Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: ICR00003678 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT (SRF‐CTF GRANT TF014613) ON A GRANT IN THE AMOUNT OF US$8 MILLION TO THE LAO PEOPLE’S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC FOR A LAOSTAT‐STRENGTHENING THE NATIONAL STATISTICAL SYSTEM PROJECT September 21, 2018 Macroeconomics, Trade, And Investment Global Practice East Asia And Pacific Region Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized
Transcript
Document of
The World Bank
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Report No: ICR00003678
IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT
(SRF‐CTF GRANT TF014613)
ON A
GRANT
IN THE AMOUNT OF US$8 MILLION
TO THE
LAO PEOPLE’S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC
FOR A
LAOSTAT‐STRENGTHENING THE NATIONAL STATISTICAL SYSTEM PROJECT
September 21, 2018
Macroeconomics, Trade, And Investment Global Practice
East Asia And Pacific Region
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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS
(Exchange Rate Effective as of September 21, 2018)
Currency Unit = Lao Kip (LAK)
US$1 = LAK 8,523
FISCAL YEAR
July 1 ‐ June 30
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
ADB Asian Development Bank
AHS Annual Household Survey
BOL Bank of Lao PDR
BOP Balance of Payment
BPM Balance of Payment Manual
CSTA Consulting Service Technical Assistance
CPF Country Partnership Framework
CPI Consumer Price Index
CPS Country Partnership Strategy
CSPro Census and Survey Processing System
FDI Foreign Direct Investment
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GNI Gross National Income
GOL Government of Lao PDR
GVA Gross Value Added
ICR Implementation Completion and Results Report
ICT Information and Communication Technology
IMF International Monetary Fund
IIP International Investment Position
IRR Internal Rate of Return
ISR Implementation Status and Results Report
IT Information Technology
LAOSTAT Lao PDR’s Strengthening the National Statistical System Project
LCPA Lao Classification of Products by Activity
LECS Household Expenditure and Consumption Survey
LSB Lao Statistics Bureau
M&E Monitoring and Evaluation
MDG Millennium Development Goal
MEM Ministry of Energy and Mines
MMFT Macroeconomic Monitoring and Forecasting Team
MOIC Ministry of Industry and Commerce
MOF Ministry of Finance
MOLSW Ministry of Labour and Social Welfare
MPI Ministry of Planning and Investment
NIER National Institute of Economic Research
NPV Net Present Value
NSEDP National Socio‐Economic Development Plan
NUOL National University of Laos
PDO Project Development Objective
PSC Project Steering Committee
SCI Statistical Capacity Index
SDNSS Strategy for Development of the National Statistical System
SIDA Swedish International Development Agency
SMA Sectoral Ministry and Agency
SMS Statistical Metadata System
SNA System of National Accounts
SPSS Statistical Package for the Social Sciences
SQL Structured Query Language
SRF‐CF Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund
SUT Supply and Use Table
SWG Statistical Working Group
Regional Vice President: Victoria Kwakwa
Country Director: Ellen A. Goldstein
Senior Global Practice Director: John Panzer
Practice Manager: Deepak K. Mishra
Task Team Leader(s): Somneuk Davading
ICR Main Contributor: Konesawang Nghardsaysone
TABLE OF CONTENTS
DATA SHEET ............................................................................................................................ 1
I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ....................................................... 5
A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL ....................................................................................................... 5
B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION (IF APPLICABLE) ................................. 10
II. OUTCOME ...................................................................................................................... 10
A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs .......................................................................................................... 10
B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) ................................................................................... 11
C. EFFICIENCY ......................................................................................................................... 17
D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING ................................................................. 18
E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY) ........................................................................ 19
III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME ................................ 19
A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION ................................................................................ 19
B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION .......................................................................... 20
IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .. 20
A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) ......................................................... 20
B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE ................................................. 22
C. BANK PERFORMANCE ........................................................................................................ 22
D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .................................................................................... 23
V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .............................................................................. 24
ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ............................................................ 25
ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION ......................... 35
ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT............................................................................. 37
Lao People's Democratic Republic Lao Statistics Bureau (LSB)
Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO
10. The objective of the Project is to improve the capacity of the Recipient’s national statistical system to produce and disseminate reliable and timely macroeconomic and poverty statistics in accordance with international standards and in response to user needs.
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FINANCING
Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$)
World Bank Financing TF‐14613
8,000,000 7,980,215 7,980,215
Total 8,000,000 7,980,215 7,980,215
Non‐World Bank Financing
Borrower 0 0 0
Foreign Multilateral Institutions (unidentified)
0 0 0
Total 0 0 0
Total Project Cost 8,000,000 7,980,215 7,980,215
KEY DATES
Approval Effectiveness MTR Review Original Closing Actual Closing
07‐May‐2013 05‐Jul‐2013 30‐Jun‐2017 28‐Feb‐2018
RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING
Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions
06‐Jun‐2017 6.26 Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Reallocation between Disbursement Categories
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Economic Policy 0
Fiscal Policy 9
Fiscal sustainability 3
Public Expenditure Policy 3
Tax policy 3
Macro‐financial policies 9
External Finance 3
Monetary and Credit Policies 3
Macroeconomic Resilience 3
Public Sector Management 0
Public Administration 35
Administrative and Civil Service Reform 17
E‐Government, incl. e‐services 18
Data Development and Capacity Building 47
Data production, accessibility and use 47
ADM STAFF
Role At Approval At ICR
Regional Vice President: Axel van Trotsenburg Victoria Kwakwa
Country Director: Annette Dixon Ellen A. Goldstein
Senior Global Practice Director: Sudhir Shetty John Panzer
Practice Manager: Mathew A. Verghis Deepak K. Mishra
Task Team Leader(s): Somneuk Davading Somneuk Davading
ICR Contributing Author: Konesawang Nghardsaysone
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I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES
A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL
Context
1. At the time of appraisal, Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) was at an early stage of transition from a centrally planned to a market‐oriented economy. The country’s output grew at an annual average rate of 7.9 percent between 2007 and 2012, driven primarily by mining and hydropower sectors and moderate contribution from light manufacturing, agriculture, tourism and services. With a gross national income (GNI) per capita of US$1,380, Lao PDR graduate from a low‐income to a lower‐middle‐income economy in 2012. Poverty incidence was halved from 46 percent in 1993 to 28 percent in 2008. Some economic reforms in the country had focused on market‐oriented foundations that allowed the emergence of domestic private sector and inflows of foreign direct investments (FDIs). Lao PDR also began to open the country to international trade and commenced the WTO accession process, following decades of isolation. However, with a growth model based on natural resources, there were concerns on the inclusiveness and sustainability of the development process.
2. Against this context, the Government of Lao PDR (GOL) pursued a broad‐based growth strategy with focus on poverty reduction in the Seventh National Socio‐Economic Development Plan (NSEDP) for 2011–2015. The NSEDP emphasized the need for reducing social inequities and building stronger capacity to manage the country’s rich natural resources. It emphasized informed policy making and evidence‐based economic policies. Subsequently, the Strategy for Development of the National Statistical System (SDNSS) 2011–2020 was approved in September 2010. The Strategy was meant to help the GOL take more informed decisions in formulating and monitoring economic policies and public service delivery, supported by a statistical system that is credible, timely and accessible. The country had made some progress in building the basic statistical foundation between the 1990s and 2000s, thereby producing statistics on population, sectoral, and economic census, as well as some macroeconomic statistics, including national accounts by the production approach.
3. Lao PDR’s national statistics system, however, lagged countries with a similar per capita income in three important dimensions. First, there was a limited availability of statistics, on variables such as investment, private consumption, labor force, business registry, manufacturing, and retailing statistics. Second, it suffered from poor quality and timeliness of key statistics, including national accounts, international trade, balance of payment (BOP), sectoral output, and investment. And, third, the available statistics were not accessible to public since there was no central database containing consolidated macroeconomic and time‐series data within the GOL. In addition, there was also a limited use of statistical data across government and limited independence of the production process, conditioned by the legacy of a planned economy in Lao PDR.
4. The GOL requested the World Bank’s support to modernize and streamline its national statistical system. Specifically, the objectives were to improve human resource capacity, essential tools, and infrastructure to effectively produce and disseminate reliable and good quality statistics. The Prime Minister’s Decree no.51/PM (2011) provided the legal basis for upgrading the Department of Statistics to the Lao Statistics Bureau (LSB) headed by a vice minister and included four newly created departments with a massive increase in new staff. This created significant need for capacity building. These objectives were highlighted in the needs assessment for the SDNSS and the evaluation of the statistical capacity support from the Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA) to LSB at the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI). These objectives were also aligned with
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and supported by the NSEDP. LSB already benefited from some initial supports of the World Bank on improvement of household expenditure and consumption survey (LECS) processes and some capacity building activities by a technical assistance on statistical capacity building (STATCAP).
5. Major gaps in the national statistical system included the capacity to gather, analyze, and interpret, data from both administrative and surveyed sources. While a Law on Statistics was enacted in 2010, Lao PDR’s statistical system remained highly decentralized with limited interagency coordination and weak statistical capacity. The LSB had limited statistical capacity that delayed complete adoption of the System of National Accounts (SNA) 1993 and statistics production was still on a piecemeal basis. The limited analytical capacity of LSB constrained the use of statistics from both administrative and surveyed sources. Many specific surveys, including the population census, economic census, three rounds of LECSs were already conducted by the GOL but survey methodologies required further optimization especially for questionnaire designs and sampling frame. In a highly decentralized statistical system, the lack of effective and timely inter‐ministerial coordination and communication led to delays in the production of national accounts every year. Poor statistical collection and reporting at the provincial and district levels compromised the quality and timeliness of data. While the GOL had a clear policy framework of the national statistical system, the lack of professional statisticians at all levels of administrative structure prevented effective and efficient collection, analysis, and interpretation of statistics for evidence‐based policy making.
6. The World Bank’s involvement in strengthening the national statistical system in Lao PDR was fully aligned with the 2011–2015 Country Partnership Strategy (CPS). It incorporated the IDA 15–16 Results Measurement System and the Seventh NSEDP for the relevance of providing information and statistical support to monitor development targets and performance indicators of these strategies as well as for formulating and updating development policies. In addition, the World Bank’s support was also in line with the Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund (SRF‐CF) that provided support to developing countries,i including Lao PDR, to help them improve their statistical capacity. It was a continued support building on capacity foundation made through the past support of the STATCAP.
Theory of Change (Results Chain)
7. Lao PDR’s Strengthening the National Statistical System Project (LAOSTAT) responded to the GOL’s request to improve the capacity of the national statistical system. It aimed at producing and disseminating reliable and timely macroeconomic and poverty statistics that follow international standards and respond to the needs of users.
8. The project was expected to have significant economic impact. During the project’s lifetime, Lao PDR’s was expected to achieve 8 percent annual growth, driven by expansionary development in the mining and hydropower sectors and improvements in manufacturing and services. Poverty incidence was expected to be reduced by 9 percentage points from 28 percent in 2008 to 19 percent in 2015. Strengthening the production and dissemination of macroeconomic and poverty statistics in the country was expected to help the GOL fulfill its commitments to improve measurement of and monitor development targets and result indicators in the Seventh NSEDP. The national statistical system of Lao PDR could be strengthened to produce quality macroeconomic and poverty statistics on time, which could be widely disseminated to users and the public. The project was expected to support LSB and to contribute to higher‐quality macroeconomic and poverty statistics that would help provide more accurate and consistent measurement and monitoring of macroeconomic performance and efforts in poverty reduction. Access to and availability of these statistics would also allow users
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to perform specific and high‐level economic assessment of macro and micro links for inclusiveness and poverty reduction.
