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Dorchester/Mattapan Catholic Schools Review
June 2007
This report is solely for the use of client personnel. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without prior written approval from McKinsey & Company.
*This is an edited version of the presentation in order to accommodate its availability for the website.
2
TODAY’S DISCUSSION TOPICS
• Dorchester/Mattapan overview
• Dorchester/Mattapan Catholic Schools - Areas of opportunity– Overall– School configuration– Physical school structures– Offerings and value proposition
• Survey Summaries– Parents– Teachers– Principals
• Process Timeline
3
DORCHESTER/MATTAPAN POPULATION IS YOUNGER THAN THE OVERALL BOSTON POPULATION
*Boston MSA includes Boston, Cambridge, Quincy, Newton, and Framingham
Source:ESRI; team analysis
Population by age, 2006Percent, thousands of people
12 17
2429
3227
32 26
131
Dorchester
4,500
Boston MSA*
<20
20-40
40-60
60+
100% =
Medianage
31 37
• Overall, Dorchester/Mattapan has a much younger population vs. the entire Boston metropolitan area (32% of the population in Dorchester/Mattapan vs. 26% of people in Boston)
• Its overall population expected to stay relatively flat over the next 5 years at 131K people
• However, forecasts predict fewer people under 20 years of age by 2011
School aged population
4
DORCHESTER/MATTAPAN HAS ~40K PEOPLE UNDER THE AGE OF 20
11,35210,83110,659
2,9292,197
Pre-K Grade5-8
Grade 9-12
Grade1-4
Kindergarten
Dorchester/Mattapan “under 20” population by corresponding grade level, 2006Number of people
Note:Not all children actually enrolled in a Dorchester school
Source:Dorchester Catholic School Review, 04/23/07; team analysis
Catholic school penetrationPercent
1.0 11.2 7.2 5.5 n/a
5
AT RISK OF LOSING CLOSE TO 2,000 PREK-9th GRADERS WITHIN 5 YEARS
Source: ESRI; team analysis
Dorchester/Mattapan “under 20” population by age, 2006Number of people
• Lost ~3,000 Pre-K-9th grade students from 2000 to 2006, a 8% drop (vs. ~18% drop for Dorchester/Mattapan Catholic schools over the same period)
• Expected to lose ~2,000 Pre-K-9th grade students by 2011 (from 30.7K students to 28.8K students), a 6% drop
Pre-high-school population
10.6 11.7 10.7
11.9 11.68.8
11.9 9.3
9.3
10.110.2
10.6
44.4
2000
42.8
2006
39.3
2011E
<5
5-9
10-14
15-19
-1%-2%
6
DORCHESTER/MATTAPAN HOUSEHOLDS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER INCOMES THAN THE BOSTON HOUSEHOLDS
10
1828
31
57
35
87
22
131
Dorchester
4,500
Boston MSA*
<$50
$50-100
$100-150
$150-200
>$200
100% =
Population by income level, 2006Percent, thousands of people
Projected growth in income, 2006-11Percent
3.1 4.2
*Boston MSA includes Boston, Cambridge, Quincy, Newton, and Framingham
Source:ESRI; team analysis
7
DORCHESTER/MATTAPAN IS A COMPETITIVE SCHOOL SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE SCHOOL CHOICES FOR PARENTS
Catholic
Charter
Public
• 33 elementary schools in the Dorchester/Mattapan region– 8 Catholic schools– 3 charter schools– 22 public schools
• PreK/extended day care also offered at sites outside Catholic, charter, and public schools
• METCO also an option for students (allowing inner city students to attend suburban schools)
• Public and charter schools do not charge tuition
• Catholic schools charge varying tuition rates based on school, in-Parish vs. out-of-Parish student, students’ financial need
Source: Dorchester/Mattapan Catholic School Review, 04/23/07; team analysis
8
TODAY’S DISCUSSION TOPICS
• Dorchester/Mattapan overview
• Dorchester/Mattapan Catholic Schools - Areas of opportunity– Overall– School configuration– Physical school structures– Offerings and value proposition• Survey Summaries
• Parents• Teachers• Principals• Process Timeline
9
THERE ARE 8 CATHOLIC SCHOOLS IN THE DORCHESTER/MATTAPAN REGION
Source:School data
• Blessed Mother Teresa • St. Ann
• St. Peter • St. Brendan
• St. Mark • St. Gregory
• St. Kevin • St. Angela Merici
10
CATHOLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT NUMBERS
Dorchester/Mattapan Catholic Schools enrollment by grade, 2006Percent, number of students
76
110 111 105 107 9877
97
59 71
68
75 85 87 9385
74
83
7265
220
22
Pre-K
144
Grade 3
200
Grade 2
183
Grade 4
151
Grade 5
180
Grade 6
131
Grade 7
192
Grade 8Grade 1
196
K2
185
K1
136
Source:Dorchester/Mattapan Catholic School Review, 04/23/07; Enrollment model; team analysis
11
DORCHESTER/MATTAPAN CATHOLIC SCHOOLS ARE SPREAD EVENLY THROUGHOUT THE REGION IN AREAS OF DIFFERING POPULATION DENSITY
