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Dr Ian Pearson
A trip to the future
www.futurizon.com
Virtualisation
Living with virtuality
PhysicalWorld
Human world
Cyberspace
Augmented reality
Virtual architecture, data and image superposition, marketing, social and other information. Huge opportunities, but that also means interest from other industries with different agendas, such as Google, Microsoft, eBay or Apple, or government organisations…..
Active contact lensPearson 1991
Gaze direction sensor
MicromirrorInductive power supply
Processing
Comms & ctrl
Laser Laser
Laser· Resolution limited by the eye· Allows natural distance
perception· Tiny environmental footprint
Laser
Focusing
Micromirror
Retina
LasersGaze direction sensor
Diamond substrate
Physical world Virtual worlds
Duality Markets
Augmented reality interfaces
Physical world content Virtual content
Context and position dependent data
Business, social, government and personal apps
Personalised overlay
BusinessSocial
Buildings
PersonalVirtual
Politics and socialisation
Country A
Country B
Country C
Cybercommunity X
Cybercommunity Y
Cybercommunity Z
Real World Cyberspace
Future power will be web based
Young people in one country are more like young people in another than older people in their own
As networks become more mature non-geographic politics will start to dominate
People will belong to a number of network tribes and will identify other members via their augmented reality
Digital bubble
Digital bubbles change how people network and socialise by enabling intelligent exchange of appropriate information and filtering out junk.
Works well with QR codes or image recognition too
Digital mirror, active make-up
Digital mirror lets you customise virtual appearance.
Can use with active makeup, or clothes auras to change look all through the day
Electronic money 2020Today’s Oyster Card is just the beginning
Conditional cash
Vouchers
Loyalty points
Time based value cash
IOUs
Assigned cash
Play money
Playground economy
Safe pocket money
Family token systems
Favours
LETS
Babysitting tokens
Club/society currency
Neighbourhood currency
Information brokerage
Agent/robot economy
Analog payments
Tax free/tax paid
Volatile cash
Corporate cash
Micro/nanopayments
Negotiable cash
Single Global Currency
Credit
Guaranteed/qualified cash
Algorithmic cash
Internal currency
Intranet cash
Forward dated cash
Celebrity cash
Collectable cash
Hyperlinked cash
Multimedia cash
Personalised cash
Aesthetic cash
Ethical cash
Convergence
NBIC Convergence(nano-bio-info-cogno)
Nanotech gives us tiny devices
Tiny sensors help neuroscience figure out how the mind works
Insights from neuroscience feed into machine intelligence
Improving machine intelligence accelerates R&D in every sphere
Biotech and IT advances make body, clothes and machine connectable
TV
IT-side Convergence
Games technology is really key to convergence because it is the focal point for advanced interfaces and display interaction
Phones & tablets
GamesMags
Visors
Tracking
Film
Augmentedreality Profiling
E-inkClothes
Food
Retail
Tiny computers
FXI USB stick sized, 1GHz Arm 9 with 1G RAM, HDTV, WiFi, Bluetooth, microSD slot
Raspberry Pi, £22, Linux, similar chip to iPhone 3G, used with TV like Spectrum
Such small computing devices could easily be integrated into clothing, jewellery or accessories
Data networksClouds, tags, mobiles and sensor networks
Environment will be very rich in processors, tags, data stores, sensors and communicators.
Our clothes and vehicles will also be full of IT capability
Tag
Store
Store
Store
Tag
Tag
Tag
Tag
Store
Processing
Processing
Processing
SensorSensor
Sensor
Sensor
Sensor
Sensor
Comms
Comms
Comms
Digital airPublic service data
Digital bubbles
Advertising Beacons
Positioning services
RFID chips in products
Background data radiation and public information will be ubiquitous, context dependent data will be pulled off the net and from packaging, marketing messages pushed by in-store beacons, and sticky information will brush off and be transmitted person to person down the street
Electronic jewellery
Identification, security
Social status
Digital image augmentation
Communication, data distribution
Sensing
Medical monitoring, alarms
Anyform
Networking
Decoration
Tribal signalling
Digital bubble
Mobile website
Miniaturisation will bring everyday IT down to lapel-pin size. Combinations of devices can monitor and relay a wide variety of data.