9. Improved capacity to produce macroeconomic and poverty statistics in accordance with internationally accepted standards was to be achieved through strengthening macroeconomic and poverty data development and management. Data development and management for national accounts, relevant macroeconomic statistics, and household surveys would be strengthened to generate quality statistics on time to monitor macroeconomic health and risks. These statistics were also used for planning and evaluating of the economic and social development program. The development of national accounts data would use the expenditure approach. Other relevant macroeconomic statistics would be compiled in line with international standards. Poverty statistics would be improved through some adjustments in the LECS. Data analysis aimed at macroeconomic research and modeling as well as gender‐related analysis. The LSB and sectoral ministerial agencies (SMAs)ii would use more internationally accepted standards and methodologies in data collection, compilation, classification, and validation.
10. Improved dissemination of macroeconomic and poverty statistics in response to user needs was to be achieved through improvements in data sharing and access. At the end of the project, the LSB and statistical units of SMAs would implement an appropriate data sharing and access to information strategy with adequate physical infrastructure and equipment. It would also upgrade the LSB web portal for improved dissemination. A clear business processes and information management would be implemented by LSB through an adoption of modernized information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructure and improved IT capacity. The staff capacity of LSB and SMAs would be strengthened through training and technical assistance to vitalize the needs of quality statistics in their respective ministries. Statistical working groups would be important to elicit data requirements and to improve confidence to share and use the available data. Duplication of responsibilities among agencies would be removed. Compilation and analysis processes and workflows would be strengthened. LSB would be able to coordinate with SMAs more effectively and efficiently to compile data, especially administrative data, and disseminate statistical products and services to these agencies.
11. The above‐mentioned cause‐effect links underlying the theory of changes for the project are illustrated in figure 1.
Project Development Objectives (PDOs)
12. The PDO was to improve the capacity of the Recipient’s national statistical system to produce and disseminate reliable and timely macroeconomic and poverty statistics in accordance with international standards and in responses to user needs.
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Figure 1. Theory of Changes
Long‐term results
Inputs (Activities) Outputs PDO/Outcomes
1. National SNA manual and methodology developed. 2. Re‐benchmarking of the National Accounts to 2012. 3. National account development strategy and
methodology was developed and implemented. 4. Generic methods and tools for economic surveys
were developed and used. 5. Supply and Use Table 6. Surveys on International Investment Position and
International Trade in Services were completed. 7. Guidelines and measures to have data quality
assurance for surveys and administrative data were developed and used.
8. Training on National Accounts, economic survey method, and data quality assurance was delivered.
9. Macroeconomic framework and modeling capacity was built and used by the GOL.
1. Institutional capacity plan was developed and implemented.
2. Human resources strategy and implementation plan were developed and implemented.
3. Coordination of the National Statistical System was strengthened.
4. Training on management and coordination was completed.
Component C. Improving Data Access and Sharing: 1. Development and implementation of a
macroeconomic and poverty data dissemination strategy for the LSB and SMAs.
2. Development of an ICT Plan. 3. Strengthening ICT infrastructure and
capacity of the LSB and SMAs. 4. Upgrading the LSB Web Portal for
improved data dissemination
Component A. Strengthening Macroeconomic and Poverty Data Development and Management: 1. Improvement of National Accounts (by
expenditure) and other macroeconomic statistics.
2. Household survey and poverty‐ and gender ‐related analysis and dissemination.
3. Strengthening macroeconomic research and modeling capacity for the GOL.
4. Adaptation of international standards and methodologies in data collection, compilation, and validation and improvement of questionnaires and sampling frames.
Component B. Improving Policies and Strengthening Implementation Capacity: 1. Strengthening the capacity of the LSB and
SMAs’ Statistical Units to implement Component A.
2. Enforcing policy and regulations on statistics and eliminating duplication of responsibilities between the LSB and SMAs –reinforcing LSB’s role as a lead coordinating institution.
1. Data dissemination strategy and implementation plan were developed and implemented.
2. Metadata development strategy. 3. ICT Plan for the National Statistical System. 4. ICT System established for the LSB. 5. Statistical datasets partially migrated to the new
server and LSB Web Portal. 6. Manuals on contents and publication design and
maintenance. 7. Training on dissemination, metadata, and ICT.
Intermediate Outcome
1. Macroeconomic statistics are produced in line with internationally accepted standards.
2. Social and demographic statistics (particularly household and poverty data including sex‐disaggregated data) are produced in line with internationally accepted standards.
3. Internationally accepted standards, classifications, and methodologies in macroeconomic and poverty related data collection, compilation, and validation are in place.
(Sub‐PDO 2) … disseminate reliable and timely macroeconomic and poverty statistics in response to user needs: 3. Improved user satisfaction with macroeconomic and poverty statistical products and services of the National Statistical System.
1. Sustained capacity to measure the progress of and monitor results of NSEDP
2. Sustained monitoring and measurement of economic growth
3. Sustained focus
and estimation of poverty reduction
4. Interagency coordination mechanism (rules and regulations) between the LSB and other agencies (SMAs) on macroeconomic and poverty statistics are in place and operational.
5. Human resource management strategy is in place and the LSB and MDA SMAs staff trained and maintained their skills
6. Data user‐producer dialog established and functional
7. Dissemination strategy is developed and implemented
8. IT plan for LSB and SMAs is developed and implemented
9. LSB web portal improved with increased number of data available
10. IT staff trained and retained their skills.
(Sub‐PDO 1) … produce reliable and timely macroeconomic and poverty statistics in accordance with international standards: 1. A comprehensive macroeconomic framework is developed and used within the GOL for policy making and planning process
2. Improved macroeconomic and poverty‐related statistical capacity score and disaggregated by: a. Methodology b. Source data c. Periodicity and timelines (average): Survey data Admin data
PDO: To improve the capacity of the Recipient’s national statistical system to …
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Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators
13. Key outcome indicators for the project were the following:
(a) User satisfaction with macroeconomic and poverty statistical products and services of the national statistical system (disaggregated by LSB and SMAs) improved.
(b) Macroeconomic and poverty related statistical capacity score improved and disaggregated by methodology, source data, and periodicity and timeliness.
(c) A comprehensive macroeconomic framework is developed and used within the GOL for policy making and planning process.
Components
Component A. Strengthening Macroeconomic and Poverty Data Development and Management
14. This component was to improve production and dissemination of reliable and timely macroeconomic and poverty statistics. Lao PDR was already compliant with SNA 1993 during project appraisal but wanted to implement SNA 2008 in national account statistics and include the use of the expenditure approach. Lao PDR was also committed to strengthening macroeconomic research and modelling capacity in key Government agencies. It would help enhance survey methodologies by optimizing questionnaire design and sampling frame, to ensure that surveys would be in line with international standards. This component intended to finance technical assistance, training, and workshops for (a) improvement of the national accounts by expenditure and other key macroeconomic statistics; (b) improvement of analysis and dissemination of LECS for poverty‐ and gender‐related analysis; (c) strengthening macroeconomic research and modeling capacity; and (d) adapting internationally accepted standards and methodologies, including questionnaire designs and sampling frames in data collection, compilation, and validation by the LSB and statistical units in the SMAs.
Component B. Improving Policies and Strengthening Implementation Capacity
15. This component was meant to enhance the institutional capacity for the LSB and statistical units in SMAs. It aimed to remove duplicate responsibilities between agencies. The national statistical system in Lao PDR was highly decentralized and not very well integrated by having several levels and agencies producing and disseminating duplicate statistics as well as conducting surveys. The component was to complement the GOL’s decision, by following the approval of the Law on Statistics in June 2010, to rationalize the LSB as the lead agency in production, management, coordination, and dissemination of national statistics in Lao PDR. To that end, the project intended to finance technical assistances, training, and workshops on (a) capacity building for the LSB and statistical units in SMAs and (b) review and formulation of policy and regulations on statistics aiming at eliminating duplicate responsibilities between the LSB and statistical units in SMAs.
Component C. Improving Data Access and Sharing
16. This component was to support data sharing and access to information strategy and increase efficiency of data collection and processing through the establishment of cost‐effective ICT infrastructure and equipment. While the LSB already had a series of datasets, for example LECS 1–3 and economic censuses that were at a disaggregate level, these data were not shared adequately and efficiently, often constrained by a lack of a clear data sharing and access to information policy framework. The GOL was committed to enhance the access to data
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by stakeholders in policy making, planning, and monitoring of development programs by increasing the efficiency and effectiveness in data collection, data processing, analysis, and timely dissemination. The project intended to provide support for (a) development of a dissemination strategy, (b) development of an ICT plan, (c) procurement of new ICT infrastructure for the LSB and statistical units in some SMAs, and (d) technical assistance to upgrade the LSB web portal for improved data dissemination.
B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION (IF APPLICABLE)
Revised PDOs and Outcome Targets
17. There were no changes to the PDOs or to the outcome targets. The closing date of the project was extended from June 30, 2017, to February 28, 2018, to complete some delayed outputs, especially the implementation of Component C, which was caused by a significant delay in the LSB’s headquarters building construction.
Revised PDO Indicators
18. Not applicable.
Revised Components
19. Not applicable.
Other Changes
20. Not applicable.
Rationale for Changes and Their Implication on the Original Theory of Change
21. Not applicable.
II. OUTCOME
A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs
Assessment of Relevance of PDOs and Rating
22. The PDO was well‐aligned to the policy priorities of Lao PDR, as expressed in the SDNSS 2011–2020. The latter aimed to achieve a “comprehensive, timely, transparent, and reliable supply of good quality socioeconomic and environment statistics in meeting with an increasing demand of the Government and other statistics users. It also aimed to support M&E and formulation of Lao PDR’s socioeconomic development programs, Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015, and its graduation from Least Developed Country status by 2020.” The SDNSS was guided by the Seventh NSEDP 2011–2015 that focused on poverty reduction through a combination of broad‐based economic growth and specific policy interventions. An improved statistical system would help support monitoring and evaluation of development targets and results. The project focused on an improvement of institutional and staff capacity enabling the national statistical system to produce as well as disseminate reliable and timely macroeconomic and poverty statistics. The availability of macroeconomic and poverty statistics would
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also allow Government researchers and academia to conduct more relevant researches to inform decision making and planning of a wide variety of social and economic development programs.
23. The PDO remained highly relevant at the Implementation Completion and Results Report (ICR) stage. The PDO continues to be highly relevant and aligned with the current Eighth NSEDP (2016–2020) aiming to reduce the poverty incidence rate from 23.2 percent in 2012 to 10 percent in 2020 and to maintain an average annual growth rate at 7–7.5 percent. The reliable and timely measurement of these targets and other targets is necessary to have reliable and timely statistics by the national statistical system. Furthermore, the World Bank Group’s Country Partnership Framework1 (CPF) for Lao PDR identified the continued relevance of supporting the national statistical system to ensure that reliable and timely data are available to assess the country’s economic performance and to formulate relevant development programs and instruments in support of Lao PDR’s social and economic development.
Rating of Relevance of PDO: High
24. The PDO clearly targeted specific constraints of Lao PDR’s national statistical system to produce and disseminate reliable and timely statistics. These constraints were identified, analyzed, and consulted extensively by the LSB and statistical units in SMAs in the SDNSS. Lao PDR did not have a proper macroeconomic framework that was developed and used within the GOL. The macroeconomic and poverty statistics were unreliable and were unavailable on time. Credible measurement and estimates of economic performance or poverty reduction require strong statistical evidence and data support. The focus of the PDO on production and dissemination of reliable and timely macroeconomic and poverty statistics already stressed the high importance of trying to satisfy the huge needs and increasing demand of statistics users. These two sets of statistics are highly relevant to measure and monitor the NSEDP targets and indicators at the annual performance, at midterm review, and at final evaluation of the plan. They are also highly relevant for formulation of the new follow‐on future NSEDPs.
