2009 COFFEE IN THE U.S.

Keeping it hot. This report looks at the trends and issues affecting the coffee industry, including the constant innovation required to keep this former commodity product from losing its cachet. It situates the U.S. market in its global context and delivers data on coffee production and consumption, imports and exports, advertising and demographics. It also covers the ready-to-drink coffee market and projects the U.S. coffee market five years into the future.

More than 150 pages, with extensive text, charts, tables and graphs. Printed volume $5,595; single-user CD $5,595; $5,995 for both. BMCDataDirect Internet delivery: 3-user license $6,295; $400 per additional user; BMCDataDirect Internet delivery: 3-user license plus one printed volume $6,695. Call for multi-user discount prices.

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Coffeein the U.S.2009 EditionDecember 2009R E S E A R C H D A T A C O N S U L T I N G

NOTE: The information contained in this report is confidential and solely intended for the benefit of the immediate recipient hereof.

Copyright 2009 Beverage Marketing Corporation of New York, 850 Third Avenue, New York, New York 10022, (212) 688-7640. All rights reserved. Reproductions in any form prohibited by law.

Table of Contents

Con

ten

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Coffee in The U.S.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

TABLE OF CONTENTS------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- i

DEFINITIONS USED IN THIS REPORT----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ix

INTRODUCTION-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- xi

Chapter

1. THE U.S. COFFEE MARKET

The National Coffee Market----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1

Overview--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1

Per Capita Consumption------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2

U.S. Coffee Trends----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4

Overview--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4

Consumption by Location---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6

Premiumization------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 7

Prices------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8

Single-Serve Appliances------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 11

Exhibits-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14

2. THE U.S. COFFEE MARKET BY SEGMENT

Coffee Segments------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 21

Overview--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 21

Roast/Ground--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 22

Whole Bean----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 22

Instant and Mixes--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 23

Pods--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 24

Ready-to-Drink------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 24

Exhibits-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 25

3. THE U.S. SPECIALTY COFFEE MARKET

Specialty Coffee-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 29

Overview--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 29

Specialty Coffee Locations--------------------------------------------------------------------------- 33

Exhibits-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 34

4. U.S. COFFEE IMPORTS, EXPORTS AND STOCKS

Coffee Imports---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 37

Overview--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 37

Green Coffee--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 37

Imports by Country of Origin------------------------------------------------------------------------ 38

Arabica and Robusta----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 40

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Coffee in the U.S.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Chapter

4. U.S. COFFEE IMPORTS, EXPORTS AND STOCKS (cont’d)

Coffee Exports and Stocks------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 43

Exports----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 43

Stocks------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 43

Exhibits-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 44

5. THE U.S. COFFEE MARKET BY DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL

Coffee Distribution----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 67

Overview--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 67

The U.S. Coffee Market by Location------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 69

Overview--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 69

Exhibits-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 72

6. THE LEADING COFFEE COMPANIES AND THEIR BRANDS

The Leading Companies---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 75

Overview--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 75

Leading Coffee Roasters------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 80

Leading Coffee Cafés---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 81

Exhibits-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 90

7. THE U.S. READY-TO-DRINK COFFEE MARKET

The National RTD Coffee Market----------------------------------------------------------------------------------105

Overview---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------105

Per Capita Consumption------------------------------------------------------------------------------105

Seasonality------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------106

Leading RTD Coffee Brands--------------------------------------------------------------------------106

Regional RTD Coffee Markets-----------------------------------------------------------------------109

RTD Coffee Distribution-------------------------------------------------------------------------------110

Exhibits--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------111

8. COFFEE INDUSTRY PRICING IN THE U.S.

Coffee Pricing------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------125

Overview---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------125

Consumer Price Index---------------------------------------------------------------------------------125

Producer Price Index-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------127

Exhibits--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------129

9. U.S. COFFEE MARKET ADVERTISING EXPENDITURES

Coffee Advertising-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------131

Overview---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------131

Leading Coffee Advertisers--------------------------------------------------------------------------132

Spending by Media-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------134

ii Copyright 2009 Beverage Marketing Corporation of New YorkReproduction without written permission is strictly prohibited

