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Population growth: where will pressure be most profound?
School Planning, Design and Construction Conference
25 October 2016
Pete Goss, School Education Program Director
[email protected] @peter_goss
2
Who we are
Grattan Institute is an independent think tank dedicated to developing high
quality public policy for Australia’s future.
• Independent: We take the perspective of the Australian public interest
rather than any interest group
• Rigorous: We obtain the best available evidence from our own data
analysis and from published work
• Practical: We are practical in articulating what governments should do to
improve the lives of all Australians
3
Contents
National overview
State deep dive: Victoria
Other states
So what?
4
Contents
National overview
State deep dive: Victoria
Other states
So what?
5
School age populations are growing across
Australia
Source: The Conversation, January 22 2016, based on Grattan analysis of planning department data (NSW, Vic, Qld, WA) and ABS (other states)
https://theconversation.com/should-you-worry-about-a-schools-shortage-it-really-depends-on-where-you-live-53296
6
Up to 800 new schools are needed by 2026
0
200
400
600
800
NSW Vic Qld WA SA Tas ACT NT
#
Estimated number of new schools needed by 2026, by jurisdiction
Source: Grattan analysis of planning department data (NSW, Vic, Qld, WA) and ABS (other states)
7
Rates of growth are very uneven across states
14.4
19.220.4
16.8
11.7
2.8
23.3
16.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
NSW Vic Qld WA SA Tas ACT NT
%
Projected increase in school age population, 2016 - 2026, by jurisdiction
Source: Grattan analysis of planning department data (NSW, Vic, Qld, WA) and ABS population projections (other states)
8
But the real story is local variability
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
50
10
0
15
0
20
0
250
30
0
35
0
40
0%
LGA Rank
Projected growth in school age students 2016 – 2026, ranked by LGA
(NSW, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia)
Source: Grattan analysis of planning department data
9
Contents
National overview
State deep dive: Victoria
Other states
So what?
10
Victoria: Growth is a patchwork quilt . . .
Source: The Age, 17 January 2016, based on Grattan analysis of Victoria in Future 2015
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/schools-shortage-crisis-hits-victoria-20160113-gm4wzq
11
. . . even within (greater) Melbourne
Source: The Age, 17 January 2016, based on Grattan analysis of Victoria in Future 2015
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/schools-shortage-crisis-hits-victoria-20160113-gm4wzq
12
Local government areas face varied challenges
At least five different types of Local Government Areas in Victoria,
each with varied challenges from demographic changes:
• Inner city
• Outer growth corridors
• Middle ring suburbs
• Regional cities
• Other regional areas
13
(1) Inner city
Location Growth rates Key issues
Inner city High to very high • Land is scarce, expensive
• Existing school blocks sub-scale
• Living patterns are changing
Outer growth
corridors
High to very high • Sheer numbers
• Land is cheap, location is key
• Beating heart of community
Middle ring
suburbs
Variable, localised • Restrictive planning, NIMBY-ism
• Strong schools affect real estate
Regional
cities
Depends on access
to Melbourne
• Movement off the land into town
• But every city has its own story
Other regional
areas
Low growth thru to
strongly negative
(except sea change)
• How to thrive, not just survive,
with shrinking enrolments
• School closures
14
Inner city: high growth, expensive land
Melbourne: 63%
Port Phillip: 39%Stonnington: 30%
Maribyrnong: 56%
Yarra: 52%
Source: The Age, 17 January 2016, based on Grattan analysis of Victoria in Future 2015
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/schools-shortage-crisis-hits-victoria-20160113-gm4wzq
15
Fisherman’s Bend: 80,000 people, no schools
16
(2) Outer growth corridors
Location Growth rates Key issues
Inner city High to very high • Land is scarce, expensive
• Existing school blocks sub-scale
• Living patterns are changing
Outer growth
corridors
High to very high • Sheer numbers
• Land is cheap, location is key
• Beating heart of community
Middle ring
suburbs
Variable, localised • Restrictive planning, NIMBY-ism
• Strong schools affect real estate
Regional
cities
Depends on access
to Melbourne
• Movement off the land into town
• But every city has its own story
Other regional
areas
Low growth thru to
strongly negative
(except sea change)
• How to thrive, not just survive,
with shrinking enrolments
• School closures
17
The first challenge in Melbourne’s outer growth
corridors is the sheer scale of growth
- 10,000 20,000 30,000
Stonnington
Port Phillip
Darebin
Ballarat
Yarra
Mitchell
Greater Geelong
Greater Dandenong
Maribyrnong
Moreland
Melbourne
Cardinia
Hume
Casey
Melton
Whittlesea
Wyndham
New students
Outer growthcorridor
Inner metro
Source: Grattan analysis of Victoria in Future 2015
Local government area by projected student population growth, 2016-2026
A new prep class born
every week; 100 extra
classrooms needed
every year for a decade
18
Six LGA’s account for 54% of total growth
Melton:
9% of extra students
58% growth in 10y
Wyndham:
15% of extra students
67% growth in 10y
Hume:
6% of extra students
33% growth in 10y
Whittlesea:
10% of extra students
57% growth in 10y
Cardinia:
6% of extra students
58% growth in 10y
Casey:
8% of extra students
25% growth in 10y
19
Alamanda K-9 College, Point Cook (Wyndham)
• Opened in 2013 with ~400 students; ~1,675 in 2016; ~2,000 next year
• 310 Prep students in 2016 (~15 classes!)