B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY)
25. The efficacy assessment decomposes the PDO into two outcome objectives. They are to (a) produce reliable and timely macroeconomic and poverty statistics in accordance with international standards; and (b) disseminate macroeconomic and poverty statistics in response to user needs. The decomposition is in line with the appraised PDO of the Project Appraisal Document and the grant agreement of the project. The PDO reads “to improve the capacity of the Recipient’s national statistical system to produce and disseminate reliable and timely macroeconomic and poverty statistics in accordance with international standards and in responses to user needs.” As the theory of change in figure 1 shows, these amplified parts of the PDO were intermediate outcomes and activity outputs supported by the project. Key achievements of the PDO indicators were presented in Table 1.
1 Report no. 110813.
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Table 1. Summary of Indicators and Achievements
Indicators Unit of Measure
Baseline Value
End Target Value
End Actual Value
Achievement (%)
PDO level Macroeconomic and poverty related statistical capacity score2 improved and disaggregated by
Number 61.00 75.00 65.00 87.8
a. Methodology Number 50.00 65.00 50.00 78.1
b. Source data Number 50.00 65.00 60.00 93.8
c. Periodicity and timeliness Number 74.00 85.00 93.00 110.7
A comprehensive macroeconomic framework is developed and used within the GOL for policy making and planning process
Text
None is available
The framework is produced and used by the GOL
The framework is produced and used by the GOL
100.0
User satisfaction3 with macroeconomic and poverty statistical products and services of the national statistical system (disaggregated by LSB and SMAs) improved.
Percent 33.00 52.80 34.00 65.64
Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective/Outcome
26. The sub‐objectives of the project were to (a) produce reliable and timely macroeconomic and poverty statistics in accordance with international standards and (b) disseminate macroeconomic and poverty statistics in response to user needs. The achievements of each sub‐objective were assessed as explained in the following paragraphs.
Objective 1: Produce reliable and timely macroeconomic and poverty statistics in accordance with international standards
27. The project has achieved many of the expected outcomes in producing macroeconomic and poverty statistics. The achievements of this sub‐objective at both outputs and intermediate outcomes are significant. A remarkable result was a significant improvement in the dimension of periodicity and timeliness of statistics. The
2 Statistical capacity score is, also known as the Statistical Capacity Index (SCI), constructed by the World Bank in partnership with other international organizations including the IMF, United Nations (UN), the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), and World Health Organization (WHO). The statistical score is measured in a scale from 1 to 100 points. A higher point refers to a better capacity of the national statistical system. The latest available SCI for Laos which is used for this ICR was a bit outdated (based on data from 2016 WDI/WEO) and it did not capture recent achievements made by the GOL with support from the project about rebase of GDP and CPI, BOP and poverty update. By incorporating these changes, the score would certainly be higher. 3 User satisfaction is measured in percentage constructed from the user satisfaction survey. A higher percentage refers to higher satisfaction of users. Two surveys were conducted. The first survey was completed in 2015 to establish the baseline of the indicator and the second survey was completed in 2018 to provide the actual end‐result.
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main outputs of the project include (a) Lao PDR’s national accounts manual, (b) supply and use tables (SUT); (c) rebase of gross domestic products (GDP) to 2012, (d) investment position survey, (e) new consumer price index (CPI) basket to improve price statistics, (f) poverty analysis and report based on LECS 5, (g) national accounts development strategy, (h) LSB’s human resource strategy, and (i) capacity building for sectoral statistics agencies. Key macroeconomic and poverty statistics as well as population census data were produced and disseminated much faster than before and with better quality and standards.
28. Lao PDR’s national accounts manual. To enable the LSB to transition from SNA 1993 to SNA 2008, a supplementary customized manual of national accounts for Lao PDR was approved in May 2017. In line with SNA 2008 by the United Nations, the manual provides procedures and guidelines for data sources and compilation methods to be used to estimate GDP at the national level. The manual is in line with good practices for a small economy in adopting SNA 2008. The manual focuses mainly on the SUT and estimation processes of GDP at the national level, not suitable at the provincial level. Broadly, the supplementary national account manual is only partially in line with the full SNA 2008 manual iii. A complete transition toward a more robust use of SNA 2008 would require further upgrades of both institutional and staff capacity in LSB and improvement of data sources. Currently, Lao PDR does not use the SNA 2008 methodology completely.
29. Supply and Use Tables (SUT). An update and expansionary data compilation was supported by the project to finalize the construction of the 2012 SUTiv in support of the GDP rebase to 2012. Key datasets assembled include (a) a series of annual household surveys (AHSs) and the 2015 Enterprise Survey (Establishments Survey); (b) data on agriculture and informal businesses assembled from the LECS 2012–2013; and, (c) the 2012 Economic Census. The constructionv of the 2012 SUT was completed in March 2017. Most componentsvi of the SUT framework were compiled and completed except for Part C ‘Make or Supply Matrix’ because of lack of information from producers in Lao PDR to compile the intermediate consumption matrix. Part E on ‘Further Details of gross value added (GVA)’ was also not complete because information for disaggregate income details was not available. To mitigate the shortfall of Part C, the LSB used estimated coefficients4 from a neighboring country as a starting point. The total by products for Part C were compared to the initial estimates of Part B on ‘Balance of supply and demand or commodity flows accounts’ to produce an approximate balance through some adjustments by using the approach of adjustment and updating of the technical coefficients, known as the RASvii method.
30. GDP rebase to 2012. Based on the SUT completed in March 2017, the Lao PDR’s GDP by production approach was estimated and rebased to 2012. The 2012 SUT framework generated new estimates of GDP at current prices in 2012 at LAK 81.6 trillion, 8 percent higher than the GDP of the same year previously estimated at LAK 75.3 trillion by the 2002 SUT framework. The GVA of some economic activities was much higher than the previous estimates in the 2002 SUT framework. Based on the 2012 GDP rebase, GDP estimates from 2002 to 2011 were also re‐estimated and aligned. New estimates of GDP from 2012 to 2016 were extrapolated. The next rebase year was expected to be 2017 and a new 2017 SUT framework was to be compiled in 2019/2020. The LSB would need to improve the quality and coverage of data sources, better methodology, and institutional and staff capacity to implement the task that would be very demanding in time, budget, and expertise.
31. International investment position (IIP) surveys. Two IIP surveys were conducted by the Bank of Lao PDR (BOL) to collect investment data to adjust and improve the compilation of the BOP statistics and establish the IIP and external statistics for Lao PDR. These statistics were critical for the estimation of GDP and GNI and to align Lao
4 The coefficients from Thailand were used to combine and apply to Lao PDR’s estimates of intermediate demand by product at the 3‐digit level of the Lao Classification of Products by Activity (LCPA).
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PDR’s BOP statistics to comply with international standards. The first IIP survey was conducted in 2016 (with support from the project) to collect investment position data for 2014 and 2015. It was a joint effort between the BOL, LSB, and the Ministry of Industry and Commerce (MOIC). The second survey to collect investment position data for 2016 and 2017 was directly financed by the BOL and was completed in June 2018. The two surveys would provide a series of adequate years of the investment position data that could help the BOL improve parts of IIP and external debts in the BOP statistics. The IIP surveyviii was for the first time to provide total FDI estimates in Lao PDR. In the 2016 survey for 2014 and 2015 data, the total FDI (excluding the banking sector) estimate was US$5.3 billion, about 36 percent higher than the total FDI in 2014. The second survey was conducted during the first semester of 2018 and its result is being finalized.
32. New CPI baskets were used to improve price statistics. With the project’s support, Lao PDR had compiled a monthly CPI with a new CPI basket and a new base year of 2015 (December 2015 = 100), started in July 2016. Two major changes were made in the CPI estimation. They were (a) expanding items in the basket from 245 to 485 items and (b) including all 18 provinces instead of 12 previously. The weights were also updated based on the Lao Social Indicator Survey in 2012.
33. Poverty analysis and report based on LECS 5. Lao PDR’s poverty analysis and report based on LECS 5 was completed and published on time in October 2015. The poverty analysis was robust because of higher quality of poverty data from the recent LECS 5 in 2012–2013 and detailed analysis of transition of poverty reduction by having the proper panel from the LECS 3–5 surveys. A 2015 census‐based poverty incidence mapping was jointly conducted and completed between the LSB and the World Bank in June 2016. The questionnaire for LECS 6 was improved with the project’s support to rationalize key principles in designing new questionnaires to enable data of the upcoming LECSs 6 and 7 to meet data requirements of national accounts and poverty analysis. The AHSs 5 were already conducted to fill data gaps, but there were some inconsistencies in methodologies between AHSs and LECS. The new questionnaire of AHS was also improved to align with the LECS 6 questionnaires to reduce the difference. The sample size of the 2014 AHS was smaller than 2,700 households. The suggested size should be increased to about 50 percent of the LECS 6. The LSB started to conduct the LECS 6 in June 2018.
34. National accounts development strategy was developed in June 2017. For building capacity of the LSB and statistical units in line ministries, the national accounts development strategy and methodology was developed to outline the priority areas that need improvement and need to comply with the SNA 2008 methodology. Following the use of the 2012 SUT framework and the GDP rebase to 2012, key priorities were to improve the quality and standard of statistical data, increase the frequency of GDP estimates on a quarterly basis, and improve methodology to exploit key datasets. Some error detection methodologies were developed to identify and correct mistakes to obtain high‐quality national accounts. The Excel template used for compiling the 2012 SUT needed to be adapted to compile new data sources for the next GDP rebase to 2017. At the end of the project, the implementation of the strategy was just at the beginning and has not yet yielded any significant changes.
35. LSB human resource strategy and Institutional Capacity Plan 2016–2020. In July 2016, a human resource strategy was developed in preparation of the LSB staff to respond to the changing environment and to support statistics production and dissemination. The human resource strategy outlined a clear set of the LSB’s vision, mission, and strategic priorities, where its (a) vision was to enable organizational change that delivers greater staff performance and business effectiveness; (b) mission was to organize Lao PDR’s statistics to make them more globally accessible and provide Lao people with easy access to global information; and (c) strategic priorities were
5 The AHS was conducted in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2011, and 2014 by the LSB. The AHS is a shortened version of the LECS.
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to have clear workforce planning, motivate great staff, and provide excellent processes. At the end of the project, the LSB has only implemented some of the priorities.
36. The Institutional Capacity Plan 2016‐2025 (ICP) is a short and direct document, highlighting the areas that needed to change, including a schedule of survey activities, and containing a matrix illustrating strategic pillars, outcomes, objectives and activities. It provides the basis for LSB’s efforts to build capacity but also a template for future resource mobilization. The four pillars of the ICP, which are cross‐referenced to SDNSS 2016‐2025, are: (i) developing the LSB leadership role in the coordination of the National Statistical System; (ii) strengthening organizational development; (iii) modernizing the statistical infrastructure; (iv) improving the service to users.
37. Capacity building for sectoral statistics agencies. Several key sectoral statistics agencies were supported by the project to improve their statistical capacity and communication for providing economic data from administrative sources. Key support included methodology skills training and revision of the sectoral statistics manuals, templates, and procedures. The beneficiary agencies included the MOIC’s Statistics Center, the Statistics Office of the Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM), BOL’s BOP Office, Tax Department of the Ministry of Finance (MOF), the Faculty of Economics and Management of the National University of Laos (NOUL), and the National Institute of Economic Research (NIER).