Coffee in the U.S.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Exhibits--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------135

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Coffee in the U.S.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Chapter

10. DEMOGRAPHICS OF THE U.S. COFFEE CONSUMER

The Coffee Consumer-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------143

Coffee Users----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------143

Iced Coffee Users---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------145

Exhibit---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------147

11. THE GLOBAL COFFEE MARKET

The International Coffee Market-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------149

Overview---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------149

Consumption---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------152

Consumption by Selected Countries-----------------------------------------------------------------------------154

Overview---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------154

Brazil--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------156

Germany---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------157

India---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------158

Japan--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------158

China--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------158

Russia-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------159

Colombia---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------159

The International Fairtrade Coffee Market---------------------------------------------------------------------161

Overview---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------161

Volume-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------163

Exhibits--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------166

12. THE PROJECTED U.S. COFFEE MARKET

The Projected National Coffee Market---------------------------------------------------------------------------173

Overview---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------173

Volume-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------174

Per Capita Consumption------------------------------------------------------------------------------175

Growth------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------175

The Projected National RTD Coffee Market--------------------------------------------------------------------176

Overview---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------176

Per Capita Consumption------------------------------------------------------------------------------176

Exhibits--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------177

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Coffee in the U.S.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Exhibit

1. THE U.S. COFFEE MARKET

1.1 U.S. Coffee Market Volume and Growth 1987 – 2008---------------------------------------------- 14

1.2 U.S. Coffee Market Dollar Sales and Growth 1998 –2008----------------------------------------- 15

1.3 U.S. Coffee Market Price Per Gallon 1998 – 2008---------------------------------------------------- 16

1.4 U.S. Coffee Market Compound Annual Volume Growth 1995 – 2008-------------------------- 17

1.5 U.S. Coffee Market Per Capita Consumption 1987 – 2008---------------------------------------- 18

1.6 U.S. Coffee Market New Product Introductions 2000 – 2008------------------------------------- 19

2. THE U.S. COFFEE MARKET BY SEGMENT

2.7 U.S. Coffee Market Estimated Consumption, Share and Change by Segment

2006 – 2008----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 25

2.8 U.S. Coffee Market Estimated Per Capita Consumption by Segment 2006 – 2008-------- 26

2.9 U.S. Coffee Market Estimated Retail Dollars, Share and Change by Segment

2006 – 2008----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 27

3. THE U.S. SPECIALTY COFFEE MARKET

3.10 U.S. Specialty Coffee Market Estimated Retail Sales and Growth 1999 – 2008------------ 34

3.11 U.S. Specialty Coffee Market Percentage of Adults Drinking Specialty Coffee

2001 – 2008----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 35

3.12 U.S. Specialty Coffee Market Number of Locations 2001 – 2008------------------------------- 36

4. U.S. COFFEE IMPORTS, EXPORTS AND STOCKS

4.13 Imported Coffee Market All Countries and Types 1998 – 2008---------------------------------- 44

4.14 Imported Coffee Market Volume by Coffee Type 2003 – 2008---------------------------------- 45

4.15 Imported Coffee Market Share of Volume by Coffee Type 2003 – 2008---------------------- 46

4.16 Imported Coffee Market Change in Volume by Coffee Type 2004 – 2008------------------- 47

4.17 Imported Coffee Market Volume by Country of Origin 2003 – 2008--------------------------- 48

4.18 Imported Coffee Market Share of Volume by Country of Origin 2003 – 2008--------------- 49

4.19 Imported Coffee Market Change in Volume by Country of Origin 2004 – 2008------------ 50

4.20 Imported Coffee Market Arabica, Not Roasted, Not Decaffeinated Volume by

Country of Origin 2003 – 2008----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 51

4.21 Imported Coffee Market Share of Arabica, Not Roasted, Not Decaffeinated Volume

by Country of Origin 2003 – 2008------------------------------------------------------------------------ 52

4.22 Imported Coffee Market Change in Arabica, Not Roasted, Not Decaffeinated

Volume by Country of Origin 2004 – 2008------------------------------------------------------------- 53

