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October 30, 2015 ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Result Update Margin improvement continues despite headwinds Revenues grew 11.2% YoY to | 3989.0 crore (I-direct estimate: | 3868.2 crore) mainly due to strong growth in developed market sales. US sales grew 29.9% to | 1856.3 crore (I-direct estimate: | 1797.3 crore) due to Habitrol acquisition, new products launches and market share gain EBITDA margins increased 592 bps YoY to 29.4% (against I-direct estimate: 26.3%) mainly due to lower raw material and SG&A expenses as percentage of sales. EBITDA increased 39.2% to | 1172.4 crore against I-direct estimate of | 1015.4 crore Net profit increased 25.7% YoY to | 721.9 crore (I-direct estimate: | 650.5 crore). The beat was due to a better operational performance Global generics to piggyback on strong, sustainable US traction Global generics (GG) segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.4% in FY15-18E driven by strong US traction, which is likely to grow at a CAGR of ~21% during the same period. DRL has developed a knack for exclusivity/FTF launches on a fairly continuous basis in the US. We expect this trend to continue further but the focus has now shifted to more unique launches such as OTC, complex generics, controlled releases, etc. The US traction is also likely to nullify the European slowdown. The US pipeline includes 227 filed ANDAs including 76 pending approvals. Russia CIS becomes volatile, India to provide more stability Global generics (ex US, Europe) is likely to grow at a steady CAGR of ~8% in FY15-18E driven by growth in India as the Russian performance remains volatile. These two markets are more or less identical in nature (branded generics and OTC) with similar growth potential and similar kinds of risks. DRL is well versed with the dynamics in Russia by virtue of being an early mover. However, the recent currency volatility and political unrest have caused disturbances in an otherwise safe market for the company. For India, growth is expected to be largely from launches in the oncology and biosimilars space, UCB like acquisitions besides an improvement in productivity. Portfolio realignment eminent We envisage a fall in share of low margin/high risk segments such as PSAI and RoW Generics, going ahead. Thus, growth in FY15-18E is likely to emanate from more productive and sustainable segments such as the US and India. Similarly, in terms of product offering, we envisage more launches in the fields of injectables, OTC, complex/limited competition products and biosimilars, besides legacy generics. US franchisee looks promising; Srikakulam resolution holds key US and India together hold the key for global generics growth and, for that matter, DRL’s overall growth. Among them, US is the main catalyst with a pending product portfolio of 76 ANDAs, which include 50 Para IVs and 18 FTFs. The company is investing heavily in R&D to bring more complex generics and limited competition products mainly from injectable category, which is likely to take care of sustained US growth for the next two or three years. India is also showing promising growth with a recalibrated approach and the recent acquisition (UCB’s India business) bodes well for the future. Russia, RoW and the PSAI segments, however, continue to pose challenges for being lumpy and volatile. However their slowdown can be beneficial from margin improvement point of view. We have ascribed a target of | 5000 based on 22x FY18E EPS of | 227.4. Rating matrix Rating : Buy Target : | 5000 Target Period : 12-15 months Potential Upside : 19% What’s Changed? Target Changed from | 4600 to | 5000 EPS FY16E Changed from | 159.9 to 164.0 EPS FY17E Changing from | 191.6 to | 190.8 EPS FY18E Introducing at | 227.3 Rating Unchanged Quarterly Performance Q2FY16 Q2FY15 YoY (%) Q1FY16 QoQ (%) Revenue 3,989.0 3,587.8 11.2 3,757.8 6.2 EBITDA 1,139.2 842.2 35.3 998.0 14.1 EBITDA (%) 28.6 23.5 508.4 26.6 200.0 Net Profit 721.9 574.1 25.7 625.7 15.4 Key Financials (|crore) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Revenues 14818.9 16311.7 18664.4 21542.4 EBITDA 3482.7 4428.3 5086.1 5937.1 Adjusted PAT 2198.6 2794.3 3250.8 3872.9 EPS (Adjusted) 129.0 164.0 190.8 227.3 Valuation summary FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E PE (x) 32.4 25.5 22.0 18.4 Target PE (x) 38.8 30.5 26.2 22.0 EV to EBITDA (x) 20.5 15.8 13.4 11.0 Price to book (x) 7.3 5.7 4.5 3.6 RoNW (%) 22.3 22.1 20.5 19.6 RoCE (%) 18.8 21.1 21.5 22.0 Stock data Particular Market Capitalisation Debt (FY15) Cash & cash equivalents (FY15) EV 52 week H/L 4383/3010 Equity capital | 85.2 crore Face value | 5 | 73551 crore Amount | 71807 crore | 3617 crore | 1872 crore Price performance (%) 1M 3M 6M 1Y Dr Reddy's Labs 3.4 13.7 24.8 38.6 Sun Pharma 3.6 5.9 -6.5 5.8 Lupin -4.7 17.1 10.1 41.6 Dr Reddy’s Laboratories (DRREDD) | 4221 Research Analyst Siddhant Khandekar [email protected] Mitesh Shah [email protected] Nandan Kamat [email protected]
Transcript
Page 1: Dr Reddy’s Laboratories (DRREDD)content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_DrReddys_Q2FY16.pdf · ~8% in FY15-18E driven by growth in India as the Russian performance remains volatile.