38. A comprehensive macroeconomic framework is developed and used. The project successfully achieved targets in this indicator. A comprehensive macroeconomic framework and modelling was fully established in 2016 and was built on the earlier framework that had been already used by NIER since 2011. Such a framework was delivered because of a strong macroeconomic monitoring and forecasting team (MMFTix), which was established with the project’s support to compile the macroeconomic framework and modelling. Several rounds of workshops, trainings, and consultations were organized for the MMFT. Since 2016, the MMFT, led by NIER, has been able to make projections of key macroeconomic indicators until 2020. NIER’s annual economic review reports were issued in the first quarter of each calendar year. The latest report was issued in March 2018.6 However, preparation of quarterly macroeconomic updates had significant challenges because of limited high frequency data and insufficient budget for conducting small quarterly surveys as needed.
Objective 2: Disseminate macroeconomic and poverty statistics in response to user needs
39. The project partially achieved the expected outcome in disseminating macroeconomic and poverty statistics in response to user needs. The targets in the PDO indicator were only partially achieved because of the lag in translating outputs and intermediate results into outcomes and impact by the time when the end‐project user survey was conducted (June 2017). Despite significant improvements in production and dissemination of macro and poverty statistics through hard paper publication, online data access and sharing have not been improved as expected because data interface platforms and consolidated website for data sharing were not completed due to significant delays in operational and technical changes. First, there was a long delay in the Government‐financed construction of the LSB office building that would house the ICT infrastructure. The construction of the LSB office building started late and the contractors were slow in conducting the civil works. The LSB office building was only completed in the fourth quarter of 2017. Second, there was some challenges in migration of various Microsoft Access datasets that were managed on various personal computers and were often shifted from the server to local personal computers and vice versa to the new data warehouse platform and to be uploaded into the web portal, supported by the project. The LSB staff still lack the skills to use the relational
6 Report of Lao PDR’s macroeconomic review for 2017 and its trend in 2018.
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database management system (for example, Structured Query Language [SQL] server and MySQL) from data acquisition to data dissemination. The LSB did not have a data warehouse platform before the project.
40. Despite limited improvements in online data access and sharing, it is essential to recognize the important outputs supported by the project. The achievements of the expected outputs at the end of the project could be a stepping stone for the LSB to enhance future dissemination of national statistics. Main contributions to an improved policy framework on data sharing and access to information and an improved ICT environment in facilitating data access in the following paragraphs.
41. LSB ICT plan 2016–2020. The ICT plan outlined detailed guidelines for the use of ICT to support the modernization of statistical processes to ensure alignment with international standards and supports the development of an ICT platform and the strengthening of the ICT human resource capacity. The ICT plan was prepared with the project’s support and was approved in April 2016. The implementation of the ICT plan has started, including the key information technology (IT) infrastructure and capacity‐building support financed by the project. The multiyear ICT plan was initially implemented by the LSB between 2016 and 2017. More outputs under the ICT plan still need to be delivered during the remaining period of the plan. Currently, it is unclear whether the LSB will be able to secure funding from the Government’s budget allocation to implement the plan.
42. Metadata development strategy and maintenance manual. In July 2016, a metadata development strategy was developed, with the project’s support, to provide the LSB some concrete steps to develop and implement a statistical metadata system (SMS) that would be in line with international standards. The SMS was to improve the efficiency of data and metadata preparation, storage, access, management, and dissemination for statistical products produced across the GOL. In line with the metadata development strategy, a metadata development and maintenance manual was also prepared. The manual helped guide the LSB to define key components of a metadata management systemx. With the project’s support, an SMS was established in the new data warehouse platform in the LSB and a metadata unit was assigned to lead this important priority, but it faced several constraints to maintain and further develop it. Major constraints include limited ICT and database development skills in the LSB. There are only two database developers who have the basic skills and they would require significant training and skills upgrade to deliver an efficient metadata management system.
43. A strategy to upgrade the microdata management system. With the project’s support, a strategy to upgrade the microdata management system was prepared and approved in December 2015. The strategy focused on implementable technical and organizational changes as well as complex technical approaches, including data integration and data warehousing. The strategy included (a) establishing a centralized storage and a centralized control of microdata; (b) having a distributed access to microdata; (c) establishing a structured working procedures; and (d) strengthening staff to be adequately competent in the following roles: system architect, system administrator, ICT security, database administrator, database designer, Access, SQL, or Visual Studio developers, and statistical software professionals (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS), Stata, and Census and Survey Processing System (CSPro)) to ensure connectivity between statistical software and rational database.
44. Data dissemination strategy. In March 2017, a data dissemination strategy was prepared and approved by the LSB. The strategy attempted to set priorities for the LSB to adopt international good practices in improving (a) the limited accessibility of statistics and metadata, (b) weak impartiality and objectivity; (c) the poor relevance of statistics, (d) less timeliness and periodicity of statistics; and (d) weak confidentiality practices. The strategy is comprehensive to transform the LSB’s dissemination approach. The strategy defined clear dissemination principles on equal access, impartiality and transparency, online dissemination database, and bilingual publication on a
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centralized web portal. However, the strategy has not yet been implemented to fully realize all these important priorities. At the time of project closing, the LSB has not been able to centralize and upgrade the existing web portals. It could not make any significant organizational and technical changes to adopt a new approach to dissemination by launching the centralized web portal that was supported by the project. Significant efforts would be needed in the coming year to achieve the target set in the strategy.
Justification of Overall Efficacy Rating
Rating: Substantial
45. The overall efficacy rating is Substantial. The project has achieved most of its outputs and significant parts of its two sub‐objectives. At the end of the project, the production of macroeconomic and poverty statistics has been improved with the LSB’s ability to have GDP estimates for the actual economic growth and projection for the next statistical year. Data collection from surveys sources has also been improved with enhanced survey questionnaires and methodologies and use of digital survey technology (tablets) through the project’s support. Likewise, data collection from administrative sources has also been gradually efficient because of clearer coordination and communication roles between the LSB and sectoral statistics agencies as well as improved manuals and templates. The project contributed to a stronger foundation for future improvements. The project was behind expectation in producing a GDP by expenditure approach due to low quality and timeliness of some sectoral data. It was also behind expectation in dissemination of statistics due to limited operational and technical changes. The project‐supported LSB web portal has not yet been launched and upgraded to centralize all datasets and statistics including macroeconomic and poverty data to allow greater access and improved outreach. Currently, the LSB still maintains three different domains for data dissemination supported by different donors (Lao Info, Lao Decide Info, and Lao PDR National Data Archive (LNADA)) and LSB is in the process of consolidating and streamlining these websites to increase efficiency and improve online data dissemination.
C. EFFICIENCY
Assessment of Efficiency and Rating
Rating: Substantial
46. The project had some broad economic benefits and welfare gains through improvement in administrative efficiency. An economic analysis was performed at the ICR stage. The broad economic benefits are derived from existence of improved quality and timely information and inputs for evidence‐based policy making for the GOL and other users, and monitoring of overall economic performance and emerging risks, measurement of results of GOL development programs and improvement in budget allocation. Despite the delays in implementation particularly in the third component, which showed partial achievement of results on data dissemination, the project generated important cost savings and welfare gains. The economic and welfare analysis focused in three ways: (a) timely production of macroeconomic and poverty statistics would increase cost saving for the LSB and reduce waiting times for statistical users; (b) quality production of macroeconomic and poverty statistics would minimize efforts of users to further verify and gather more evidence; and (c) effective dissemination of statistics would increase data sharing and reduce the time that users take to access statistics (metadata, administrative data, macrodata, and survey data). Because this project was not to generate any additional revenue for the LSB or the economy cost‐saving and value of time saved for the LSB and the economy are key benefits gained through the project’s support. With some caution, these benefits are interpreted only in the context of availability of and access to statistics. The analysis period is from 2013 to 2021, covering the project
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life and beyond with the assumption that some of the benefits require time to be gained as several strategies and plans are being implemented. The discount rate was maintained at 5 percent. The expected economic benefits were estimated based on the assumptions shown in table 1 in Annex 4. Efficiency Analysis.
47. Based on the assumptions, the project’s key benefits at the ICR stage included some cost savings and marginal welfare gains. This project was not to generate any revenue flows for the LSB. The internal rate of return (IRR) was estimated at 6 percent and the net present value (NPV) was estimated at US$6,149,508. First, the project investments contributed to more timely production of statistics, especially macroeconomic and poverty statistics that could save some administrative costs for the LSB in comparison with the baseline costs which the LSB would have without the project. The incremental cost saving was estimated at US$214,478 or 7 percent of the LSB’s total administrative costs. Likewise, the incremental value of time saved for the LSB was also estimated at US$526,863. The value of time saved was translated to infer an incremental saving for the economy that was also estimated at US$8,579,499 or about 0.01 percent of GDP.
Table 2. Estimated Economic Benefits
Description At Appraisal
At ICR
Estimated savings Incremental administrative cost savings for the LSB (2013–2021) — US$214,478
Incremental saving for the value of time saved to the LSB (2013–2021) — US$526,863
Incremental savings for the value of time saved to the economy (2013–2021) — US$8,579,499
IRR and NPV estimation IRR — 6 %
NPV — US$6,149,508
D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING
Rating: Moderately Satisfactory
48. The project achieved major parts of its objectives. All objectives of the LAOSTAT were highly relevant, as they were aligned to the government policy and Bank strategy of enhancing the national statistical system in support of Lao PDR’s social and economic development. Efficacy and efficiency were rated substantial. With the project, production of macroeconomic and poverty statistics has been improved in line with international standards. Macroeconomic and poverty statistics are released faster than before and on time. Access to raw survey data is still slow and remain challenging. Although the overall statistical score for Lao PDR has slightly improved from 61 to 68 in a scale from 1 to 100 points, it still falls short of the end target of 75 points7. Noticeable improvements were made in the dimension of periodicity and timeliness of statistics by 6.67 points from 86.67 in 2011 to 93.33 in 2017. The actual end score of statistical methodologies has not changed from its baseline at 50 points. The score of statistical source data or data collection and compilation at the end of the project was at 60 points, 10 points higher than the baseline but it was still behind the end target of 65 points. Limited improvements
7 The latest available SCI score is a bit outdated (based on data from 2016 WDI/WEO) and make it difficult to establish a complete picture and have a full assessment of this PDO indicator at ICR stage. The new update is expected to be available by end‐2018 and it will likely incorporate recent improvements made by the GOL (with support from the project), especially on GDP and CPI rebase, BOP and poverty update. New score in the next update would surely be improved.
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in the scores reflect some delays in translating project outputs into results by Lao PDR during the project implementation. In addition, some improvements such as GDP rebase to 2012 were timely reflected in the updating of the score.
E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY)
Gender
49. The project co‐financed LECS 5 survey and Population and Housing Census 2015, which produced gender disaggregated statistics on poverty, employment, education, health and intra‐household time use. These statistics were further disaggregated at the province level, improving the understanding of gender gaps spatially too.
Institutional Strengthening
50. The project provided significant support on institutional strengthening for LSB and several related ministries and agencies through: (i) a series of leadership, management and technical training for senior and young statistical officials (about 100 training workshops and knowledge exchange visits were organized with support from the project and nearly 1700 people were trained); (ii) development of a long term institutional capacity plan and human resource strategy for LSB; (iii) and modernization of ICT infrastructure for LSB and three pilot provinces.
Mobilizing Private Sector Financing
51. Not applicable.
Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity
52. The project provided support on poverty analysis for LECS5 and survey design for the next round of LECS surveys and some poverty related training for LSB to strengthen their capacity to produce good dataset including
with sex‐disaggregation for the LECS, population census, enterprise surveys and economic census to better monitor economic performance and poverty reduction targets.
