Domestic sources of Japanese foreign policy: 5th Annual Crawford PhD Conference: Big Data, Big Opportunity Wednesday, 19 November 2014

By Ben Ascione ben.ascione@anu.edu.au

1

Puzzle

• What are the key determinants of Japanese foreign policy?

– Exogenous determinants: responding to threats emanating from the external security environment

– Endogenous determinants: competition among domestic political actors

• Is right-wing nationalist influence on Japanese foreign policy increasing?

2

Background 1 Birth of the Yoshida Doctrine

• The US-Japan alliance – Japan to rely on the United States for its military

security

– US to control the pace and character of Japanese rearmament

• Light Rearmament of Japan – Article 9 Peace Clause of the Japanese Constitution

– Strict legal regime to ensure civilian control of the SDF

• Economic reconstruction – Customary defence spending limit of 1 per cent of

GDP 3

Background 2 Whither the Yoshida Doctrine?

• Post-Cold War challenges – Rise of China

– North Korea nuclear weapons and abduction issue

• Incremental loosening of SDF restrictions – UN Peacekeeping Operations Law (1992)

– SDF Dispatches to Indian Ocean (Afghanistan) and Iraq

– MSDF dispatch to the Gulf of Aden under the Anti-Piracy Measures Law (2009)

– Cabinet decision to reinterpret Article 9 (2014)

4

Literature Review • Realist argument: Foreign policy driven by external

threats (China and North Korea).

• Defensive Realist (Midford, 2011) selective use of force for ‘individual self-defence’ and ‘humanitarian & disaster relief’ missions only.

• Constructivism and cultures of antimilitarism (Berger, 1998; Katzenstein, 1996 & 2008) deep distrust of the military as an institution rooted in collective Japanese memories of 1930s militarism and the Pacific War

• Goldilocks consensus (Samuels, 2007). Finding the middle ground and getting Japan’s military posture ‘just right’. Not too far or close to the US and not too small or big SDF.

5

Goldilocks Consensus Battlelines

Embrace US Distance from US

More active military

Normal nationalists Neo-autonomists

Less active military Middle-power

internationalists Pacifists

6

Right-wing nationalism hindering the search for a stable middle ground

• Common objectives of right wing-nationalists

– Overcoming ‘irresponsible pacifism’

– Removing undue humiliation

– Overcoming the selfish egocentrism of postwar Japanese democracy

7

Who are the right-wing nationalists?

• Politicians

– Rightist factions of the Liberal Democratic Party

– Rightist opposition political parties such as the Japan Restoration Party

– Cross parliamentary study groups

• Japan Rebirth, Shinseiren, MPs for Worshipping at Yasukuni Shrine

• Political lobby groups

– Shintoists, ultra-nationalists, historical revisionists

8

Case Studies

• Post-Cold War SDF governance structures

• North Korea policy

• China policy (Senkaku/Diaoyu Island dispute)

9

SDF & Article 9 Opinion Polling

10

Japanese and Chinese Impressions of One Another

11 Data Source: The 10th Japan-China Public Opinion Poll by Genron NPO

Japanese Issues of Concern Regarding North Korea

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

2000/10 2002/10 2003/10 2004/10 2005/10 2006/10 2007/10 2008/10 2009/10 2010/10 2011/10

Abductions of Japanese Nuclear Problem

Missile Problem Defectors Problem

Political System North-South Problem

Japan-DPRK Diplomatic Normalization Negotiations Other

Nothing Particular Don't know

Data Source: Government of Japan, Cabinet Office, “Opinion Polls on Foreign Policy". Tabulated by author. 12