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Document NamePREPARED BY: Your Name, Your TitleDATE: 6TH MARCH 2015
Developments in the Distributed Energy Industry
WA Power & Gas Conference, March 2017
Renate Egan
Co-founder, Chair, Solar Analytics
Chair, Australian PV Institute
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Solar Installs. Total Capacity and System Price
$12/W $9/W
$6/W
$3/W
$2.30/W
3www.apvi.org.au
APVI Solar Mapping Tools
4
Annual Installations2016
• Lumpy utility scale solar with >1.0GW planned for 2017-2019
• Stable residential and commercial markets
• Residential remains the biggest market and expected to grow in 2017
• RET is the only incentive since 2013
www.apvi.org.au
5
PV Market Statistics
end 2016• 5.9 GW capacity ,
• 8.4TWh (@1400MWh/MW)
• 3.3% demand
• 7th largest market (annual installs)• 10th largest (total installed)
• 2.4 Billion dollar/annum (2015)• >12 BAUD 2010 - 2015
• 8,300/yr direct employment (2015)• 12,400 total employment (2015)Internationally:
www.apvi.org.au
200610 MW
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Projections:in line with 50% renewable capacity by 2040 (BNEF); 30% solar capacity
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Leading the World in Residential Rooftop Solar
8
National Average Over 20%
14 March 2017
WA 24.6%
680 MW, 576 MW<10kW
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47%LGA, Serpentine-Jarrahdale3076/642310.9 MW installed
10
68%6171Baldivis3951/576511.1 MW installed
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Impact
West Australia
20 March 2017
South Australia
8 Feb 2017
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Australian Market
Unlike anywhere else in the world …Leading in residential, lagging in utility scale solar
• High penetration distributed generation
• Average 25% available households
• Over 60% in some areas (>5,000 homes)
• Isolated microgrids
• Diverse climate zones
• Engaged and informed market
• Lots of learning by doing
• Technology moving ahead of policy and regulation
• New markets, new services, new business opportunities
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So Much Generation… Behind the Meter
Data from 8,000 Ausgrid solar
energy systems shows that
approximately 51.8% are not
performing at capacity
‘Performance lessons from the
real world’, SunWiz 2012
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Solar Analytics - Solar Smart Monitoring
Works with ANY PV system -unlike most other monitoring offerings which are inverter or module specific
Provides an open architecture to promote integrated solutions
From 300 to 10,000 sales in 18 months
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Empower People to Navigate the Energy Transition
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We can tell if your
solar energy system
is working as expected
and if it’s not…
we can tell you what’s wrong
and what to do about it.
More Power to You
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Power in the Data
Fault
Detection
Tariff
Optimisation
Net and
Gross
metering
Retail
PlatformsBattery
Calculator
Energy
Trading
Fleet
Services
Data
Services
20182016 2017
PPA and
Leasing
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Fault Detection: Shading
19
Site Specific Battery Estimator
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• Tens of batteries being monitored
• Significant growth expected 2017
Energy Storage
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Improved Investment Return Through Intelligence
1.5%
Customers with
positive return on
investment
-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%IRR on battery investment
Powerwall 2 with basic charge
Optimised battery size
NEM trading
Weather and consumption forecasting
25% battery price reduction
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2.7xCustomers with
positive return on
investment
-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%IRR on battery investment
Powerwall 2 with basic charge
Optimised battery size
NEM trading
Weather and consumption forecasting
25% battery price reduction
Improved Investment Return Through Intelligence
23
2xCustomers with
positive return on
investment
-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%IRR on battery investment
Powerwall 2 with basic charge
Optimised battery size
NEM trading
Weather and consumption forecasting
25% battery price reduction
Improved Investment Return Through Intelligence
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2.7x
Customers with
positive return on
investment
-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%IRR on battery investment
Powerwall 2 with basic charge
Optimised battery size
NEM trading
Weather and consumption forecasting
25% battery price reduction
Improved Investment Return Through Intelligence
25
2.4x
Customers with
positive return on
investment
-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%IRR on battery investment
Powerwall 2 with basic charge
Optimised battery size
NEM trading
Weather and consumption forecasting
25% battery price reduction
Improved Investment Return Through Intelligence
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1.5%
4%
8%
21%
50%
Customers with
positive return on
investment
-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%IRR on battery investment
Powerwall 2 with basic charge
Optimised battery size
NEM trading
Weather and consumption forecasting
25% battery price reduction
Improved Investment Return Through Intelligence
27
Solar Analytics Monitoring Dashboard
from 300 to 10,000
in 18 months
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• Improve sales conversions
• Increase future sales
• Additional revenue opportunities
• Reduce costs
We give Solar Resellers lifetime profitable customers
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• Offer new unregulated energy services
• Increase customer engagement and retention
• Protect against disintermediation by 3rd parties
• Our hardware or your smart meter
Utilities gain the tools to retain the most active customers and offer new energy services
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Real Time Data
Measurements
• Energy – generated
• Energy – exported
• Power - real
• Power - reactive
• Power factor
• Power, min, max
• Frequency, min, max
• Voltage, min, max
• Current, min. max
Detailed Energy Insights
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Detailed Energy Insights
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Working with ARENA
22nd March 2017
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Solar Analytics
Fast, low-cost, simple monitoring solution
Live data
Compatible with any inverter and battery
Real-time solar production & energy consumption
Performance information
Fault diagnosis with actionable recommendations
Co-branded reports and notifications
PPA billing
Australian solar expertise
Local technical support team
35
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Key Market Statistics
2006 2016
PV capacity added10MW
2 MW grid, 8 MW off grid
780 MW
720 MW distributed; 60 power station, (tba)
off-grid
Cumulative
installed capacity
70 MW
60 MW grid, 9 off grid5,900 MW
Electricity
generated<0.05% 8,400 GWh (3.3%)
Typical residential
PV system price$12.50/Wp $2.20/Wp $1.40/Wp with STCs
Ave size of
residential PV
systems
1.2 kW 6.0kW
Number of Aus
homes with a PV
system
Over 1.6 million
Residential
penetration levels
Average 20 % (27% of suitable
dwellings);
Over 60% in some areas
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Projections:in line with 50% renewable capacity by 2040 (BNEF); 30% solar capacity