Other Unintended Outcomes and Impacts
53. Not applicable.
III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME
A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION
54. The project preparation was informed by extensive diagnostics conducted by the GOL, the World Bank, and other development partners. The GOL’s needs assessment for the SDNSS and the final evaluation report of SIDA’s statistical capacity support to the LSB at the MPI were the key documents that were considered as inputs for the project design. Lao PDR had strong appetite for transitioning (a) from SNA 1993 to SNA 2008, (b) the national accounts base year from 2002 to 2012, and (c) from the Fifth Edition of Balance of Payment Manual (BPM5) to the Sixth Edition of BPM (BPM6). The GDP estimate was only performed by using the production approach, which was in line with SNA 1993. It wanted to adopt the expenditure approach and produce quarterly GDP, but it was not
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possible at that time because of poor quality and lack of source data. The project design was based on extensive consultations with the LSB, SMAs, academia, and development partners in Lao PDR. The preparation of the project also benefited greatly from some interventions of the World Bank Group through the Lao statistics capacity technical assistance (STATCAP), studies and policy notes of the development partners, including the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and SIDA.
B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION
55. The project experienced a classical U shape curve with a swift startup of implementation but later faced some significant constraints in procurement before more tangible processes were made at the end of the project. At the launch of the project, the LSB demonstrated strong ownership in implementing the project in preparing work plans and initiating procurement of goods and consultants for project implementation. However, there were some challenges in selecting a qualified procurement specialist at the first two years of the project. There was a limited pool of qualified procurement consultants in the local market. The project, therefore, faced some significant delays in having a technical assistance expert team to provide comprehensive consulting services to the LAOSTAT on technical assessments and development of manuals and key operational strategies. The technical assistance expert team was only on board during the midterm of the project. Most technical outputs and ICT‐related outputs were delivered quite close to the end of the project, especially Component C on ICT infrastructure. Due to such delays, LSB had only limited time to fully translate delivered outputs into actions and results.
56. LSB had a weak absorptive capacity to fully apply advanced statistical methodologies and international standards in statistical production. Most of the junior staff had a limited statistical background and qualifications. The already delayed implementation of ICT also faced further slowdown with a significant delay in the LSB’s new headquarters building construction in Vientiane. The new headquarters building was not financed by the project, but through the Government’s state budget, and was completed in the third quarter of 2017. The major ICT‐related activities (network cabling and system installation, development of data center, installation of electricity generators, and so on) were started in July 2017 and were only completed by the end of February 2018.
IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME
A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E)
M&E Design
57. The M&E design was relevant at the time of project preparation when the availability of information and data was limited. Two of the three PDO indicators were considered measurable and attributable to measure improvements in the capacity of the Lao PDR’s national statistical system as whole but partially at specific project levels and at ICR stage as it would take some time to see impacts after project completion. The first indicator was to rely on two satisfaction surveys of statistical users in Lao PDR by the project. At design, there was no survey being conducted to establish the baseline. The first satisfaction survey of statistical users was conducted in 2014.
58. The second PDO indicator was highly relevant for cross country comparisons because it measured scores of national statistical capacities in three dimensions: statistical methodology, source data, and periodicity and timeliness. This indicator is an internationally recognized indicator that is jointly constructed by the World Bank, IMF, UN, UNESCO, and WHO, but this indicator source was not updated on a regular basis to reflect the progress made in the field.
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59. The third PDO indicator was important to measure the development and use of a macroeconomic framework by the Government. However, it was quite broad, and the means of verification appear quite limited with just a descriptive narration that could not capture tangible results and its quality. Nearly all intermediate outcome indicators were descriptive, but not quantitative. Likewise, the means of verification for these indicators were also descriptive and were not in any references of an independent assessment of the targets. Such weakness in the indicators left some quality gaps that the project should focus on to track the quality of progress and achievement in the intermediate and PDO results.
M&E Implementation
60. The M&E implementation was relatively adequate at least for those indicators that relied on administrative and project data sources. These included the third PDO indicator and almost all intermediate outcome indicators. However, it was challenging for the LSB to keep track and obtain information or evidence to track the progress and achievement of targets for PDO indicators 1 and 2.
61. For PDO indicator 1, the LSB was able to conduct two satisfaction surveys during the project life of four years, but it also faced some delays in completing them on time. The baseline for this indicator was populated quite late after the project started. The baseline was only established with the first satisfaction survey that was conducted only in 2014 and completed in 2015. As consequence, the second satisfaction survey was subsequently conducted in 2017, but it was completed in early 2018 to track achievements of the targets in this indicator. By January 2018, the project had only one month toward the end date of the project. As such, the result of the survey was not incorporated in the project M&E framework. The last Implementation Status and Results Report (ISR) was submitted in December 2017 and was approved in January 2018.
62. Likewise, the project also faced some delays in updating the second PDO indicator because of time lags for international organizations to reflect some of the improvements in Lao PDR’s statistical capacity score. There were some gaps between reporting of in‐country improvements to the relevant partners that perform the update of the statistical capacity score. The process of updating the SCIs has also been complex and time‐consuming.
M&E Utilization
63. The PDO indicators were useful not only to measure the achievements of the project targets, but LSB also used it to keep track of the overall capacity of the national statistical system. Most notably, the second PDO indicator was an indicator that the LSB could keep track of its performance in the future because it relies on an open source that does not require much of an effort by the LSB to obtain the data and undertake verification for the source. In addition, this indicator measures three main dimensions: methodology, source data, and periodicity and timeliness. The LSB appeared to have more difficulty in using the first PDO indicator because it requires both financial and human resources to conduct the survey on a periodical basis. It was assessed that it would be challenging for the LSB to conduct any follow‐up satisfaction surveys without project support after the project closed because of limited capacity and lack of funding. A typical satisfaction survey would cost the LSB about US$50,000. The possibility that the LSB would be able to secure a sufficient budget to conduct such a survey in the future would be limited unless it could be financed by external sources.
Justification of Overall Rating of Quality of M&E
Rating: Modest
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64. The design of the PDO indicators was broadly of acceptable quality, but the targets were not realistic during project implementation. M&E implementation faced some shortcomings in obtaining realistic and relevant data and evidence to update targets in the project’s Results Framework. The overall statistical score was not reflected because of gaps in communication and time lags in the update of the score by international organizations. The second follow‐up satisfaction survey was conducted late and there was also a delay in completing the survey to provide the required data on time for updating targets in the indicator. Only the second PDO indicator on statistical capacity score would remain relevant and would have less financial burdens on the LSB to continue monitoring the overall capacity of the national statistical system. However, the LSB would still need to improve its reports and communications with international organizations to frequently update the score to reflect improvement of the overall capacity in the country.
B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE
65. The project’s fiduciary performance was Moderately Satisfactory. The key fiduciary issues were delays in project procurement and weak capacity in financial management in the LSB. The project experienced some significant delays in procurement operation and there were not many project activities implemented during the first and second year of the project. An experienced procurement officer was only on board in July 2014 to help the LSB to expedite the large procurement packages, including (a) technical assistance on capacity building for the LSB in which the technical assistance consultancy contract was signed in July 2015 and (b) an ICT package for supplying and installing ICT equipment, software, and related services, for which the procurement contract was signed in December 2016. With respect to financial management, the LSB also had limited experience in managing any large project of this size. It faced some difficulties to familiarize and follow the project financial management manual and procedures at the beginning of the project.
66. The environmental and social safeguards policies were not applied to this project as it was classified as ‘Category C’ during project appraisal. No safeguards issue was triggered during project implementation.
C. BANK PERFORMANCE
Quality at Entry
Rating: Satisfactory
67. The project’s theory of change was well articulated. The World Bank benefited significantly from the existing diagnostics of Lao PDR’s national statistical system, including the final evaluation report of SIDA’s support to build the LSB’s capacity, ADB’s technical assistance on SUT to improve macroeconomics statistics, and IMF’s existing assessment of statistical issues. During project preparation and appraisal, the World Bank conducted several missions and carried out some extensive consultations with stakeholders in the Government, academia, and development partners to validate the project design. It identified that strengthening the LSB’s overall capacity in methodology, source data, and periodicity and timeliness would contribute to organizational, operational, and technical changes in the LSB and SMAs to improve production and dissemination of economic and social statistics.
68. Project design was relevant by emphasizing on adopting international standards and methodology in statistical production in response to user needs. Because of the competing priorities in various statistics, the project approach and design were selectively focusing on improvement of LSB’s core capacity in production and dissemination of reliable and timely macroeconomic and poverty statistics. The project design was in line with the
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GOL’s priorities and action plan defined in the SDNSS (2011–2020) aiming at leveraging the LSB’s role as the leading agency in national statistics. It also aimed at upgrading its overall statistical capacity to produce and disseminate economic and social statistics in Lao PDR in accordance with international standards and in response to user needs.
Quality of Supervision
Rating: Moderately Satisfactory
69. Project implementation support by the World Bank was carried out through two main channels. First, the World Bank task team was based in Vientiane and this helped the LSB obtain immediate access to advice and technical backstopping for project implementation on a daily and weekly basis. Second, it benefited from formal implementation support missions. Despite there were only four main project implementation support missions in a five‐year project with formal Aide Mémoires submitted to MPI and LSB, the project was claimed to benefit from many specific missions and visits by individual experts and consultants of the World Bank. The latter appeared to provide specific and timely support to each implementing department within the LSB and in SMAs. The mission notes and key steps for actions to be taken were discussed and agreed with the client.
70. Despite some delays in project procurement, the project rebounded at the second half of the project by onboarding of the consulting team and a strong presence of a single Task Team Leader from the start to the end of the project. The project consultants had delivered all expected outputs to the LSB. The World Bank task team provided regular reviews of these outputs and provided timely comments to the LSB and the project consultants. The supervision task teams comprised members with an appropriate skill mix given the scope and status of the project. Site visits to monitor implementation progress and quality of works were carried out jointly with the client during each mission and visit. Fiduciary and safeguards monitoring, and guidance were sufficient, helpful, and timely with local presence. A total of eight ISRs were candidly prepared. Issues were reported on time to the World Bank management and they were communicated to LSB.
Justification of Overall Rating of Bank Performance
71. The overall rating of World Bank performance is Moderately Satisfactory, because of the moderate shortcomings in supervision.
D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME
72. There are some clear risks likely to affect the LSB’s ability to sustain the achieved outcomes and to translate some delayed outputs into future results that are critical for additional improvements of statistical production and dissemination. Looking forward, the LSB would depend on timeliness and quality of source data (administrative and surveyed sources) and qualified statisticians to apply international standards in its statistical methodologies in statistical production. Unless the existing gap of limited qualified statisticians is addressed seriously by LSB, workloads for the existing qualified statisticians would compromise its capability in production of statistics.
73. Dissemination of statistics through an ICT‐based data platform such as a web portal will require significant upgrade in LSB’s ICT capability to maintain and update it. While the operation and maintenance of the facilities was financed directly by the project, the risk that such facilities may not be used is high in the future, if adequate financial and human resources are not allocated to support the initiative. At the end of the project, a disaster recovery center has not been established to provide a back‐ up of the data platform. In addition, backup
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power provided (with two electrical generators) has not been fully connected to the entire building of IT equipment and some lighting and devices. This poses some risks of disruption and business discontinuity.
V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 74. A focused and simple project design, consistent with the client’s absorptive capacity, is key to producing results. Project design should sequence project activities to match the client’s absorptive capacity. During the appraisal, the detailed assessments of organizational and operational capacity was missing. The project design was to assume that a large package of international technical assistance (twining arrangement) would provide the required inputs and deliver outcomes on time. This arrangement has been useful for provide technical assistance needed during the implementation, however its procurement was very cumbersome with weak procurement capacity of the client. Because of the delays in procurement, several outputs were delivered late and the LSB had limited absorptive technical capacity to translate technical recommendations and action plans into results. Most deliverables were strategies, manuals, and action plans financed by the project. For instance, despite all outputs delivered for statistical dissemination, the LSB could not centralize and launch the supported web portal, a main public domain channel to disseminate statistics online.