October 30, 2015

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Result Update

Margin improvement continues despite headwinds • Revenues grew 11.2% YoY to | 3989.0 crore (I-direct estimate:

| 3868.2 crore) mainly due to strong growth in developed market sales. US sales grew 29.9% to | 1856.3 crore (I-direct estimate: | 1797.3 crore) due to Habitrol acquisition, new products launches and market share gain

• EBITDA margins increased 592 bps YoY to 29.4% (against I-direct estimate: 26.3%) mainly due to lower raw material and SG&A expenses as percentage of sales. EBITDA increased 39.2% to | 1172.4 crore against I-direct estimate of | 1015.4 crore

• Net profit increased 25.7% YoY to | 721.9 crore (I-direct estimate: | 650.5 crore). The beat was due to a better operational performance

Global generics to piggyback on strong, sustainable US traction Global generics (GG) segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.4% in FY15-18E driven by strong US traction, which is likely to grow at a CAGR of ~21% during the same period. DRL has developed a knack for exclusivity/FTF launches on a fairly continuous basis in the US. We expect this trend to continue further but the focus has now shifted to more unique launches such as OTC, complex generics, controlled releases, etc. The US traction is also likely to nullify the European slowdown. The US pipeline includes 227 filed ANDAs including 76 pending approvals. Russia CIS becomes volatile, India to provide more stability Global generics (ex US, Europe) is likely to grow at a steady CAGR of ~8% in FY15-18E driven by growth in India as the Russian performance remains volatile. These two markets are more or less identical in nature (branded generics and OTC) with similar growth potential and similar kinds of risks. DRL is well versed with the dynamics in Russia by virtue of being an early mover. However, the recent currency volatility and political unrest have caused disturbances in an otherwise safe market for the company. For India, growth is expected to be largely from launches in the oncology and biosimilars space, UCB like acquisitions besides an improvement in productivity. Portfolio realignment eminent We envisage a fall in share of low margin/high risk segments such as PSAI and RoW Generics, going ahead. Thus, growth in FY15-18E is likely to emanate from more productive and sustainable segments such as the US and India. Similarly, in terms of product offering, we envisage more launches in the fields of injectables, OTC, complex/limited competition products and biosimilars, besides legacy generics. US franchisee looks promising; Srikakulam resolution holds key US and India together hold the key for global generics growth and, for that matter, DRL’s overall growth. Among them, US is the main catalyst with a pending product portfolio of 76 ANDAs, which include 50 Para IVs and 18 FTFs. The company is investing heavily in R&D to bring more complex generics and limited competition products mainly from injectable category, which is likely to take care of sustained US growth for the next two or three years. India is also showing promising growth with a recalibrated approach and the recent acquisition (UCB’s India business) bodes well for the future. Russia, RoW and the PSAI segments, however, continue to pose challenges for being lumpy and volatile. However their slowdown can be beneficial from margin improvement point of view. We have ascribed a target of | 5000 based on 22x FY18E EPS of | 227.4.

Rating matrix Rating : Buy

Target : | 5000

Target Period : 12-15 months

Potential Upside : 19%

What’s Changed?

Target Changed from | 4600 to | 5000

EPS FY16E Changed from | 159.9 to 164.0

EPS FY17E Changing from | 191.6 to | 190.8

EPS FY18E Introducing at | 227.3

Rating Unchanged

Quarterly Performance

Q2FY16 Q2FY15 YoY (%) Q1FY16 QoQ (%)Revenue 3,989.0 3,587.8 11.2 3,757.8 6.2EBITDA 1,139.2 842.2 35.3 998.0 14.1EBITDA (%) 28.6 23.5 508.4 26.6 200.0Net Profit 721.9 574.1 25.7 625.7 15.4

Key Financials (|crore) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

Revenues 14818.9 16311.7 18664.4 21542.4

EBITDA 3482.7 4428.3 5086.1 5937.1

Adjusted PAT 2198.6 2794.3 3250.8 3872.9

EPS (Adjusted) 129.0 164.0 190.8 227.3

Valuation summary

FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

PE (x) 32.4 25.5 22.0 18.4

Target PE (x) 38.8 30.5 26.2 22.0

EV to EBITDA (x) 20.5 15.8 13.4 11.0

Price to book (x) 7.3 5.7 4.5 3.6

RoNW (%) 22.3 22.1 20.5 19.6

RoCE (%) 18.8 21.1 21.5 22.0

Stock data

Particular

Market Capitalisation

Debt (FY15)

Cash & cash equivalents (FY15)

EV

52 week H/L 4383/3010

Equity capital | 85.2 crore

Face value | 5

| 73551 crore

Amount

| 71807 crore

| 3617 crore

| 1872 crore

Price performance (%) 1M 3M 6M 1Y

Dr Reddy's Labs 3.4 13.7 24.8 38.6Sun Pharma 3.6 5.9 -6.5 5.8Lupin -4.7 17.1 10.1 41.6

Dr Reddy’s Laboratories (DRREDD) | 4221

Research Analyst

Siddhant Khandekar [email protected] Mitesh Shah [email protected] Nandan Kamat [email protected]

Page 2: Dr Reddy’s Laboratories (DRREDD)content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_DrReddys_Q2FY16.pdf · ~8% in FY15-18E driven by growth in India as the Russian performance remains volatile.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 2

Variance analysis Q2FY16 Q2FY16E Q2FY15 Q1FY16 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Comments

Revenue 3,989.0 3,868.2 3,587.8 3,757.8 11.2 6.2 YoY growth was on account of strong US base business growth and consolidationof new acquisitions

Raw Material Expenses 1,542.1 1,508.6 1,489.3 1,463.1 3.5 5.4 Sequential Improvement in gross margin on account of better product mix. Global Generic and PASI segments Gross margin were 67.3% and 25.8% respectively

SG&A 859.2 889.7 871.6 870.5 -1.4 -1.3 Improvement in SG&A expenses due to cost control measuresR&D 447.3 464.2 411.3 438.7 8.8 2.0Other (income)/expenses 1.2 -9.7 -26.6 -12.5 -104.5 -109.5EBITDA 1,139.2 1,015.4 842.2 998.0 35.3 14.1EBITDA (%) 28.6 26.3 23.5 26.6 508 bps 200 bps YoY in margin was mainly due to better product mix and lower SG&AFinance (income)/ expenses -11.6 -41.2 -42.1 -21.6 -72.5 -46.5Depreciation 246.6 227.7 195.7 226.8 26.0 8.7Forex & EO -5.6 -5.0 -5.1 -4.9 10.2 14.4PBT 909.8 833.9 693.8 797.8 31.1 14.0