• 60 portable classrooms
• Four timetables, with staggered lunch breaks and recess
• No bells (too disruptive)
Source: MySchool, http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/record-one-million-students-to-squeeze-into-victorian-schools-20161010-gryxtx.html
20
(3) Middle ring suburbs
Location Growth rates Key issues
Inner city High to very high • Land is scarce, expensive
• Existing school blocks sub-scale
• Living patterns are changing
Outer growth
corridors
High to very high • Sheer numbers
• Land is cheap, location is key
• Beating heart of community
Middle ring
suburbs
Variable, localised • Restrictive planning, NIMBY-ism
• Strong schools affect real estate
Regional
cities
Depends on access
to Melbourne
• Movement off the land into town
• But every city has its own story
Other regional
areas
Low growth thru to
strongly negative
(except sea change)
• How to thrive, not just survive,
with shrinking enrolments
• School closures
21
Middle ring suburbs: highly localised growth
Darebin: 20%
Bayside: -7%
Moreland: 28%
Whitehorse: 1%
Boroondara: -6%
Source: The Age, 17 January 2016, based on Grattan analysis of Victoria in Future 2015
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/schools-shortage-crisis-hits-victoria-20160113-gm4wzq
22
(4) Regional cities
Location Growth rates Key issues
Inner city High to very high • Land is scarce, expensive
• Existing school blocks sub-scale
• Living patterns are changing
Outer growth
corridors
High to very high • Sheer numbers
• Land is cheap, location is key
• Beating heart of community
Middle ring
suburbs
Variable, localised • Restrictive planning, NIMBY-ism
• Strong schools affect real estate
Regional
cities
Depends on access
to Melbourne
• Movement off the land into town
• But every city has its own story
Other regional
areas
Low growth thru to
strongly negative
• How to thrive, not just survive
• School closures
23
(5) Other regional areas
Location Growth rates Key issues
Inner city High to very high • Land is scarce, expensive
• Existing school blocks sub-scale
• Living patterns are changing
Outer growth
corridors
High to very high • Sheer numbers
• Land is cheap, location is key
• Beating heart of community
Middle ring
suburbs
Variable, localised • Restrictive planning, NIMBY-ism
• Strong schools affect real estate
Regional
cities
Depends on access
to Melbourne
• Movement off the land into town
• But every city has its own story
Other regional
areas
Low growth thru to
strongly negative
(except sea change)
• How to thrive, not just survive,
with shrinking enrolments
• School closures
24
Many regional areas are shrinking as part of a
move off the land to regional towns
Buloke: -31%
Yarriambiack: -22%
BUT sea change:
Bass Coast: 33%
Surf Coast: 20%
Towong: -18%
(But Wodonga +19%)
Towong: -18%
(But Ballarat +23%)
Loddon: -17%
(But Bendigo +17%)
25
Very diverse challenges: summary
Location Growth rates Key issues
Inner city High to very high • Land is scarce, expensive
• Existing school blocks sub-scale
• Living patterns are changing
Outer growth
corridors
High to very high • Sheer numbers
• Land is cheap, location is key
• Beating heart of community
Middle ring
suburbs
Variable, localised • Restrictive planning, NIMBY-ism
• Strong schools affect real estate
Regional
cities
Depends on access
to Melbourne
• Movement off the land into town
• But every city has its own story
Other regional
areas
Low growth thru to
strongly negative
(except sea change)
• How to thrive, not just survive,
with shrinking enrolments
• School closures
26
Community response:
Our children, our schools
The alliance is currently comprised of the following groups:
Beaumaris School Community Group (BSCG)
A new school for Bannockburn District
High School for Coburg (HSC)
Doreen and Mernda Secondary School Alliance
