NIMET’S AGRO-CLIMATE INFORMATION SERVICES: A VITAL TOOL FOR MANAGING FOOD

CRISIS IN NIGERIA

Dr. Anthony C. Anuforom DG/CEO (NIMET)

(A Paper presented at the 2009 World Food Day Symposium: ‘‘ Achieving Food Security in Times of Crisis’’,

Km.28 Abuja-Keffi, Tudun Wada, Nasarawa State, 15th October 2009.)

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) …… providing weather, climate and water …… providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable information for sustainable development and safety of development and safety of

life and propertylife and property

OUTLINE OF PRESENTATIONOUTLINE OF PRESENTATION

1. INTRODUCTION

2. KEY METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS AND THEIR RELEVANCE TO AGRICULTURE & FOOD PRODUCTION

3. OBSERVED VARIABILITIES AND ASSOCIATED HAZARDS

4. NIMET’S AGRO-CLIMATE INFORMATION SERVICES/PRODUCTS FOR MANAGING THE HAZARDS/FOOD CRISIS

5. AREAS OF PARTNERSHIP/COLLABORATION FOR IMPROVED AGRO-CLIMATE SERVICES

6. CONCLUSION.

To provide weather, climate and water information for sustainable development and safety of life and property.

NIMET’s VisionNIMET’s Vision

The MissionThe MissionThe overall mission of NIMET is to observe Nigerian weatherand climate and provide meteorological, hydrological andoceanographic services in support of national needs andinternational obligations. These services are applied to issues of:Human and Environmental sustainabilityPolicy developmentSafe operations of air, land and marine transportationAgricultural production, tourism, health, defense,

education, sports, construction, etc.Monitoring, management and mitigation of natural disastersCorporative interaction within the framework of global best

practices in the science of meteorology

1.0 INTRODUCTION. Climate and Agricultural resource are very closely related and as such

any crisis situation in the agric sector notably a ‘food crisis’ stands a

great risk of becoming escalated by climate vagaries and extreme

weather events like heat wave, drought and flood.

Food crisis is therefore gradually attaining a catastrophic dimension as

a result of climate change, especially in developing regions like the sub-

Saharan Africa where recovery from such crisis can take several years

given the low coping capacity and the fast growing population (frm

about 770million in 2005 to a projected value of 2billion in 2050).

IPCC’s projections show that a 2.5 deg Cel. rise in average temperature

would result in decrease net return to cropland by 16 billion USD each

year in the region, while a predicted temperature rise of 1.3°C by 2025

would render tens of millions more people hungry due to falling

agricultural yields.

There are also several reported cases of rise in food prices due to

increasing frequency/intensity of drought in the region, which has

resulted in up to 75% crop loss particularly over East and North Africa.

1.0 INTRODUCTION cont. In Nigeria, the impact of the drought episodes of 1968 and

1973/74 which reduced agric yields to between 12% and 14% of

the annual average and led to the death of about 300,000 animals

representing 13% of the livestock population, was still being felt

several years after.

The recent episodes of 2007 and 2008 food crises further pushed

about 100million people in the sub-Saharan region to poverty,

greatly reversing the little gain of developmental programmes in

the region

Prior knowledge of the trend and changes in the respective

meteorological/climate parameters that affect the various

agricultural operations therefore remains an invaluable tool

either as a guide for effective harnessing of climate as resource

for improved/max agric yields or as a warning against weather-

related hazards which usually signal weather-induced food

crisis.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives of this paper therefore are:

(a) State the key meteorological parameters and

their relevance to agriculture and food production,

(b) Note their variability/changes and associated

hazards that contribute to food crisis and

(c) Highlight the various NIMET’s Agro-climate

information services/products for managing such

hazards and crisis.

The paper also examines possible areas of

collaboration among stakeholders to ensure more

efficient application of the agro-climate information

towards achieving the much desired food security in Nigeria,

especially in time of crisis

2. Notable Meteorological Parameters and Their Relevance to Agriculture & Food ProductionS/N MET

PARAMETERSRELEVANCE TO AGRICULTURE & FOOD PRODUCTION

1 Rainfall •The main source of moisture supply to crops,• Its onset & cessation dates help to determine the growing season and water requirement of the crop for efficient crop performance.•A good distribution enhances crop growth, devel & yield.

