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National Security Summit, Canberra 31.08.2016
School of Media, Culture and Creative Arts
Dr Alexey D MuravievHead, Department of Social Sciences & Security Studies
Coordinator, International Relations & National Security programs
Director, Strategic Flashlight forum on National Security & Strategy
Back in the Game?Russia’s Strategic & Defence Policy in
the Indo-Pacific
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School of Media, Culture and Creative Arts 31.08.2016
Point One
Crimea, Syria & the
Error of Judgement
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Russia’s Power Response in Crimea
31.08.2016School of Media, Culture and Creative Arts
Covert deployment of special ops
elements
The 76th Pskov Airborne Division
Special Operations Forces (SOF)
Successful ECMs and other
Failure of western intelligence
The force in being
– about 14,000
troops
The navy and air force
Naval infantry/Marines
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The Times, 10 AUGUST 2016…
16.08.2016School of Media, Culture and Creative Arts
“Russia has Edge in Battle, British Army Admits”
“In the unlikely event of a direct confrontation between NATO and
RUS [Russia], we must acknowledge that RUS currently has a
significant capability edge over UK force elements…. Due to the fact
that some of our high-end military capabilities have been eroded since
2003, we must find ways to ‘fight smarter’ at the tactical level,
acknowledging that some adversaries may be armed with weapons
that are superior to our own.”
The world’s second most
powerful military force
Battle hardened, highly
motivated
Significant capability lift
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School of Media, Culture and Creative Arts 31.08.2016
Point Two
Russia’s Military Strategy &
Threat Perceptions
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Complex geopolitical configuration
Bordering China, Japan, North Korea, US
(Alaska)
Opium and heroin (Afghan origin)
Unique geostrategic configuration
Three major, one minor nuclear powers
Major Considerations
School of Media, Culture and Creative Arts 31.08.2016
Regional insecurity
Territorial disputes
Japan, USA, China
(formally resolved)
Korean peninsula
China v Taiwan
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Fear of a major conflict in the Asia-Pacific after 2020 >
General Mahmud Gareev: “The most acute outbreak of struggle may be anticipated in Asia and the Pacific”
Lieutenant-General Leonid Ivashov: “Major threats to Russian national security are… likely to come from the East”
Vice Premier Sergei Ivanov: “It [the Pacific region] is an area of a potential conflict… with absolutely no rules of the game.” (Khabarovsk, 6 April 2007)
Threat Perceptions
School of Media, Culture and Creative Arts 31.08.2016
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31.08.2016
Six strategic vectors; two different
approaches
Robust deterrence and defence
Atlantic/Baltic, Arctic, Black
Sea/Mediterranean
Cooperation and engagement
Pacific, Indian Ocean, Antarctic
The Indo-Pacific vector
Developing special relationships with PLAN and
the Indian Navy
Traditional tasks and missions
The Revised Maritime Doctrine 2015
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School of Media, Culture and Creative Arts 31.08.2016
Point Three
Force Posturing
OSK Vostok [East]
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4 Armies (5th, 29th, 35th & 36th) & 1 Army
Corps (68th)
72,500 personnel (peacetime strength)
30 brigades and 1 (1) division
11th AF/AD Army (3rd AF/AD Command)
About 500 aircraft (LRA & PFNA)
Fourth-generation+ platforms (Syria cont.)
Su-35S, Su-30SM, Su-34, Su-24M2,
Su-27SM, MiG-31BM, Ka-52
Strategic nuclear power (the Triad)
33rd Guards Missile Army: 4 missile divisions
(about 127 launchers)
Order of Battle
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Missions
Strategic nuclear deterrence
Area maritime defence/EEZ protection
Power projection/forward presence
International activities/showing the flag
Order of battle
Over 140 units, including 24 submarines
About 100 aircraft (31 Tu-22M3s/Tu-142s)
Strategic nuclear power (the Triad)
3 Delta III class, 2 Borey class SSBNs
(80 launchers – September 2016)
The 326th Heavy Bomber div
(about 40 Tu-95MS; up to 100 ALCMs)31.08.2016
Order of Battle - Navy
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School of Media, Culture and Creative Arts 31.08.2016
Point Four
Capability Upgrade
OSK Vostok
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31.08.2016
Future Trends – Land and Air
Vision
Protection of Russia’s Far eastern
approaches
The Arctic vector
Formation of a new coastal defence
division by 2018 (Chukotka area)
The China vector (Vietnam…?)
Major additions > 2020
A total of 13,000 pieces of new weapons and
military hardware by 2020
2015 1,000 pieces of military hardware
received
2014 400 new itemsSchool of Media, Culture and Creative Arts
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31.08.2016
Future Trends - Sea
Vision
Concentration of 1/4 of national naval power
Strategic nuclear deterrence
Geopolitical considerations (SEA, IO)
The China vector (Vietnam…?)
Major additions >2025>
Up to 4 Borey class SSBNs
2+ Severodvinsk class SSNs
6 Type 636.3 Improved Kilo class SSKs
1–2 Lavina class LPDs (proposed)
1 (+1) Ushakov, Moskva class CG(N)s
6+ Steregushchiy class FFMs
2+ Admiral Gorshkov class FFGsSchool of Media, Culture and Creative Arts
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School of Media, Culture and Creative Arts 31.08.2016
Point Six
In Conclusion…
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Risen awareness of APIOST’s geo-strategic challenges
Concerns about regional instability
ABM and proliferation concerns
Conventional arms race
Fear of a major conflict in the Asia-Pacific
Concerns about future conflicts in the littoralSergei Ivanov’s remarks in Khabarovsk (2007)
School of Media, Culture and Creative Arts 31.08.2016
Concluding Points
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THANK YOU…31.08.2016
School of Media, Culture and Creative Arts
Back in the Game?
Dr Alexey D MuravievEmail: [email protected]