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Do Casinos Cause Crime?
An ARIMA AnalysisAdam Jacobs
Department of SociologyUniversity of Wisconsin
Existing Research
• 1975 and 1998 National Commissions on Gambling note lack of conclusive research of gambling/crime link
• Extensive economic literature on multipliers, community development, addiction and choice
• Hakim studies (deposited at ICPSR)– Widely cited in lit reviews– Data problems
Background• Huge growth of gambling
and casinos nationwide• IGRA (1988) allows
Indian casinos• Most states have lotteries
and legal casinos• Growth of online casinos• Development strategy for
poor and/or remote areas– Detroit– Indian Reservations– Rust Belt
The debate on gambling
• Positive• Employment• Tax base• Non-seasonal
economy• Secondary
development (e.g. housing)
• “On the map”
• Negative• Addiction• Traffic/transport
problems• Cost of living/real
estate speculation• Quality of
life/dependence• Crime (?)
Theory – Why Would Casinos Cause Crime
• Routine Activity– Suitable Target, Motivated Offender, Lack of
Guardians– Out of town visitors, carrying cash, often drinking
• Relative Deprivation– Casinos bring conspicuous wealth to impoverished
areas• Secondary vice markets
– Vices go together– Growth/maintenance of drug markets, pimping
Ecological and PsychologicalFactors
• Increasing density• Increased stranger-to-stranger interaction• Self-contained nature of casinos • Gambling is anomic?
– National Commission found communities with casinos had higher rates of divorce and suicide
– Causal order problem: depressed places pursue gambling as development; these places may already have higher rates
Largest casino areas in US
• Las Vegas, NV– Problem: legalized gambling precedes
development of UCR• Tunica, MS
– Problem: did not report data to the UCR during the relevant time period (late 80s)
• Atlantic City, NJ– Best choice: good data from UCR and
extensive previous research on this area
Methods
• Interrupted Time-Series Analysis• ARIMA
– AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average– AR: Effect of previous levels on current level– I: Level of differencing required to get a
stationary series– MA: unweighted average of one or more
previous terms
ARIMA model
• The causes of crime are endogenous to the model
• Rather than specifying factors causing crime (employment, gender ratio), we specify a model for the long-term trend
• H0: Casinos has no effect on crime rate• ARIMA specifies the overall level of growth
(if any) and the effect (if any) of outside shocks
What can ARIMA answer?
• What is the long-term trend in crime?• Does the introduction of casinos change
this trend?• If so, is the change:
– Permanent or temporary?– Abrupt or gradual?
Data
• UCR monthly offenses – We would suspect property crimes will be
most affected:• Car theft• Larceny• Robbery
– Because total crime is so heavily weighted to larceny, we will consider theft and non-theft offenses separately
ARIMA model
• Stationary series • Examination of correlogram• Specification of autoregression, moving
average, difference parameters– Usually these are either 1 or 0; 2nd and 3rd
order autoregression are fairly uncommon– We already know that the difference
parameters is 1• ARIMA = (?,?,?)
Total Crime and Theft0
500
1000
1500
2000
Tota
l num
ber o
f inc
iden
ts
0 20 40 60 80 100Month
Source: Uniform Crime Reports
Casinos introduced in month 42 of seriesTotal Crime and Theft in Atlantic City, NJ, Jan 1975-Dec 1982
Non-theft crimes10
020
030
040
050
060
0To
tal n
umbe
r of i
ncid
ents
0 20 40 60 80 100Month
Source: Uniform Crime Reports
Casinos introduced in month 42 of seriesTotal Non-Theft Crime
Differenced Crime Levels-4
00-2
000
200
400
Dev
iatio
n
0 20 40 60 80 100Month
Source: Uniform Crime Reports
Casinos Introduced in Month 42 of seriesDifferenced Theft in Atlantic City
Differenced Non-Theft-1
000
100
200
devi
atio
n
0 20 40 60 80 100Month
Source: Uniform Crime Reports
Casinos introduced in month 42 of seriesDifferenced Non Theft Crime
Seasonal Differencing – Theft-4
00-2
000
200
400
Dev
iatio
n
0 20 40 60 80 100Month
Source: Uniform Crime Reports
Casinos Introduced in Month 42 of seriesSeasonally Differenced Theft in Atlantic City
Seasonal Differencing – Non-Theft-2
00-1
000
100
200
devi
atio
n
0 20 40 60 80 100Month
Source: Uniform Crime Reports
Casinos introduced in month 42 of seriesSeasonally Differenced Nontheft Offenses
Characteristics of the Data
• Seasonality• Apparent increase in crime levels in casino
era– Is this significant?– If so, is it a one-time jump or gradual growth?
• Best described by a seasonal ARIMA model
ARIMA model specification
Stationary series • Examination of correlogram• Specification of autoregression, moving
average, difference parameters– We already know that the difference
parameters is 1• ARIMA = (?,1,?)
Autocorrelation graph (correlogram) for larceny
-0.6
0-0
.40
-0.2
00.
000.
200.
