DOMESTIC DETERMINANTS OF SOVIET FOREIGN POLICY TOWARDS SOUTH ASIA AND THE MIDDLE EAST

Also by Hafeez Malik

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INTERNATIONAL SECURITY IN SOUTHWEST ASIA (editor) IQBAL: Poet-Philosopher of Pakistan (editor) MUSLIM NATIONALISM IN INDIA AND PAKISTAN POLITICAL PROFILE OF SIR SA YYID AHMAD KHAN: A Documentary

Record SIR SA YYID AHMAD KHAN AND MUSLIM MODERNIZATION IN

INDIA AND PAKISTAN SIR SA YYID'S HISTORY OF THE BUNORE REBELLION SOVIET-AMERICAN RELATIONS WITH PAKISTAN, IRAN AND

AFGHANISTAN

Domestic Determinants of Soviet Foreign Policy towards South Asia and the Middle East

Edited by Hafeez Malik Professor of Political Science Villanova University, Pennsylvania

Palgrave Macmillan

ISBN 978-1-349-11320-0 ISBN 978-1-349-11318-7 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-11318-7

© Hafeez Malik, 1990 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1990 All rights reserved. For information, write: Scholarly and Reference Division, St. Martin's Press Inc., 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010

First published in the United States of America in 1990

ISBN 978-0-312-04022-2

Library of Congress Cata1oging-in-Publication Data Domestic determinants of Soviet foreign policy towards South Asia and the Middle East/edited by Hafeez Malik. p. cm. Papers presented at a seminar held Oct. 6-8, 1988, at Villanova University. ISBN 978-0-312-04022-2 1. Middle East-Foreign Relations---Soviet Union-Congresses. 2. Soviet Union-Foreign relations-Middle East-Congresses. 3. Soviet Union-Foreign relations---South Asia-Congresses. 4. South Asia-Foreign relations-Soviet Union-Congresses. 5. Islam and politics---Soviet Union-Congresses. I. Malik, Hafeez. DS63.2.S65D66 1990 327. 47054--dc20 89-24078

CIP

In memory of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, a world-class diplomat, whose brilliant life was cut short so tragically

Contents

Preface ix

1 Domestic Determinants of Soviet Foreign Policy: An Introduction 1 Hafeez Malik

2 The Ethnic Factor in the Soviet Armed Forces and its Implications for Soviet National Security Policy 40 Joseph J. Collins

3 Soviet Central Asia: Ethnic Dilemmas and Strategies 54 Martha Brill Olcott

4 Soviet Perception of Militant Islam 69 Marie Broxup

5 Foreign Policy and Decision-Making Process in the Soviet Union 86 Melvin A. Goodman

6 Soviet Strategic Interests in South Asia: Domestic Determinants and Global Dimensions 111 Lawrence Ziring

7 Soviet Relations with India and Pakistan and the Afghan Problem 128 Vladimir Moskalenko, Railya Muqeemjanova, Vyacheskav Belokrenitsky and Yuri V. Gankovsky

8 Is There a Soviet-Indian Strategic Partnership? 141 Surjit Mansingh

9 Pakistan's Troubled Relations with the Soviet Union 156 Hafeez Malik

10 Soviet Relations with Afghanistan: The Current Dynamic 188 Anthony Arnold

11 Soviet Strategic Interests in the Middle East 213 Alvin Z. Rubinstein

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12 Soviet Foreign Policy and Revolutionary Iran: Continuity and Change 225 R. K. Ramazani

13 Soviet Policy for the Gulf Arab States 242 Joseph Wright Twinam

14 Soviet Policy in the Arab-Israeli Conflict: Navigating a Sea Change 260 Augustus Richard Norton

15 Soviet Policy towards Egypt and Syria since Camp David 280 Helena Cobban

16 Soviet Relations with South Asia and the Middle East: An Assessment 303 Kail C. Ellis

Notes on the Contributors 319

Appendix: List of Seminar Participants 322

Index 325

Preface

Most Soviet specialists in the West who learn Russian language and history develop a Eurocentric view of the Soviet Union. In dealing with the West, the Soviet Union also assiduously projects her European profile. It is, however, often overlooked that the Soviet Union is the fifth largest 'Muslim' state in the world, trailing behind Indonesia, Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. Those who tend to study the Soviet Union as a Eurasian state, and have a mature Islamic background or exposure to Islamic culture and its orientations, cannot fail to notice that Islam, despite Marxist­Leninists' repression of Muslims at certain times since 1917, is alive and well in the Soviet Union.

There is also some evidence available in the 1980s to suggest that Muslim nationalities in the Soviet Union have entered a new phase of self-assertion which is not only religious and cultural, but also has a degree of political significance. This new Muslim self-assertion, it is hypothesized, would call for the restructuring of their relations with Moscow, and the Muslim world. How Mikhail Gorbachev's policy of perestroika would deal with this phenomenon in Soviet Central Asia and the Caucasus remains to be seen!

