Draft Report Breakout Session III-5

Ecosystem Consequences of Climate Change

• Ecosystem Impacts & Feedbacks• Effects on Biodiversity, Invasions,

Protected Areas• Societal Consequences, Ecosystem Services

Ecosystem Consequences of Climate Change

“Climate Change” –- 35,496 hits in Web of Science“Climate Change and Ecosystem(s)” –

5,097 hits97 in Nature/Science, 612 Reviews

What are likely ecosystem consequence of climate

change?• Terrestrial

Ecosystems– Carbon– Fire– Phenology– Insect defoliation– Vegetation

Communities– Permafrost– Coastal Ecosystems

• Marine Ecosystems– Pelagic Systems– Coastal Wetlands– Mangroves/Sea

Grass– Eutrophication/

Anoxia– Algal Blooms– Coral Reefs– Phytoplankton

Biodiversity

Ecosystem Impacts and Feedbacks

• Carbon cycle– Very strong research, remote sensing

crucial

• Fire Regimes– Strong research, remote sensing crucial

• Phenology– Strong research, remote sensing crucial

Ecosystem Impacts and Feedbacks

• Insect Defoliation– Some research, remote sensing crucial

• Vegetation Community Change– Strong modeling based research,

remote sensing crucial for baseline– Most work has used climate envelopes,

better models may be necessary

Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System (MAPSS) output; US Global Change Research Program. 2000. Climate Change Impacts on the United States

2000 2100

Ecosystem Impacts and Feedbacks

• Permafrost– Some research, remote sensing crucial

• Freshwater Lakes• Limited research, remote sensing

important

• Coastal Ecosystems– Some research, remote sensing important

Ecosystem Impacts and Feedbacks

• Pelagic System• Very little research, remote sensing

crucial

• Estuarine and Coastal Wetlands– Some research, innovative remote

sensing required

• Mangroves, Sea Grass, and Kelp Beds– Some research, innovative remote

sensing required

• Coastal Eutrophication and Anoxia– Some research, some remote sensing

measurements

Ecosystem Impacts and Feedbacks

• Harmful Algal Blooms– Some research, innovative remote

sensing required

• Coral Reefs– Some research, remote sensing crucial

• Ocean Acidification• Important research, remote sensing

important

• Global Phytoplanton Biodiversity / Food Webs– Some research on functional groups,

innovative remote sensing methods required

What are likely consequences of climate change for

biodiversity et al.?• Biodiversity

– Species Range Shifts and Extinctions

– Loss of Rare Ecosystems

• Protected Areas• Native and Exotic Invasions

Biodiversity, Protected Areas,and Invasions

• Species Range Shifts and Extinctions– Strong modeling based research,

remote sensing important

• Loss of Rare Ecosystems – Some modeling based research,

remote sensing important for baseline

Biodiversity, Protected Areas,and Invasions

• Protected Areas– Limited research on climate change

threats, remote sensing important for baseline

• Invasions– Some modeling based research,

remote sensing important

What are the societal consequences of climate

change?• Ecosystem Services

– Agriculture/Forestry– Fisheries/Aquaculature– Water/Glaciers/Precipitation– Pollination– Geomorphogy

• Extreme weather events• Urbanization• Human Health• Political Destabilization/Failed States

• Threatened Ecosystem Services• Agriculture / Forestry

– Strong research, remote sensing crucial

• Fisheries / Aquaculture– Some research using remote sensing and

modeling

• Water / Precipitation– Strong research, remote sensing important

• Pollination– Some research, remote sensing relevant

What are the societal consequences of climate

change?

• Extreme Events (Hurricanes etc.)– Strong research, remote sensing crucial

• Human Health– Some research, remote sensing role

unclear

• Political Destabilization / Failed States– Little quantitative research, remote

sensing could play important role

What are the societal consequences of climate

change?

•Interactions, Adaptations, and Mitigation

•Climate changeand society

What are the most important

cross-cutting science questions?

•Adaptations• The importance of the rates of climate

change is largely unknown–Rapid evolution; we don’t know how

quickly species can adapt (genetically and behaviorally)

–Species ability to migrate will depend on rates of change

What are the most importantcross-cutting science

questions?

•Mitigation• Society will attempt to mitigate climate

change• What are the ecosystem consequences of

different mitigation measures?•E.g.., Iron fertilization

What are the most importantcross-cutting science

questions?

•Overview Part I•Biodiversity loss•Harmful Algal Blooms•Sea Level Rise•Ecosystem Response to Disturbance

What are the most importantcross-cutting science

questions?

•Overview Part II•Sea Ice Loss and Change of Trade

Routes•Desertification•Land Use Change and Coastal

Systems•Protected areas, source-sink

dynamics, biodiversity, and carbon sequestration

What are the most importantcross-cutting science

questions?

• Biodiversity loss– Land use is currently more important,

climate change will be after 2050 (or so)– Range shifts will depend on landscape

fragmentation– Land use change in response to climate

change may matter more than actual climate change

What are the most importantcross-cutting science

questions?

• Interdisciplinary Land-Ocean Research• Affects of use change on sediments and

nutrients in estuaries and ultimately harmful algal blooms

• Climate change and increasing duststorms affecting algal blooms

What are the most importantcross-cutting science

questions?

Where are changes most likely?

Focused field campaigns may be necessary

Lenton et al. 2008. Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system. PNAS. 155:1786-1793

• Vegetation structure, ecosystem function, and species distributions– DESDynI and HyspIRI (and ACE) are

exciting and will be crucial

• Data continuity crucial (LDCM …)• Ready-to-use standardized data

products•Web-tools, data integration

Can upcoming NASA mission address these questions?

• Model Integration•Model Web (G. Geller)

• Partnership with Science Agencies•NIH, NSF, NOAA

• Partnership with Management Agencies and NGOs

Is there a need for additional coordination of research

activities?

Ecosystem Consequences of Climate Change

The major challenge will be to develop a holistic understanding of human-natural systems to predict climate change consequences