26 -23 24 -197% -46.6

Adj EBIT 28 16 31 -49% -15.1

EO -2 -39 -8

Gross margin 21.7% 20.0% 22.0% -2.0%

Adj EBITDA margin 5.3% 11.0% 5.8% 5.2%

Adj EBIT margin 4.9% 3.0% 5.3% -2.4%

Reported EBIT margin 4.5% -4.3% 4.1% -8.4%

EPS 1.16 1.38 1.38 -0.4%By division Q3'18 Q3'19 Q3'19e Diff (%) Diff (SEKm)

Net salesAurora 238 192 214 -10% -22

Sw eDeltaco 230 251 246 2% 5

Septon 92 62 109 -43% -47

Sominis 12 30 14 114% 16

DistIT


Detailed P&L: Q1’17-Q4’19e and FY’15-FY’21e


P/L, SEKm Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

Net sales 391 366 414 609 465 514 570 724 556 532 536 755 1,294 1,542 1,781 2,272 2,379 2,480 2,560

COGS -294 -280 -319 -479 -365 -401 -446 -567 -437 -409 -429 -598 -981 -1,178 -1,373 -1,779 -1,872 -1,931 -1,987

OPEX -81 -82 -76 -97 -90 -102 -95 -122 -112 -124 -48 -119 -265 -299 -337 -410 -386 -427 -442

OPEX adj for EO -80 -82 -75 -97 -88 -98 -93 -117 -110 -109 -9 -119 -258 -296 -335 -396 -330 -427 -442

EO items -1 0 -1 0 -3 -4 -2 -5 -2 -16 -39 0 -7 -3 -2 -14 -57 0 0

EBITDA 16 4 19 33 9 11 29 35 7 -1 20 38 48 65 71 84 64 121 131

Adj EBITDA 16 4 20 33 12 15 30 40 9 15 59 38 55 68 73 97 121 121 131

D&A -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -43 -3 -8 -12 -12 -11 -51 -12 -12

EBIT 12 1 16 30 6 8 26 32 5 -4 -23 35 40 53 59 72 13 109 119

Adj EBIT 13 1 17 30 9 13 28 37 7 12 16 35 47 55 61 86 70 109 119

Net f inancials -1 -2 -2 -1 -2 -4 -6 -4 -4 -3 -1 -3 -10 -5 -5 -16 -11 -9 -8

Tax -2 0 -3 -7 -1 -1 -5 -6 0 0 -3 -7 -6 -11 -12 -12 -10 -22 -24

NCI -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -7 -6 -5 -4 -2 -4 -4

Net profit to shareholders 8 -1 9 20 3 2 14 21 0 -7 17 25 42 424 37 40 35 75 83

Profit from divestments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 45 0 24 393 0 0 45 0 0

EPS diluted (SEK) 0.64 -0.09 0.76 1.66 0.25 0.17 1.16 1.69 0.03 -0.59 1.38 2.05 3.43 34.50 2.97 3.27 2.87 6.08 6.73

Adj. EPS diluted (SEK) 0.69 -0.09 0.87 1.66 0.46 0.53 1.32 2.09 0.19 0.68 0.94 2.05 1.97 2.69 3.13 4.40 3.85 6.08 6.73

Margins

Gross margin 24.7% 23.6% 23.0% 21.3% 21.4% 22.0% 21.7% 21.7% 21.5% 23.2% 20.0% 20.8% 24.2% 23.6% 22.9% 21.7% 21.3% 22.1% 22.4%

Adj. EBITDA margin 4.1% 1.2% 4.9% 5.3% 2.5% 3.0% 5.3% 5.5% 1.7% 2.7% 11.0% 5.1% 4.2% 4.4% 4.1% 4.3% 5.1% 4.9% 5.1%

Reported EBIT margin 3.1% 0.4% 3.8% 4.9% 1.4% 1.6% 4.5% 4.4% 0.8% -0.7% -4.3% 4.7% 3.1% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 0.6% 4.4% 4.7%

Adj. EBIT margin 3.3% 0.4% 4.1% 4.9% 1.9% 2.5% 4.8% 5.1% 1.2% 2.3% 3.0% 4.7% 3.6% 3.6% 3.4% 3.8% 2.9% 4.4% 4.7%

