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'Migration, Immigration & Changing Bor'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006ach, Dec 1st 2006
11
Does (will) global Does (will) global environmental change environmental change
accelerate immigration?accelerate immigration?
Prof. Andrew MillingtonProf. Andrew Millington
Dept. of Geography, TAMUDept. of Geography, [email protected]@geog.tamu.edu
22'Migration, Immigration & Changing Bor'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006ach, Dec 1st 2006
Would you know an environmental migrant Would you know an environmental migrant if you saw one?if you saw one?
33'Migration, Immigration & Changing Bor'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006ach, Dec 1st 2006
Environmental migrants and Environmental migrants and refugeesrefugees
175 million people live outside their country of birth 175 million people live outside their country of birth
10-11 million refugees from armed conflicts10-11 million refugees from armed conflicts
12-25 million refugees from natural disasters and famine12-25 million refugees from natural disasters and famine
Majority of environmental migrants/refugees have moved Majority of environmental migrants/refugees have moved since 1980since 1980
Cross-border migrants Cross-border migrants currently mainly social and economic opportunistscurrently mainly social and economic opportunists economic migrants fastest growing groupeconomic migrants fastest growing group
Internally displaced persons Internally displaced persons currently mainly environmental and political refugeescurrently mainly environmental and political refugees
44'Migration, Immigration & Changing Bor'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006ach, Dec 1st 2006
Refugees and environmental Refugees and environmental refugeesrefugees
Conflicts and Disasters
Traditional Refugees:
Persecution, Human rights violations,
Repression, Conflict
Environmental Refugees:
Natural disasters,Environmentaldegradation
EnvironmentalRefugees:
Anthropogenic disasters
55'Migration, Immigration & Changing Bor'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006ach, Dec 1st 2006
Refugees and environmental Refugees and environmental refugeesrefugees
Similarities between traditional and environmental Similarities between traditional and environmental refugeesrefugees
Forced nature of migrationForced nature of migration Need for material assistanceNeed for material assistance Need for permission to re-locateNeed for permission to re-locate
Debate raging at present:Debate raging at present: Should environmental migrants be treated, and have same status Should environmental migrants be treated, and have same status
as, traditional refugees as codified in International Law and as, traditional refugees as codified in International Law and guarded by the UN?guarded by the UN?
66'Migration, Immigration & Changing Bor'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006ach, Dec 1st 2006
Defining environmental refugeesDefining environmental refugees
Originally identified and broadly defined by UN researcher El-Originally identified and broadly defined by UN researcher El-Hinnawai (1985). Hinnawai (1985).
““People who migrate from their usual residence due to changes in People who migrate from their usual residence due to changes in their ambient non-human environment” their ambient non-human environment” Diane BatesDiane Bates (2002) (2002)
INVOLUNTARYINVOLUNTARY COMPELLEDCOMPELLED VOLUNTARYVOLUNTARY
ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL REFUGEEREFUGEE
ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL EMIGRANTEMIGRANT
MIGRANTMIGRANT
77'Migration, Immigration & Changing Bor'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006ach, Dec 1st 2006
(Global) Environmental change(Global) Environmental change
Global environmental Global environmental changechange Systemic changeSystemic change
Climate changeClimate change Cumulative changeCumulative change
Deforestation, desertificationDeforestation, desertification
Regional and local Regional and local environmental changeenvironmental change Water pollutionWater pollution
88'Migration, Immigration & Changing Bor'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006ach, Dec 1st 2006
Migrants from disastersMigrants from disasters
FOR MORE INFO... Link> Montserrat Juicy Geography
Rapid onsetRapid onset
Natural or technologicalNatural or technological
99'Migration, Immigration & Changing Bor'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006ach, Dec 1st 2006
Migrants from expropriationMigrants from expropriation
FOR MORE INFO... Link>International Rivers Network
Rapid onsetRapid onset
Development or EcocideDevelopment or Ecocide
1010'Migration, Immigration & Changing Bor'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006ach, Dec 1st 2006
Migrants from deteriorationMigrants from deterioration
FOR MORE INFO... Link> UNEP GRID
Slow onsetSlow onset
Pollution or DepletionPollution or Depletion
1111'Migration, Immigration & Changing Bor'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006ach, Dec 1st 2006
Internal DisplacementInternal Displacement
FOR MORE INFO... Link> Population Reference Bureau
AfghanistanAfghanistan 200, 000200, 000 June 2005June 2005
AngolaAngola 91 00091 000 Aug 2005Aug 2005
Indonesia Indonesia (Aceh)(Aceh)
533 000533 000 Dec 2004Dec 2004
Sri LankaSri Lanka 800 000800 000 June 2005June 2005
SudanSudan 6 000 000 6 000 000 Mar 2005Mar 2005
Internally displaced persons - IDPsInternally displaced persons - IDPs
1212'Migration, Immigration & Changing Bor'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006ach, Dec 1st 2006
Earthquakes and IDPsEarthquakes and IDPs
FOR MORE INFO... Link> Population Reference Bureau
NumberNumber Total Total deathsdeaths
Total Total affectedaffected
(mills)(mills)
AfricaAfrica 6464 329329 1.81.8
AmericasAmericas 229229 195 740195 740 24.824.8
AsiaAsia 447447 1 302 1891 302 189 60.660.6
EuropeEurope 215215 346 801346 801 10.710.7
OceaniaOceania 3838 439439 0.090.09Earthquake data 1901-2005 (Pop Ref Bureau)Earthquake data 1901-2005 (Pop Ref Bureau)
1313'Migration, Immigration & Changing Bor'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006ach, Dec 1st 2006
1414'Migration, Immigration & Changing Bor'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006ach, Dec 1st 2006
Environmentally-IDPs in the USAEnvironmentally-IDPs in the USA
Hurricane KatrinaHurricane Katrina ““In…14 days the hurricane scattered In…14 days the hurricane scattered
as many as 1 million evacuees as many as 1 million evacuees across the US…”across the US…”
““Many evacuees are putting down Many evacuees are putting down roots in new areas and saying they’ll roots in new areas and saying they’ll never return.” never return.”
