QUARTERLY MONETARY POLICY PRESS BRIEFING21 February 2018

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QUARTERLY MONETARY POLICY PRESS BRIEFING21 February 2018

February 20

March 27

May 16

June 27

2018

August 28

October 02

November 16

December 20

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2

Policy Ratereduced to

Effective: 21 February 2018

2.75%

QUARTERLY MONETARY POLICY PRESS BRIEFING21 February 2018 3

Inflation for the next eight quarters within target range of 4.0 – 6.0 per cent

QUARTERLY MONETARY POLICY PRESS BRIEFING21 February 2018 4

Headline InflationAnnual Point-to-Point (%)

QUARTERLY MONETARY POLICY PRESS BRIEFING21 February 2018

4.4 4.64.4

4.6 4.74.9

5.2

4.8

Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18

Source: STATIN

5

Real GDP growth has been sluggishAnnual Growth Rate (%)

QUARTERLY MONETARY POLICY PRESS BRIEFING21 February 2018 6

Source: STATIN

Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS)

QUARTERLY MONETARY POLICY PRESS BRIEFING21 February 2018 7

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

• Eight (8) monetary policy decisions per year.

21 February 2018 QUARTERLY MONETARY POLICY PRESS BRIEFING 8

2.75 -0.25

Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS)

QUARTERLY MONETARY POLICY PRESS BRIEFING21 February 2018 9

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

• Comprehensive assessment of current and projected

economic conditions including outlook for inflation.

• End result of assessment: A monetary policy decision.

Jamaica's transition to a modern

competitive foreign exchange market

is in train…

QUARTERLY MONETARY POLICY PRESS BRIEFING21 February 2018

Oct-Dec 2017

3.8%appreciation

10

Foreign exchange surrender requirements

reduced by:

QUARTERLY MONETARY POLICY PRESS BRIEFING21 February 2018

Effective since: 07 February 2018

percentage points

11

QUARTERLY MONETARY POLICY PRESS BRIEFING21 February 2018 12

• Selling US$40 million for the first

two weeks of March 2018.

21 February 2018 QUARTERLY MONETARY POLICY PRESS BRIEFING 13

and resilience in Jamaica…

macroeconomic stability…to improve

QUARTERLY MONETARY POLICY PRESS BRIEFING21 February 2018

Bank focused on maintaining low inflation …

Period of favourable oil shock faded over time and

ended about June 2016

14

GO TO REPORT October to December 2017 Quarter

Inflation

Annual inflation was 5.2 per cent at end-December 2017,

relative to the 4.6 per cent recorded at end-September 2017.

This acceleration reflected increases in most of the inflation

components, in particular agricultural prices, electricity costs, fuels

and transportation costs… READ MORE >.

Foreign Exchange Market

The weighted average selling rate (WASR) of the Jamaica

Dollar vis-á-vis the US dollar closed the December 2017

quarter at J$125.00 = US$1.00. This reflected appreciations of

3.8 per cent relative to the previous quarter and 2.7 per cent

relative to end-December 2016... READ MORE >.

International Economy

Global economic growth for the December 2017 quarter is

estimated to have remained unchanged relative to the

September 2017 quarter but was higher than projected. This

estimated growth was underpinned by stronger expansion in a

number of economies, including Canada and other commodity

exporting countries, the impact of which was offset by weaker

growth in the US, UK, Euro… READ MORE >.

Fiscal Developments

Central Government operations recorded a fiscal surplus of

0.4 per cent of GDP for the December 2017 quarter, relative

to the budgeted deficit of 0.3 per cent of GDP. The outturn

reflected lower than budgeted Expenditure while Revenue &

Grants… READ MORE >.

Jamaican Economy

The Jamaican economy is estimated to have grown, in real

terms, within the range of 1.0 per cent to 2.0 per cent for the

December 2017 quarter, largely in line with the outturn recorded in

the corresponding quarter of 2016. The growth was also reflected in

improved labour market conditions... READ MORE >

Implications for Monetary Policy

The Bank forecasts that inflation will remain relatively stable

over the next four quarters, despite improved demand

conditions and the lagged effects of agriculture supply shocks.

For FY2018/19, inflation is projected to remain within the Bank’s

target range of 4.0 per cent to 6.0 per cent... READ MORE >.

MORE INFORMATION

Special Features● Inflation Expectations Survey

● Global Economic Growth in Selected Economies

● Credit Conditions Survey

● Jamaica’s Recent Economic Performance under its IMF SBA-supported Programme

Economic Data and Publications● National Summary Data Page (NSDP)

● Advance Release Calendar

● Statistical Digest

● Jamaica in FiguresFor queries, email publications@boj.org.jm.

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