Source:ESRI Business Analyst; team analysis
Population density by block groups, 2006 Total population/square mile
2,793-10,260
10,261 – 17,540
17,541 – 23,760
23,761 – 30,080
30,081 – 40,660
BL Mother TeresaSt. Kevin
St. Ann
St. Brendan
St. Gregory
St. Mark
St. Peter
St. Angela
12
THE POPULATION DENSITY PROFILE OF DORCHESTER/MATTAPAN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE THROUGH 2011
Population density by block groups, 2011 Total population/square mile
Source:ESRI Business Analyst; team analysis
BL Mother TeresaSt. Kevin
St. Ann
St. Brendan
St. Gregory
St. Mark
St. Peter
St. Angela
2,793 - 10,227
10,228 – 17,523
17,524 – 23,948
23,949– 30,886
30,887 – 41,049
13
DORCHESTER/MATTAPAN CATHOLIC SCHOOLS CAN BE ASSESSED ALONG 3 KEY FACTORS
Key findings
• Dorchester/Mattapan Catholic schools are in relatively poor condition• Dorchester/Mattapan Catholic schools are primarily old buildings from 1900-1950• No school is up to date• Schools may be well maintained but have old boilers, old windows and fixtures,
etc.
2 Physical school structures
• Dorchester/Mattapan Catholic schools enrollment has been declining since 2000 (e.g., -2% annually) and is expected to lose ~10% of its current student population by 2011
• Approximately two-thirds of Dorchester/Mattapan Catholic schools are running a deficit and are operating significantly below original capacity
• Dorchester/Mattapan Catholic schools serve a diverse community with each school typically serving 1 key ethnic group
1 School configuration
• Dorchester/Mattapan Catholic schools need to offer a unified value proposition to parents, Parishioners, teachers, and the community at large
• Given varying tuition and size of buildings and maintenance, there is confusion among parents about the quality of education from school to school
• The quality of education in the schools is not necessarily aligned to tuition.• There is a need for consistency for quality of education in each school
3 Offerings and value proposition
14
THE CATHOLIC SCHOOL STUDENT POPULATION IS SHRINKING AND EXPECTED TO DROP ~10-20% BY 2011
Dorchester/Mattapan Catholic schools enrollment, 2003-2011ENumber of students
1,5601,6841,7201,689
1,785
1,987
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2011E
-5%
-2%
Projection
• The Dorchester/Mattapan Catholic school enrollment has declined at ~2% annually since 2000
• This decline has increased in recent years (e.g., -5% annually from 2003 to 2006)
• Based on recent trajectories, the Catholic school student population will shrink by ~10% over the next 5 years
• Much of the student loss has come from students leaving for exam schools after 6th grade
Note:Based on 2000-2006 growth rates for each school
Source:ABSCO model; team analysis
1
15
DORCHESTER/MATTAPAN CATHOLIC SCHOOLS ALSO SERVE AREAS OF DIFFERING INCOME LEVELS
Median household income by block groups, 2006
Source:ESRI Business Analyst; team analysis
$15,969 – 28,638
$28,639 – 37,888
$37,889 – 46,963
$46,964 – 57,368
$57,369 – 80,104
BL Mother TeresaSt. Kevin
St. Ann
St. Brendan
St. Gregory
St. Mark
St. Peter
St. Angela
1
16
Physical School Structures
2
17
APPROXIMATELY 3/4 OF DORCHESTER/MATTAPAN CATHOLIC SCHOOLS NEED PHYSICAL REPAIR
Source: Dorchester/Mattapan School Review, 04/23/2007; Team analysis
School ConditionCost to updateDollars
• Blessed Mother Teresa of Calcutta
Average 6,808,995
• St. Peter Elementary Poor 7,019,416
• St. Mark Elementary Average 7,462,764
• St. Kevin Elementary Poor 9,020,411
• St. Ann Elementary Poor 7,123,203
• St. Brendan Elementary Good 5,339,917
• St. Gregory Elementary Good 7,710,276
• St. Angela Elementary Average 7,391,673
• Only 2 of 8 schools are considered to be in good condition:– St. Gregory– St. Brendan
• 3 of the 8 schools are considered to be in average condition:
• St. Mark• BMT• St. Angela
• 3 of the 8 schools are considered to be in poor condition:
• St. Peter• St. Kevin• St. Ann
2
TOTAL: 57,876,655
18
Offerings and Value Proposition
3
19
Average student tuition, 2006Dollars
3,5003,275
2,500
3,500
Average3,194
St. MarkSt. KevinSt. PeterBlessed Mother Teresa
TUITION RATES VARY SIGNIFICANTLY BY SCHOOL
2,750
3,700
2,850
3,425
St. Angela
Average3,181
St. Brendan
St. Gregory
St. Ann
Source: Catholic Schools Foundation; team analysis
Average student tuition, 2006Dollars
3
20
FURTHERMORE, MANY (POTENTIAL) CATHOLIC SCHOOL STUDENTS CANNOT AFFORD THE CURRENT TUITION RATES . . .