Tax 187.9 183.5 119.6 172.1 57.0 9.2Net Profit 721.9 650.5 574.1 625.7 25.7 15.4 YoY growth mainly in sync with EBITDA which is partially impacted by higher

taxation and lower financial incomeKey MetricsUS 1,856.3 1,797.3 1,429.3 1,851.5 29.9 0.3 Growth was mainly due to consolidation of Habetrol business and strong base

business growthEurope 212.4 193.6 143.4 191.2 48.1 11.1 Sharp YoY growth was mainly due to incremental product launches. Beat vis-à-vis

our expectation was mainly due to higher than expected constant currency growth

India 546.4 589.4 479.9 475.6 13.9 14.9 Adjusting for loss due to transport strike the normalized growth was ~20% YoY

Russia & Other CIS 390.0 287.9 479.8 307.8 -18.7 26.7 Registered 11% constant currency growth in Russia. Beat vis-à-vis our expectationwas mainly due to higher than expects constant currency growth

RoW 271.7 265.9 354.5 270.0 -23.4 0.6 YoY growth was impacted due to currency depreciation and decline in Venezuela

PSAI 591.8 671.2 639.2 561.4 -7.4 5.4 De-growth on account of higher captive consumption

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Change in estimates

(| Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change CommentsRevenue 16,469.2 16,311.7 -1.0 18,827.6 18,664.4 -0.9EBITDA 4,249.1 4,428.3 4.2 4,942.2 5,086.1 2.9EBITDA Margin (%) 25.8 27.1 135 bps 26.3 27.3 95 bps Increase in estimates on account of improvement in product mix and SG&A expenses

PAT 2,628.2 2,814.8 7.1 3,254.4 3,270.8 0.5 Increase mainly in Sync with EBITDAEPS (|) 154.3 165.2 7.1 191.0 191.9 0.5

FY16E FY17E

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Assumptions

Comments(| crore) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17EUS 5,530.3 6,473.4 7,760.0 9,343.0 7,830.0 9,411.0Europe 877.0 945.2 955.8 974.9 811.0 893.0 Increase in estimates on the back of robust Q2 sales and incremental product

launchesIndia 1,571.3 1,787.0 2,140.3 2,498.8 2,183.0 2,614.0Russia & Other CIS 1,981.9 1,771.4 1,390.7 1,529.8 1,361.0 1,429.0RoW 735.9 1,305.7 1,307.9 1,438.7 1,408.0 1,549.0 reduction due to adverse currency movementsPSAI 2,397.4 2,545.7 2,533.0 2,583.6 2,590.0 2,642.0

Current Earlier

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 3: Dr Reddy’s Laboratories (DRREDD)content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_DrReddys_Q2FY16.pdf · ~8% in FY15-18E driven by growth in India as the Russian performance remains volatile.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 3

Company Analysis Established in 1984, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories (DRL) is one of India’s pedigreed players having a firm footing in the US and other export markets with deep rooted product and market knowledge across therapies. Like Cipla, DRL also recognised the importance of having good manufacturing practices (GMP) accreditation in the eighties and eventually got USFDA approval (first of its kind approval for a formulation facility in India) in 1987. The company owns 22 manufacturing facilities and four developing centres across the globe. The facilities have been approved by various agencies like the USFDA, WHO-Geneva, UKMHRA, TGA-Australia, MCC-South Africa, DMA Denmark, Brail ANVISA, among others. Over the years, along with generics, the company also established itself in the field of discovery of new chemical entities (NCEs) but with little success. DRL’s business can be classified into three broad segments- 1) Global Generics (GG), 2) Pharmaceutical Services and Active Ingredients (PSAI) and 3) proprietary products (PP). Global Generics (81% of revenues) includes branded and unbranded prescription and over-the-counter (OTC) products business. It also includes operations of the biologics business. This segment comprises formulation sales to regulated markets of the US, Europe and emerging markets such as Russia/CIS, India and RoW. Pharmaceutical services and active ingredients (17% of the revenues) consist of the active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) business and custom pharmaceutical services (CPS) business. Proprietary Products (PP, 2% of revenues) consists of NCEs, differentiated formulations and dermatology focused specialty business operated through Promius Pharma. DRL is one of the few Indian companies to foray into new drug discovery & development (NDDS) and new chemical entity (NCE) research. The company started research operations in 1992 through a non profit organisation, Dr Reddy’s Research Foundation, which was later merged into the company. Despite being an early entrant, the company is yet to taste success in it. DRL is also the first Indian company to out-license molecules to big pharma companies.

DRL has spent around 8-9% of the turnover on R&D in the last four years but this figure is likely to touch ~12%, going ahead. Beside ANDAs it has also filed 10 new drug applications (NDAs) in the 505 b (2) route that are awaiting approval. We expect revenues to grow at a CAGR of 13.3% to | 21542.4 crore in FY15-18E, on the back of growth in the GG segment, which, in turn, will be driven by the US. The GG is likely to grow at a CAGR of 15.4% to | 18550.8 crore during the same period. On the other hand, the PSAI segment is likely to slow down, mainly on the back of 1) higher internal consumption and 2) pricing pressure/order uncertainty in the API and CPS segments, respectively. The PSAI segment is likely to register a CAGR of 1.2% to | 2635.3 crore in FY15-18E.