4.23 Imported Coffee Market Not Roasted, Not Decaffeinated Volume by Country of

Origin 2003 – 2008-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 54

4.24 Imported Coffee Market Share of Not Roasted, Not Decaffeinated Volume by

Country of Origin 2003 – 2008----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 55

4.25 Imported Coffee Market Change in Not Roasted, Not Decaffeinated Volume by

Country of Origin 2004 – 2008----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 56

v Copyright 2009 Beverage Marketing Corporation of New YorkReproduction without written permission is strictly prohibited

Coffee in the U.S.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Exhibit

4. U.S. COFFEE IMPORTS, EXPORTS AND STOCKS (cont’d)

4.26 Imported Coffee Market Not Roasted, Decaffeinated Volume by Country of Origin

2003 – 2008----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 57

4.27 Imported Coffee Market Share of Not Roasted, Decaffeinated Volume by Country of

Origin 2003 – 2008-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 58

4.28 Imported Coffee Market Change in Not Roasted, Decaffeinated Volume by

Country of Origin 2004 – 2008----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 59

4.29 Imported Coffee Market Roasted, Not Decaffeinated Volume by Country of

Origin 2003 – 2008-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 60

4.30 Imported Coffee Market Share of Roasted, Not Decaffeinated Volume by Country of

Origin 2003 – 2008-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 61

4.31 Imported Coffee Market Change in Roasted, Not Decaffeinated Volume by Country

of Origin 2004 – 2008----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 62

4.32 Imported Coffee Market Roasted, Decaffeinated Volume by Country of Origin

2003 – 2008----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 63

4.33 Imported Coffee Market Share of Roasted, Decaffeinated Volume by Country of

Origin 2003 – 2008-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 64

4.34 Imported Coffee Market Change in Roasted, Decaffeinated Volume by Country of

Origin 2004 – 2008-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 65

4.35 Exported Coffee Market All Countries and Types 1998 – 2008---------------------------------- 66

5. THE U.S. COFFEE MARKET BY DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL

5.36 U.S. Coffee Market Estimated Volume, Share and Change by Distribution Channel

2006 – 2008----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 72

5.37 U.S. Coffee Market Estimated Retail Dollars, Share and Change by Distribution

Channel 2006 – 2008----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 73

5.38 U.S. Coffee Market Top Retailers by Number of Locations 2009-------------------------------- 74

6. THE LEADING COFFEE COMPANIES AND THEIR BRANDS

6.39 U.S. Coffee Market Volume, Share and Growth by Leading Manufacturers

2006 – 2008----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 90

6.40 U.S. Coffee Market Retail Dollars, Share and Growth by Leading Manufacturers

2006 – 2008----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 91

6.41 U.S. Coffee Market Volume, Share and Growth by Leading Brands 2006 – 2008---------- 92

6.42 U.S. Coffee Market Retail Dollars, Share and Growth by Leading Brands

2006 – 2008----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 93

6.43 U.S. Whole Bean Coffee Market Volume, Share and Growth by Brand 2006 – 2008 ---- 94

6.44 U.S. Whole Bean Coffee Market Retail Dollars, Share and Growth by Brand

2006 – 2008----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 95

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Coffee in the U.S.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Exhibit