Percent of students needing financial aid
28
69
3438
61
47
30
88
St AnnSt Mark St Brendan
Average 49%
St Peter St GregorySt KevinSt AngelaBMT
On average, 49% of students cannot afford tuition
Source: Catholic Schools Foundation; team analysis
3
21
Average Class Size Per School3
Average class size per school, 2006Students equivalents
17.217.918.419.719.7
20.921.621.8
St. Angela
St. Kevin St. AnnSt. Mark St. PeterBlessed Mother Teresa
St. Gregory
St. Brendan
Source: Enrollment model; School data; team analysis
Average:~20 students per class
Final Report: Dorchester/Mattapan Elementary Catholic School Surveys
Parents, Teachers, PrincipalsJune 1, 2007
STRATEGIC PLANNING COMMITTEE2010 INITIATIVE
23
Overview of findings – Parents & Teachers
• St. Angela
• St. Ann
• Blessed Mother Teresa
• St. Brendan
• St. Gregory
• St. Kevin
• St. Mark
• St. Peter
TABLE OF CONTENTS
24
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS – PARENTS
•On average, primary reasons parents selected their school, in order:– Quality education– Safety– Location
•On average, the primary strengths parents identify in their schools, in order:– Education– Faith formation– Teachers
•On average, primary weaknesses parents identify, in order:– Facilities– Specials– Cost
25
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS – PARENTS
• Most parents are very happy with the quality of the education their children are receiving.
• Community:– Many parents are sending their children to a school they
themselves went to, or their parents or other family members attended.
– There is a warm community feel to many of the schools.– Safety and location near home are as important to parents as is the
Catholic faith formation.– Discipline is also important.
• Facility and Supplies:– Most buildings lack basic facilities needed for lower schools, such
as gym and playground space, lunch rooms, art rooms, etc.– Equipment and supplies are often out of date, broken or
unavailable, including text books and computers.
26
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS – PARENTS
• Staff and Class Size:– Most schools lack support staff (i.e. full time nurse, counselor,
substitute teachers, full time custodian, etc.)– Many schools don’t have enough time and staff to provide learning
support to children who are having trouble keeping up. – Class sizes in many schools are a challenge: Class size in the
lower grades is often too large, while the class size in middle schools are too small.
• Curriculum & Specials: – Given the tuition, parents would like to see more specials offered,
and/or have them offered more frequently, including gym, art and music.
– Many parents want foreign languages offered to the curriculum.
27
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS – PARENTS
• Families:– Many parents struggle with their current tuition.– The diversity that the schools in Dorchester and Mattapan offer is
generally seen as an asset, giving kids valuable exposures to different cultures.
– There are great discrepancies, across schools, in how involved parents are.
28
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS – TEACHERS
• On average, teachers feel the top strengths of their schools to be to following:
– The teachers themselves– Faith formation– The administration
• For teachers across the schools, their view of weaknesses and challenges varies quite significantly. Most identify the facility and lack of specials as two areas of weakness.
29
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS: PRINCIPALS
•On average the Principals think that the strengths of the schools are:– The teachers– Faith formation– Academics– Administration
• The principals view of the weaknesses of the schools varied. Most identified curriculum development in math and sciences, loss of children to exam and charter schools, need for more specials, and teacher development as areas for improvement.