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Dominion - Legislative Servicesdls.virginia.gov/groups/SJR361/MEETINGS/111704/dominion.pdf ·...

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Page 1: Dominion - Legislative Servicesdls.virginia.gov/groups/SJR361/MEETINGS/111704/dominion.pdf · Dominion Generation ~ 26,000 MW of electric generation by year-end Dominion Energy ...
Page 2: Dominion - Legislative Servicesdls.virginia.gov/groups/SJR361/MEETINGS/111704/dominion.pdf · Dominion Generation ~ 26,000 MW of electric generation by year-end Dominion Energy ...

2

Dominion – A Fully Integrated Energy Company

26,000 MW of electric generation6,000 miles of transmission lines7,900 miles of gas pipeline4 million retail customers

E & P Energy Generation Delivery• Oil and natural

gas development• Natural gas pipeline• Electric transmission• Natural gas storage• LNG• Energy trading

• Coal• Natural gas• Nuclear• Oil• Hydro

• Franchise gas/electric customersin 5 states

• Unregulated retailcustomers in 8other states

Page 3: Dominion - Legislative Servicesdls.virginia.gov/groups/SJR361/MEETINGS/111704/dominion.pdf · Dominion Generation ~ 26,000 MW of electric generation by year-end Dominion Energy ...

3

Dominion E&P6.4 trillion cubic feet equivalentof proved gas and oil reserves

Approximately 1.3 billion cubicfeet equivalent of daily production

Dominion Generation~ 26,000 MW of electric generationby year-end

Dominion Energy7,900 miles of natural gas pipeline

6,000 miles of electric transmission

Nearly 1 trillion cubic feet of natural gas storage

Cove Point LNG facility

Dominion Delivery4 million franchise gas and electriccustomers in 5 states

Plus 1.4 million unregulated retailenergy customers in 8 states

Regional Focus, Integrated Assets

Page 4: Dominion - Legislative Servicesdls.virginia.gov/groups/SJR361/MEETINGS/111704/dominion.pdf · Dominion Generation ~ 26,000 MW of electric generation by year-end Dominion Energy ...

4

Dominion: Assisting Virginia’s Manufacturers

• Providing reliable and affordable energy

• Pro-active economic development team workswith the state and localities to attract and keepindustries

• Key account rep assigned to each large customer

• Supporting economic development rates

Page 5: Dominion - Legislative Servicesdls.virginia.gov/groups/SJR361/MEETINGS/111704/dominion.pdf · Dominion Generation ~ 26,000 MW of electric generation by year-end Dominion Energy ...

5

Dominion’s Balanced Generation Fuel Mix

Nuclear23%

Coal34%

Hydro19%

Natural Gas9%

Petroleum15%

Fuel diversity is important!

• Enhances reliability

• Improves energysecurity

• Provides hedgeagainst price volatility

Page 6: Dominion - Legislative Servicesdls.virginia.gov/groups/SJR361/MEETINGS/111704/dominion.pdf · Dominion Generation ~ 26,000 MW of electric generation by year-end Dominion Energy ...

6

Dominion: Dependable Generation Assets

• EPA settlement insures continued operation offossil units (costs shareholders $1.2 B)

• Operating licenses extended for all four nuclearunits in Virginia

• Recently re-powered units at Possum PointPower Station with natural gas

• Exploring possibility of new coal plant insouthwest Virginia

Committed to protecting and expanding our low-costand reliable generation assets

Page 7: Dominion - Legislative Servicesdls.virginia.gov/groups/SJR361/MEETINGS/111704/dominion.pdf · Dominion Generation ~ 26,000 MW of electric generation by year-end Dominion Energy ...

7

Energy and Manufacturing in Virginia

• Government, Finance and Services influence VirginiaGSP greater than the manufacturing sector- Government, Finance and Services: ~58% of VA GSP- Manufacturing: 12% of VA GSP

• 76% of manufacturing sector are energy intensive industries- ~10% of total GSP in Virginia

• Chemical and Primary Metal industry are very energyintensive. These industries represent ~2-2.5% of VA GSP- Chemical industry fell victim to high energy prices- Primary Metals is experiencing a significant recovery due

to growing international demand and lower U.S. dollar valuation

• The energy intensive industries least impacted by higherprices are paper and food processing

Page 8: Dominion - Legislative Servicesdls.virginia.gov/groups/SJR361/MEETINGS/111704/dominion.pdf · Dominion Generation ~ 26,000 MW of electric generation by year-end Dominion Energy ...

