DR. BAWUMIA’s CASEFOR

NEW VOTERS’ REGISTER IN GHANA

IS BLOATED WITH

MORE GAS THAN EVIDENCE

6 Sep 15

Dr. Bawumia’s Case For A New Voters’ Register In Ghana Is

Bloated With More Gas Than Evidence

GHANAHERO.COM FINDING

Dr. Bawumia findings, eventhough preliminary, do not comport with the evidence he presents in his PowerPoint Slides!...(Prof Lungu, 6 Sep 5).

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Disclosure & Caveat 1. We do not address the so-called “facial biometric recognition technology” findings as not enough data was provided by Dr. Bawumia with respect the “…Less than 10% of…76,286… potential matches…(of)…Togolese voters, and as “The team” was to…“start work on…Cote d’Ivoire registers next week…”.

2. We also do not address the Dr. Bawumia “NHIS cardholders “ finding as we believe an administrative solution can be implemented quickly with minimal cost to Ghana, including charging “foreigners” on a sliding scale of national income and potential burden to the NHIS system.

3. This work was done and is being presented in the interest of Ghana-Centeredness and Ghana-Proud. Prof Lungu and www.GhanaHero.com are not members of any political party, nor do they represent any political party.

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Executive Summary1. PERSPECTIVE OF PREMISE: Entire premise exhibits

wanton lack of perspective: Ghana is not Kenya, Senegal, Mauritius, Sweden, or USA, even).

2. DR. AFARI DJAN SCHOOL: Dr. Afari Djan’s “conditional statements” are not facts. (No data supports population data given by Dr. Afari Djan).

3. WORLD STANDARD: There is no “World Standard” for participation rate in electoral politics.

4. VALIDITY OF DATA: “Statistically Unacceptable” is not a scientific or valid construct in this case.

5. UNCOUNTED STILL VOTE: When Ghana Fails to properly count its citizens, it does not prevent the uncounted from registering to vote.

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Executive Summary (contd.)

6. GHANA’S PEERS?: Criteria for “Peer Comparison” is unknown: Cherry-Picked or Other-Cherry?

7. TANZANIA A PEER?: Dr. Bawumia under-estimated Tanzania (Percent registered/Pop. is 48.07 (not 42.5%)).

8. MAURITIUS A PEER?: Mauritius in Africa has percent registered/Pop of 70.38% (higher than Ghana).

9. NHIS LOOPHOLE: NHIS loophole does not compel or constitute violation of elections law(s).

10. TAKORADI: When Takoradi, a major Ghanaian City, has a 5.1% drop in electoral registrations between two (2) elections, that is not evidence of a “Bloated…Register”.

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Executive Summary (contd.)11. RUMORS: “…Over the years, people from across the

border in Togo and Cote d’Ivoire registering and voting in Ghanaian elections…”. “Rumors” are never facts!

12. THE BAWUMIA METHOD: Not satisfactory for the purpose. Random sampling as alternative to check on reliability of electoral rolls, for statistical significance, was neglected by Dr. Bawumia. (That is a valid way to show reliability and reproducibility, using “Registers”).

13. RESOURCES: Bawumia asks for new electoral roll but fails to provide information on level of effort required, how it must be funded, etc.

14. OVER THE YEARS?: If during 1992-2012, then, the numbers are fairly consistent. So, where does it Begin-and-End for Dr. Bawumia?

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Conditional Dr. Afari Gyan (2008) Dr. Afari Gyan School: “…If our population is indeed 22

million, then perhaps 13 million people on our register would be statistically unacceptable by world standards. If that is the case, then it may mean that there is something wrong with our register…” (Gyan)

A. “If” conditional statement by Dr. Afari Djan.B. 2008 Pop. = 23.11 million (not 22 million).C. 2008 Registered = 12,472,578 = 53.97% of Population.D. Therefore, Bahumia’s 56.20% is not nearly accurate.E. Further, Mr. Mahama reflecting same conditional error- laden statement has no consequence on the “truth”. (The population of Ghana in ‘08 was 23.11 million, still).

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Parliamentary & Presidential Elections

GhanaHero.Com PerspectivePresidential - Parliamentary = 530,0732012 Population = 24,652,402Difference (530,073) = 3.74%

Note: We concede elections can be won or lost by that margin. Still, Dr. Bawumia ought to have presented the percentage (3.74%) in the interest of perspective.

Bawumia’s Disparity Data (2012) Parliamentary (Registered) = 13,628,817 Presidential (EC Gazette) = 14,158,890

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“…By extension, we submit that the 56.20% voter pop. in 2012, for the population of 25,000,000 persons, must equally be unacceptable by world standards…” (Bawumia)

No: There’s no “World Standard” in participation.

Population (2012) = 25,370,000Registered = 14,031,793Percent Registered = 55.31% , (not 56.20%)

Therefore, Dr. Bawumia over-estimates registered voters 0.89% (by 124,882).

Parliamentary & Presidential Elections

Contd.

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Standards: Ghana and “Peers”

NOTE: Bawumia’s % (Y-Axis) Don’t Align With “Peer” Data on X-Axis

Tanzania

(42.5%)?

Is it 50%

or 41%

“…Our number of registered voters as a percentage of our population is unusually high compared to our peers…(Bawumia)

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Standards: Ghana and “Peers” (contd.)

BAWUMIA CHERRY

OTHER CHERRY*

*http://www.idea.int/vt/countryview.cfm?id=115#__topdoc__Kenya Senegal Ghana Tanzania Nigeria Mauritius South Africa Sweden USA

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

34.5

41.5

56.2

42.5 41.7

70.38

47.75

82.6

53.39

Voter Register to Population (%)

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Standards: Ghana and “Peers” (contd.)

