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 April 2002

Momentum is building around the Millennium Development Goals (MDG’s) within the UN family and across the world. They are the focus of our participation at this year's global conferences: the International Conference on Financing for Development recently held in Monterrey and the World Conference on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg in August and September. They are integral to our mission. For this reason we need a clear understanding of how the MDG’s are a part of our work at the country level. The MDG’s comprise ambitious global targets for 2015 set by leaders from around the world at the 2000 UN Millennium Summit. They include:

• Halving extreme poverty and hunger• Achieving universal primary education• Promoting gender equality• Reducing under-five mortality by two-thirds• Reducing maternal mortality by three-quarters• Reversing the spread of HIV/AIDS, malaria and TB

• Developing a global partnership for development, with targets for aid, trade and debt relief

• Ensuring environmental sustainability

The MDG’s can be achieved globally but a large majority of countries are unlikely to reach them without concerted support from the international community, including resources, policy advice and advocacy. Because they grow out of development goals agreed on by the international community in the 1990s, the MDG’s take 1990 as their benchmark and they reflect longstanding priorities, beginning with poverty reduction.  As we work with partners inside and outside the UN to build a campaign in support of the MDG’s, it is important to remember this continuity. You are going to see a short presentation of possible scenarios for Burkina Faso. It is important to note that the projections are still preliminary although they are taken from existing strategic frameworks such as the PRSP and the UN Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF).

UNDP, like the World Bank, the IMF and the rest of the UN system of agencies are strongly committed to placing MDG’s at the centre of national development priorities. However, MDG’s need to be placed in the national context and global targets and timing cannot be imposed on countries. The HIV-AIDS pandemic will have a profound impact on several of the goals, such as mortality, school enrolment, nutrition, income and poverty. Processes like the PRSP can help define national targets that are ambitious but that remain feasible. Otherwise, MDG’s may lead to a perception of failure among actors who may then become defensive, and to finger pointing for inadequate performance. We must ensure that MDG’s do not escalate in such negativity.Our purpose is therefore to present a possible and realistic scenario for Burkina Faso, for discussion.

Comparative evolution of poverty reduction objectives

Sources :MEF, 2002 et Initiative de suivi du Millénaire, Burkina Faso 2002

0

20

40

60

1994 1998 2005 2010 2015

Trend

Obj.National

Millennium

Monetary poverty (%)

Halve hunger stricken population

05

101520253035404550

1996 1999 2005 2010 2015 2020

% o

f h

un

ge

r s

tric

ke

n p

op

ula

tio

n

Trend

O.National

O.Millennium

Sources :MEF, 2002 et Initiative de suivi du Millénaire, Burkina Faso 2002

Halve the number of people without access to safe drinking water

0

20

40

60

80

100

1994 1998 2005 2010 2015

% o

f p

eop

le w

ith

ou

t p

ota

ble

wat

er

Trend

O.Millennium

0.National

Sources : MEF, CONAGES et Initiative de suivi du Millénaire, Burkina Faso 2002

Universal primary education

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

pe

r c

en

t Trend

O.National

O.Millennium

Sources :MEF, MEBA et Initiative de suivi du Millénaire, Burkina Faso 2002

EVOLUTION OF GROSS ENROLLMENT RATES

Gender equality in primary education

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1990

1998

2005

2015

2025

Rat

io g

irls

-bo

ys

Trend

O.National

O.Millennium

Sources :MEBA et Initiative de suivi du Millénaire, Burkina Faso 2002

Gender equality in secondary education

00.20.40.60.8

11.2

19

90

19

97

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

35

20

40

Année

Trend

O.National

O.Millennium

Sources :MEF et Initiative de suivi du Millénaire, Burkina Faso 2002

Ratio girls-boys

Two thirds reduction of child mortality

020406080

100120140

1990 1993 1998 2010 2015 2020Chi

ld m

orta

lity

rate

s (t

hous

ands

bi

rths

) Trend

O.National

O. Millennium

Sources :Ministère de la Santé et Initiative de suivi du Millénaire, Burkina Faso 2002

Two thirds reduction of maternal mortalityTwo thirds reduction of maternal mortality

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1993 1998 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Trend

O.National

O.Millennium

Sources :Ministère de la Santé et Initiative de suivi du Millénaire, Burkina Faso 2002

Maternal mortality rates

Availablity of reproduction health care services in urban and rural areas

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1993 1998 2000 2010 2020

STU

STR

OMU

OMR

STU : Scenario trend urban MR: MDG rural STR: Scenario trend rural MU: MDG urban

Sources :Ministère de la Santé et Initiative de suivi du Millénaire, Burkina Faso 2002

Contraceptive prevalence rates (%)

Reversing the spread of HIV-AIDS

Sources :CNLS et Initiative de suivi du Millénaire, Burkina Faso 2002

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2000 2005 2007 2010 2015 2020

Pre

vale

nce

% Trend

O.National

O.Millennium

Sero-prevalence in %

Recent evolution of wooded land and restored areas

0

50

100

150

200

1980 1990 1995 2000

Forrested areas

Restored areas

Thousands Km2

Source : Conages, Mars 2002

EVOLUTION OF MACRO-ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL INDICATORS

0

5

10

15

20

25

2001 - 2005 2006-2010 2011-2015

Gross Domestic Invest.(%)

Growth GDP (%)

Sources :MEF et Initiative de suivi du Millénaire, Burkina Faso 2002

Financing essential social sectors

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

2001-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015

ODA/ESS (%)

Public SpendingESS (%)

Sources :MEF, PNUD et Initiative de suivi du Millénaire, Burkina Faso 2002

Global funding needs for the development strategy1990-2015

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1991-1995 1996-2000 2001 - 2005 2006-2010 2011-2015

HIPC

Loans

Grants

Financing needs

million US dollars

Sources :MEF, FMI et Initiative de suivi du Millénaire, Burkina Faso 2002