Page 4: Dr Reddy’s Laboratories (DRREDD)content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_DrReddys_Q2FY16.pdf · ~8% in FY15-18E driven by growth in India as the Russian performance remains volatile.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 4

Exhibit 1: Revenues to grow at CAGR of ~13% in FY15-18E

7027.7 7469.39673.7

11626.613217.0

14818.916311.7

18664.4

21542.4

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E(|

cro

re)

Revenues

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 2: Geography wise revenue break up (| crore) FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18EUSA 1681.7 1899.6 3188.9 3784.6 5530.3 6473.4 7760.0 9343.0 11398.5Europe 216.0 189.0 151.0 142.0 116.2 115.9 129.2 141.7 155.9India 1015.8 1169.0 1293.1 1456.0 1571.3 1787.0 2140.3 2498.8 2873.6Russia & Other CIS 911.9 1085.8 1326.0 1690.8 1981.9 1771.4 1390.7 1529.8 1682.8RoW 287.3 336.5 390.4 553.3 735.9 1305.7 1307.9 1438.7 1582.5PSAI 2040.4 1964.7 2381.3 3070.2 2397.4 2545.7 2533.0 2583.6 2635.3

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

US remains in sweet spot; banking on capabilities and capacities US contributes more than 98% of North American sales while remaining sales are from Canada. DRL has four USFDA approved formulations facilities including two in the US. The company operates in the prescriptions (Rx) and OTC segments in the US market. Sales are channelled through drug stores, drug wholesalers, health maintenance organisations and pharmacy chains. DRL is also an authorised supplier to the US government. After establishing itself in the US generics space, the focus was shifted to the first to file (FTFs) and AG space. From FY08 onwards DRL started filing limited competitions/niche products like injections, controlled releases and complex generics in the US market in order to reduce the dependence on plain generics. DRL also owns one of the largest over the counter (OTC) product portfolios in the US. DRL has a strong product pipeline of 227 ANDAs with 76 pending approvals. Of these, 50 are Para IVs while 18 have first to file (FTF) status. Beside ANDAs, DRL has also filed 10 NDAs through the 505 b (2) route, which are awaiting approval. We expect the company to file 18-20 ANDAs every year, going ahead. Going by the future pipeline, we expect DRL to launch eight to 10 products per annum, which include at least two or three complex products every year besides plain vanilla generic and FTF opportunities. We expect sales from North America to grow at a CAGR of 20.8% in FY15-18E.

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ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 5

Exhibit 3: North America sales to be driven by robust pipeline

1681.7 1899.6

3188.93784.6

5530.36473.4

7760.0

9343.0

11398.5

0100020003000400050006000700080009000

100001100012000

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E(|

cro

re)

US Sales

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

India: Field force expansion, niche forays to drive growth DRL ranks seventeenth (in terms of market share, AIOCD, September, 2015) with a market share of 2.29%. The acute: chronic ratio is currently at 70:30. Gastrointestinal (GI) is the largest therapeutic group for and the company ranks fifth in this therapeutic group. In many other therapies however it remains a marginal player. The only therapeutic category, where it holds No. 1 position is anti-neoplastics (oncology), which as a therapy remains an important but untapped opportunity. To bolster the domestic franchise, DRL has almost doubled the MR strength from 2250 in FY09 to ~4300 as of today. In order to push domestic growth, DRL has forayed into the complex biosimilars space, which till date has not witnessed much crowding. At the same time, these products have not witnessed the expected traction either. It launched the first biosimilar oncology product Filgrastim under the brand name Grafeel in 2001. Again in 2007, it launched another oncology product Rituximab a biosimilar of Roche’s blockbuster Mabthera under the brand name Reditux. Overall, it has launched four biosimilars till date including these two. The company acquired select portfolio of UCB with revenues of ~| 150 crore in Domestic market for | 800 crore. Exhibit 4: New launches, improved MR productivity to drive domestic growth

1015.81169.0

1293.11456.0

1571.31787.0

2140.3

2498.8

2873.6

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

(| c

rore

)

India

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Another interesting high growth/low penetration space for DRL is oncology. It owns the branded portfolio of products such as Capibine (Capecitabine), Docetere (Docetaxel) and Cytogem (Gemcitabine).We expect Indian formulations to grow at a CAGR of 17.2% in 2015-18E. As

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ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 6

per the management, the NLEM 2011 impact is confined to just ~3-5% of domestic sales.

Russia & CIS- banking on experience; the region off-late has become volatile

DRL was the first Indian entrant in Russia and CIS, dating back to 1992. Early entry into these markets has helped the company to get hold of the changing dynamics of these high potential but notoriously volatile territories. The CIS segment includes countries such as Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Russia comprises ~83% of the overall Russia & CIS (RCIS) segment. DRL has consolidated its position in the Russian market by focusing on select therapies such as pain management, anti-infectives, gastro-intestinal, respiratory, oncology and cardiovascular encompassing prescription, OTC and hospital sales. The top four brands: Nise, Omez, Ketorol and Cetrine constituted ~60% of overall Russian sales. DRL has also struck in-licensing deals with other Indian companies such as Cipla and Torrent. However, due to political unrest and sanctions due to the Ukrainian invasion, the region has lost its safe haven status for DRL besides Rouble volatility. We expect sales from Russia CIS to de-grow at a CAGR of 1.7% in FY15-18E. Exhibit 5: Russia, CIS to witness tempered growth due to regional issues

911.91085.8

1326.0

1690.8

1981.91771.4

1390.71529.8

1682.8

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

(| c

rore

)

Russia & Other CIS

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

R&D cost to increase further Dr Reddy’s is one of the few Indian companies to foray into new drug discovery & development (NDDS) and new chemical entity (NCE) research with a focus to therapies like dermatology, anti-inflammatory and anti-infectives from CVS and diabetics. DRL is also the first Indian company to launch biosimilars in the domestic market. The R&D cost is expected to be ~12% of turnover in FY16 mainly due to higher spend in (i) complex generic including injectables and (ii) biosimilars and novel drug discovery

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ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 7

Exhibit 6: R&D cost to go up due to complex generics and biosimilars

379.3506.0 591.1

767.4

1240.2

1744.81913.8

2239.7

2585.1

5.4

6.86.1 6.6

9.4

11.8 11.7 12.0 12.0

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E(|

cro

re)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

(%)

R&D R&D as % of Sales

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 7: Higher R&D cost likely to restrict improvement in EBITDA margins