75. While adopting international standards is quite straight forward for macroeconomic and poverty statistics, it was challenging for the LSB to collect source data with quality and timeliness from administrative sources. The project relied intensively on the LSB for upgrading its capacity in methodology and survey processes, but efforts by the project and the LSB were limited to improving quality and timeliness of source data from administrative sources. Source data from administrative sources in line ministries and sectors are still too aggregate, less well‐organized, and are not in time series. Future support should focus on making organizational and operational changes to have good quality administrative sources.
76. Selection of project indicators must be carefully assessed regarding data sources, frequency, and accessibility to ensure timely update of project targets. Using the World Bank’s SCIs to assess the national statistical system’s capacity was relevant to track improvement in key dimensions of statistical capacity and provide cross country comparisons. However, it would be helpful for specific statistical projects if the SCI could be customized to suit the need at project or program levels. In this project, the SCI is used as one of three key PDO result indicators but updating the indicator at ICR stage was challenging because the SCI was not updated frequently. The process of updating the SCIs has also been complex and time‐consuming.
77. Further support to the LSB is highly recommended. The LSB will still need to optimize the use of its ICT infrastructure, network system and data center, and web portal to further improve data dissemination and management and strengthen IT capacity. An operation team should be created to provide maintenance and upgrades of all ICT components. Specialized skills in data migration and system integration with other offices are highly required. Data dissemination will strongly require institutional commitments to activate, maintain, and update the web portal to enable easy access to data and sharing. In addition, future support to the implementation of key strategic Plans adopted by the GOL, such as the institutional capacity development plan, ICT and data dissemination strategies, and human resource strategy under overall Strategy for the Development of National Statistical System (2016‐2025) would be very critical to further strengthen the national statistical system’s capacity to produce reliable and timely data to the GOL for evidence‐based policy making.
. .
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ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS
A. RESULTS INDICATORS A.1 PDO Indicators
Objective/Outcome: To produce reliable and timely macroeconomic and poverty statistics in accordance with international standards
Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised
Target
Actual Achieved at Completion
Macroeconomic and poverty related statistical capacity score improved and disaggregated by:
Number 61.00 75.00 65.00
31‐Dec‐2011 30‐Jun‐2017 22‐Jun‐2017
(a) Methodology Number 50.00 65.00 50.00
31‐Dec‐2011 30‐Jun‐2017 22‐Jun‐2017
(b) Source Data Number 50.00 65.00 60.00
31‐Dec‐2011 30‐Jun‐2017 22‐Jun‐2017
(c) Periodicity & timeliness:
Number 74.00 85.00 93.00
31‐Dec‐2011 30‐Jun‐2017 22‐Jun‐2017
Comments (achievements against targets):
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Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised
Target
Actual Achieved at Completion
A comprehensive macroeconomic framework is developed and used within the GOL for policy making and planning process.
Text None is available. Framework is institutionalized.
Framework is institutionalized.
31‐Dec‐2012 30‐Jun‐2017 20‐Dec‐2017
Comments (achievements against targets): A macroeconomic framework was developed jointly by the Government's macroeconomic working group and it has been used by the National Institute of Economic Research (NIER)‐‐the lead think thank of the Government of Lao PDR. By using the framework, NIER has been able to produce annual macroeconomic review on a regular basis to inform decision making and economic policy formulation.
Objective/Outcome: To disseminate macroeconomic and poverty statistics in response to user needs.
Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised
Target
Actual Achieved at Completion
User satisfaction with macroeconomic and poverty statistical products and services of the NSS (disaggregated by LBS and SMAs) improved.
Percentage 33.00 52.80 34.00
28‐Mar‐2014 30‐Jun‐2017 28‐Feb‐2018
Comments (achievements against targets): The actual baseline from the LSB's satisfaction survey in 2014 was 33 percent instead of 49, previously reported in the ISRs. Likewise, the formulation of the end target of this indicator was that there would be an improvement in user satisfaction by 60 percent at the end of the project. Based this formulation, the correct end target for this indicator was 54.78 percent. LBS should be LSB because LBS was incorrectly entered in the indicator narrative. NSS refers to the national statistical system.
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A.2 Intermediate Results Indicators
Component: A: Strengthening Macroeconomic and Poverty Data Development and Management
Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised
Target
Actual Achieved at Completion
Macroeconomic statistics (especially GDP and prices) are produced in line with internationally accepted standards.
Text Poor qualiy Quality improved. Quality improved.
28‐Dec‐2012 30‐Jun‐2017 27‐Oct‐2017
Comments (achievements against targets):
Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised
Target
Actual Achieved at Completion
Social and demographic statistics (particularly household and poverty data including sex‐disaggregated data) are produced in line with internationally accepted standards.
Text Partially use of international standards
International standards fully applied.
International standards fully applied.
28‐Dec‐2012 30‐Jun‐2017 22‐Jun‐2017
Comments (achievements against targets):
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Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised
Target
Actual Achieved at Completion
Internationally accepted standards, classifications and methodologies in macroeconomic and poverty related data collection, compilation, and validation are in place.
Text Partially in use, especially data collected from administrative reporting system.
International standards applied.
International standards mostly applied except for some administrative sources.
28‐Dec‐2012 30‐Jun‐2016 22‐Jun‐2017
Comments (achievements against targets): International standards, classifications and methodologies were mostly applied in macroeconomic and poverty related data. However, some sectoral economic data collection and compilation has not been fully in use of international standards, classifications and methodologies in reality. This has been a major issue on the quality of source data and it has constrained the production of quarterly GDP and GDP by expenditure and income approaches.
Component: B: Improving Policies and Strengthening Implementation Capacity
Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised
Target
Actual Achieved at Completion
Interagency coordination mechanism
Text Project Steering Committee (PSC) and Statistical Working Group (SWG) will be in place including necessary regulations should be prepared.
Inter‐agency coordination improved.
Inter‐agency coordination improved.
28‐Dec‐2012 30‐Jun‐2017 10‐Nov‐2017
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Comments (achievements against targets): PSC and SWG were established in 2014. Inter‐agency coordination improved through a regular conduct of relevant agencies meetings and consultations on statistical issues including data collection, compilation, analysis and dissemination.
Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised
Target
Actual Achieved at Completion
Human resource management strategy is in place and LBS and SMA staff trained and maintained their skills.
Text No human resource strategy and training program is in place
Human resource strategy is implemented.
Human resource strategy is partially implemented.
28‐Dec‐2012 30‐Jun‐2017 30‐Nov‐2017
Comments (achievements against targets): The human resource strategy was approved by LSB in 2016. However, the institutional capacity plan (ICP) was finalized and formally approved by LSB by end‐Nov 2017. LBS should be LSB but it was entered incorrectly.
Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised
Target
Actual Achieved at Completion
Data user‐producer dialog established and functional
Text The dialogue is random and infrequent
Data user‐producer dialogue improved.
Data user‐producer dialogue improved.
28‐Dec‐2012 30‐Jun‐2017 20‐Dec‐2017
Comments (achievements against targets): The annual data user‐producer forum (dialogue) was organized regularly. The last forum was conducted in June 2017. LSB has continued to conduct the data user‐producer dialogue through various channels including the last one that was conducted on International Statistics Day in October 2017.
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Component: C: Improving Data Sharing and Access
Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised
Target
Actual Achieved at Completion
Dissemination strategy is developed and implementation plan is prepared.
Text No policy. Drafting process started.
Dissemination strategy in place.
Dissemination strategy in place.
28‐Dec‐2012 30‐Jun‐2017 20‐Dec‐2017
Comments (achievements against targets): The dissemination strategy was prepared and approved in March 2017. A subsequent dissemination plan were prepared and approved by LSB. The strategy has been only partially implemented.
Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised
Target
Actual Achieved at Completion
IT plan for LBS and SMAs is developed and implemented.
Text No plan Good plans in place and implemented.
Good plan in place but partially implemented.
28‐Dec‐2012 30‐Jun‐2017 20‐Dec‐2017
Comments (achievements against targets): The ICT strategy and action plan were in place. The implementation of the ICT plan has started including the key IT infrastructure and capacity building supports financed by the project. The multi‐year ICT Plan has been initially implemented by LSB between 2016 and 2017. More outputs under the ICT Plan still need to be delivered during the remaining period of the plan. As mentioned previously, LBS should be LSB.
Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised
Target
Actual Achieved at Completion
LSB web portal improved with increased number of
Text Needs significant improvement.
The web portal improved.
The web portal improved.
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data available. 28‐Dec‐2012 30‐Jun‐2017 20‐Dec‐2017
Comments (achievements against targets): The web portal improved but it has not been launched by LSB. It has some issues with migration of datasets that are in various forms, most notably MS Access in different versions and there would need to be migrated into a newer version and the database format. LSB still operates its data dissemination with three different domains namely Lao Info, Lao Decide Info and LNADA that were previously supported by different donors. The new web portal supported by LAOSTAT project was to centralize and rationalize into a single public domain while various older domains will remain for internal use. However, LSB has not decided to take action for launching the new web portal developed.
Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised
Target
Actual Achieved at Completion
IT staff trained and retained their skills.
Text Limited number of IT staff and skills.
Skills learned and applied.
Skills learned and applied.
28‐Dec‐2012 30‐Jun‐2017 20‐Dec‐2017
Comments (achievements against targets): The IT skills of LSB staff has been strengthened. Intensive workshops and training on key IT competency and skills including database administration and development, system administration, ICT security, access/visual studio developers with SQL, application software (CAPI/STATA/SPSS), networking and infrastructure maintenance were delivered to LSB ICT staff. However, key issue is the limited number of qualified IT staff available for obtaining the required training. LSB would need to recruit more qualified IT staff.
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B. KEY OUTPUTS BY COMPONENT
Objective/Outcome 1: To produce reliable and timely macroeconomic and poverty statistics in accordance with international standards
Outcome Indicators
1. Macroeconomic and poverty related statistical capacity score improved and disaggregated by: methodology, source data, and periodicity and timeliness
2. A comprehensive macroeconomic framework is developed and used within the GOL for policy making and planning process
Intermediate Results Indicators
1. Macroeconomic statistics (especially GDP and prices) are produced in line with internationally accepted standards
2. Social and demographic statistics (particularly household and poverty data, including sex‐disaggregated data) are produced in line with internationally accepted standards
3. Internationally accepted standards, classifications, and methodologies in macroeconomic and poverty related data collection, compilation, and validation are in place
Key Outputs by Component (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 1)
1. National SNA manual and methodology developed. 2. Re‐benchmarking of the national accounts to 2012. 3. National account development strategy and methodology was
developed and implemented. 4. Generic methods and tools for economic surveys were
developed and used. 5. SUT. 6. Surveys on IIP and international trade in services were
completed.
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7. Guidelines and measures to have data quality assurance for surveys and administrative data were developed and used.
8. Training on national accounts, economic survey method, and data quality assurance was delivered.
9. Macroeconomic framework and modeling capacity was built and used by the GOL.
Objective/Outcome 2: To disseminate macroeconomic and poverty statistics in response to user needs.
Outcome Indicators 1. User satisfaction with macroeconomic and poverty statistical
products and services of the national statistical system (disaggregated by LSB and SMAs) improved.
Intermediate Results Indicators
1. Interagency coordination mechanism 2. Human resource management strategy is in place and LSB and
SMA staff trained and maintained their skills 3. Data user‐producer dialog established and functional 4. Dissemination strategy was developed, and implementation
plan is prepared 5. IT plan for LBS and SMAs is developed and implemented 6. LSB web portal improved with increased number of data
available 7. IT staff trained and retained their skills
Key Outputs by Component (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 2)
1. Institutional capacity plan was developed and implemented. 2. Human resource strategy and implementation plan were
developed and implemented. 3. Coordination of the national statistical system was
strengthened. 4. Training on management and coordination was completed. 5. Data dissemination strategy and implementation plan were
developed and implemented.
