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Does Frustration lead to Violence?
Does Frustration lead to Violence?
By Taleisha Jones, Daniel Peterson, Itzcally Ponce and Tran Vuong
OverviewOverview
• Introduction - Taleisha
• Research Procedures- Tran
• Results & Long Term Applications - Itzcally
• Critiques - Everyone
• Analysis of:
• Duhem - Tran
• Kuhn & Popper - Daniel
• Conclusion - Taleisha
IntroductionIntroduction
• Does Frustration Lead to Violence? Evidence from the Swedish Hooligan Scene by Mikael Priks
• Sweden, 2010
• Italian Soccer Game, 2007• 100 people injured• One officer killed
Background Background
• Hooliganism
• Assistant Professor at Stockholm University
• Research interests: Political Economics, Public Finance and Law and Economics.
Research ProceduresResearch Procedures
• An economic research with 3 analyses examining:
• Relationship of spectators frustration and position of their supporting team
• Psychology patterns of spectators: violence level when the game is played on home field or away
• Norm-breaking behavior from participants in organized hooligan violence
Model and Data SourceModel and Data Source
• Model: Multi-variable Linear Regression
• Data Source:
• Analysis 1 & 2: from referees at the Swedish league Allsvenskan stadium
• Analysis 3: Swedish hooligan organization Firman Boys
ResultsResults
• Table Two: Frustration and Unruly Behavior
• Team performs worse in terms of position in the league, supporters are more likely to be disorderly.
• One drop in league position leads to an increase on the number of incidents in a game by 6 percent.
• Absolute position in the league does not affect unruly behavior
• Based on the results, supporters do not seem aggressive when their favorite team performs consistently bad.
ResultsResults
• Table Three: Frustration and Unruly Behavior by Home and Away Supporters
• Home supporters act more unruly when their team under performs and falls in league standings. The chance of incidents increases by 9%.
• Supporters do not respond to a negative change in their team's league standing, when at away games.
ResultsResults
• Table Four: Frustration and the Number of Supporters Per Game
• No significant correlation to suggest that fans base their decision to go or not go to a game based on the previous match's result.
• Improved absolute position in the league does increase the number of organized supporters.
• A one-position improvement leads to 31 more organized supporters or a 5 percent increase in supporters.
ResultsResults
• Table Five: Frustration and Norm Breaking• Frustration due to a one-position drop in standings
does not affect the number of incidents when hooligans use weapons in fights
• Frustration due to a one-position drop in standings
affects the number of bottle throwing incidents by
15 %.• Frustration due to a one-position drop in standings
affects norm-braking of kicking someone when they are on the ground by 25 %.
Interpretation of ResultsInterpretation of Results
• Team's worsen performance, relative to team's position in league standings, can trigger aggressive behavior.
• Therefore, Hooligan violence is not spontaneous.
Long Term ApplicationsLong Term Applications
• This information can help police officers asses how frustrated fans might be before a match.
• This will allow them to coordinate a strategy to prevent and stop hooligan violence
Long Term ApplicationsLong Term Applications
• Information can also help law enforcement with group violence (e.g. street gangs) in general.
• This information can help policy makers formulate a strategy to prevent and stop group violence.
CritiquesCritiques
• Flaws in research gathering methods:
• Research is all second hand sources from referee's in Swedish soccer league
• Referee's reports maybe unreliable since there first priority is to officiate the soccer match, thrill seeking and immediate frustrations).
CritiquesCritiques
• How can they be so certain what fans, home or away, are acting unruly?
• If the reports are of single incidents, we can factor in many more reasons for disorderly conduct (Alcohol, thrill seeking and immediate frustrations).
CritiquesCritiques
• Alcohol Consumption• Altercations• Misguided frustration
• Conformity• Frustration or following the crowd?
Critiques Critiques
Why is it irrelevant to: Labor Supply• Unemployment: Seasonal, Structural, Cyclical and
Frictional.
• Frictional unemployment: small portion in total & not follow Supply & Demand
• High-paid jobs and the unemployed are not willing to accept lower paying jobs until they find good ones.
CritiquesCritiques
Why is it irrelevant to: Price-Setting
• Firms target a reference price point when they launch a new product which demand is too hard to estimate.
• Firms adjust price after having some understanding about market and demand.
CritiquesCritiques
Linear Regression Model: Very low R2
-How probable the observations/variables can explain for Y?
-How confident the model can be explanatory to the theory?
Answer: R2 needs to be high, ~ 80%
-Research provided: R2 <30%
Critiques based on Duhem’s work
Critiques based on Duhem’s work
• Is the researcher open-minded or blinded by desire for certain results?• Influence
• Data collection bias
• Is the researcher aware of holism of theory, apparatus, and auxiliary hypotheses?• Eliminating a subset of evidence
Popper’s ViewPopper’s View
• Falsifiability is described as the situation in which (1) no positive result can either confirm or verify a hypothesis, yet (2) any single negative result has the ability to disprove it.
• Is it violated?
• Is it followed?
Popper’s View – Violated?Popper’s View – Violated?
• Frustration-Aggression Hypothesis:
Thwarted expectations from a reference point that should lead to aggression.
• The results found to be a confirmation of the hypothesis, a positive result (1). This means the issue of falsifiability is violated.
Popper’s View – Followed?Popper’s View – Followed?
• It was not explicitly stated that falsifiability was followed.
• Falsifiability: (2) any single negative result may disprove the hypothesis.
• Priks allowed for this negative result
Kuhn’s ViewKuhn’s View
• Community Paradigm:
• Source bias: Stockholm University: Department of Economics
• Busy work or New Paradigm?
• Paradigm & Political Agenda
Kuhn’s View - BiasKuhn’s View - Bias
“The data is ideal since I know which team’s supporters are involved in the unruly behavior. I can therefore study how a team’s performance affects the unruly behavior by its supporters.” - Priks
Kuhn’s View – Busy WorkKuhn’s View – Busy Work
• It is not a new paradigm, but busy work that this research underscores.
• The research grasps for validation of the frustration-aggression hypothesis.
Kuhn’s View – ParadigmKuhn’s View – Paradigm
• The paradigm is essentially underscored by this statement from Priks:
“this notion [Frustration-Aggression Hypothesis] can help explaining youth violence, terrorism, and aggression in the workplace”
(research citations removed)
Kuhn’s View – ParadigmKuhn’s View – Paradigm
• Does this paradigm lend to the study of such specific validating research as Swedish Hooliganism?
• This underlying agenda suggests a bias for the research results, and discord between the results and the truth of the hypothesis.
ConclusionConclusion
• Does Frustration Lead to Violence?
ReferenceReference
• Priks, M. (2010). Does Frustration Lead to Violence? Evidence from the Swedish Hooligan Scene. Kyklos, 63(3), 450-460.
doi:10.1111/j.1467-6435.2010.00482.x.
QuestionsQuestions