Tailoring Arms Control in

the New Strategic

Environment

Dr. Heather Williams

Department of War Studies

King’s College London

April 12, 2016

Bottom Line

• Arms control does not equal disarmament

• Arms control and deterrence are not mutually exclusive

Arms control is a tool for strategic stability and its benefits of

(1) transparency,

(2) predictability, and

(3) reciprocity

are applicable to the new strategic environment.

The ‘New’ Strategic Stability

How We Got Here

NATO Perspective:

• Russian aggression

• Russian defence

modernization

• Russian nuclear sabre-

rattling

Russian Perspective:

• US unipolarity

• US defence

modernization (CPGS,

missile defence)

• US rejection of arms

control

Arms Control Futures

NATO/US perspective:

• Challenges: Russian

violations of INF, TNW,

domestic factors

Russia perspective:

• Challenges: MD and/or

CPGS must be included,

multilateral

Russia needs arms control more than the

United States does for cost-savings,

strategic stability, and prestige.

Tailoring Arms Control

• Maintain remaining areas of cooperation

• Get creative about arms control

• Transparency with friends and potential adversaries

• Predictability to avoid crises escalation

• Reciprocity is not always like-for-like

• ‘Strategic patience’ (hopefully not waiting in vain)

Tailoring Assurance

• ‘All allies are special like all children are special.’

• Tools: conventional, missile defence, defence

spending, nuclear modernization

Final Thoughts from

Henry Kissinger (and Heather Williams)

“It is not a matter of what is true that counts but a matter of

what is perceived to be true.”

“What in the name of God is strategic superiority?”

• Tools for the ‘new’ strategic stability:

• Arms control: creative suggestions?

• Tailored deterrence: alternatives to ‘cross-domain deterrence’?

• Tailored assurance: who needs what and when?

• What is the next ‘new’ strategic stability?