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Dr Mark Cresswell
FOLLOWED BY: Solar Practical
Solar and Milankovitch Forcing
69EG5513 – Climate & Climate Change
Lecture Topics• Introduction – a brief history of time
• Natural – Milankovitch cycles
• Natural – Solar Cycles
MPC Material
http://www.ukscience.org
INTRODUCTION
Is this a new phenomenon?
Introduction #1
It is known that our climate has experienced warmer and cooler phases throughout the past
Sea levels regarded as rising at an “alarming” rate today have been considerably higher in the past
Introduction #2• Proxy reconstructions for the climate of the
Quaternary Period are considerably more abundant and reliable than for earlier periods
• The Quaternary spans the last 2My of Earth history and is separated into two Epochs, the Pleistocene (2My to 10Ky) and the Holocene (10Ky to present)
Introduction #3• Although deglaciation had been taking place
for at least 4,000 years, a rapid deterioration (cooling) in climate occurred at about 10 to 11Ky
• This event is known as the Younger Dryas Cooling. The North Atlantic polar front readvanced far southward to approximately 45°N (only 5 or 10° north of the glacial maximum position)
Introduction #4
Holocene thermal maximum: 6 to 7 thousand years ago
Introduction #5• Quantitative estimates of mid-Holocene
warmth suggest that the Earth was perhaps 1 or 2°C warmer than today
• Most of this warmth may primarily represent seasonal (summer) warmth rather than year-round warmth
Introduction #6• Beginning about 1450 A.D. there was a
marked return to colder conditions. This interval is often called the Little Ice Age, a term used to describe an epoch of renewed glacial advance
Is this a new phenomenon?
MILANKOVITCH CYCLES
Milankovitch Cycles #1• The distance between the Earth and Sun
changes for a variety of reasons as does the quantity of solar energy reaching Earth
• The Earth follows an elliptical orbit around the Sun. Orbital stretch/shrink ~100,000 yrs
Milankovitch Cycles #2• Milutin Milankovitch (a Serbian
astrophysicist) worked out ways in which the Earth-Sun geometry changed as a function of orbital cycles
Milankovitch Cycles #3
1. Variations in the Earth's orbital eccentricity—the shape of the orbit around the sun.
2. Changes in obliquity—changes in the angle that Earth's axis makes with the plane of Earth's orbit
3. Precession—the change in the direction of the Earth's axis of rotation, i.e., the axis of rotation behaves like the spin axis of a top that is winding down; hence it traces a circle on the celestial sphere over a period of time
Milankovitch Cycles:
Milankovitch Cycles #4
Illustration of ECCENTRICITY
Milankovitch Cycles #5
Illustration of OBLIQUITY
Milankovitch Cycles #6
Illustration of PRECESSION OF THE EQUINOXES
Milankovitch Cycles #7
Calculated Orbital Variation
SOLAR CYCLES
Solar Cycles #1• There is really no such thing as a “solar
constant”
• We already know that orbital effects can change the quantity of solar radiation reaching the Earth
• The Sun generates variable quantities of energy due to its own internal variability
• Solar activity is know to have cycles – with a periodicity of about 11 years
The 11 year solar cycle
Solar Cycles #2The 11 year solar cycle
Historical overview of solar sunspot cycles
Solar Cycles #3The 11 year solar cycle
Historical overview of solar sunspot area from 1870s to 2000
Solar Cycles #4• As well as sunspot activity, the Sun can
interact with our atmosphere by generating solar flares leading to a powerful solar “storm” (enhanced solar wind)
• Solar flares can damage satellites, and can also affect the Van Allen belts producing Aurora (Northern Lights)
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are geomagnetic disturbances on the Sun surface that generates the Aurora Borealis.
Solar Cycles #5
Other Sources of Variability • Urban heat island
• Ocean circulation
• Geothermal activity
• Tectonic plate movement
Any questions?
Practical: Solar cycle variability