ITRPV

Dr. Jutta Trube

• Division Manager, VDMA Sector Group Photovoltaic Equipment since 12-2015

• Responsible for the International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics (ITRPV)

• Vice Managing Director, VDMA Sector Association Electronics, Micro and New Energy Production Technologies

• More than 20 years experience as R&D Director in vacuum equipment manufacturing

• Studied Physics in Göttingen & PhD in electro technical engineering in Berlin

Aug. 8th, 2020

| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 1 |

ITRPV

Current trends and future challenges in

c-Si PV with results of the 11th Edition of

ITRPV and PV production technology

Aug. 8th, 2020

| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 2 |

Source: www.siemens.com/presse

Dr. Jutta Trube

VDMA, Frankfurt, Germany

SNEC, August 8th 2020

ITRPV

VDMA Largest Industry Association

Representation of Interests, Services, Network

Running ITRPV with yearly updates

Aug. 8th, 2020

| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 3 |

Leading Federation of European Engineering

ITRPV

Outline

| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 4 | Aug. 8th, 2020

1. ITRPV – Status and PV learning Curve

2. ITRPV – Results 2019- Crystallization & Wafering - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Smart Fab Status- Systems

3. Outlook and Summary

ITRPV

ITRPV – Methodology / Status

Aug. 8th, 2020

| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 5 |

Participating companies

Independent data collection / processing

by VDMA

Review of dataPreparation of publication

regional chairsNext ITRPV edition

SILICON CRYSTAL. WAFER CELL SYSTEMMODULE

Parameters in main areas are discussed Diagrams of median values

Photovoltaic Equipment

Chairs PRC

Chairs IND

Chairs TW

Chairs US

Chairs EU

11th edition: > 57 contributors from Asia, Europe, and US

ITRPV

PV learning curve

| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 6 | Aug. 8th, 2020

Shipments /avg. module price at year end:

2018: 109 GWp / 0.24 US$/Wp2019: 130 GWp / 0.23 US$/Wp

o/a shipment: ≈ 654 GWpo/a installation: ≈ 628 GWp

LR 23.5 % (1976 …. 2019)LR 40.0 % (2006 …. 2019)

high volume shipped w/ increased product diversity Significant change in module concepts

Price learning continued

12/2017

01/2020 500 GWp

ITRPV

Price calculation (year end values): mono-Si share increased; now dominating

mono-Si / mc-Si share = 65% / 35% 0.23 $ /Wp

PV learning curve current trendsPrice reductions continues

| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 7 | Aug. 8th, 2020

Mono pricing is dominating the avg.- price reduction of mono-Si modules YoY: ≈ 7%- price reduction of mc-Si modules YoY: ≈ 10%

Module conversion causes > 50% of PV module pricing

mc-Si p-type

mono p-type

mono n-type

ITRPV

Outline

| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 8 | Aug. 8th, 2020

1. ITRPV – Status and PV learning Curve

2. ITRPV – Results 2019- Crystallization & Wafering - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Smart Fab Status- Systems

3. Outlook and Summary

ITRPV

Wafer: Materials /Process – wafering

| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 9 | Aug. 8th, 2020

Trend: wafer thickness Trend: poly-Si utilization

Poly-Si utilization 2020 15.2 g / mono-Si wafer 14.4 g / mc-Si wafer

kerf loss (w/DWS) 2020 2030 70 µm 50 µm

TTV will improve to ≈ 10 µm

mono wafer thickness reduction materializes! 2020 2030

PERx: p/n-type 170 µm 150 µmHJT: n-type 150 µm ≈ 120 µm HJT can use thinner wafers

Trend : kerf loss in wafering

ITRPV

Wafer: Product - market share of wafer sizes

| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 10 | Aug. 8th, 2020

Trend: mc-Si wafer size several new formats appear

Trend: mono-Si wafer size mono will faster use bigger formats

New module formats are flooding the market Standardization is required

• M2 is disappearing• G1 and M4 will keep share possible w/ upgrades of existing cell tools• M6 and larger, up to M12 will dominate future requires new tools with new fabs

≥ M6

G1M2

M4

≥ M6G1

M2

M4

ITRPV

Outline

| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 11 | Aug. 8th, 2020

1. ITRPV – Status and PV learning Curve

2. ITRPV – Results 2019- Crystallization & Wafering - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Smart Fab Status- Systems