Growth

Sales grow th Q/Q -22% -6% 13% 47% -24% 10% 11% 27% -23% -4% 1% 41%

Sales growth Y/Y 24% 9% 6% 22% 19% 40% 38% 19% 20% 4% -6% 4% 19% 15% 28% 5% 4% 3%

Organic (reported)* 7% 26% 18% 11% 14% n.a. n.a. 4% 0% 2% 20% 2% 4% 3%

EBIT grow th Y/Y 67% -83% 24% 19% -48% 531% 65% 6% -27% n.m. nmf 10% 31% 12% 22% -82% 723% 9%

Adj EBIT growth Y/Y 75% -83% 12% 19% -30% 869% 62% 23% -26% -5% -42% -5% 18% 11% 41% -19% 57% 9%

Adj EPS grow th -21% n.m. -98% 24% -61% n.m. 54% 1% -84% n.m. 19% 22% 36% 17% 40% -12% 58% 11%

Reported EPS grow th -21% -111% -98% 24% -61% -291% 54% 1% -87% -448% 19% 22% 906% -91% 10% -12% 112% 11%

Ratios

COGS/sales 75.3% 76.4% 77.0% 78.7% 78.6% 78.0% 78.3% 78.3% 78.6% 76.8% 80.0% 79.2% 76.4% 77.1% 78.3% 78.7% 77.9% 77.6%

Adj. OPEX/sales 20.6% 22.4% 18.1% 16.0% 18.9% 19.0% 16.4% 16.2% 19.9% 20.5% 1.7% 15.7% 19.2% 18.8% 17.4% 13.9% 17.2% 17.3%

Incrementel margin 7.2% -21% 7.9% 4.4% -5.3% 7.7% 6.8% 6.0% -2.5% -3.2% 33.7% -5.5% 3.4% 2.5% 5.1% -15.2% 39.2% 12.5%

Sales by segment Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19e 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

Aurora 200 172 194 309 190 203 238 352 198 181 192 359 843 874 982 929 952 973

Sw eDeltaco 169 155 169 224 209 223 230 251 239 238 251 258 709 717 913 986 1,035 1,085

Septon 25 27 27 40 42 66 92 95 85 92 62 108 103 120 295 346 359 367

Sominis n.m. 15 28 40 27 23 12 27 35 26 30 29 n.m. 82 89 121 133 135

EBIT by segment

Aurora 7 2 13 28 3 2 12 26 -2 -8 0 29 44 49 43 19 46 52

Sw eDeltaco 7 -1 1 3 4 9 10 5 9 7 -21 -24 19 11 29 -29 53 55

Septon 3 3 3 2 2 4 6 7 2 5 2 2 15 12 20 11 27 29

Sominis n.m. 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 3 2 3 3 3

Group -4 -4 -3 -4 -4 -8 -3 -6 -6 -9 -5 28 -26 -15 -21 9 -19 -20

Sales growth by segment

Aurora 29% 5% -10% 0% -5% 18% 23% 14% 4% -11% -19% 2% 31% 4% 12% -5% 2% 2%

Sw eDeltaco 5% -11% -6% 16% 24% 44% 36% 12% 14% 6% 9% 3% 7% 1% 27% 8% 5% 5%

Septon n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 67% 144% 239% 136% 102% 39% -33% 13% n.m. n.m. 147% 17% 4% 2%

Sominis n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 58% -56% -32% 32% 11% 149% 9% n.m. n.m. 8% 36% 10% 2%

DistIT



Income Statement (SEKm) Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019e

Sales 465 514 570 724 556 532 536 755

COGS -365 -401 -446 -567 -437 -409 -429 -598

Gross profit 99 113 124 157 119 123 107 157

Other operating items -90 -102 -95 -122 -111 -124 -87 -119

EBITDA 9 11 29 35 7 -1 20 38

Depreciation and amortisation -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -43 -3