Friends of Elwood College
Friends of Kyneton Education (FoKE)
Nunawading Primary School Site Preservation Group Inc
Oakleigh Ward Local Secondary School (OWLSS)
High School for Preston
Point Cook Action Group
Public Education Group (PGR)
Reopen Our Schools (Banyule City)
Richmond High School Choices (RHSC)
Secondary Education for Seddon, Kingsville & Yarraville (SKY High)
Restore Strathmore Heights’ School Zones
TwoSchoolsNow (Port Phillip and Southbank)
Docklands Community Forum
Fishermans Bend Network
Northern Mallee School Council Presidents Group
Keysborough South Action Group
Save Former Calder Rise Primary School
Ballert Mooroop Working Group (Glenroy)
Williams Landing Community & Residents
North Melbourne Primary School Parents and Carers
Your Cheltenham School
City Schools 4 City Kids – Melbourne
School for Prahran
27
Official response 1: denial and data control
Source: The Age, 5 December 2013, http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/spending-on-state-school-buildings-lowest-in-a-decade-20131205-2ytds.html
“The $200 million budget in 2012 was the lowest since
2003, despite continuous, 15-year growth in
Melbourne's public school attendance.”
“About 5100
portables have
been crammed on
to school ovals
and open spaces
to accommodate
extra numbers.”
28
Official response 2: portables, vertical schools
Source: Victorian School Building Authority (for South Melbourne Ferrars Street image)
29
Official response 3:
Victorian School Building Authority (April 2016)
30
Why has this been such a shock?
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051
Students(000s)
Victoria’s school age population (ages 5-17), 1971 -- 2051
Notes: Population projection Series B used to estimate future school age population
Source: ABS
31
Contents
National overview
State deep dive: Victoria
Other states
So what?
32
Growth rates vary greatly among LGA’s in NSW
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130
%
LGA rank
Average = 14.4%
Projected growth in school age students 2016 – 2026, ranked by LGA
Source: Grattan analysis of NSW Department of Planning and Environment Population Projections (data accessed Dec 2015)
33
The top ten LGA’s by enrolment growth are all
in Greater Western Sydney
- 10,000 20,000
Ryde
Ku-ring-gai
Canterbury
Randwick
Sutherland Shire
Sydney
Fairfield
Auburn
Bankstown
Penrith
Campbelltown
Parramatta
Camden
The Hills Shire
Liverpool
Blacktown
New students
Greater Western Sydney
Inner metro
Other metro
Local government area* by projected student population growth, 2016-2026
Note: Data uses 2015 classification of Local Government Areas
Source: Grattan analysis of NSW Department of Planning and Environment Population Projections (data accessed Dec 2015)
34
Sydney’s North Shore is also facing challenges
“… schools planning for the
North Shore appeared to use
the assumption that only 4% of
local unit-dwelling households
had children, when Australian
Bureau of Statistics figures
showed the number was 29%.”
Schoolyard crush, The Monthly
Source: https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2015/february/1422709200/ceridwen-dovey/schoolyard-crush
“…no provision for necessary
education infrastructure. This
strategy called for 44,000 new
residential dwellings on the
lower North Shore and in the
nearby Ryde area alone…”
35
Queensland growth is dominated by the south-
east corner, followed by four regional cities
Gold CoastIpswich Logan Brisbane Moreton
Bay
SC
Townsville
Cairns
Gladstone
Mackay
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
LGA growth rate by projected student population growth, 2016-2026
Source: Grattan analysis of population projections from Queensland Government Statistician’s Office, 2015
120,000 new students, 71% of total 26,000 new students, 15% of total
Greenfield suburbs
east of Ipswich e.g.