19
Permanent layerMid-term layerTransfer layer
Detachable layerWearable layer
Active skin & video tattoos
SkinEpidermis
Dermis
Body adornmentVideo tattoosSmart makeupSmart perfumeryDigital aura
Extra senses, remote monitoring and sensory enhancement
Sensorytranslation
unitInput Output
External sensors
Wearable sensors
Detachable sensors
Implanted sensors
AlarmsTelemetryMonitors
LogsControl systems
Messaging
Audio
Video
Heat or vibration
Pain or pleasure
Magnetic field
Radiation (EM or nuclear)
Magnetic field
Temperature
Location
Proximity
Sound
Chemical or microbiological presence
Data
Pollutants
3d Printing, local manufacture
3d printing can make complex accessories that can contain lots of IT or mechanical functionality as well as look nice
Security
Bypassing web restrictions: Jewellery nets
Direct inter-device networking will become an important alternative internet platform. This also moves the customer away from mobile nets, and device manufacturers take share.
Wireless LAN link to web and between clusters
Wireless links
Security threats
MFP
Smart dust
Internal signals indicate every piece of data that is processed by MFP. Signals can be captured and stored in smart dust until agent walks past, then silently transmitted to his memory stick.
Agent
Espionage35nm tech means 200M transistors/mm2.
Small specks of smart dust can be concealed anywheree.g. sand or dirt, passed on by handshake, or dust settling from the air,
in food, seeds, gravel or in clothes, stick to shoes. Air conditioning is new security risk
Even coins or banknotes could be used to hide devices to monitor And record and transmit activity
Apple 2 computers: 0.015mmAnt: 10mm
Computer crime
· Evolution techniques work just as well for criminal software
· Can make use of distributed computing platform, with or without permission
· Emergence encoded software· Fraud engines using ecosystem adaptation· Blackmail engines, using surveillance
Kill Poor Performers
Test in Limited Environment
Select Fittest
Replicate with Errors
AI Development
Ultra-simple computing
CoreH/W
ROM
FRAM
Disk
Net
Outer core
Everyday
Special
Occasional
Using simple chips and techniques wherever possible, IT can be made more secure, reliable, cheap, and compact, even fitting in very tiny devices.
Gel computing
Large number of capsules suspended in gel using free-space comms to link up to form ad-hoc circuitry
Sensor
PowerProcessing
comms
LEDRx
Storage
Sensor
Sensing
Single core
Dual core
Quad core
Massively multiple core-multiple chip
Digital
Digital & Analog
Self-organisation used with AI-controlled evolution to build circuit/function libraries and eventually strong AI
48 core
OB1 - optical brain mk1A conscious computer
1 trillion neurons in 100ml gel1 billion times more powerful than brain, with up to 2 million emotions & unlimited sensesCould be fully sentientCould be benign or maliciousCan be linked to other devices via the net
Optical ‘hormone’
Gel
Sensory stimulus
sensoryencoding
playback
Sensoryecho Internal sensing
neural vortexgeneration
Neuralresponse
Neural interferenceprocessing vortex
Care economy businesses
Value ofphysical/intellectualWork
Value of community &social wellbeing
timeMore face to face interaction, needing emotional and ‘human’ skills.Trust will be a very key factor and requires better integration.Companies need to adapt to work more closely with the community.
Revaluation of human skills
Today, people often work as smart machines
Tomorrow, they will have to focus on interpersonal skills
Interpersonal skills increase as people age, allowing older people to do useful work
We will see more status for women too
Economic change
Part-reversal of globalisation
2010 2015 2020 2025
Global arrangements for most things, but work and consumption patterns will be increasingly localised
Many things are being globalised
Machine intelligence changes nature of work.
Carbon economics dictates less global transportation
Strong potential for virus outbreaks forcing travel constraints
Economic protectionism and regionalisation returns
Winners and losers
Europe, esp EurozoneJapanUSA
Middle EastSome African countries
Importance of rare earths and lithium
BrazilRussiaIndia
IndonesiaChina
South AfricaKazakhstan
CybernationsParallel
governance
Business will change faster
You should not focus on being best-in-class. You need agility.
Optimisation is only a good strategy in a stable environment.
Risk taking pays dividends in periods of rapid change
Reorganisation and restructuring
Much wider variety of ad-hoc business models with more freelancers, coops and virtual companies
Some kinds of companies need lots of capital or infrastructure, others can more easily be decomposed and restructured. But none are invulnerable to change.
Sustainability
IT progress gives us more for less
But it isn’t over yet!!!
Rapid IT obsolescence
Device size and power consumption
Number of devices
timeThe faster we go through the obsolescence cycle, the smaller the overall environmental impact.
Impact = device population x device impact
fast
slow
www.futurizon.com
twitter.com/timeguide
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