40Au
toco
rrel
atio
ns o
f DS1
2.la
rcen
y
0 10 20 30 40Lag
Bartlett's formula for MA(q) 95% confidence bands
Theft and Non-Theft have different trends, though both are clearly seasonal
050
010
0015
00
0 20 40 60 80 100id
larceny nontheft
ARIMA specification
Stationary series Examination of variagram• Specification of parameters:
– Theft: Seasonal moving average model• Current level of theft depends on inputs from last
month and this time last year• Theftt = at –B1at-1 – B2at-12 – B1*B2at-13
– Nontheft: seasonal autoregression
So Do Casinos Cause Crime?
• To answer this, we’ll introduce two interruption terms to measure short term and long term effects
• Examining the graphs, the interruption appears 2 years after the casino’s introduction
Results from larceny ARIMA
• ARIMA regression
• Sample: 13 to 96 Number of obs = 84• Wald chi2(2) = 35.53• Log likelihood = -513.4215 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
• ------------------------------------------------------------------------------• | OPG• S12.larceny | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]• -------------+----------------------------------------------------------------• Interruption | 259.5194 45.76395 5.67 0.000 169.8237 349.2151• _cons | 64.30593 15.04811 4.27 0.000 34.81219 93.79968• -------------+----------------------------------------------------------------• ARMA12 |• ma |• L1. | -.325136 .1596493 -2.04 0.042 -.6380427 -.0122292• -------------+----------------------------------------------------------------• /sigma | 108.3422 11.50894 9.41 0.000 85.7851 130.8993• ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Results from Nontheft ARIMA
• ARIMA regression• Sample: 2 to 96 Number of obs = 95• Wald chi2(2) = 18.30• Log likelihood = -501.8218 Prob > chi2 = 0.0001
• ------------------------------------------------------------------------------• | OPG• D.nontheft | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]• -------------+----------------------------------------------------------------• interruption | -7.89021 12.86408 -0.61 0.540 -33.10334 17.32292• _cons | 6.47043 9.815005 0.66 0.510 -12.76663 25.70749• -------------+----------------------------------------------------------------• Seasonal AR |• L1. | .4379765 .1047591 4.18 0.000 .2326524 .6433006• -------------+----------------------------------------------------------------• /sigma | 46.9898 3.962207 11.86 0.000 39.22402 54.75558• ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
• .
Gradual or abrupt?
• ARIMA regression
• Sample: 14 to 96 Number of obs = 83• Wald chi2(3) = 125.29• Log likelihood = -497.4252 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
• ------------------------------------------------------------------------------• | OPG• S12.larceny | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]• -------------+----------------------------------------------------------------• Interruption | -30.35914 78.73046 -0.39 0.700 -184.668 123.9497• Delta | .4701114 .0842888 5.58 0.000 .3049084 .6353144• _cons | 53.64972 8.114049 6.61 0.000 37.74648 69.55297• -------------+----------------------------------------------------------------• ARMA12 |• ma |• L1. | -.876413 .2837159 -3.09 0.002 -1.432486 -.3203401• -------------+----------------------------------------------------------------• /sigma | 88.0626 12.30615 7.16 0.000 63.943 112.1822• ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conclusions• Casinos are associated with a statistically
significant increase in larceny– Increase is gradual and permanent– (at least during this short time series)– Onset is approximately 2 years after first casino
opens, consistent with gradual growth of AC• Casinos have little effect on nontheft crimes
– Growth in nontheft crimes is entirely due to autoregression, with no perceptible effect of casino introduction
– Analysis of specific crimes like car theft and robbery confirms this
Effect of casinos• Casino growth has very little effect on non-theft
crime• This is consistent with Routine Activity Theory
and the Problem-Oriented Policing Paradigm– Greatest focus on items that are disposable,
concealable, easily removable, high value– No effects on overall trends of house burglary, car
theft, murder– Offenses like robbery grow but apparently
independently of casino development – no significant interruption in series
Revisiting the graphs0
500
1000
1500
0 20 40 60 80 100index variable = 0 for Jan 1975
Theft offenses non-theft offenses
Further Implications
• Debate over casinos often focuses on potential crime increases
• Casinos do not appear to increase violent crimes
• Casinos have a strong impact on theft, probably owing to increased opportunity
• Location may be crucial: downtown versus Indian casinos in the country
Problems• Spuriousness
– Increased tax base leads to more police, leading to more detection/arrests
• Daytime population fluctuations– Increase may be just proportional to visitor population
• Displacement– As casinos raise real estate prices, crime may move further out
• Political pressure on statistics– Officials/casino operators may want low crime stats
• Measurement– Organized crime/corruption not recorded
• National trends– Late 70s/early 80s a period of crime growth everywhere
Further Research
• Native casino versus commercial/corporate entities
• Rural versus urban• Addiction and secondary crime from
gambling addiction (domestic abuse, white-collar crime)
• Effects of market saturation
Other issues
• Comparison of different gambling mediums (lottery vs casinos vs online cardrooms)
• Compare additional locations (Council Bluffs, IA, Cripple Creek, CO, Deadwood, SD, Hammond, IN)– Some locations are too small to get reasonable crime
data (< 1500 population)• International research
– Casinos have a different social position in Europe– Growth in Asia (Macau)