EBITA 6 8 26 32 5 -4 -23 35

EO items -3 -4 -2 -5 -2 -16 -39 0

Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EBIT 6 8 26 32 5 -4 -23 35

Net financial items -2 -4 -6 -4 -4 -3 -1 -3

Pretax profit 5 4 20 28 1 -7 -24 33

Tax -1 -1 -5 -6 -0 0 -3 -7

Net profit 4 3 15 22 1 -6 -27 25

Minority interest -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -0

Net profit discontinued 0 0 0 0 0 0 45 0

Net profit to shareholders 3 2 14 21 0 -7 17 25

EPS 0.25 0.17 1.16 1.69 0.03 -0.59 1.38 2.05

EPS Adj 0.25 0.17 1.16 1.69 0.03 -0.59 -2.24 2.05

Total extraordinary items after tax -3 -4 -2 -5 -2 -16 -39 0

Tax rate (%) 19.1 21.1 24.0 20.4 16.7 5.9 10.7 22.0

Gross margin (%) 21.4 22.0 21.7 21.7 21.4 23.2 20.0 20.8

EBITDA margin (%) 2.0 2.1 5.0 4.8 1.3 -0.2 3.7 5.1

EBITA margin (%) 1.4 1.6 4.5 4.4 0.8 -0.7 -4.3 4.7

EBIT margin (%) 1.4 1.6 4.5 4.4 0.8 -0.7 -4.3 4.7

Pretax margin (%) 1.0 0.7 3.5 3.8 0.2 -1.3 -4.6 4.3

Net margin (%) 0.8 0.6 2.7 3.0 0.2 -1.2 -5.0 3.4

Growth rates Y/Y Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019e

Sales growth (%) 18.9 40.1 37.7 18.8 19.5 3.6 -6.0 4.3

EBITDA growth (%) -41.3 147.7 51.6 7.7 -18.7 -chg -30.2 9.1

EBIT growth (%) -47.5 530.8 64.7 6.3 -26.6 -chg -chg 10.3

Net profit growth (%) -56.8 +chg 38.2 -0.9 -73.7 -chg -chg 15.8

EPS growth (%) -56.8 +chg 38.2 -0.9 -73.7 -chg -chg 15.8

Adj earnings numbers Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019e

EBITDA Adj 12 15 30 40 9 15 59 38

EBITDA Adj margin (%) 2.5 3.0 5.3 5.5 1.7 2.7 11.0 5.1

EBITA Adj 9 13 28 37 7 12 16 35

EBITA Adj margin (%) 1.9 2.5 4.8 5.1 1.2 2.3 3.0 4.7

EBIT Adj 9 13 28 37 7 12 16 35

EBIT Adj margin (%) 1.9 2.5 4.8 5.1 1.2 2.3 3.0 4.7

Pretax profit Adj 7 8 22 33 3 9 15 33

Net profit Adj 6 7 17 27 3 9 12 25

Net profit to shareholders Adj 6 7 16 26 2 8 12 25

Net Adj margin (%) 1.4 1.4 3.0 3.7 0.5 1.7 2.2 3.4

DistIT



Income Statement (SEKm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

Sales 494 1,021 1,391 1,294 1,542 1,781 2,272 2,379 2,480 2,560

COGS -375 -743 -1,036 -981 -1,178 -1,373 -1,779 -1,872 -1,931 -1,987

Gross profit 120 278 355 313 364 408 493 507 549 573

Other operating items -96 -243 -283 -265 -299 -337 -410 -443 -427 -442

EBITDA 24 35 72 48 65 71 84 64 121 131

Depreciation and amortisation -5 -13 -7 -8 -12 -12 -11 -51 -12 -12

Of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EBITA 19 23 65 40 53 59 72 13 109 119

EO items 0 0 0 -7 -3 -2 -14 -57 0 0

Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EBIT 19 23 65 40 53 59 72 13 109 119

Net financial items -7 -3 -6 -10 -5 -5 -16 -11 -9 -8

Pretax profit 12 20 59 30 48 54 56 3 100 111

Tax -6 -5 -13 -6 -11 -12 -12 -10 -22 -24

Net profit 5 15 46 25 37 41 44 -7 78 87

Minority interest -1 -2 -6 -7 -6 -5 -4 -2 -4 -4

Net profit discontinued 0 0 0 0 24 393 0 45 0 0

Net profit to shareholders 4 13 41 18 55 430 40 35 75 83

EPS 0.36 1.07 3.32 1.44 4.46 34.99 3.27 2.87 6.08 6.73

EPS Adj 0.36 1.07 3.32 1.97 2.69 3.13 4.40 3.85 6.08 6.73

Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0 -7 -3 -2 -14 -57 0 0

Leasing payments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tax rate (%) 54.3 25.9 21.3 19.4 22.7 23.1 21.6 378.6 22.0 22.0