Perspective Better Than Peers You Don’t Know • Nkrumah-Unified Ghana has a longer history of

elections, and unlike Kenya (34.5%) and others, has not experienced a “Kibaki-Problem” before an election, enough to tame registrations since independence in 1957.

• Mauritius, Africa, at 70.38%, is a lot higher than Ghana, at 56.2.

• Sweden, in Europe, is at 82.6%.• USA is at 53.39%.

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“Rumors” Meet Data & Modernity“…Over the years there have been persistent rumors about people from across the border in Togo and Cote d’Ivoire registering and voting in Ghana…” (Bawumia)

Year Turn-Out (%) Registered/Pop. (%)2012 80.15 56.922008 72.91 53.222004 85.12 49.892000 61.74 52.931996 78.21 51.671992 50.16 51.57

ITEM: Over the years, we would expect that with normalcy, education, and growth in population and income, that registration and turn-out would increase! They did!

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Dr. Bawumia Table 4. Selected Districts

If Bawumia District Data is Accurate:1. Difference (27.69%) is out of bounds

with change in pop. of Ghana (8.91%).

2. District Selection Criteria is Unknown.

3. Takoradi’s -5.1% is no Bloat.

4. Districts should be selected at random for valid/reliable results.

Compare 2008 2012 DifferencePercent Change

Selected Districts 761,696 1,053,368 291,672 27.69

Ghana Pop. 23,110,000 25,370,000 2,260,000 8.91

Percent (%) Difference

Increase/Decrease in Voter Register (2008 & 2012)

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Kpone Kantamanso-Accra (57.7%)

Dr. Bawumia’s “Over The Years” Theory!

What About Ga West?

Kpone Kantamanso?

Ga West - Accra (58.6%)

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Dr. Bawumia’s “Over The Years” Theory!

• Dr. Bawumia’s data shows largest increases in voter registrations were in Ga West and Kpone Kantamanso municipal districts, outside Volta and Brong Ahafo Regions.

YearRegistration/Pop (%)

2012 56.922008 53.222004 49.892000 52.931996 51.671992 51.57

• Historical data does not indicate significant changes (e.g. between 1992 - 2012).

• Change between 1992 and 2012 is ~5% possibly due to population increase.

• The changes, nationally, do not constitute “bloated” election register, unless the bloat started ~1992.

Contd.

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Dr. Bawumia Recommendations• “…A new voters register should be created to replace the over

bloated 2012 register…no later than June 2016…Resource the NIA to complete create a register of all inhabitants of the land (the “Population Register”…The new register…should be independently audited by an internationally reputable firm before the 2016 election…”.

WE SAY: Dr Bawumia’s evidence, to the extent the “samples are self-selected/convenient, they do not comport with his findings.

Therefore, the recommendations aren’t justified in the immediate-term given alternatives and resources.

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Five (5) Questions for Dr. Bawumia

1. What period is covered by “over the years” and why? 2. Why is a new register the only/best alternative?3. How do you propose Ghana fund the new register and

what is your preferred schedule?4. As an economics, if “auditing” is not acceptable to you,

why did you neglect to provide a statistical analysis from random samples of the register(s) to make the case for the “bloat”?

5. Why are analyses of “statistical data” using random samples of the register(s) under the auspices an of “internationally reputable firm” not a good solution for Ghana at this time?

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“Rumors” & “Disgruntled Youths”

• AGAIN WE SAY: RUMOURS ARE NOT FACTS!

BUT, WHY ARE THE BNI, THE ATTORNEY GENERAL, THE ELECTORAL COMMISSION, THE GHANA POLICE SERVICE, WHATEVER LAW GHANA HAS, WHY HAS THERE BEEN NO STATEMENT OR ACTION ON THOSE POTENTIALLY CRIMINAL ACTS AGAINST GHANA’S ELECTION LAWS?

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Our Summary & Take in 6 Points!1. Following the appointment of the new Electoral Commissioner, we heard a lot

of calls and agitation for a “fresh start”, new register.2. We believed “fresh start” and “new register” do question the integrity of all

elections, including the ones won by Dr. Bawumia’s political party, at least since 1992. (That is still our belief!).

3. We do not think that approach is a Ghana-centered way to look at the electoral register(s) acquired at huge cost that have served Ghana well.

4. On the other hand, if Dr. Bawumia’s political party will pay for the new register and help expedite the process, as will other stake holders, then Ghana has an obligation to listen. (In that case, Dr. Bawumia must come again!).

5. We are thinking sending that type/quality analysis and other information to the IMF, The World Bank, Donors, Other Government representatives, etc., reflect poorly on the sender, Ghana, and Ghana supporters all over the World.

6. Though very difficult, we hope all of us can try to be a little more balanced, introspective, and restrained in our words, deeds, and “perceptions”?

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(SOURCE: THE CASE FOR A NEW VOTERS’ REGISTER IN GHANA, Bawumia, 18 Aug 15)

Outline1. Dr. Bawumia’s Case for a New Voters Register2. Disclosure & Caveat3. Executive Summary4. Conditional Dr. Afari Gyan (2008)5. Parliamentary & Presidential Elections6. Standards: Ghana and “Peers” 7. “Rumors” Meet Data & Modernity8. Dr. Bawumia Table 4. Selected Districts9. Dr. Bawumia’s “Over The Years” Theory!10. Dr. Bawumia Recommendations11. Five (5) Questions for Dr. Bawumia12. “Rumors” & “Disgruntled Youths”13. Our Summary & Take in 6 Points!14. End – Mo’ Infor’: www.GhanaHero.com

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Read Mo’ & Listen Mo’

Prof Lungu &

www.GhanaHero.com

End

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Ghana-Centered/Ghana-Proud!