Dr. Sara Via, Professor, UMD [email protected]2/16/2017 Managing Risk in a Changing Climate Dr. Sara Via Dept. of Entomology & UME UMD, College Park [email protected]Source: NASA, Climate Central Difference from average temperatures 1881-1910 2016 the hottest year ever How do we know this is not part of a natural cycle? 320 340 360 380 300 180 200 220 240 260 280 2013 CO 2 concentration: 400 ppm 0 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 Age (years Before Present) Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA ~9 deg CO 2 Concentration Temperature Some energy is radiated back into space as infrared (heat) waves Some energy is radiated back into space as infrared (heat) waves Greenhouse gas molecules absorb infrared waves and reflect some heat back to Earth, slowing heat loss *more gas molecules, **slower heat loss ***more warming Greenhouse gas molecules absorb infrared waves and reflect some heat back to Earth, slowing heat loss *more gas molecules, **slower heat loss ***more warming Most solar radiation is absorbed by the Earth and warms it Most solar radiation is absorbed by the Earth and warms it More CO 2 in the atmosphere slows heat loss p.1
Age (years Before Present)Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA
~9 deg
CO
2 C
once
ntra
tion
Tem
pera
ture
Some energy is radiated back into space asinfrared (heat) waves
Some energy is radiated back into space asinfrared (heat) waves
Greenhouse gas molecules absorb infrared waves and reflect some heat back to Earth, slowing heat loss*more gas molecules, **slower heat loss***more warming
Greenhouse gas molecules absorb infrared waves and reflect some heat back to Earth, slowing heat loss*more gas molecules, **slower heat loss***more warming
Most solar radiation is absorbed by theEarth and warms it
Most solar radiation is absorbed by theEarth and warms it
-Warmer air-Warmer ocean-More water vapor in air-Higher sea levelThese cause- Severe weather; more extreme extremes- More variable weather- Warmer winters, earlier springs, hotter summers
- More rainfall comes as downpours; flash flooding- Rainy springs & falls (MD)- Dryer summers- More tidal flooding and storm surge
Useful to start planning NOW
The “New Normal”
2/8/2017
What does this look like for Maryland? Temperature
Source: NOAA
Average, maximum & minimum temperatureincrease in all seasons
increase their diversityProvide natural enemies nectar, pollen& protection from predators
Plant mixtures?
Bachelor buttons in celery, beneficials reduce aphids
Lacewing eggs
Heat stress: sun scald
ozone damage!
scald
Adapting to increased temperature- Plant earlier in spring, later in summer- Stagger planting dates to hedge bets- Mulch (plant material, white or reflective)- Try heat tolerant varieties- Build shade, evaporative cooling?
2104: Oakmoor Orchard, BC lost 40% Granny Smith yield to sun scald. Saved $47,000/yr with overhead evaporative cooling