Gross margin (%) 24.2 27.2 25.5 24.2 23.6 22.9 21.7 21.3 22.1 22.4

EBITDA margin (%) 4.8 3.5 5.2 3.7 4.2 4.0 3.7 2.7 4.9 5.1

EBITA margin (%) 3.8 2.2 4.7 3.1 3.4 3.3 3.2 0.6 4.4 4.7

EBIT margin (%) 3.8 2.2 4.7 3.1 3.4 3.3 3.2 0.6 4.4 4.7

Pretax margin (%) 2.3 1.9 4.2 2.3 3.1 3.0 2.5 0.1 4.0 4.3

Net margin (%) 1.1 1.4 3.3 1.9 2.4 2.3 1.9 -0.3 3.2 3.4

Growth rates Y/Y 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

Sales growth (%) 20.2 106.6 36.2 -7.0 19.2 15.5 27.6 4.7 4.2 3.2

EBITDA growth (%) 1.3 47.7 104.2 -32.9 34.1 9.7 17.3 -22.8 88.1 8.3

EBIT growth (%) -9.5 19.5 185.0 -37.9 30.8 12.4 22.2 -81.6 722.5 9.2

Net profit growth (%) -58.6 175.5 217.1 -47.1 49.8 12.5 6.3 -116.0 1,213.9 10.5

EPS growth (%) -65.6 197.7 211.5 -56.6 209.6 684.3 -90.6 -12.2 111.7 10.6

Profitability 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

ROE (%) 2.5 7.7 20.9 8.0 19.5 126.8 11.6 9.6 18.4 18.1

ROE Adj (%) 2.5 7.7 20.9 10.9 11.8 11.4 15.6 12.8 18.4 18.1

ROCE (%) 8.1 7.6 16.6 8.7 9.7 9.4 10.0 1.7 14.1 14.8

ROCE Adj(%) 8.1 7.6 16.6 10.2 10.1 9.7 11.9 9.0 14.1 14.8

ROIC (%) 4.1 5.8 12.8 7.0 7.7 7.3 8.4 -5.3 11.4 11.8

ROIC Adj (%) 4.1 5.8 12.8 8.1 8.0 7.6 10.0 -27.9 11.4 11.8

Adj earnings numbers 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

EBITDA Adj 24 35 72 55 68 73 97 121 121 131

EBITDA Adj margin (%) 4.8 3.5 5.2 4.2 4.4 4.1 4.3 5.1 4.9 5.1

EBITDA lease Adj 24 35 72 55 68 73 97 121 121 131

EBITDA lease Adj margin (%) 4.8 3.5 5.2 4.2 4.4 4.1 4.3 5.1 4.9 5.1

EBITA Adj 19 23 65 47 55 61 86 70 109 119

EBITA Adj margin (%) 3.8 2.2 4.7 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.8 2.9 4.4 4.7

EBIT Adj 19 23 65 47 55 61 86 70 109 119

EBIT Adj margin (%) 3.8 2.2 4.7 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.8 2.9 4.4 4.7

Pretax profit Adj 12 20 59 37 50 56 70 59 100 111

Net profit Adj 5 15 46 31 39 43 58 49 78 87

Net profit to shareholders Adj 4 13 41 24 33 39 54 47 75 83

Net Adj margin (%) 1.1 1.4 3.3 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.1 3.2 3.4

DistIT



Cash Flow Statement (SEKm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

EBITDA 24 35 72 48 65 71 84 64 121 131

Net financial items -7 -3 -6 -10 -5 -5 -16 -11 -9 -8

Paid tax -6 -5 -13 -6 -11 -12 -12 -10 -22 -24

Non-cash items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Cash flow before change in WC 10 27 54 33 49 53 55 44 90 99

Change in WC -17 -102 -69 -21 -64 -87 -13 -31 -86 8

Operating cash flow -7 -42 16 42 -29 12 70 21 74 77

CAPEX tangible fixed assets -12 -68 -28 -70 -42 -37 -68 -25 -12 -13

CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Free cash flow -18 -109 -13 -29 -71 -26 2 -4 61 64

Dividend paid -12 -15 -15 -18 -20 -34 0 -12 -25 -26

Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other non cash items -11 -26 2 1 116 -26 -27 13 -40 24