The exact number of the Muslim population in the Soviet Union is problematical, since religious identity on a passport or on the identity card (with the exception of Jews) is not indicated. As a consequence it is very difficult to calculate exactly the total number of Muslims in the Soviet Union. In Soviet publications, six republics out of fifteen are identified as republics where the populations' traditional and ancestral religion is Islam. After the 1979 Soviet census, a Soviet source stated: 'more than 43 million people belonging to the indigenous nationalities live in the areas where the populations traditionally profess Islam'. If, however, small Muslim ethnic groups and tribes were to be included in this figure, then the total popu­lation would have added up to 45 million. Assuming normal growth rate of 1 to 1.5 million a year, the present Muslim population in the Soviet Union should be about 60 million. By 1990, when another census is scheduled in the USSR, the Muslim population will be 65 million. However, Murray Feshback, a well-known American demographer of the USSR, has esti­mated that by the year 2000 the Muslim population will be between 63 and 74 million. This uncertainty about the numbers is reflected in the works of most scholars, including those whose studies appear in this volume.

Islamic cultural life in the Soviet Union is three-dimensional: (1) 'Official Islam', sanctioned by the state, is organized in 'ecclesiastical' structures. Like the Russian Orthodox Church, it is made to collaborate with the Soviet authorities and it enables the USSR to deal with the Muslim world on an 'Islam to Islam' basis. The Soviet Union thus projects her Islamic

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profile diplomatically. Also, the 'official Islam' provides religious services of some value to the Muslim communities. (2) 'Dual face Muslims', the CPSU leaders and members, who wear the Communist mask at their jobs, replace it with an Islamic mask in the company of their family members, friends and the Muslim community at large. They serve Islam in the name of ethnic culture and history. (3) An average Central Asian and Caucasian Muslim keeps Islam alive in the society and transmits Islamic ethos to the future generations through the family. Some 'Muslims' are probably lost to Islam when they become what is called in the Soviet political culture the Soviet man.

Geographically, the Muslim republics in the Soviet Union are located as neighbors of Turkey, Iran, Afghanistan and Sinkiang (Xinjiang) province of China, where various Turkic nationalities follow Islam like their co­ethnics across the borders in the USSR.

This volume contains collective endeavors of nineteen scholars from the United States, Britain and the Soviet Union. From the Soviet Union, Professors Yuri V. Gankovsky and Vyacheslav Belokrenitsky of the USSR Institute of Oriental Studies in Moscow were scheduled to participate in the seminar. However, as the American Press revealed a remarkably unusual situation turned their travel to the United States into an impossible enterprise. They were unable to get seats in any scheduled aeroflot flight -because some of their Armenian countrymen's relatives in the United States had purchased tickets for them with dollars and had obtained ironclad reservations up to March 1989. Thanks to perestroika, travel restrictions for the Soviet citizens are not today what they used to be! Despite this disappointment, they very kindly fulfilled their scholarly obligation by sending us their chapter, which was co-authored by Vladimir Moskalenko and Railya Muqeemjanova.

Each scholar was informed in advance that an exploration of Soviet foreign policy should focus on the domestic determinants of (1) Islam; (2) Muslim nationalities in the Caucasus and Soviet Central Asia, their signifi­cance and role in the Soviet armed forces; (3) the decision-making process and its implications for Soviet foreign policy; (4) Soviet strategic interests in South Asia and the Middle East; and finally (5) Soviet involvement with the problems of strategically significant states in these two regions, which are contiguous to the transcontinental USSR.

The grand objective was to transcend the conventional wisdom, which maintains that the Soviet Union's foreign policy derives inspiration only from Marxism-Leninism, leading it to export 'revolution' in distant lands and to fish in troubled waters for strategic opportunities. All of these impulses might be relevant, but in regard to the contiguous regions of South Asia and the Middle East, the Soviet Union's decision-makers cannot be oblivious to the geographic as well as the demographic com-

Preface xi

ponents of their state's security; and determine their foreign policy in light of these factors.

In order to explore the significance of these domestic determinants of Soviet foreign policy, I arranged a seminar at Villanova University on 6-8 October 1988. Altogether fifty-five scholars from the arenas of diplomacy, academia and the military participated in the deliberations, where fifteen well-crafted papers on various dimensions of Soviet foreign policy were presented. A consensus developed that certain domestic determinants of Soviet foreign policy are most relevant, while scholars differed with each other on emphasis and the relative significance of each determinant.