8

Virginia Gross State Product Components

Government18%

Government18%

Services22%

Manufacturing12%

Manufacturing12%

Finance18%

Retail Trade 9%

Transportation 9%

Transportation 9%Wholesale Trade 7%

Construction4%

Agriculture1%Mining

0.5%

Government, Finance and Service sectors represent about 58% of the totalVirginia GSP. Manufacturing sector only accounts for about 12%.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis,Regional Economic Accounts

Page 9: Dominion - Legislative Servicesdls.virginia.gov/groups/SJR361/MEETINGS/111704/dominion.pdf · Dominion Generation ~ 26,000 MW of electric generation by year-end Dominion Energy ...

9

Virginia GSP Sector Breakout (12% total GSP)

Manufacturing: Energy Intensive Manufacturing: Non-Energy Intensive

Real GSP (M of chained 1996 $) 5 Yrs. Avg. Real GSP (M of chained 1996 $) 5 Yrs. Avg.

(1997-2001)

3816299229182378200217491379119411841033763638108

Manufacturing Industry

Chemicals and allied productsElectronic and other electricFood and kindred productsIndustrial machinery/equipmentMotor vehicles/equipmentRubber & misc. plastic productsPaper & allied productsFabricated metal productsOther transportation equipmentTextile mill productsPrimary metal industriesStone, clay & glass productsPetroleum & coal productsEnergy Intensive Average

% Total

13%10%10%8%7%6%5%4%4%4%3%2%

0.4%76%

Manufacturing Industry

Tobacco productsPrinting & publishingLumber & wood productsFurniture & fixturesInstruments & related productsApparel & other textileMiscellaneous manufacturingLeather & leather productsNon-Energy Intensive Average

(1997-2001)

21121697141072457938326016

% Total

7%6%5%2%2%1%1%

0.1%24%

Energy Intensive Industries account for 10% of Virginia’s GSP

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis,Regional Economic Accounts

Page 10: Dominion - Legislative Servicesdls.virginia.gov/groups/SJR361/MEETINGS/111704/dominion.pdf · Dominion Generation ~ 26,000 MW of electric generation by year-end Dominion Energy ...

10

Industrial Consumption by Sector

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Electric Gas

% T

otal

Indu

stria

l Con

sum

ptio

n of

Ene

rgy

Chemicals Primary Metals Paper Textile MillsFood Petroleum and Coal Plastics and Rubber Nonmetallic MineralTransportation Equipment Fabricated Metal Wood Products Computer and Electronic

Source: MECS 1998

Page 11: Dominion - Legislative Servicesdls.virginia.gov/groups/SJR361/MEETINGS/111704/dominion.pdf · Dominion Generation ~ 26,000 MW of electric generation by year-end Dominion Energy ...

11

Energy Intensive Industries % of Virginia GSP

Industrial Sector % of GDP1995 2003

Virginia’s GSP is becoming less influenced by energy intensive industries

Source: Economy.com

Chemicals

Food

Computer & Electronics

Paper

Textile

Primary Metals

Petroleum & Coal

% Total GSP

1.6%

1.8%

1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

5.7%

1.1%

1%

1.2%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

4.2%

Page 12: Dominion - Legislative Servicesdls.virginia.gov/groups/SJR361/MEETINGS/111704/dominion.pdf · Dominion Generation ~ 26,000 MW of electric generation by year-end Dominion Energy ...

12

Dominion Natural Gas Production

Reserves (Bcfe) as of 6/30/2004 6,371Daily Production (Mmcfe/day) 1,252Productive wells 26,299

CanadaCanada

Rocky MountainRocky Mountain

PermianPermian

Mid-ContinentMid-Continent

Gulf CoastGulf Coast

Gulf of MexicoGulf of Mexico

Appalachian Basin/Michigan

Appalachian Basin/Michigan

Page 13: Dominion - Legislative Servicesdls.virginia.gov/groups/SJR361/MEETINGS/111704/dominion.pdf · Dominion Generation ~ 26,000 MW of electric generation by year-end Dominion Energy ...

