Douglas Burn, Martin Robards, Jerry Galt, Aaron Poe, Renn Hanson, Ben Matheson

OnaBadDay

2

UnimakPass

BuldirIsland

TheNorthernGreatCircleRoute

3

TheSelendangAyu

4

TheSelendangAyu

5

VesselTraffic–HeatMap

LargeVesselTraffic2011-2012

11

•  Moretrafficin2012(UnimakPass:4,851vs.4,014)•  BeringSeatrafficmostlywestbound(2/3)•  Southernroutetrafficmostlyeastbound(2/3)

AllDataandResultsHaveBeenReviewedbyBorderCollie

12

ResourcesatRisk

13

StellersealionadultcountdatafromhKp://www.afsc.noaa.gov/nmml/alaska/sslhome/databases/

StellerSeaLionHauloutsandRookerieswithExisLngRoutes

14

StellersealionadultcountdatafromhKp://www.afsc.noaa.gov/nmml/alaska/sslhome/databases/

StellerSeaLionHauloutsandRookerieswithExisLngRoutes

7,144

15

InternaLonalMariLmeOrganizaLon,AreastobeAvoided(ATBAs)

16

StellersealionadultcountdatafromhKp://www.afsc.noaa.gov/nmml/alaska/sslhome/databases/

StellerSeaLionHauloutsandRookerieswithSuggestedRoutes

17

~21%ReducRonInExposure/RisktoStellerSeaLions

StellersealionadultcountdatafromhKp://www.afsc.noaa.gov/nmml/alaska/sslhome/databases/

StellerSeaLionHauloutsandRookerieswithSuggestedRoutes

7,144

3,380

18

NorthernseaoKerdatafromDoroffetal.(2003)

NorthernSeaOSerSighLngs

~22%ReducRonInExposure/Risk

toNorthernSeaOKers

NorthernseaoKerdatafromDoroffetal.(2003)

NorthernSeaOSerswithSuggestedRoutes

1,332

421

AretheATBAsEffecLve?

22

November2015December2015January2016February2016March2016April2016

Source:hKp://havbase.no/havbase_arkRs

VesselDriVSimulaLon

23

SimulaLonModelParameters

4MajorRoutes

21ReleaseSites

4Seasons

250RandomStarts

40Pseudo-ships

3.36MDri`Trajectories

=

24

•  GNOMEModel–GeneralNOAAOperaRonalEnvironment•  GenWest–configuraRonforcontainership•  Inputwindandcurrentdatafromworkdoneonthedispersal

ofJapantsunamimarinedebris~3yearRmeseries

TheGNOMEModel–HowitWorks

TimeStep:0TimeStep:1TimeStep:2

25

VesselDriVAnimaLon–Route3Site10,WinterSimulaLon1

26

VesselDriVAnimaLon–Route3Site10,WinterSimulaLon1

27

VesselDriVAnimaLon–Route3Site10,WinterEnsemble

28

VesselDriVAnimaLon–Route3Site10,WinterEnsemble

29

BeachingProbabilityOverTime–Route3

30

BeachingProbabilityOverTime–Route4

31

ProposedProject–RiskContours

32

Let’sAvoidAnotherBadDay

33

QuesLons?

34