Despite Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan on 15 February 1989, there was general agreement among the scholars that Soviet involvement in South Asia and the Middle East would continue to increase. This assess­ment was born out by Soviet Foreign Minister, Eduard A. Shevardnadze's visit to the Middle East in the third week of February 1989. He held courts in Damascus and Cairo, where he parlayed with the regional leaders, including the Israeli and Palestinian arch enemies. A benign face of the Soviet Union was put on display, not only for the settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict, but also equally generous, albeit veiled, prospects for help were held out for war-ravaged Afghanistan's rehabilitation, and Pakistan's industrial progress. Almost suddenly, Moscow is perceived to have recaptured the diplomatic initiative, while the Bush Administration still gropes for an appropriate policy. While Moscow's public image has begun to grow, the failure of the Soviet Union in Afghanistan has yet to reflect its consequences both within the Soviet Union and in the global state system. This moment presents the United States diplomacy with challenges and opportunities for an innovative as well as an imaginative foreign policy for the states in the Middle East and South Asia. This fleeting diplomatic moment will not last forever!

This collective and analytical endeavor of nineteen scholars has zeroed in on Soviet relations with eleven states directly, and with four countries indirectly, located in these two crucial and contiguous regions. This vast scope of analysis is beyond the capabilities of a single scholar. The global sweep of Soviet diplomacy called for a multi-layered analysis. Conse­quently, this study, highlighting some of the significant domestic determi­nants of Soviet foreign policy, is comprehensive and up-to-date, for which I owe a debt of gratitude to the contributors of various chapters, who very graciously accepted my objective directions in order to harmonize the thrusts of their analyses.

In order to join in the seminar discussions, from Pakistan came former Military Secretary to the late Prime Minister Z.A. Bhutto, Major-General (Rtd.) M. Imtiaz Ali and Lt. General (Rtd.) Kamal Matin-ud-Din, Direc­tor of the Institute of Strategic Studies at Islamabad. Prime Minister

xii Preface

Benazir Bhutto, who was still the leader of opposition when the seminar was organized in October 1988, sent her special emissary, Dr Naseer Sheikh, to participate in the deliberations. Pakistan's Ambassador to the United States, Jamsheed K.A. Marker, who had previously served in Moscow, gave an informal talk at the banquet, sharing his impressions of the Soviet Union with other scholars. Former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan, Agha Shahi, regaled the audience with his enigmatic diplo­matic encounters with the Soviet Ambassador in December 1979 when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan and the 'poor' envoy didn't know which Afghan leader had invited the Soviet troops: Hafiz Allah Amin, who got killed by Soviet/Afghan troops in December, or Noor Muhammad Taraqi, who was killed by Amin in September!

Ambassador Hermann Frederick Eilts (Director of International Studies Center at Boston University and former US Ambassador to Egypt and Saudi Arabia) presided over one of the sessions of the seminar and maintained the discussions on thorny Arab-Israeli conflict at a highly sophisticated level. Fr. Kail C. Ellis, Director of Villanova University's Institute for Contemporary Arab and Islamic Studies, presided over the session on South Asia and managed to keep the scholarly temperatures cool.

Villanova University has been not only an intellectual haven for me, but it has generously supported over the last fifteen years the Journal of South Asian and Middle Eastern Studies, the Pakistan-American Foundation and the American Institute of Pakistan Studies. When these organizations were created in 1973--4, they had received wholehearted encouragement and financial support from the late Prime Minister of Pakistan, Mr. Z.A. Bhutto. He had greatly appreciated Villanova University's cooperative and supportive role in promoting the educational and cultural activities of these organizations. Since I carried the burden of establishing them, lowe a debt of gratitude and a prayer to the late Z.A. Bhutto. May his soul rest in peace! I am equally indebted to Frs Edmund J. Dobbin, John M. Driscoll, current and former Presidents of Villanova University, Lawrence Gallen, Vice-President of Academic Affairs, and Kail C. Ellis, Dean of Arts and Sciences.

Among my friends, I must single out Nadia Barsoum, Magdy Barsoum, Delores Kephart and Horace L. Kephart, who generously provided financial assistance towards the expenses of the seminar. Some of my friends, both in the United States and abroad, have always been a source of encouragement and support: Sharif ul-Mujahid, Afak Haydar, Jack Schrems, (Akhuna) Khalil Ilyas, Riaz Ahmad, Salam Shahidi, Victor S. Krupitsch, Stanley Wolpert, Syed Abid Ali, Mohammad Ali Chaudhary, Abdullah Riar, and Dr Justice Javid Iqbal. I value their friendship. My Administrative Assistant, Susan K. Hausman, handled the logistics of the seminar with her usual efficiency and skills.

Preface xiii

Last, but not least, this seminar honored a friend and a distinguished scholar, Ralph Braibanti (James B. Duke Professor of Political Science at Duke University), who retired from his academic career in 1989.

Villanova University HAFEEZ MALIK