2 Temperatures • Biological and biochemical processes which determine crop growth and development are temperature driven, •Both air and soil temperatures therefore affect all the growth and developmental processes of crops.•Temperature also helps to determine the choice of cultivars given the close link between temperature and photosynthesis.

2. Notable Meteorological Parameters and Their Relevance to Agriculture & Food Prod Conts.S/N MET PARAMETERS RELEVANCE TO AGRICULTURE & FOOD PRODUCTION

3 Potential Evapotranspiration (PET)

•Measures the rate of water loss (transpiration & evaporation) from short green crops/vegetation. •Shows water availability for crop and therefore gives reliable Hydrologic Growing/potential growing season.•Also aids planning with respect to irrigation in the event of water shortage.

4 Solar Radiation •Solar radiation provides the light required for photosynthesis and thermal conditions for normal physiological functions of plants •It also provides the energy used for evaporation and transpiration. •Its amount and distribution sets limits to the dry matter production of crops.

5 Sunshine Duration (Light)

•Light aids photo stimulus (i.e. plant movement) & formative processes (e.g. leaf expansion, stem elongation, etc.)

2. Notable Meteorological Parameters and Their Relevance to Agriculture & Food Prod Conts.

S/N MET PARAMETERS

RELEVANCE TO AGRICULTURE & FOOD PRODUCTION

6 Rel. Humidity It is the percentage measure of atmospheric wetness or dryness. Higher percentage could lead to disease out break on both crops and livestocks.

7

3.Observed Variabilities & Associated Hazards

Rainfall VariabilityRainfall Variability / /Drought, Desertification & FloodsDrought, Desertification & Floods• Declining rainfall and reduction in the length of the rainy Declining rainfall and reduction in the length of the rainy

season are becoming widespread following high variability in season are becoming widespread following high variability in rainfall distribution with shifts in periods of onset, cessation rainfall distribution with shifts in periods of onset, cessation peaks and breaks. peaks and breaks. The result of this is increase in drought The result of this is increase in drought affected areas giving rise to water scarcity, saffected areas giving rise to water scarcity, shorter growing horter growing period available for farming, and subsequently period available for farming, and subsequently forced forced migration that escalates resource-based conflicts.migration that escalates resource-based conflicts.

• Increasing frequency of heavy rainfall is being observed in some areas, especially along the coastal areas leading to about 15-20% increase in rainfall. Impact of this include flood, and erosion that usually result in loss of lives including livestocks’, devastation of farmlands/infrastructures which lead to increase in food prices.

3.Observed Variabilities & Associated Hazards conts.

Temperature VariabilityTemperature Variability leading to leading to Heat Waves Heat Waves • Temperature increase of about an average of 0.4-1.5˚C with Temperature increase of about an average of 0.4-1.5˚C with

extreme values of 2.0 to 3.3˚C are being observed. The rate of extreme values of 2.0 to 3.3˚C are being observed. The rate of increase is about 0.6-1.2 for the warm season across the increase is about 0.6-1.2 for the warm season across the country between the period:1943-2000.country between the period:1943-2000. The result is warmer The result is warmer and more frequent hot days & nights over most places. In and more frequent hot days & nights over most places. In addition such condition is harmful to root crops, and addition such condition is harmful to root crops, and shortens duration of crop growth cycle, which leads to poor shortens duration of crop growth cycle, which leads to poor yields. yields.

• The warm condition also enhances eThe warm condition also enhances emergence of new pests and disease vectors

3 Observed Var & Asstd Hazards conts:

Mean Maximum Temperature over Nigeria

y = 0.0195x + 31.751

31

32

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34

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03

20

05

YEARS

Me

an

Maxim

um

Te

mp

era

ture

(o

C)

Max

Mean

Linear (Max)

(b) Temperature. Mean Surface Temperature over Nigeria

25.5

26

26.5

27

27.5

28

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YEARS

ME

AN

TE

MP

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AT

UR

E

yeardt

dT

TREND IN LONG - TERM WARM SEASON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 1943-2000

