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Dr Alan Abelsohn
A/ Prof Grant Blashki
Climate change and health
Climate Change Conference 2010Alan Abelsohn, University of Toronto
Addressing the Health Effects of Climate Change: Family Physicians are Key
http://www.ocfp.on.ca
Climate change related to global warming is the world’s most urgent public health problem (Stott BMJ 2006)
Climate change has been called the defining issue for public health in the 21st century. (Chan, 2007)
Climate change related to global warming is the world’s most urgent public health problem (Stott BMJ 2006)
Climate change has been called the defining issue for public health in the 21st century. (Chan, 2007)
Health Impacts of Climate Change
Direct impactsTemperature relatedExtreme weather events
Indirect impactsAir pollution relatedWater and food borne contaminationVector borne and zoonotic diseasesSocio-economic impacts on communities
The French Heat Wave 2003 Daily Mortality in Paris
Source: INVS, 2003
Number of hot days above 30C
Heat Waves in Canadian Cities
Environment Canada 2005
Heat Related ImpactsHeat related illnessVulnerable populations
ElderlyChronic IllnessesMedicationsHousingIsolated/ HomelessOccupational
Adaptation: Heat alert programs
Heat, Air Pollution and Weather Related Mortality in Toronto
Air Air PollutionPollution
Acute air Acute air pollution pollution related related elevatedelevatedmortalitymortality
# Days # Days with with temptemp>30>3000CC
Heat Heat alertsalerts
Heat Heat related related elevated elevated mortalitymortality
Cold Cold related related mortalitymortality
Annual Annual mean # mean # (1954-(1954-2000)2000)
822822 88 2.52.5 120120 105105
Predicted Predicted 2080 2080 (based on (based on a 3 fold a 3 fold increase increase in CO2)in CO2)
Substantial Substantial increase in increase in high high pollution pollution days (esp days (esp Ozone Ozone related)related)
25-30% 25-30% increase, increase, to 1070to 1070
4 fold 4 fold increaseincrease
4 fold 4 fold increase increase in hot in hot weather weather warningswarnings
3 fold 3 fold increase increase (360)(360)
60% 60% decreasedecrease
Derived from Toronto Public Health. Influence of Weather and Air Pollution on Mortality in Toronto: Summary Report (Pengelly et al., 2005)
B) Kelowna - August 18-21, 2003 Forest Fires
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91
Hour
AQ
HI
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Po
lluta
nt
co
nc
en
tra
tio
n
NO2=22, O3=13, PM2.5=100, AQHI=7
NO2=7, O3=55, PM2.5=75, AQHI=7
Forest Fire – Air Pollution
AllergiesLength of SeasonIncreased Pollen CountsSynergism with Ozone
Storms, floods, drought
Less developed countries: more vulnerable
Direct injuriesIndirect Damage
PTSD, anxiety, depressionSocio-political unrest and Population Displacement
DroughtWater scarcityMalnutrition, infant mortalityFires
Drought in Australia
Vector Borne Diseases (Zoonoses)
DengueLyme DiseaseMalaria
Potential Spread of Lyme Disease
From Ogden International Journal for Parasitology 2006
Malaria
Rate of development and biting rateIncreased egg survivalIncreased puddles where mosquitoes breed Increased range of survival
AltitudeLatitude
Baseline
Ebi et al. 2005Ebi et al. 2005
Vector-Borne: Malaria in Zimbabwe 2000
2025
Ebi et al. 2005Ebi et al. 2005
2075
Ebi et al. 2005Ebi et al. 2005
Impact in Developing CountriesImpact in Developing Countries
By 2000, climate change since the 1970s
was causing over 150,000 additional deaths per year (WHO, 2002)
Malnutrition; Gastro-enteritis; malaria
Sea level rise
Indirect impacts on international health
WaterFood securityExtreme climatic events
Shelter and human settlementsPopulation displacement and migration
The challenge of poverty and inequality (MDGs)
Costello A et al. Managing the health effects of climate change: Lancet and University College London Institute for Global Health Commission. Lancet. 2009;373:1693-1733.
Costello. Lancet 2009