Decrease in net IB debt -30 -114 -9 -49 43 -71 -5 23 37 38

Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

Goodwill 23 55 69 100 93 127 135 118 119 119

Other intangible assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tangible fixed assets 51 51 50 49 47 48 49 50 50 51

Right-of-use asset 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total other fixed assets 12 11 9 8 38 9 10 11 11 11

Fixed assets 85 117 127 157 178 183 194 179 180 181

Inventories 99 214 259 310 361 403 488 503 528 551

Receivables 80 206 277 306 345 415 434 430 466 479

Other current assets 8 23 20 15 31 31 52 68 35 36

Cash and liquid assets 48 37 59 66 95 77 178 145 162 180

Total assets 319 596 742 855 1,010 1,109 1,345 1,326 1,370 1,426

Shareholders equity 172 169 222 221 340 338 355 383 429 481

Minority 0 0 0 0 8 16 20 22 26 30

Total equity 172 169 222 221 348 355 375 405 455 511

Long-term debt 77 179 210 267 252 305 411 355 335 315

Pension debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Convertible debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Leasing liability 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total other long-term liabilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Short-term debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Accounts payable 39 180 226 285 311 337 427 408 382 425

Other current liabilities 32 68 84 82 99 113 132 159 198 174

Total liabilities and equity 319 596 742 855 1,010 1,109 1,345 1,326 1,370 1,426

Net IB debt 28 142 152 200 157 228 233 210 173 136

Net IB debt excl. pension debt 28 142 152 200 157 228 233 210 173 136

Net IB debt excl. leasing 28 142 152 200 157 228 233 210 173 136

Capital invested 224 357 437 488 573 665 689 705 792 785

Working capital 139 241 310 331 395 482 494 526 612 604

EV breakdown 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

Market cap. diluted (m) 156 215 370 464 598 505 447 408 408 408

Net IB debt Adj 28 142 152 200 157 228 233 210 173 136

Market value of minority 0 0 0 0 8 16 24 27 31 36

Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EV 185 357 522 664 763 749 704 644 612 579

Capital efficiency 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

Total assets turnover (%) 166.5 223.1 207.9 162.1 165.4 168.0 185.1 178.1 183.9 183.1

Working capital/sales (%) 26.3 18.6 19.8 24.8 23.5 24.6 21.5 21.4 22.9 23.8

Financial risk and debt service 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

Net debt/equity 0.16 0.84 0.68 0.90 0.45 0.64 0.62 0.52 0.38 0.27

Net debt/market cap 0.19 0.66 0.50 0.50 0.30 0.34 0.49 0.51 0.42 0.33

Equity ratio (%) 53.8 28.4 29.9 25.9 34.5 32.0 27.9 30.5 33.2 35.9

Net IB debt adj./equity 0.16 0.84 0.68 0.90 0.45 0.64 0.62 0.52 0.38 0.27

Current ratio 3.30 1.93 1.98 1.90 2.03 2.06 2.06 2.03 2.05 2.08

EBITDA/net interest 3.23 11.77 12.22 4.94 12.73 13.19 5.15 5.99 13.66 15.67

Net IB debt/EBITDA 1.18 4.03 2.10 4.13 2.42 3.20 2.79 3.25 1.43 1.03

Net IB debt/EBITDA lease Adj 1.18 4.03 2.10 3.64 2.32 3.11 2.40 1.73 1.43 1.03

Interest cover 2.57 7.57 10.97 4.10 10.31 10.94 4.46 1.23 12.31 14.24

DistIT



Valuation and Ratios (SEKm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

Shares outstanding adj. 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

Fully diluted shares Adj 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

EPS 0.36 1.07 3.32 1.44 4.46 34.99 3.27 2.87 6.08 6.73

Dividend per share Adj 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.6 2.8 0 1.0 2.0 2.2 2.2