0.0000

0.0050

0.0100

0.0150

0.0200

0.0250

0.0300

0.0350

YEL SOK MAI KAN YOL KAD BAU JOS MIN LOK MKD ENU BEN WAR OND IKJ PH CAL

TE

MP

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AT

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C)

INC

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AS

E P

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Y

EA

R

Changes in Average Mean Temperatures

Decadal Changes in Surface Temperature(degrees Celsius) over Nigeria

26.1

26.2

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27

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Years

Mea

n S

urfa

ce T

empe

ratu

re

1951 - 1981

1961 - 1990

1971 - 2000

1976 - 2005

mean maximum temperature along the Nigerian coast

30.6

30.8

31.0

31.2

31.4

31.6

31.8

32.0

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Year

tem

pera

ture

valu

es

mean

Linear (mean)

mean minimum temperature along the Nigerian coast

22.2

22.4

22.6

22.8

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23.8

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

year

min

imu

m t

em

pera

ture

valu

es

mean

Linear (mean)

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR SOUTHERN STATIONS

y = 0.0251x + 30.603

29

30

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YEARS

MA

XIM

UM

TE

MP

ER

AT

UR

E(o

C)

TMAX

MEAN

Linear (TMAX)

4.0 Observed Climate Variability & Changes in Nigeria.

Deviation of 1941 – ’70 Mean onset date of rainy season from the 1911 – ’40 onset dates

Deviation of 1971 – 2000 Mean onset date of rainy season from the 1911 – ’40 onset dates

Late Onset now spreading to many parts of the country

Late onsets of rains in a few places

Deviation of 1941 – ‘70 Mean cessation date of rainy season from the 1911 – ’40 cessation dates

Early cessation of rains in and around Ondo/Ilorin

Early cessation of the rains now affect many parts of the country

Deviation of 1971-2000 cessation dates from 1911-’40

Figure 1.2 Flooding of Aiyetoro community along the Mahin Mud coast. Flooding results from multiple of causes: erosion (note the shoreline on the top side of picture), low lying topography, sea level rise etc (Awosika et. al, 2000)

Flood Condition

5. NIMET’S AGRO-CLIMATE INFO SERVICES/PRODUCTS FOR MANAGING THE HAZARDS/FOOD CRISIS Agro-climatic information aids management of agricultural activities and

operations (e.g. determining the time, extent and manner of cultivation, sowing, planting, application of biocides and herbicides, fertilizer application, ploughing, harrowing, irrigation, etc.).

It is therefore concerned with indispensable climatic parameters such as precipitation, humidity, temperature, solar radiation, wind/air motion, soil moisture content. These are useful for interpretation of physical processes in the lower atmosphere and upper soil layers, which are of great importance to agriculture.A summary of the various Agro-climate information services/products are as tabulated below. Judicious and appropriate applications of these have been proved to result in about 30% increase in crop yield. Other benefits include: (a) reduction of the vulnerability of food production to weather hazards, (b) ensuring informed decisions about water management for crop, (c) aiding farmers in adjusting planting dates and selection of crop varieties, (d) enhancing irrigation strategies and (e) reducing agric losses from natural hazard events via the Early Warning Services/information provided on the hazards.

5. NIMET’S AGRO-CLIMATE INFO SERVICES/PRODUCTS FOR MANAGING THE HAZARDS/FOOD CRISISS/N NIMET’S

AIS/PRODAPPLICATION-AREAS TOWARDS MANAGING FOOD CRISIS

1 ANNUAL/SEASONAL RAINFALL

PREDICTION (on-set and cessation dates of the cropping season, amount & distribution)

• Mainly for planning purposes by operators in the Agric & other socio-economic sectors like water resource. • Provides advisories to farmers on crop selection to suit the predicted hazards e.g. drought or flood

2 DECADAL AGROMET (BULLETIN), i.e. published every 10

days

•Shows the nation’s agro-climate at a glance. •It also gives the rain amount & anomalies, the soil moisture cond, temp variations, growing degree days, etc. as well as the weather outlook for the following decade. It thus aids monitoring agro-climate conditions & expected impact on crop/livestock performance.