13

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

Jan-99

Apr-99

Jul-99

Oct-99

Jan-00

Apr-00

Jul-00

Oct-00

Jan-01

Apr-01

Jul-01

Oct-01

Jan-02

Apr-02

Jul-02

Oct-02

Jan-03

Apr-03

Jul-03

Oct-03

Jan-04

Apr-04

Jul-04

Oct-04

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

$9

$10

Current Rigs Current Rigs –– 1,0581,058

Rig

Co

un

t

Source: Baker Hughes

Gas P

rice

Avg 12 Month StripAvg 12 Month Strip

Avg. MonthlyAvg. MonthlyGas Rig CountGas Rig Count

Week

Rigs have responded to price…

Page 14: Dominion - Legislative Servicesdls.virginia.gov/groups/SJR361/MEETINGS/111704/dominion.pdf · Dominion Generation ~ 26,000 MW of electric generation by year-end Dominion Energy ...

14

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

Jan

-99

Apr

-99

Jul-

99

Oct

-99

Jan

-00

Apr

-00

Jul-

00

Oct

-00

Jan

-01

Apr

-01

Jul-

01

Oct

-01

Jan

-02

Apr

-02

Jul-

02

Oct

-02

Jan

-03

Apr

-03

Jul-

03

Oct

-03

Jan

-04

Apr

-04

July

-04

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

Avg. MonthlyGas Rig Count

Total US Dry Production Current Rigs – 1,058

Nu

mb

er s

of

Gas

Rig

s

Source: Lippman Consulting, Inc., Baker Hughes

Gas Production vs. Drilling Activity (Lower 48)

Record activity levels are required to offset production decline

To

tal P

r od

uct

ion

(B

cf/

d)

Production has dropped

Page 15: Dominion - Legislative Servicesdls.virginia.gov/groups/SJR361/MEETINGS/111704/dominion.pdf · Dominion Generation ~ 26,000 MW of electric generation by year-end Dominion Energy ...

15

U.S. Natural Gas Demand Growth - 2010

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Tcf

Source: Energy Information Administration

Page 16: Dominion - Legislative Servicesdls.virginia.gov/groups/SJR361/MEETINGS/111704/dominion.pdf · Dominion Generation ~ 26,000 MW of electric generation by year-end Dominion Energy ...

16

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Tcf

Source: BPMA internal projections

Electric Demand8.5% Growth

Industrial Demand2% Growth

Residential & Commercial~1% Growth

U.S. Demand for Natural Gas (2004-2010)

Page 17: Dominion - Legislative Servicesdls.virginia.gov/groups/SJR361/MEETINGS/111704/dominion.pdf · Dominion Generation ~ 26,000 MW of electric generation by year-end Dominion Energy ...

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The Natural Gas Situation

With demand increasingand the North Americansupply base strugglingto stay flat, maintainingaccess to domestic supplysources and adding LNGis the key

17

Page 18: Dominion - Legislative Servicesdls.virginia.gov/groups/SJR361/MEETINGS/111704/dominion.pdf · Dominion Generation ~ 26,000 MW of electric generation by year-end Dominion Energy ...

18

Existing

Proposed

Source: EIA, Poten, Internal Estimates

Cove Point

• Of 40+ new LNG projects targeting North America, 8 are canceled

LNG Import Terminals

Page 19: Dominion - Legislative Servicesdls.virginia.gov/groups/SJR361/MEETINGS/111704/dominion.pdf · Dominion Generation ~ 26,000 MW of electric generation by year-end Dominion Energy ...

19

Dominion Cove Point80 ships received August ‘03 – September 15, 2004

215 MMDt throughput since reactivation

Record peak hourly sendout- 958,000 Dt/day - 2/5/04

80 ships received August ‘03 – September 15, 2004

215 MMDt throughput since reactivation

Record peak hourly sendout- 958,000 Dt/day - 2/5/04

Page 20: Dominion - Legislative Servicesdls.virginia.gov/groups/SJR361/MEETINGS/111704/dominion.pdf · Dominion Generation ~ 26,000 MW of electric generation by year-end Dominion Energy ...

20

Dominion Cove Point – Future Expansion

Upon Completion

7 tanks @ 14.6 Bcf Total Storage

1.8 Bcf/d Peak Sendout

Upon Completion

7 tanks @ 14.6 Bcf Total Storage

1.8 Bcf/d Peak Sendout

Page 21: Dominion - Legislative Servicesdls.virginia.gov/groups/SJR361/MEETINGS/111704/dominion.pdf · Dominion Generation ~ 26,000 MW of electric generation by year-end Dominion Energy ...