1477.1 1677.7

2450.52734.9

3312.7 3482.7

4428.35086.1

5937.1

21.022.5

25.323.5

25.123.5

27.1 27.3 27.6

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

(| c

rore

)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

(%)

EBITDA EBITDA Margins (%)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 8: Net profit to grow at CAGR of 20.8% in FY15-18E on high base

962.3 1103.71420.8

2133.8 2198.6

2794.3

3250.8

3872.9

1667.2

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

(| c

rore

)

Net Profit

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

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ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 8

Exhibit 9: Trends in return ratios

17.1 17.2

20.8

19.2

21.2

18.8

22.424.0

24.7

22.8 22.3 22.1

21.1 21.522.0

27.1

20.519.6

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E(%

)RoCE (%) RoNW (%)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 10: Trends in quarterly financials | Crore Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 YoY (%) QoQ (%)

Total Operating Income 2880.9 2865.2 3340.0 2844.9 3357.5 3533.8 3480.9 3517.5 3587.8 3843.1 3870.4 3757.8 3989.0 11.2 6.2

Raw Material Expenses 1350.4 1376.3 1655.5 1343.0 1410.6 1394.7 1488.7 1433.2 1489.2 1607.9 1748.4 1463.1 1542.1 3.5 5.4

% of Revenues 46.9 48.0 49.6 47.2 42.0 39.5 42.8 40.7 41.5 41.8 45.2 38.9 38.7 -285 bps -28 bps

Gross Profit 1530.5 1488.8 1684.6 1501.9 1946.9 2139.1 1992.2 2084.4 2098.6 2235.2 2122.1 2294.7 2446.9 16.6 6.6

Gross Profit Margins (%) 53.1 52.0 50.4 52.8 58.0 60.5 57.2 59.3 58.5 58.2 54.8 61.1 61.3 285 bps 28 bps

SG&A 663.7 718.9 722.9 718.1 800.4 815.3 835.1 880.7 871.6 857.5 794.5 870.5 859.2 -1.4 -1.3

% of Revenues 23.0 25.1 21.6 25.2 23.8 23.1 24.0 25.0 24.3 22.3 20.5 23.2 21.5 -276 bps -163 bps

R&D 175.8 202.5 232.6 243.0 300.9 297.9 398.5 387.5 411.3 431.6 514.4 438.7 447.3 8.8 2.0

% of Revenues 6.1 7.1 7.0 8.5 9.0 8.4 11.4 11.0 11.5 11.2 13.3 11.7 11.2 -25 bps -46 bps

Other (income)/expenses -39.6 -23.3 -163.2 -37.6 -63.7 -17.7 -22.6 -18.5 -26.6 -34.1 -12.5 -12.5 1.2 -104.5 -109.5

% of Revenues -1.4 -0.8 -4.9 -1.3 -1.9 -0.5 -0.7 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 77 bps 36 bps

Total Expenditure 2219.0 2274.5 2447.9 2266.5 2448.1 2490.1 2699.7 2682.9 2745.6 2862.9 3044.8 2759.8 2849.8 3.8 3.3

% of Revenues 77.0 79.4 73.3 79.7 72.9 70.5 77.6 76.3 76.5 74.5 78.7 73.4 71.4 -508 bps -200 bps

EBITDA 661.8 590.7 892.1 578.5 909.3 1043.7 781.3 834.7 842.2 980.2 825.7 998.0 1139.2 35.3 14.1

EBITDA Margins (%) 23.0 20.6 26.7 20.3 27.1 29.5 22.4 23.7 23.5 25.5 21.3 26.6 28.6 508 bps 200 bps

Depreciation 137.6 138.2 149.4 161.3 173.3 179.3 195.6 187.2 195.7 257.5 213.7 226.8 246.6 26.0 8.7

EBITA 524.2 452.5 742.7 417.2 736.0 864.4 585.7 647.5 646.5 722.7 612.0 771.2 892.6 38.1 15.7

Interest -37.1 9.7 -39.8 7.0 -29.1 -1.5 -16.4 -56.7 -42.1 -101.3 23.3 -21.6 -11.6 -72.5 -46.4

Share of Profit/(loss) 2.8 3.1 2.5 3.6 4.4 4.7 4.8 5.3 5.1 4.7 4.4 4.9 5.6 10.2 14.9

EBT 564.2 446.0 785.0 413.7 769.5 870.6 606.9 709.5 693.7 828.6 593.0 797.7 909.8 31.1 14.1

Total Tax 156.7 82.7 214.1 52.8 79.3 252.1 125.2 150.5 119.6 254.1 74.2 172.1 187.9 57.0 9.2

Tax % 27.8 18.5 27.3 12.8 10.3 29.0 20.6 21.2 17.2 30.7 12.5 21.6 20.7

Net Profit 407.4 363.3 570.9 360.9 690.2 618.5 481.7 559.0 574.1 574.5 518.8 625.6 721.9 25.7 15.4

% of Revenues 14.1 12.7 17.1 12.7 20.6 17.5 13.8 15.9 16.0 14.9 13.4 16.6 18.1

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

SWOT Analysis Strengths - Seasoned player in the US generic space with proven track record. Strong US pipeline with many FTF/limited competition products. Largest Indian player in Russia/CIS Weakness - PSAI and European businesses remain a drag on margins and growth. Higher R&D spends for the future to put pressure on the current margins. The Russian region has also become volatile and unpredictable due to political unrest

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ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 9

Opportunities - The US generics space with scope for complex/limited competition products. Biosimilars space across the globe. Indian franchise is still pretty small for a player of DRL’s calibre. Threats - Increased USFDA scrutiny across the globe regarding cGMP issues and consolidation in the US pharmacy space. Its Srikakulam API plant has recently received Form 483 from the USFDA with 9 observations. Currency depreciation in ROW markets and Russia Conference call highlights

• Forex cash-flow hedges- for the next 18 months in the form of derivatives and loans for ~US$300 million at | 61-65.4/US$ and balance sheet hedges of US$135 million. Ruble hedges of RUB 960 million at | 1.16/RUB and €6 million at | 75.47-77.19/€ maturing over next nine months.