3 FARMERS ‘ GUIDE • Gives Advisory/guide on WHAT TO PLANT, WHERE TO PLANT,HOW TO PLANT and WHEN TO PLANT, and so reduces risk of crop failures. It also contains information the onset & cessation dates of rains, LGS, average annual rainfall & rainfall equivalent to be added by way of irrigation to ensure better YIELD. Very useful for Agric Investors

5. NIMET’S AGRO-CLIMATE INFO SERVICES/PRODUCTS FOR MANAGING THE HAZARDS/FOOD CRISISS/N MET PARAMETERS RELEVANCE TO AGRICULTURE & FOOD PRODUCTION

4 ANNUAL CLIMATE REVIEW

•Gives the observed changes in Climate Parameters

5 QUARTERLY WEATHER REVIEW

•Reviews synoptic features like Temps.( max, min & mean), Rainfall & their socio-economic impacts on Marine, Agricultural Water resources activities.

6 MARINE MET QUARTERLY BULLETIN

•Monitors coastal weather especially over the South Atlantic Ocean at Victoria Island, the Sea Surface Temps (SST), winds, etc in aid of Maritime activities

like fishing.

5. NIMET’S AGRO-CLIMATE INFO SERVICES/PRODUCTS FOR MANAGING THE HAZARDS/FOOD CRISISS/N MET PARAMETERS RELEVANCE TO AGRICULTURE & FOOD PRODUCTION

7HYDROMET QUARTERLY

BULLETIN

•Gives information on drought situation, availability of precipitable water for Water Resources Management in the Country.

8 YIELD ANOMALIES • This is a special analysis used in assessing impact of climate variability on food production; can also be useful to agric investors

Assessing Impact/Trends of Climate Change/Variability on Food Production in Nigeria Using Yield Anomalies.

Assessing Impact/Trends of Climate Change/Variability on Food Production in Nigeria Using Yield Anomalies

conts.

Assessing Impact/Trends of Climate Change/Variability on Food Production in Nigeria Using Yield Anomalies

conts.

Stakeholders like Agric Policy-makers & Planners Agriculturists cum Agricultural

extension officers, Agronomists, Farmers, Horticulturists, Aqua culturists, Researchers

and other Agro-allied field operators need to partner with NIMET on the following

areas in order to ensure improved agro-climate information services/products:

Sensitization of Farmers on use of socio-economic benefits of agrometeorological

services & other Early Warning Services (EWS) of NIMET, through collaborations with

Agric Ext workers, Agric Dev Pgms, and the Media

Facilitating Disemination of the said information/products for effective use by

operators in the respective sectors,

Identification of users’ information needs in the sector, and

Inputs /Feedback from agricultural sectors to add values to the agromet bulletins.

6.AREAS OF PARTNERSHIP/COLLABORATION FOR IMPROVED AGRO-CLIMATE SERVICES

7.0 CONCLUSION No doubt, the carrying capacity of the biosphere to produce enough food

for our teeming population is being seriously threatened by agroclimate variabilities. The need to ensure appropriate application of the outlined NIMET’s Agro-climate Info Services (AIS)/products that address such critical conditions (e.g. Crop water availability & temperature tolerance levels) is therefore of utmost importance.

There is also need to incorporate NIMET’s AIS into the nation’s effort in adapting to climate change-induced food crisis especially through collaborations among the relevant stakeholders, as recently demonstrated at the global level by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the World Food Programme (WFP).

An MoU is being put together by the duo to focus on shared concerns about climate change/Meteorology, hunger, nutrition and food security. It also aims at enhancing collaboration & collective capacity to protect lives and livelihood of the vulnerable communities.

7.0 CONCLUSION conts. Finally, it is important to note that; (a) Climate Change is a ‘Crisis multiplier’ and (b) As it becomes very rapid, weather/climate-related

factors that contribute to food crisis are expected to increase both in frequency and intensity.

In order to equally ensure accelerated coping cum adaptive strategies, efficient and timely use of the various enumerated NIMET’s agro-climatic information should constitute a major component of any effort geared towards achieving food security in times of crisis.

Efforts to strengthen infrastructural and human capacity of the relevant institutions’ agro-allied information support systems such as NIMET’s Agro-climate Info Services, towards achieving improved service delivery in this area should be seen as an investment rather than an expenditure.

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