3. Outlook and Summary

ITRPV

Cell: Product – market share of cell technologies

| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 12 | Aug. 8th, 2020

Trend: share of cell technologies • BSF 30% share in 2019 (mc-Si) will disappear after 2024

• PERx (incl. passivated contacts) >65% share in 2019 market mainstream in coming years on p- and n- type

• Si- heterojunction (SHJ) 2% in 2019 >15% in 2030

• Back contact concepts 2 % in 2019 5% in 2029

• Si-Tandem expected after 2023 onwards

PERx - technologies will stay PV working horse(2019 ITRPV data are similar to IHS Markit)

IBC

BSF

PERx / TOPCON

SHJ

Tandem

Bifacial Bifacial cells will gain share 20% in 2020 80% in 2030

Bifacial ready

Monofacial

ITRPV

Cell: Process – metallization trends

| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 13 | Aug. 8th, 2020

Silver reduction will continue 90 mg Ag for p-type cells (G1 format) n-type concepts require more Ag

Measures: - reduction of finger width more bus bars- finger width 40µm 20µm in 2030- Single-print still mainstream, Dual-print gains share

avg. module power 330W labeled ; ** Assumption ≈ 30,800t / 991.8 MOz 2019 market https://www.silverinstitute.org/all-world-silver-surveys/

BB trend: 5 BB+ is mainstream 3/4 BB will disappear

Rear side Al trend:850mg for mono-facial 200mg for bifacial

bifacial uses 25% only

Trend: remaining Silver Trend: number of bus bars

Trend: remaining Aluminum

330W (120HC/1.7m²) ≈ 5.5 W/ cell * ≈ 16.4 t / GWp ≈ 2130 t @130GW = 6.9 % of world Silver market 2019**Photography 1996: 40% of annual Silver market**

March 2020: 560 US$/kg ≈ 0.92 $cent/ Wp*

3 /4 BB

5 BB

BB less

6++ BB

ITRPV

Cell: Product – cell efficiencies in mass production

| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 14 | Aug. 8th, 2020

Trend: cell efficiencies in production n-type leads in efficiency with SHJ and IBC

Trend: Cell fab size 5GW will be min. Fab size

2020 2024 2030mc-Si PERC: 20.8% 21.4% 22.0%p-mono PERC: 22.8 23.2 24.0%n-mono PERX / passivated contacts: 23.1% 24.0% 24.5% may bridge the gap to SHJ SHJ: 23.8% 24.5% 25.0%Tandem: - 27.0% 29.0% expected in 2024

2 GW

≤ 2 GW

≥ 5 GW

ITRPV

Outline

| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 15 | Aug. 8th, 2020

1. ITRPV – Status and PV learning Curve

2. ITRPV – Results 2019- Crystallization & Wafering - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Smart Fab Status- Systems

3. Outlook and Summary

ITRPV

Module: Product – module technology

| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 16 | Aug. 8th, 2020

Trend: cell dimensions

half cell share will increase module formats and sizes are diversifyinghigher power: w/ larger modules w/ larger cells

half cell

full cell

1/3, 1/5, 1/6 … cell

Trend: CTM

1-1.5 % difference mc- / mono-Si 2 % CTM boost for half-cell module

mono – multi

full – half

ITRPV

Module: Product –module power in mass production

| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 17 | Aug. 8th, 2020

Trend: Module power “60-cell” (G1) format 1.7 m² (all half-cell data)

p-PERC n-PER/TC SHJ2020 half-cell: 345 Wp 355 Wp 360 Wp2024 half-cell: 355 Wp 365 Wp 370 Wp

Trend: Module power “72 cell” (G1) format 2.0 m² full cell (open symbols): lower power

p-PERC n-PER/TC SHJ2020 half cell: 415 Wp 425 Wp 430 Wp2024 half cell: 425 Wp 435 Wp 445 Wp 2024 full cell: 417 Wp

halffull

ITRPV

Module: Product – product warranty

| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 18 | Aug. 8th, 2020

Modules quality improves

improvements cell:- overcome LID by Ga doping- introduction of 9, 12 busbars- AOI

improvements module:- PID resistant encapsulation- half cell technology- MES

Trend: product warranty 2020 2022 2030 1st year degradation: >2% 2% 2% performance warranty: 25y 25y 30y product warranty: 12y 15y 15y

warranty conditions will improve

ITRPV

Outline

| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 19 | Aug. 8th, 2020

1. ITRPV – Status and PV learning Curve

2. ITRPV – Results 2019- Crystallization & Wafering - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Smart Fab Status- Systems

3. Outlook and Summary

ITRPV

Smart fab trends – throughput / OEE / AOI

| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 20 | Aug. 8th, 2020

Trend: cell process tool throughput

wet keeps the lead >10.000 wf/h soon metallization continues impressive progress thermal processing is still behind

Trend: Overall equipment efficiency (OEE)

Trend: Work in progress (WIP) tracking standard

Will the throughput figures be valid for ≥ M8….M12?