• Apart from Srikakulam API facility, DRL also has pending USFDA form 483 observations in some other plants.

• The company expects normalisation of Russian business from Q4FY16

• The company has signed a deal with government of Venezuela for critical care products. This deal is expected to add new line of business to DRL.

• Tax Rate expected to be around 21% for FY16. • The company expects to launch gGleevec (oncology) in the US

few quarters after Sun Pharma. • DRL was the fourth player to launch gNexium (GI) in US markets.

Annual sales of gNexium for the company are ~US$ 50 million. The company expects to sustain the market share.

• The company entered into Brazil and Columbia markets targeting the Institution sector.

• The company is planning biosimilars in emerging markets. However, it does not expect meaningful contribution from biosimilars in near the term except for Russian market.

• The company plans to file 30% more products than last year with the USFDA.

• The company expects 20% growth in Indian markets ex-one offs in FY16.

• There are three to four niche products yet to receive approval from Srikakulam facility. The company expects one or two products to receive approval in the near term

• Two mega brands of DRL in Russia and CIS went through a price hike. Though, most of the 11% constant currency growth in Q2FY16 was on account of volume growth.

• The company plans site transfers from Srikakulam facility on priority basis

• R&D expenditure on Biosimilar pipelines is ~15% of total R&D expenditure.

• In October 2015, two of DRL’s API customers received ANDA approval rescission letters from USFDA. These ANDAs of customers were approved in January and February 2015, post USFDA inspection of the company’s API facilities. Each rescission letter cites that its API facility was classified as potential OAI (official action indicated) on the date of approval

 

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ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 10

Valuation US and India together hold the key for the global generics growth and, for that matter, DRL’s overall growth. Among them, US is the main catalyst with a pending product portfolio of 76 ANDAs, which include 50 Para IVs and 18 FTFs. The company is investing heavily in the R&D to bring more and complex generics and limited competition products mainly from injectable category, which is likely to take care of sustained US growth for the next two or three years. India is showing promising growth as well with a recalibrated approach and the recent acquisition (UCB’s India business) bodes well for the future. Russia, RoW and PSAI segments, however, continue to pose challenges for being lumpy and volatile. However, their slowdown can be beneficial from a margin improvement point of view. We have ascribed a target price of | 5000 based on 22x FY18E EPS of | 227.4. Exhibit 11: One year forward PE

0

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(|)

Price 19.2x 18.5x 16.5x 12.4x 9.7x [

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 12: One year forward PE of company vs. CNX Pharma

0

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Dr Reddy's CNX Pharma

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 13: Valuation

Revenues Growth Adj. EPS Growth P/E EV/EBITDA RoNW RoCE(| crore) (%) (|) (%) (x) (X) (%) (%)

FY15 14819 27 129.0 32 32.4 20.5 22.3 18.8FY16E 16312 10 164.0 27 25.5 15.8 22.1 21.1FY17E 18664 14 190.8 16 22.0 13.4 20.5 21.5FY18E 21542 15 227.3 19 18.4 11.0 19.6 22.0

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

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ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 11

Company snapshot

Target Price:| 5000

0

1,000

2,000

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6,000

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9

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6

Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Key events Date EventJun-09 Announces a partnership with GSK to develop and market select products across emerging markets outside India. Under the tie-up, GSK will have access to more than

100 branded products of DRLNov-10 Acquires GSK’s US oral penicillin facility and product portfolio. Under the agreement, GSK will transfer rights for Augmentin and Amoxil brands in the US market

Dec-10 Enters into licensing of technology transfer, manufacturing and marketing agreement with R-Pharm of Russia. The collaboration is in the area of high-technology and will work on a profit sharing model

Jun-12 Dr Reddy’s and Merck Serono sign an agreement to co-develop and commercialise a portfolio of biosimilars compounds in oncology

Jul-12 USFDA lifts import alert for chemical manufacturing facility at Cuernavaca, Mexico

Oct-12 Acquires Netherland based specialty injectable company OctoPlus NV

Jun-13 Dr Reddy’s and Fujifilm Corporation call off their joint venture. The JV was started in July 2011 for developing and launching generic drugs in the Japanese market

Dec-14 Dr. Reddy's Labs closed the acquisition of Habitrol brand, an over-the-counter nicotine replacement therapy transdermal patch, from Novartis for a consideration of US$ 80 million

Apr-15 Enters a €118 million (| 800 crore) definitive agreement to acquire a select portfolio of established products from UCB in India

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Top 10 Shareholders Shareholding Pattern Rank Name Latest Filing Date % O/S Position (m)n Change (m)1 Dr Reddys Holdings Pvt. Ltd. 22-Sep-15 23.35 39.8 0.12 Stewart Investors 30-Jun-15 8.21 14.0 -0.43 OppenheimerFunds, Inc. 30-Jun-15 4.16 7.1 -0.24 BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A. 30-Jun-15 3.07 5.2 0.05 Abu Dhabi Investment Authority 30-Jun-15 1.94 3.3 -0.36 LIC Nomura Mutual Fund Asset Management Company L 30-Jun-15 1.72 2.9 2.97 Capital Research Global Investors 30-Jun-15 1.68 2.9 0.08 Franklin Templeton Asset Management (India) Pvt. Ltd. 30-Jun-15 1.66 2.8 0.19 Khazanah Nasional Berhad 30-Jun-15 1.37 2.3 0.010 Franklin Advisers, Inc. 31-Jul-15 1.32 2.2 0.0

(in %) Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15Promoter 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5FII 38.4 38.5 38.9 37.8 36.7DII 5.4 5.7 5.4 5.9 5.2Others 30.7 30.3 30.2 30.9 32.6

Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research Recent Activity

Investor name Value Shares Investor name Value SharesLIC Nomura Mutual Fund Asset Management Company Ltd. 162.66m 2.91m Capital World Investors -90.99m -1.43m BNP Paribas Investment Partners Asia Ltd. 26.61m 0.48m Investec Asset Management Ltd. -56.00m -1.28m BlackRock Asset Management North Asia Limited 14.59m 0.23m Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM) -34.58m -0.67m Russell Investments Limited 8.32m 0.15m ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co. Ltd. -30.42m -0.47m The Vanguard Group, Inc. 6.76m 0.11m Stewart Investors -21.69m -0.39m

Buys Sells

Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research

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ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 12

.