“…“…the largest displacement of the largest displacement of Americans in 150 years…as if the Americans in 150 years…as if the entire Dust Bowl occurred in 14 entire Dust Bowl occurred in 14 days” days” Peter Grier, Christian Science Peter Grier, Christian Science Monitor, Sept 12 2005Monitor, Sept 12 2005
1515'Migration, Immigration & Changing Bor'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006ach, Dec 1st 2006
Environmentally-IDPs in the USAEnvironmentally-IDPs in the USA
1616'Migration, Immigration & Changing Bor'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006ach, Dec 1st 2006
International environmental International environmental refugees: Haitirefugees: Haiti
20% (1.3 million) of 20% (1.3 million) of population emigrated, population emigrated, 300 000 to USA300 000 to USAPolitical oppressionPolitical oppressionEnvironmental basisEnvironmental basis
High population growthHigh population growth 33% of land suitable for 33% of land suitable for
cultivated: 60% cultivatedcultivated: 60% cultivated 80% population chronically 80% population chronically
malnourishedmalnourished
Cost of Haitian migrants to Cost of Haitian migrants to Florida $250 millionFlorida $250 million17x USAID annual spent on 17x USAID annual spent on environmental safeguards environmental safeguards in entire Caribbeanin entire Caribbean
1717'Migration, Immigration & Changing Bor'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006ach, Dec 1st 2006
International environmental International environmental migration: historical contextsmigration: historical contexts
1818'Migration, Immigration & Changing Bor'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006ach, Dec 1st 2006
Migration gradientMigration gradient
Driven outright by Driven outright by environmental environmental pressurespressures
Voluntary Voluntary economic economic opportunistsopportunists
PovertyPoverty
1919'Migration, Immigration & Changing Bor'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006ach, Dec 1st 2006
Where are today’s 25 million Where are today’s 25 million environmental migrants?environmental migrants?
Africa – 16 millionAfrica – 16 million Sahel (5 mill), Horn and Sudan (4 mill)Sahel (5 mill), Horn and Sudan (4 mill)
China – 6 millionChina – 6 million
Mexico – 1 millionMexico – 1 million
135 million - threatened by severe desertification135 million - threatened by severe desertification
550 million – nations with chronic water shortages550 million – nations with chronic water shortages
2020'Migration, Immigration & Changing Bor'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006ach, Dec 1st 2006
……and tomorrow’s environmental and tomorrow’s environmental migrants?migrants?
37 million by 201037 million by 2010 Most in sub-Saharan AfricaMost in sub-Saharan Africa
Global changeGlobal change Drought – 50 millionDrought – 50 million Sea Level Rise – 162 million Sea Level Rise – 162 million
Bangladesh 26, Egypt 21, China 73, India 20, Small Island States 31Bangladesh 26, Egypt 21, China 73, India 20, Small Island States 31
180 million - threatened by severe desertification180 million - threatened by severe desertification
1 billion – nations with chronic water shortages1 billion – nations with chronic water shortages
FOR MORE INFO... Link>Tearfund ‘Feeling the Heat’
2121'Migration, Immigration & Changing Bor'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006ach, Dec 1st 2006
Tomorrow’s environmental migrants – Tomorrow’s environmental migrants – Tomorrow’s worldTomorrow’s world
Asian migrants to Europe Asian migrants to Europe and North America?and North America?
Caribbean and Latin Caribbean and Latin American migrants to American migrants to North America and North America and Europe?Europe?
Asian migrants to Asian migrants to Australia and NZ?Australia and NZ?
Internally displaced Internally displaced persons?persons?
2222'Migration, Immigration & Changing Bor'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006ach, Dec 1st 2006
Does (will) global environmental change Does (will) global environmental change accelerate immigration?accelerate immigration?
Does global environmental change accelerate Does global environmental change accelerate immigration?immigration?√ √ Majority of 25million environmental migrants since 1980 – 1995 Majority of 25million environmental migrants since 1980 – 1995
? Some not due to global environmental change but other hazards? Some not due to global environmental change but other hazards
X Most of IDPs, not immigrantsX Most of IDPs, not immigrants
Will global environmental change accelerate Will global environmental change accelerate immigration?immigration?√ √ Environmental migrants projected to double by 2010 Environmental migrants projected to double by 2010
? Some not due to global environmental change but other hazards? Some not due to global environmental change but other hazards
X Many still IDPs, but more will migrateX Many still IDPs, but more will migrate
2323'Migration, Immigration & Changing Bor'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006ach, Dec 1st 2006
Responsibilities and ResponsesResponsibilities and Responses
Analogies with the ‘polluter pays principle’Analogies with the ‘polluter pays principle’
Increase the legal scope of refugeeIncrease the legal scope of refugee
Better understanding of interplay of causes of Better understanding of interplay of causes of migrationmigration
Better targeting of aid moniesBetter targeting of aid monies
Recognition of the value of refugees in a Recognition of the value of refugees in a globalized economy globalized economy
2424'Migration, Immigration & Changing Bor'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006ach, Dec 1st 2006
Would you know an environmental migrant Would you know an environmental migrant if you saw one?if you saw one?