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6. Metadata development strategy. 7. ICT plan for the national statistical system. 8. ICT system established for LSB. 9. Statistical datasets partially migrated to the new server and
LSB web portal. 10. Manuals on contents and publication design and
maintenance. 11. Training on dissemination, metadata, and ICT.
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ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION
A. TASK TEAM MEMBERS
Name Role
Preparation
Somneuk Davading Senior Economist/Task Team Leader(s)
Mustafa Dinc Senior Economist/Statistician
Genevieve F. Boyreau Senior Country Economist
Carlos E. Sobrado Senior Poverty Specialist
Naomi J. Halewood ICT Policy Specialist
Richard Record Senior Trade Specialist
Keomanivone Phimmahasay Economist
Christopher Robert Fabling Senior Financial Management Specialist
No. of staff weeks US$ (including travel and consultant costs)
Preparation
FY13 1.000 3,835.20
Total 1.00 3,835.20 Supervision/ICR
FY12 21.016 79,957.90
FY13 7.165 13,566.02
FY14 25.530 41,708.82
FY15 33.950 43,864.74
FY16 52.240 123,763.57
FY17 50.173 134,544.78
FY18 41.265 111,727.29
FY19 11.602 25,435.68
Total 242.94 574,568.80
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ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT
Components Amount at Approval
(US$, million)
Actual at Project Closing (US$,
million)
Percentage of Approval (US$,
million)
A. Strengthening Macroeconomic and Poverty Data Development and Management
3.13 3.13 100
B. Improving Policies and Strengthening Implementation Capacity
1.16 1.16 100
C. Improving Data Access and Sharing
2.69 2.68 100
D. Supporting LAOSTAT Project Management
0.80 0.80 100
Unallocated budget 0.23 0.23 100
Total 8.00 8.00 100
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ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS
Introduction
1. An economic analysis was conducted at the ICR stage to assess the resource efficiency and cost‐effectiveness of the project. The economic analysis is, however, constrained by the characteristics of the project that are not amenable to a cost and benefit analysis as it was argued at the time of appraisal. In such circumstance, the economic analysis at the ICR stage was also limited but was intended to assess resource efficiency and cost effectiveness by looking at some broad economic benefits resulted from project investments.
Economic Analysis at Appraisal
2. At the appraisal stage, the project was characterized as nonamenable to a cost and benefit analysis. However, at the time of appraisal, the economic benefits of the project were assumed to be derived from three main sources: First, existence of data would enhance the potential for evidence‐based decision making, at policy, program, and project levels. Second, an improved statistical system in Lao PDR would enable the GOL and international community to measure and track the results of national development programs and plans, including the NSEDP implementation, MDGs, and the GOL’s vision 2020. Third, the efficiency would be improved from better allocation of resources and more effective implementation of planned and ongoing development programs.
3. Likewise, there was not financial analysis at appraisal as the LSB does not operate on commercial terms. Some general assumptions were highlighted as follows:
(a) National statistics are a public good and are generally financed from tax revenue and aid as they have limited potential for cost recovery.
(b) Costs of statistical reports and data for sales are kept at minimum to foster demand and use of statistics.
(c) Only marginal financial returns are expected from the project because reports are often produced on the basis of usefulness to the whole development community, but not to generate any significant fiscal revenue.
Economic Analysis at ICR
4. At ICR, the economic analysis of the project focused on broad economic benefits and welfare gains in three ways: (a) timely production of macroeconomic and poverty statistics would increase cost saving for the LSB and reduce waiting times for statistical users; (b) quality production of macroeconomic and poverty statistics would minimize efforts of users to further verify and gather more evidence; and (c) effective dissemination of statistics would increase data sharing and reduce the time that users take to access to statistics (metadata, administrative data, macrodata, and survey data). Since this project was not to generate any additional revenue for the LSB or the economy, cost savings, and value of time saved for the LSB and the economy are key benefits gained through the project’s support. With some caution,
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these benefits are interpreted only in the context of availability of and access to statistics. The analysis period is from 2013 to 2021, covering the project life and beyond with the assumption that some of the benefits require time to be gained as several strategies and plans are being implemented. The discount rate was maintained at 5 percent. The expected economic benefits were estimated based on the assumptions shown in table 4.1.
Table 1. Key Assumptions for an Economic Analysis
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
Baseline (back track to 2013)
Unit Targets (%)
Description Actual (2018)
Unit
GDP growth 7 a year
Cost saving because of efficiency improvement
Staff months 720 staff months
10 Drops in year 3 of the project forward because of efficiency improvement in statistical production
10 Percent drop
Waiting time between production and release Macroeconomic statistics
18 months 33 Drops 12 Months
Poverty statistics (LECS)
24 months 25 Drops 18 Months
Economic census
24 months 25 Drops 24 Months
AHS 18 months 25 Drops 24 Months
Time take to access to statistics Macroeconomic statistics
0.5 months 50 Drops because of improved dissemination for data access and sharing
0.25 Months
Poverty statistics (LECS)
2 months 50 Drops 2 Months
Economic census
2 months 50 Drops 2 Months
AHS 2 months 50 Drops 2 Months
5. Based on these assumptions, the project’s key benefits at ICR are more cost savings and some
welfare gains. This project was not to generate any revenue flows for the LSB. The IRR was estimated at 6
percent and the NPV was estimated at US$6,149,508. First, the project investments contributed to more
timely production of statistics especially macroeconomic and poverty statistics that could save some
administrative costs for the LSB in comparison with the baseline costs which the LSB would have without
the project. The incremental cost saving was estimated at US$214,478 or 7 percent of the LSB’s total
administrative costs. Likewise, the incremental value of time saved for the LSB was also estimated at
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US$526,863. The value of time saved was translated to infer an incremental saving for the economy that
was also estimated at US$8,579,499 or about 0.01 percent of GDP.
Table 2. Estimated Economic Benefits
Description At Appraisal At ICR
Estimated savings Incremental administrative cost savings for the LSB (2013–2021)
— US$214,478
Incremental saving for the value of time saved to the LSB (2013–2021)
— US$526,863
Incremental savings for the value of time saved to the economy (2013–2021)
— US$8,579,499
IRR and NPV estimation IRR — 6 %
NPV — US$6,149,508
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ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO‐FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS
CONSOLIDATED COMMENTS from the LSB, LAOSTAT and CSTA team
on the IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT
(SRF‐CTF GRANT TF014613)
We would like to thank the WB for giving us opportunity to provide comments on the draft Implementation Completion and Results Report (ICR) dated 6 September 2018. After consultation with the members of the National Implementation and Coordination Team (NICT), the LAOSTAT Consultancy Services for a Twinning Arrangement (CSTA) as well as the respective departments of the LSB, we have prepared a list of comments and suggestions below (general and specific comments) for your consideration.
General comments: Overall, the ICR is well written and aligned with LSB’s Project Completion Report. We agree with most of what has been assessed in the ICR. Nevertheless, we have three observations below:
− The assessment of the outcomes and the associated rating: considering the discussion on the limitations of the PDO indicators selected, the team considers that there could be a case for upgrading the Outcome rating to Satisfactory considering the outputs of the project as reflected in the achievement against the Intermediary Results Indicators.
− The World Bank’s performance: In absence of evidence of shortcomings included in the ICR, again the team considers that there could be a case for upgrading the Bank Performance’s rating to Satisfactory.
− The lessons learned: It would be helpful to include more discussion in the ICR on the efficacy or otherwise of the public‐private partnership approach adopted. Perhaps also, more emphasis on the role of the twinning arrangement in the project could be put as most activities and outputs mentioned have benefitted from significant contributions from the modality.
Specific comments: The comments are organized following the ICR structure.
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I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES
A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL
Context
§5 (paragraph 5)
Fully using the 1993 SNA was not possible partly because of the poor quality of the BOP statistics (compiled by the Central Bank). It is extremely doubtful that a small country like Lao should or could fully implement the SNA as in large sophisticated economies.
B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION (IF APPLICABLE)
II. OUTCOME
A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs
B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY)
Table 1. Summary of indicators and achievement The percentages of achievement should not assume the base (starting) value to be zero. If the calculation is indeed to be made, it should be in the form ((End actual value minus base value) / (End target value minus base value)) * 100. But it is not clear how the calculation would add much to the analysis.
Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective/Outcome
Objective 1: Produce reliable and timely macroeconomic and poverty statistics in accordance with
international standards
§28
As mentioned earlier, transition from 1993 to 2008 SNA is one thing. This was done for that part of the SNA that was being compiled. That Lao PDR is not fully using the 2008 SNA is another. It was not fully using the 1993 SNA. The project did not extent the scope of the SNA use. This was not possible partly because of the poor quality of the BOP statistics (compiled by the Central Bank). It is extremely doubtful that a small economy like Lao should or could fully implement the SNA as in large sophisticated economies. But there is perhaps a need to focus on benchmarking the BOP as well as the GDP.
There is no way to estimate GDP by expenditure reliably without high quality continuous household expenditure data. Very costly in a small country.
Quarterly GDP covering all formal activities is not possible without access to VAT data. Although access to VAT data was not achieved until the very end of the project, this was a big breakthrough.
Enterprise surveys for this are costly and usually unreliable. In fact, successful comprehensive enterprise surveys yielding reliable financial data (including cost structures) are extremely rare. Focusing on a particular economic activity at a time seems to be a better approach.
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The extrapolation system put in place would require additional specialist support to be sustainable.
Insert after §34
The development and promotion of generic methods and quality assurance (LOSQAF) should probably be more explicitly mentioned among the main outputs of the project. Even though the effective implementation has been limited, this was an addition to the original requirements and a response to needs expressed by LSB that have laid the basis for a more methodical and effective way of conducting surveys and assessing their quality in the future.
Insert after §35
The ICP would also deserve a mention. At LSB’s request, priority was first given to the preparation of a Human Resources Framework and HR Strategy and Implementation Plan, which also necessitated the early drafting of a Training and Development Plan (including management and coordination training) on the basis of a training needs analysis that had been conducted.
Although the development of the Institutional Capacity Plan (ICP) commenced later than originally planned, it was noted that it could be viewed as the most important of the CSTA project deliverables, as it provided not only the basis for LSB’s efforts to build capacity but also a template for future resource mobilization.
Justification of Overall Efficacy Rating
Rating: Substantial
§44
The overall assessment “Substantial” seems reasonable.
Because of the nature of the SCI, it is uncertain whether it will reflect ‘recent achievements made by the client’. See “Note on the World Bank Statistical Capacity Indicator” for more details.
Similarly, and as evoked earlier in the report, there is by nature a lag between eventual improvements in the dissemination capacity and the translation into improved user satisfaction measurable in the user satisfaction survey.
C. EFFICIENCY
D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING
Rating: Moderately Satisfactory
§47
Based on the PDO indicators selected it is difficult to assess the overall outcome of the project.
Concerning the SCI, there may be delays or omissions by the country issuing the information, and/or on
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the part of the respective international organizations in updating their databases from which the Bank compiles the SCI. The 2018 SCI figures which should be published shortly should help clarify the situation. More generally and as mentioned earlier, an evaluation of statistical capacity based on the World Bank Statistical Capacity Indicator should be conducted with full recognition of its limitations. The SCI is considered useful as a broad indicator of statistical capacity. However, the SCI, with its preponderant use of statistical activities and outputs as its component indicators, is a better measure of the statistical performance than statistical capacity. Even in this case using pluri‐annual moving averages rather than single year figures would be more advisable. See “Note on the World Bank Statistical Capacity Indicator” for more details.