Springfield Lakes
36
Growth in WA is still driven by outer suburbs
and coastal growth south of Perth
CITY OF SWAN
CITY OF WANNEROO
SHIRE OF MUNDARING
CITY OF ARMADALE
SHIRE OF KALAMUNDA
CITY OF ROCKINGHAM
CITY OF COCKBURN
CITY OF GOSNELLS
TOWN OF KWINANA
CITY OF STIRLING
CITY OFJOONDALUP
CITY OFMELVILLE
CITY OFCANNING
CITY OFBELMONT
CITY OFBAYS-WATER
CITY OFCANNING
TOWN OF CAMBRIDGE
CITY OFFREMANTLE
CITY OFSOUTHPERTH
Perth
Kwinana
Yanchep
Armadale
Fremantle
Mundaring
Rockingham
Bullsbrook
PERTH
Western Australia
0 10 205
kmMAP 1:
PERTH METRO REGIONKEY FEATURES
Datum and Projection Information
Vertical Datum: Australian Height
Datum (AHD)
Horizontal Datum: Geocentric Datum of
Australia 94
Projection: MGA 94 Zone 50
Spheroid: Australian National Spheroid
Project Information
Client: Regional Development and Lands
Map Author: Aidan Belouardi
Filepath: J:\gisprojects\Project\D_Series\
D1101\0038_Pilbara_Director\0007 DLGRD Request - Alex Ballie\Local_
Government_Area_Maps\mxd\Filename: Map01-Perth_Metro-
Legend-A4.mxdCompletion Date: 16/02/2010
LGA Boundaries
Australian Coastline
Towns
Population > 5000
500 < Population < 5000
Population < 500
Regions
Gascoyne
Goldfields-Esperance
Great Southern
Kimberley
Midwest
Peel
Perth
Pilbara
South West
Wheatbelt
The purpose of this map is to display the Local Government Area boundaries for the Perth Metropolitan Region.
6
7
89
10
1112
35
1. Town of Bassendean
2. Town of Victoria Park3. City of Perth
4. Town of Vincent
5. City of Subiaco
6. City of Nedlands
7. Town of Claremont
8. Town of Cottesloe
9. Shire of Peppermint Grove
10. Town of Mosman Park
11. City of Fremantle
12. Town of East Fremantle
4
2
1
This map is a product of the Department of Water(Spatial Services), and was printed on 10/03/2010.
This map was produced with the intent that it be used for display purposes, at the scale of 1:600,000
when printing at A4.
While the Department of Water has made allreasonable efforts to ensure the accuracy of this data,
the department accepts no responsibility for anyinaccuracies and persons relying on this data do so
at their own risk.
DATA DICTIONARY
DATASET SOURCE DATE
LGA Boundaries Landgate March 2009
Towns Landgate December 2006
Wanneroo
+11,900
(33%)
Perth
+900
(65%)Cockburn
+3,800
(21%)
Kwinana
+2,500
(36%) Armadale
+3,900
(29%)Rockingham
+6,900
(30%)
Swan
+6,900
(28%)
Joondalup
+3,000
(10%)
Gosnells
+3,000
(14%)
Mandurah +4,700 29%
Plus growth stretching 200km along
the coast south of Perth
37
Contents
National overview
State deep dive: Victoria
Other states
So what?
38
Does over-crowding matter?
One expert’s view
Problems created by over-crowded classrooms:
• Not enough of the teacher to go around
• Over-crowding increases classroom discipline issues
• Struggling students fall further behind
• Standardized test scores suffer
• Overall noise level is increased
• Teacher stress is increased often leading to teacher burn-out
• Less access to equipment and technology
• Lack of personal connections
Source: http://teaching.about.com/od/Information-For-Teachers/fl/Teaching-in-an-Overcrowded-Classroom.htm
39
Does over-crowding matter?
Actually seems to be very little robust research
…there is some evidence…that overcrowding can have an adverse
impact on learning.
A study of overcrowded schools in New York City found that students
in such schools scored significantly lower on both mathematics and
reading exams than did similar students…In addition, when asked,
students and teachers in overcrowded schools agreed that
overcrowding negatively affected both classroom activities and
instructional techniques. (Rivera-Batiz and Marti, 1995)
Corcoran et al. (1988) found that overcrowding and heavy teacher
workloads created stressful working conditions for teachers and led to
higher teacher absenteeism.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Education
Source: http://frontiersacademy.org/do-crowded-classrooms-affect-learning/
40
Given the uncertainty, we must use the next
decade to learn what works and what does not
Options to consider:
• Staggered start times
• ‘Double-bunking’
• Online schools (BUT! Evidence from U.S. suggests terrible outcomes)
• Reducing ‘white flight’
• Community facilities in schools
• Vertical schools
• Flexible design
• …
We must get more robust evidence about what works best to enhance
learning, because population growth is not going away soon…