Financial summary

Profit and loss statement | Crore (Year-end March) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18ERevenues 14,818.9 16,311.7 18,664.4 21,542.4Growth (%) 27.5 10.1 14.4 15.4Raw Material Expenses 6,278.7 6,388.3 7,279.1 8,293.8SG&A 3,404.4 3,613.9 4,106.2 4,780.2R&D 1,744.8 1,913.8 2,239.7 2,585.1Other (income)/expenses -91.7 -32.7 -46.7 -53.9Total Operating Expenditure 11,336.2 11,883.4 13,578.4 15,605.3EBITDA 3,482.7 4,428.3 5,086.1 5,937.1Growth (%) 27.3 27.2 14.9 16.7Interest -168.3 -82.5 -107.4 -124.0Depreciation 854.0 966.6 1,020.2 1,090.2PBT before Exceptional Items 2,797.0 3,544.2 4,173.3 4,971.0Share of profit/ (loss) of equity acco -19.5 -20.6 -20.0 -20.0PBT 2,816.5 3,564.8 4,193.3 4,991.0Total Tax 598.4 750.0 922.5 1,098.0PAT 2,218.1 2,814.8 3,270.8 3,892.9Adjusted PAT 2,198.6 2,794.3 3,250.8 3,872.9Growth (%) 31.9 27.1 16.3 19.1EPS 130.2 165.2 191.9 228.5EPS (Adjusted) 129.0 164.0 190.8 227.3

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Cash flow statement | Crore (Year-end March) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18EProfit/(Loss) after taxation 2,218.1 2,814.8 3,270.8 3,892.9Add: Depreciation & Amortization 854.0 966.6 1,020.2 1,090.2Net Increase in Current Assets -1,634.8 -1,815.8 -1,582.9 -1,621.8Net Increase in Current Liabilities 151.1 499.9 411.1 742.2CF from operating activities 1,588.4 2,465.6 3,119.2 4,103.5

(Inc)/dec in Investments -1,110.6 -1,000.0 -1,000.0 -1,000.0(Inc)/dec in Fixed Assets -1,514.3 -1,100.0 -1,100.0 -1,100.0Others 133.1 27.9 16.2 29.8CF from investing activities -2,491.8 -2,072.1 -2,083.8 -2,070.2Free Cash Flow 74.1 1,365.6 2,019.2 3,003.5

Inc / (Dec) in Equity Capital 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0Inc / (Dec) in Loan 34.0 -400.0 -800.0 -800.0Dividend & Dividend Tax 358.7 -21.9 -25.4 -39.6Others 82.0 0.0 0.0 0.0CF from financing activities 475.2 -421.9 -825.4 -839.6Net Cash flow -428.2 -28.4 210.0 1,193.7Opening Cash 2,300.6 1,872.4 1,844.0 2,054.0Closing Cash 1,872.4 1,844.0 2,054.0 3,247.7

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Balance sheet | Crore (Year-end March) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18EEquity Capital 85.2 85.2 85.2 85.2Net Networth 9,767.9 12,560.9 15,806.3 19,659.6Total Shareholders funds 9,853.1 12,646.1 15,891.5 19,744.8Total Debt 3,617.2 3,217.2 2,417.2 1,617.2Deferred Tax Liability 140.7 145.7 150.7 155.7Other Non Current Liabilities 273.3 293.6 336.0 387.8Long term Provisions 77.9 130.5 149.3 172.3Source of Funds 13,962.2 16,433.1 18,944.7 22,077.8Gross Block - Fixed Assets 12,573.6 13,573.6 14,573.6 15,573.6Accumulated Depreciation 7,196.6 8,163.2 9,183.4 10,273.5Net Block 5,377.0 5,410.4 5,390.2 5,300.1Capital WIP 529.0 629.0 729.0 829.0Net Fixed Assets 5,906.0 6,039.4 6,119.2 6,129.1Investments 2,247.8 3,247.8 4,247.8 5,247.8Inventory 2,569.9 3,917.9 4,857.9 5,606.9Cash 1,872.4 1,844.0 2,054.0 3,247.7Debtors 4,101.2 4,469.0 5,011.9 5,784.7Loans & Advances & Other CA 1,231.0 1,331.0 1,431.0 1,531.0Total Current Assets 9,774.5 11,561.9 13,354.8 16,170.3Creditors 867.3 1,117.2 1,278.4 1,770.6Provisions & Other CL 3,768.3 4,018.3 4,268.3 4,518.3Total Current Liabilities 4,635.6 5,135.5 5,546.7 6,288.9Net Current Assets 5,138.9 6,426.3 7,808.1 9,881.4LT L& A, Other Assets 424.5 474.5 524.5 574.5Deferred Tax Assets 245.0 245.0 245.0 245.0Application of Funds 13,962.2 16,433.0 18,944.6 22,077.8