6. THE LEADING COFFEE COMPANIES AND THEIR BRANDS (cont’d)

6.45 U.S. Roast/Ground Coffee Market Volume, Share and Growth by Brand

2006 – 2008----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 96

6.46 U.S. Roast/Ground Coffee Market Retail Dollars, Share and Growth by Brand

2006 – 2008----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 97

6.47 U.S. Coffee Mix Market Volume, Share and Growth by Brand 2006 – 2008----------------- 98

6.48 U.S. Coffee Mix Market Retail Dollars, Share and Growth by Brand 2006 – 2008--------- 99

6.49 U.S. Instant Coffee Market Volume, Share and Growth by Brand 2006 – 2008------------100

6.50 U.S. Instant Coffee Market Retail Dollars, Share and Growth by Brand

2006 – 2008-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------101

6.51 U.S. Coffee Pod Market Volume, Share and Growth by Brand 2006 – 2008-----------------102

6.52 U.S. Coffee Pod Market Retail Dollars, Share and Growth by Brand

2006 – 2008-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------103

7. THE U.S. READY-TO-DRINK COFFEE MARKET

7.53 The National RTD Coffee Market Wholesale Dollars and Case Volume 1993 – 2008-----111

7.54 The National RTD Coffee Market Wholesale Dollars and Case Volume Growth

1994 – 2008-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------112

7.55 The National RTD Coffee Market Per Capita Consumption 1993 – 2008----------------------113

7.56 The National RTD Coffee Market Quarterly Volume Shares 2003 – 2008--------------------114

7.57 Leading RTD Coffee Brands Estimated Wholesale Dollars 2003 – 2008----------------------115

7.58 Leading RTD Coffee Brands Estimated Share of Wholesale Dollars 2003 – 2008---------116

7.59 Leading RTD Coffee Brands Estimated Change in Wholesale Dollars 2004 – 2008-------117

7.60 The Regional RTD Coffee Markets Wholesale Dollar Sales 1993 – 2008---------------------118

7.61 The Regional RTD Coffee Markets Wholesale Dollar Share 1993 – 2008---------------------119

7.62 The Regional RTD Coffee Markets Wholesale Dollar Growth 1994 – 2008-------------------120

7.63 The National RTD Coffee Market Estimated Volume by Distribution Channel

2003 – 2008-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------121

7.64 The National RTD Coffee Market Share of Volume by Distribution Channel

2003 – 2008-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------122

7.65 The National RTD Coffee Market Change in Volume by Distribution Channel

2004 – 2008-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------123

8. COFFEE INDUSTRY PRICING IN THE U.S.

8.66 Consumer Price Index Changes for Coffee and Other Items 1995 – 2008-------------------129

8.67 Producer Price Index Changes for Coffee and All Commodities 1995 – 2008---------------130

9. U.S. COFFEE MARKET ADVERTISING EXPENDITURES

9.68 U.S. Coffee Market Estimated Advertising Expenditures 2000 – 2008------------------------135

9.69 U.S. Coffee Market Expenditures by Leading Advertisers 2003 – 2008-----------------------136

9.70 U.S. Coffee Market Share of Expenditures by Leading Advertisers

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Coffee in the U.S.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

2003 – 2008-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------137

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Coffee in the U.S.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Exhibit

9. U.S. COFFEE MARKET ADVERTISING EXPENDITURES (cont’d)

9.71 U.S. Coffee Market Change in Expenditures by Leading Advertisers

2004 – 2008-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------138

9.72 U.S. Coffee Market Advertising Expenditures by Media 2003 – 2008-------------------------139

9.73 U.S. Coffee Market Share of Advertising Expenditures by Media 2003 – 2008-------------140

9.74 U.S. Coffee Market Change in Advertising Expenditures by Media 2004 – 2008-----------141

10. DEMOGRAPHICS OF THE U.S. COFFEE CONSUMER

10.75Demographics of the Coffee Consumer 2008---------------------------------------------------------147

10.76Demographics of the Iced Coffee Consumer 2008--------------------------------------------------148

11. THE GLOBAL COFFEE MARKET

11.77Global Green Coffee Market Volume and Growth 1994 – 2008----------------------------------166

11.78Global Green Coffee Market Estimated Consumption by Country 2002 – 2007------------167

11.79Global Green Coffee Market Share of Consumption by Country 2002 – 2007--------------168

11.80Global Green Coffee Market Change in Consumption by Country 2003 – 2007------------169

11.81Global Fairtrade Coffee Market Sales Volume by Country 2002 – 2007----------------------170

11.82Global Fairtrade Coffee Market Share of Sales Volume by Country 2002 – 2007----------171

11.83Global Fairtrade Coffee Market Change in Sales Volume by Country 2003 – 2007-------172

12. THE PROJECTED U.S. COFFEE MARKET

12.84Projected U.S. Coffee Market Volume and Growth 1987 – 2013--------------------------------177

12.85Projected U.S. Coffee Market Per Capita Consumption 1987 – 2013--------------------------178