2020 / 2024chemical: 92.5% / 95%metallization: 92% / 94%thermal: 90% / 92.5%

carrier and wafer tracking will become mandatory

link cell to module tracability will be enabled

ITRPV

Smart fab trends – in-line process control /MES

| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 21 | Aug. 8th, 2020

Trend: in-line inspection in module lines

EL is standard AOI of cells in stringing is in implementation

Fab automation + machine learning will maintain high quality PV products

Trend: in-line process control

printer inspection will lead other inspection at lower share

ITRPV

Outline

| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 22 | Aug. 8th, 2020

1. ITRPV – Status and PV learning Curve

2. ITRPV – Results 2019- Crystallization & Wafering - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Smart Fab Status- Systems

3. Outlook and Summary

ITRPV

System components: application areas

| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 23 | Aug. 8th, 2020

Trend: end-use PV installations

power plant installations stay core application Rooftop share will stay stable Niches: floating PV, building integrated PV

Trend: system voltage

Trend: trackers

1500V

1000V

1-axis tracking

no tracking

Floating PV

power plants

rooftop installations

Building integrated

1500V will become mainstream

1 axis tracking well established but not dominating

VDMA | Dr. Jutta Trube

Systems: LCOE and system trends

Trend: LCOE in different insolation regions2019: China coal-fired power cost***: 4.0 $ct/kWh2020: Germany PV auction – avg.**: 5.4 $ct/kWh

Germany PV auction – min.**: 3.8 $ct/kWh2021: AbuDhabi 1.5GW tender 2020*: 1.35 $ct/Wp

2019: IRENA****weighted avg. LCOE: 6.8 $ct/kwh PV showed steepest learning in renewables PV enables competitive subsidy free LCOE

Aug. 8th, 2020

Page 24 |

* ~1.35 $ct/kWh Abu Dhabi’s 1.5 GW tender draws world record low solar bid: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/04/28/abu-dhabis-2-gw-tender-draws-world-record-solar-bid-of-0-0135-kwh/?utm_source=pv+magazine+USA&utm_campaign=ec3feac75c-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_80e0d17bb8-ec3feac75c-158960861** 3.8 $ct/kWh (3.55 €ct) avg. bid February 2020 in Germany (1000 kWh/kWp)** 5.4 $ct/kWh (5.01€ct/kWh) in avg. https://www.pv-tech.org/news/prices-fall-below-4-cent-per-kwh-mark-at-german-solar-auction*** 4.0 $ct /kWh = 0. 283 Yuan/kWh for coal fire power plant (ECOPV data in WSC webinar)****6.8 4$ct/kWh IRENA (2020), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2019, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi.. ISBN 978-92-9260-244-4; www.Irena.org/download

ITRPV

Outline

| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 25 | Aug. 8th, 2020

1. ITRPV – Status and PV learning Curve

2. ITRPV – Results 2019- Crystallization & Wafering - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Smart Fab Status- Systems

3. Outlook and Summary

ITRPV

PV today and in future

| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 26 | Aug. 8th, 2020

Different calculated scenarios in 11th edition:BNEF NEO 2019 Breyer (“Electricity”) Breyer (“Broad electrification”)low: 7.6 TWp/ 9.3 PWh (22% global electricity) high: 22 TWp/ 38 PWh (69% global electricity) mix: 63 TWp/ 104PWh (69% global energy)

market peak:400+GWp / 2050 market peak: 1,400+GWp /2050 market peak:4,500+ GW/ 2050 Shipments 2019 were close to approaches!

ITRPV finding:- PV learning continues and progresses, but market will remain volatile esp. in Corona season Several 100GW markets are ahead, and can be served based on todays PV technologies Further effort is required to meet x TWp market requirements!

ITRPV will provide also in future guidance to handle the PV challenges

ITRPV

Thank youThank you

for your attention!to all contributors!

Page 27 | Aug. 8th, 2020

| Dr. Jutta Trube

Visit us at itrpv.org

Free download of roadmap and presentationSource: www.siemens.com/presse