21

Benefits of Cove Point Expansion

• Provides a safe and secure source of neededenergy for the mid-Atlantic market

• Supplements available natural gas resources

• Increases supply options for electric generationand gas customers

• Helps reduce price spikes due to supply problems

Page 22: Dominion - Legislative Servicesdls.virginia.gov/groups/SJR361/MEETINGS/111704/dominion.pdf · Dominion Generation ~ 26,000 MW of electric generation by year-end Dominion Energy ...

22

Restructuring Benefits Manufacturers

• Caps rates at 1993 levels to mid-2007- CPI has risen 25% since 1993

• Deregulates generation only; transmission anddistribution remain regulated

The 1999 Restructuring Act:

SB 651• Extends capped rates to 2011

- Continued savings for customers (total $1.8 B)

• Freezes Dominion’s fuel cost adjustment- Shields customers from rising fuel costs

• Encourages coal plant(s) in southwest Virginia

Page 23: Dominion - Legislative Servicesdls.virginia.gov/groups/SJR361/MEETINGS/111704/dominion.pdf · Dominion Generation ~ 26,000 MW of electric generation by year-end Dominion Energy ...

23

Supply Delivery CustomersSupply Delivery Customers

State Regulation State & Federal Regulation State RegulationState Regulation State & Federal Regulation State Regulation

Past

Present

Competition State & Federal Regulation State RegulationCompetition State & Federal Regulation State Regulation

Competitive Supply Delivery CustomersCompetitive Supply Delivery Customers

Changes to Virginia’s Electric Business Structure

Page 24: Dominion - Legislative Servicesdls.virginia.gov/groups/SJR361/MEETINGS/111704/dominion.pdf · Dominion Generation ~ 26,000 MW of electric generation by year-end Dominion Energy ...

24

Restructuring Benefits Manufacturers

• Caps rates at 1993 levels to mid-2007- CPI has risen 25% since 1993

• Deregulates generation only; transmission anddistribution remain regulated

The 1999 Restructuring Act:

SB 651• Extends capped rates to 2011

- Continued savings for customers (total $1.8 B)

• Freezes Dominion’s fuel cost adjustment- Shields customers from rising fuel costs

• Encourages coal plant(s) in southwest Virginia

Page 25: Dominion - Legislative Servicesdls.virginia.gov/groups/SJR361/MEETINGS/111704/dominion.pdf · Dominion Generation ~ 26,000 MW of electric generation by year-end Dominion Energy ...

25

Rate increases and request in selected states

Source: Regulatory Research Associates, Inc.Press Reports, Corporate News Releases

Cases Approved

Cases Pending

Cases Approvedand Pending

13.5%

17%17%

6.3%7.2%7.2%

9.6% 15.6%15.6%

6.8%6.8%

11.8%

16.3%

14.8% 7.5%7.5%

5.8%

18.2%

3.1%3.1%

8.4%8.4%

5.3%5.3%3.6%

7%9%9%

5.5%5.5%

13.1%

5%1.2%1.2%

Cost-of-Service Rate Increases – 2003-04

Page 26: Dominion - Legislative Servicesdls.virginia.gov/groups/SJR361/MEETINGS/111704/dominion.pdf · Dominion Generation ~ 26,000 MW of electric generation by year-end Dominion Energy ...

26

Virginia’s Rates Are Lower

Year 2003Industrial FirmPower Rates

Cents per kWh

Source: Rates: Edison Electric InstituteWeighting: Energy Information Administration

Demand of 50,000 KW68% load factor

26

Page 27: Dominion - Legislative Servicesdls.virginia.gov/groups/SJR361/MEETINGS/111704/dominion.pdf · Dominion Generation ~ 26,000 MW of electric generation by year-end Dominion Energy ...

27

Virginia Benefits from Restructuring

Virginia’s electric ratesare at a competitiveadvantage now. Virginia’s wide rangeof fuels for electricgeneration, cappedrates, and frozen fuelfactor will help keep itthat way.

27

Page 28: Dominion - Legislative Servicesdls.virginia.gov/groups/SJR361/MEETINGS/111704/dominion.pdf · Dominion Generation ~ 26,000 MW of electric generation by year-end Dominion Energy ...

28

Keys to Future Competitiveness

• Natural gas, LNG expansion

• Clean-coal fired generation

• Extension of nuclear licenses

• Capped rates through 2010

• Fuel factor frozen

Page 29: Dominion - Legislative Servicesdls.virginia.gov/groups/SJR361/MEETINGS/111704/dominion.pdf · Dominion Generation ~ 26,000 MW of electric generation by year-end Dominion Energy ...

29


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