12.86Projected U.S. Coffee Market Compound Annual Growth 1995 – 2013-----------------------179

12.87Projected U.S. RTD Coffee Market Volume and Growth 1993 – 2013--------------------------180

12.88Projected U.S. RTD Coffee Market Per Capita Consumption 1993 – 2013--------------------181

12.89Projected U.S. RTD Coffee Market Compound Annual Growth 2000 – 2013-----------------182

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Exhibit 7.59

LEADING RTD COFFEE BRANDSESTIMATED CHANGE IN WHOLESALE DOLLARS

2004 – 2008

Brand 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08

Frappuccino 22.7% 25.5% 8.3% -3.6% 5.4%DoubleShot Energy Coffee -- -- -- -- --Java Monster -- -- -- -- 181.9%DoubleShot 22.8% 35.7% 24.2% 7.1% -7.5%Starbucks Iced Coffee -- -- -- 62.9% -54.6%Godiva -- -- -- 148.5% -59.4%Cinnabon -- -- -- 355.3% -13.6%Havana 8.3% -12.8% -30.4% -37.1% 0.9%Blue Luna/Arizona -26.6% 8.9% -50.3% -65.9% -64.7%Kahlua -3.9% 7.4% -56.3% -78.2% -49.3%Wolfgang Puck 1208.1% 280.6% -60.2% -94.9% -88.5%Planet Java -- -- -- -- --All Other -35.3% -10.5% 63.2% 1.3% 63.8%

TOTAL 17.0% 25.4% 13.8% 2.6% 20.8%

Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation

Copyright 2009 Beverage Marketing Corporation of New YorkReproduction without written permission is strictly prohibited

As the coffee market matures, new trends have started emerging in response to changing

consumer demographics and preferences.

Increased demand for coffee and specialty coffee is being driven by the growth in

the breakfast day-part, as well as the desire for afternoon and evening snacks and

small indulgences.

In addition, consumers are becoming more cognizant of how their own

consumption of products can impact the environment and are willing to pay more

money to have goods and services from ecologically and socially responsible

companies.

More and more, consumers prefer to buy products from companies that are

“green” and corporations are responding to this, whether from a financial

incentive or coming from top down management decisions where the concern is

genuine.

Moving away from a commoditized product and showing differentiation in the market place has

helped companies gain market share. As such, “premiumization” has become a key trend in any

beverage market, especially coffee.

The premium and value gourmet segment has been gaining traction, owing to the

shift towards healthier and more upscale beverages. The consumer’s palate has

matured to demand a high quality product.

Moreover, in recent times, coffee consuming demographic has vastly different

tastes which in a way is indirectly responsible for premiumization of coffee or

more attention is being given to private labels as brand name and strong

distribution are influencing growth of the private label coffee category.

The recent trends showcase the rise of premium features as gourmet blends in the

coffee industry. High on the preference list of consumers is now private label

brands, helped by premiumization and improvements in labeling technology which

are making private label coffee more attractively packaged than ever before. This

is further enhanced by the fact that consumers are more and more ready to try

new labels as they offer ample choice and blends. Consumers are actively

seeking out variety and are willing to experiment rather than remaining

completely loyal to one brand.

Keeping up with the recent premiumization trends and consumer’s demand, many

coffee house giants like Starbucks, McDonald’s, Burger King and Dunkin’ Donuts

have started introducing a pricier premium coffee in its restaurants.

With breakfast accounting for roughly two-thirds of all the coffee consumed

throughout the day, McDonald’s Premium Roast coffee was aimed to offer

customers their favorite breakfast and a premium coffee at one place. The per-

Copyright 2009 Beverage Marketing Corporation of New YorkReproduction without written permission is strictly prohibited

unit coffee sales for McDonald’s rose by 15% following the introduction of

premium coffee.

TOTAL COFFEE CONSUMPTION DECLINES WITH AGE(Index of Coffee Consumption by Age, 2008)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

18-24 YearsOld

25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 and older

Ind

ex

Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation

Copyright 2009 Beverage Marketing Corporation of New YorkReproduction without written permission is strictly prohibited