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Key ratios (Year-end March) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18EPer share data (|)EPS 129.0 164.0 190.8 227.3BV per share 578.2 742.1 932.6 1,158.7Cash Per Share 422.3 479.1 538.9 602.9Operating Ratios (%)Gross Profit Margins 57.6 60.8 61.0 61.5EBITDA margins 23.5 27.1 27.3 27.6Net Profit margins 14.8 17.1 17.4 18.0Inventory days 63.3 87.7 95.0 95.0Debtor days 101.0 100.0 98.0 98.0Creditor days 21.4 25.0 25.0 30.0EBITDA conversion Rate 45.6 55.7 61.3 69.1Return Ratios (%)RoE 22.3 22.1 20.5 19.6RoCE 18.8 21.1 21.5 22.0RoIC 29.9 34.1 36.0 40.1Valuation Ratios (x)P/E 32.4 25.5 22.0 18.4EV / EBITDA 20.5 15.8 13.4 11.0EV / Revenues 4.8 4.3 3.6 3.0Market Cap / Revenues 4.8 4.4 3.8 3.3Price to Book Value 7.3 5.7 4.5 3.6Solvency RatiosDebt / Equity 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1Debt/EBITDA 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3Current Ratio 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.1

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

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ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 13

ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Healthcare) I-Direct CMP TP Rating M CapCode (|) (|) (| Cr) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E

Ajanta Pharma AJAPHA 1588 1950 Buy 14077.7 36.0 45.8 56.5 44.1 34.6 28.1 27.3 22.6 18.1 50.3 46.8 42.5 37.8 34.8 31.9

Apollo Hospitals APOHOS 1319 1400 Hold 18491.3 23.7 28.7 39.1 55.6 45.9 33.7 30.4 25.0 19.3 9.9 11.6 14.5 10.4 11.6 14.2

Aurobindo Pharma AURPHA 845 860 Buy 49700.8 27.1 33.4 39.3 31.2 25.3 21.5 36.8 30.7 25.0 23.8 23.4 26.4 36.7 31.7 28.4

Alembic Pharma ALEMPHA 679.9 790 Buy 12915.0 15.1 39.9 28.4 44.9 17.0 23.9 32.1 13.0 18.2 30.8 55.9 32.6 32.2 53.0 29.8

Biocon BIOCON 446 470 Hold 9102.9 20.4 25.3 27.1 21.8 17.6 16.4 6.5 5.7 4.8 10.4 12.4 13.2 12.5 13.5 13.1

Cadila Healthcare CADHEA 416.8 510 Buy 42989.9 56.0 14.1 18.5 7.4 29.6 22.6 6.3 20.8 16.9 20.7 25.3 28.0 27.0 27.1 28.1Cipla CIPLA 692 750 Buy 55962.4 14.7 25.3 34.2 47.0 27.3 20.2 24.8 24.5 16.7 17.2 13.8 17.3 13.8 10.9 16.3

Divi's Laboratories DIVLAB 1121 1180 Hold 29988.7 64.2 79.1 98.2 17.5 14.2 11.4 1.8 1.3 0.8 29.4 30.1 31.2 24.4 24.9 25.2

Dr Reddy's Labs DRREDD 4221 5000 Buy 72560.7 129.0 164.0 190.8 32.4 25.5 22.0 20.5 15.8 13.4 18.8 21.1 21.5 22.3 22.1 20.5

Glenmark Pharma GLEPHA 942.8 1000 Hold 26803.2 16.5 33.7 47.5 57.2 28.0 19.9 23.8 25.9 18.3 19.3 14.7 22.0 18.1 14.2 23.9

Indoco Remedies INDREM 324 385 Hold 3009.8 9.0 11.9 18.9 36.1 27.3 17.1 25.8 18.5 15.5 16.6 19.8 21.3 12.7 16.0 18.2

Ipca Laboratories IPCLAB 781.8 665 Hold 9940.9 19.9 25.0 41.5 39.3 31.2 18.8 12.5 19.7 17.9 26.8 11.5 11.0 27.2 11.4 13.0

Jubilant Life Sciences VAMORG 401 335 Hold 6433.5 -3.6 31.9 43.7 -110.5 12.6 9.2 14.1 7.3 6.0 5.8 13.6 16.1 -0.4 19.3 22.6

Lupin LUPIN 1920 1885 Buy 87120.2 53.6 55.7 75.4 35.8 34.5 25.5 28.6 22.6 21.8 35.7 35.1 24.4 26.5 27.1 22.9

Natco Pharma NATPHA 2567 2575 Buy 9010.1 34.6 48.7 67.2 74.3 52.8 38.2 43.7 36.3 27.0 16.1 15.1 18.9 14.1 13.8 16.7

Sun Pharma SUNPHA 878.9 850 Hold 213120.4 19.8 20.5 32.6 44.4 42.8 27.0 25.5 24.9 17.2 19.9 19.2 24.0 20.8 18.5 23.6

Torrent Pharma TORPHA 1579 1660 Buy 26918.1 44.4 94.4 79.0 35.6 16.7 20.0 14.3 15.0 5.6 28.1 20.1 45.5 34.9 30.2 44.4

Unichem Laboratories UNILAB 290.1 330 Buy 2654.9 8.3 12.8 18.1 35.1 22.8 16.1 25.7 14.8 11.1 8.5 15.2 18.9 8.7 12.2 15.4

RoE (%)Company

EPS (|) PE(x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoCE (%)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

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ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 15

RATING RATIONALE ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction; Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively; Hold: Up to +/-10%; Sell: -10% or more;

Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093

[email protected]

Page 15: Dr Reddy’s Laboratories (DRREDD)content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_DrReddys_Q2FY16.pdf · ~8% in FY15-18E driven by growth in India as the Russian performance remains volatile.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 16

ANALYST CERTIFICATION We /I, Siddhant Khandekar, CA INTER and Mitesh Shah, MS (finance), Nandan Kamat MBA Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures: ICICI Securities Limited is a SEBI registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com. ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. It is confirmed that Siddhant Khandekar, CA INTER and Mitesh Shah, MS (finance), Nandan Kamat MBA, Research Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. Since associates of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report. It is confirmed that Siddhant Khandekar, CA INTER and Mitesh Shah, MS (finance), Nandan Kamat MBA, Research Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report. ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report. We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.


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