Concerning the USS, and as evoked earlier in the report, there is by nature a lag between eventual improvements in the dissemination capacity and the translation into improved user satisfaction measurable in the user satisfaction survey. This limits the quality of the USS as PDO indicator.
In light of the achievements against the IRI and despite the mixed results against the PDO indicators, it is considered that the project has permitted to make significant progress towards the achievement of the stated overall objective to improve the capacity of the Lao national statistical system to produce and disseminate reliable and timely macroeconomic and poverty statistics in accordance with international standards and in response to user needs. Hence there may be a case for upgrading the project Rating from Moderately Satisfactory to Satisfactory.
IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME
A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E)
M&E Design
§56
As evoked earlier in the report, there is by nature a lag between eventual improvements in the dissemination capacity and the translation into improved user satisfaction measurable in the user satisfaction survey. This limits the quality of the USS as PDO indicator.
§57
“this indicator source was not updated on a regular basis to reflect the progress made in the field” The (published) SCI being updated annually, it is unclear what is meant by this statement. We agree however that there may be delays or omissions by the country issuing the information, and/or on the part of the respective international organizations in updating their databases from which the Bank compiles the SCI. More generally and as mentioned earlier, an evaluation of statistical capacity based on the World Bank Statistical Capacity Indicator should be conducted with full recognition of its limitations. The SCI is considered useful as a broad indicator of statistical capacity. However, the SCI, with its preponderant use of statistical activities and outputs as its component indicators, is a better measure of the statistical performance than statistical capacity. Even in this case using pluri‐annual moving averages rather than single year figures would be more advisable. See “Note on the World Bank Statistical Capacity Indicator” for more details.
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§58
“Nearly all intermediate outcome indicators were descriptive, but not quantitative. Likewise, the means of verification for these indicators were also descriptive and were not in any references of an independent assessment of the targets. Such weakness in the indicators left some quality gaps that the project should focus on to track the quality of progress and achievement in the intermediate and PDO results.”
The team agrees with the statement but is simultaneously wondering whether anything could have been specified that would be more quantitative and at the same time meaningful and realistic of attainment.
M&E Implementation
§61
The delays in updating the second PDO might be an issue but it is doubtful that it is the only one surrounding the SCI.
M&E Utilization
§62
“the second PDO indicator was an indicator that LSB could keep tracks of its performance in the future because it relies on an open source that does not require much of an effort by LSB to undertake to obtain the data and verification for the source. In addition, this indicator measures three main dimensions: methodology, source data and periodicity and timeliness.”
True, but the SCI is quite a blunt instrument, especially over a relatively short time period. See the 2016 “Note on the World Bank Statistical Capacity Indicator” for the IEG for some of the strengths and limitations of the SCI.
Justification of Overall Rating of Quality of M&E
Rating: Modest
§63
“The overall statistical score was not reflected because of gaps in communication and time lags in the update of the score by international organizations.”
Again, this is likely to be only part of the problem.
B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE
C. BANK PERFORMANCE
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Justification of Overall Rating of Bank Performance
“The overall rating of World Bank performance is Moderately Satisfactory, because of the moderate shortcomings in supervision.”
Having read paragraph 75 and 76, where no negative comments can be found, it can be considered surprising that this rating is not higher. Without evidence of the ‘moderate shortcomings in supervision’ to be provided in order to justify the rating given, a “Satisfactory” rating would be considered more appropriate. D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME
§71 and §72
The team agrees with the risks presented and much of them are reflected in the conclusions and recommendations of the CSTA report V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
§73
“During the appraisal, the detailed assessments of organizational and operational capacity was missing.”
This was true to some extent at the design stage (the assessment was made in the PAD, arguably not sufficiently), but this was compensated for (again to some extent) by the assessment activities at the start of each of the 3 substantive components. However, they would no doubt have been more useful if they could have been conducted earlier in the LAOSTAT project as a whole.
“However, because of the delays in procurement and in LSB new building’s construction, several outputs were delivered late and the LSB had limited absorptive technical capacity to translate technical recommendations and action plans into results within the timeframe of the project.”
More generally the team considers that the main factor explaining the delay in recruitment of the local procurement and financial management consultants (and the consequent initial delays in procurement) is the limited pool of fiduciary professionals in the Lao labor market. In addition, there was a mismatch between the budget available and the salary expectation of some of the suitably experienced and qualified consultants.
§74
“Future support should focus on making organizational and operational changes for the national statistical system in order to have good quality of administrative sources in particular disaggregated data.”
§75
“Selection of project indicators must be carefully assessed with regard to data sources, frequency, and accessibility to ensure timely update of project targets”
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The project M&E framework should clearly identify project expected inputs, outputs, outcomes and eventually impacts (the latter being more appropriate for programme rather than project support).
“Using WB statistical capacity indicators (SCI) to assess capacity of national statistical systems was relevant to track improvement in key dimensions of statistical capacity but they have not been updated more frequently in the expected reporting time intervals. In this project, the SCI is used as one of three key PDO result indicators but updating the indicator was challenging because SCI has not updated frequently. The process of updating the SCIs has also been complex and time consuming”
As noted earlier, this is probably only part of the problem and may need to be further discussed. As mentioned earlier, an evaluation of statistical capacity based on the World Bank Statistical Capacity Indicator should be conducted with full recognition of its limitations. The SCI is considered useful as a broad indicator of statistical capacity. However, the SCI, with its preponderant use of statistical activities and outputs as its component indicators, is a better measure of the statistical performance than statistical capacity. Even in this case using pluri‐annual moving averages rather than single year figures would be more advisable.
§76
“Further support to the LSB is highly recommended.” ‐ It is even considered essential.
“Further support to LSB to translate some outputs and key strategy documents into results is highly recommended.” ‐ The team fully agrees with this statement.
In addition to the lesson learned already mentioned in the report, the team proposes to add the following one on the CSTA role:
The Team noted that the burden on LSB management had been alleviated through the adoption of a twinning approach: The Bureau had to deal with only one implementing entity, relieving it of the necessity of recruiting and managing many individual consultants and of monitoring their interventions. In addition to the constant presence on‐site of the project team, the strengths of the public‐private partnership arrangement adopted included continuous backstopping support, access to a vast pool of highly qualified experts, the ability to finance their early mobilization and rapid deployment, the efficient coordination of Team members’ work, flexibility in meeting changing priorities, and the potential to ensure the sustainability of the project’s impact. However, the implementation of the twinning approach requires timely availability of appropriate capacity for processing large procurement packages and availability of the client to work effectively with the technical team from the twinning arrangement.
.
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ANNEX 6. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS (IF ANY)
I. Lao PDR Policy and Strategy Documents
(a) Law on Statistics issued on June 30, 2010, National Assembly.
(b) Strategy for the Development of National Statistical System (SDNSS) 2010–2020, Lao PDR. Lao Statistics Bureau (LSB), Ministry of Investment and Planning (MPI).
(c) Seventh National Socio‐Economic Development Plan (NSEDP) for 2011–2015, October 2011, the Government of Lao PDR.
(d) Eighth National Socio‐Economic Development Plan (NSEDP) for 2016–2020.
II. World Bank Group Engagement Strategy Documents
(a) Lao People's Democratic Republic ‐ Country Partnership Strategy for the Period FY12–FY16, Report # 66692, dated January 25, 2012, World Bank.
(b) Country Partnership Framework for Lao People's Democratic Republic for the Period FY2017–2021, Report # 110813, dated March 2, 2017, the World Bank Group.
III. Project and Financing Documents
(a) Aide Mémoires for Project Implementation Support Missions, World Bank, 2013–2018.
(b) Project Implementation Status and Results Reports (ISRs), World Bank, 2013–2018.
(d) Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Trust Fund Grant Agreement dated May 17, 2013.
IV. Other documents
(a) Consultants’ Deliverables financed under the LAOSTAT.
(b) Progress reports of the LAOSTAT from 2014–2018.
(c) Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund: Annual Report 2017, dated May 2017.
(d) Report of Lao PDR’s macroeconomic review in 2017 and its trend in 2018, March 2018, NIER.
(e) Lao People’s Democratic Republic: Staff Report for the 2002 Article IV Consultation and Second Review under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility, and Request for Waiver of Performance Criteria, dated July 12, 2002, IMF.
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(f) Lao People’s Democratic Republic: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2016 Article IV Consultation with the Lao People's Democratic Republic, dated February 15, 2017, IMF.
(g) Lao People’s Democratic Republic: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2017 Article IV Consultation with the Lao People's Democratic Republic, dated February 23, 2018, IMF.
(h) Technical Assistance Report: Updating and Constructing the Supply and Use Tables for Selected Developing Member Countries, Project # 48387‐001 Regional—Capacity Development Technical Assistance (RCDTA), December 2014.
End notes
i The SRF‐CF provides statistical capacity‐building support to several developing countries (pilot countries), such as Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ghana, Lao PDR, Nigeria, and Rwanda.
ii SMAs include technical departments in the MPI, MOF, BOL, MOIC, and MEM.
iii SNA 2008 is a statistical framework that provides a comprehensive, consistent, and flexible set of macroeconomic accounts for policy making, analysis, and research purposes. The SNA 2008 manual was jointly issued by the United Nations, the World Bank Group, IMF, Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development, and European Commission in 2009 Further details can be accessed at https://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/docs/sna2008.pdf.
iv SUT was first introduced for the GDP rebase to 1997 and 2002 at an aggregate level in line with the SNA 1993 Methodology or Manual. The 2012 SUT was initially supported by a technical assistance project of the ADB focusing on procedures, training and workshops on how to compile required data to populate the SUT. The Lao PDR Strengthening of the National Statistical System (LAOSTAT) was to fill the gaps and to assemble more datasets, including some new surveys for the 2012 SUT finalization.
v The 2012 SUT was constructed with two digits of the International Standard Industrial Classification Revision 4 and includes 215 products of the LCPA. Finalization of the SUT for Lao PDR was challenging because of (a) poor quality of data collection from both surveys and administrative sources (for example, the LSB was not able to exploit information on business turnover from value added taxes and other taxes) and (b) methodologies, including questionnaires that were used for the annual enterprises survey and the AHS did not include details on the costs of production.
vi The 2012 SUT framework has five parts: Part A on Production Accounts, Part B on Balance of Supply and Demand; Part C on An Intermediate Consumption Matrix; Part D on Make or Supply Matrix; and Part E on Further Details of GVA. The SUT framework if all datasets are compiled could incorporate all three approaches to measure GDP: Part A covers the Production Approach; Part B covers the Expenditure Approach; and Part E covers the Income Approach.
vii RAS method is a well‐known method for data reconciliation. Its aim is to achieve consistency between the entries of some nonnegative matrix and pre‐specified row and column totals. The method was devised in a time when powerful computers were not available. It is very easy to apply and to understand. However, it has a narrow scope of applicability. It can only be applied to nonnegative matrices. Mathematically, the method is an iterative scaling method.
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viii Each survey covered 402 enterprises in 17 provinces and was stratified across the following sectors: (a) agriculture, forestry, and fishing; (b) manufacturing; (c) mining and quarrying; (d) wholesale and retail trade; (e) construction; and (f) electricity supply.
ix The MMFT was represented by the MPI (Department of Planning and LSB), MOF, BOL, MOIC, MEM, NUOL, the Ministry of Labor and Social Welfare (MOLSW), and NIER (which was then called the National Economic Research Institute under the MPI).
x The components of a metadata management system include (a) setting up a metadata unit in the LSB in charge of metadata management and a working group represented by all statistical domains and cross‐cutting units; (b) creating a repository to handle statistical concepts, classifications, and code lists; and (c) defining a common data modelling system for statistical domains that facilitates statistical dissemination.
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