EPS Adj 0.36 1.07 3.32 1.97 2.69 3.13 4.40 3.85 6.08 6.73

BVPS 13.99 13.78 18.04 18.01 27.66 27.54 28.89 31.17 34.95 39.21

BVPS Adj 12.12 9.35 12.46 9.88 20.05 17.24 17.89 21.52 25.28 29.49

Net IB debt / share 2.3 11.6 12.3 16.3 12.8 18.6 19.0 17.1 14.1 11.0

Share price 12.72 17.49 30.14 37.77 48.70 41.10 36.40 33.20 33.20 33.20

Market cap. (m) 156 215 370 464 598 505 447 408 408 408

Valuation 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

P/E 35.5 16.4 9.1 26.2 10.9 1.2 11.1 11.6 5.5 4.9

EV/sales 0.37 0.35 0.38 0.51 0.49 0.42 0.31 0.27 0.25 0.23

EV/EBITDA 7.7 10.1 7.2 13.7 11.8 10.5 8.4 10.0 5.0 4.4

EV/EBITA 9.7 15.7 8.1 16.5 14.5 12.7 9.8 48.5 5.6 4.9

EV/EBIT 9.7 15.7 8.1 16.5 14.5 12.7 9.8 48.5 5.6 4.9

Dividend yield (%) 9.4 6.9 5.0 4.2 5.6 0 2.7 6.0 6.5 6.5

FCF yield (%) -11.8 -50.9 -3.4 -6.2 -11.9 -5.1 0.5 -0.9 15.0 15.7

Lease adj. FCF yield (%) -11.8 -50.9 -3.4 -6.2 -11.9 -5.1 0.5 -0.9 15.0 15.7

P/BVPS 0.91 1.27 1.67 2.10 1.76 1.49 1.26 1.07 0.95 0.85

P/BVPS Adj 1.05 1.87 2.42 3.82 2.43 2.38 2.03 1.54 1.31 1.13

P/E Adj 35.5 16.4 9.1 19.2 18.1 13.1 8.3 8.6 5.5 4.9

EV/EBITDA Adj 7.7 10.1 7.2 12.1 11.3 10.2 7.2 5.3 5.0 4.4

EV/EBITA Adj 9.7 15.7 8.1 14.2 13.8 12.3 8.2 9.2 5.6 4.9

EV/EBIT Adj 9.7 15.7 8.1 14.2 13.8 12.3 8.2 9.2 5.6 4.9

EV/cap. employed 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7

Investment ratios 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

Capex/sales 2.3 6.6 2.0 5.4 2.7 2.1 3.0 1.0 0.5 0.5

Capex/depreciation 234.7 538.9 383.8 857.3 338.2 307.4 600.0 48.8 103.3 106.7

Capex tangibles/tangible fixed assets 22.6 133.1 57.3 144.1 89.5 77.7 138.9 49.6 24.6 25.3

Capex intangibles/definite intangibles nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm

Depreciation on intangibles/definite intangibles nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm

Depreciation on tangibles/tangibles 9.6 24.7 14.9 16.8 26.5 25.3 23.2 101.6 23.8 23.7

DistIT


Analyst certification I/We, Oskar Vikström, the author(s) of this report, certify that not withstanding the existence of any such potential conflicts of interests referred to below, the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my/our personal view about the companies and securities covered in this report.

Analyst valuation methods ABG Sundal Collier analysts may publish valuation ranges for stocks covered under Company Sponsored Research. These valuation ranges rely on various valuation methods. One of the most frequently used methods is the valuation of a company by calculation of that company's discounted cash flow (DCF). Another valuation method is the analysis of a company's return on capital employed relative to its cost of capital.

Finally, the analysts may analyse various valuation multiples (e.g. the P/E multiples and the EV/EBITDA multiples) relative to global industry peers. In special cases, particularly for property companies and investment companies, the ratio of price to net asset value is considered. Valuation ranges may be changed when earnings and cash flow forecasts are changed. They may also be changed when the underlying value

of a company's assets changes (in the cases of investment companies, property companies or insurance companies) or when factors impacting the required rate of return change.

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mo

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Production of report: 30/10/2019 17:33 CET.

All prices are as of market close on 28 October, 2019 unless otherwise noted.

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DistIT AB DistIT AB DistIT AB DistIT AB DistIT AB DistIT AB DistIT AB DistIT AB DistIT AB DistIT AB DistIT AB DistIT AB DistIT AB

DistIT


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DistIT AB

DistIT


ABGSC Research Department Joint Global Head of Research

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DistIT AB

Date post:	01-Aug-2020
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DistIT - Introduce · DistIT’s Q3’19 figures came in surprisingly weak. Sales were SEK 539m...

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