Dr. A Dr Dr Dr Dr. A . A . A . A All eyes on RBI Monetary poli expiry week.. The Indian market posted a gain F&O expiry which dragged the Nif sold equities worth Rs 2,707 crore week as they bought equities wort percent last week. BSE Midcap i Largecap index rose o.7 percent. India's GDP rose at 7.7 percent in same period last year, and a revis year, GDP grew at 6.7 percent com Benchmark indices edged lower o investor focus shifting to the mons the broader Nifty50 index settled index ended over 1% lower led by Meanwhile, government data show January-March, its quickest pace i farm sector and construction. The faster pace of growth in the la increase by the Reserve Bank of macro data, India's manufacturing pace, while rising inflationary pres monthly survey. Ashok Ajmera (FCA), CMD & CEO Ajmera’s column Ajmera’s column Ajmera’s column Ajmera’s column as on as on as on as on June 02 June 02 June 02 June 02, 2018 , 2018 , 2018 , 2018 icy and onset of monsoons; domestic bours of nearly 1 percent last week but remained volat fty below 10,700 level. Foreign investors stayed n e in last week, while domestic institutions were b rth Rs 2,160 crore. India's volatility index (India V index was down 0.3 percent and Smallcap dow n the fourth quarter of 2017-18 compared with 6 sed 7 percent in the quarter ended December. Fo mpared with 7.1 percent in the previous year. on Friday as losses in financials offset gains in soons. The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 35,227, dow at 10,696, down 40 points. Among sectoral indice a fall in the shares of IndusInd Bank and Federal B wed on Thursday that Indian economy grew 7.7% in nearly two years driven by higher growth in m atest quarter might also strengthen expectations o India (RBI) as its reviews monetary policy next g sector activity eased in May as new work orders ssures might prompt the Reserve Bank to hike inte ses gain in F&O tile on the back of net sellers as they buyers in the last VIX) gained over 7 wn 1 percent while 6.1 percent in the or the full financial auto stocks, with wn 95 points while es, the Nifty Bank Bank. % year-on-year in manufacturing, the of an interest rate week. Amid other s rose at a weaker erest rates, says a
All eyes on RBI Monetary policy and onset of monsoons; domestic bourses gain in F&O
expiry week..
The Indian market posted a gain of nearly 1 percent last week but remained volatile on the back of
F&O expiry which dragged the Nifty below 10,700 level.
sold equities worth Rs 2,707 crore in last week, while domestic institutions were buyers in the last
week as they bought equities worth Rs
percent last week. BSE Midcap index was down 0.3 percent and Smallcap down 1
Largecap index rose o.7 percent.
India's GDP rose at 7.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017
same period last year, and a revised 7
year, GDP grew at 6.7 percent compared with 7.1
Benchmark indices edged lower on Friday as losses in financials offset gains in auto stocks, with
investor focus shifting to the monsoons.
the broader Nifty50 index settled at 10,696, down 40 points.
index ended over 1% lower led by a fall in the
Meanwhile, government data showed on Thursday that Indian economy grew 7.7% year
January-March, its quickest pace in nearly two years driven by higher growth in manufacturing, the
farm sector and construction.
The faster pace of growth in the la
increase by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) as its reviews monetary policy next week.
macro data, India's manufacturing sector activity eased in May as new work orders rose at
pace, while rising inflationary pressures might prompt the Reserve Bank to hike interest rates, says a
monthly survey.
r. Ashok Ajmera (FCA), CMD & CEO
. Ajmera’s column. Ajmera’s column. Ajmera’s column. Ajmera’s column as onas onas onas on June 02June 02June 02June 02, 2018, 2018, 2018, 2018
All eyes on RBI Monetary policy and onset of monsoons; domestic bourses gain in F&O
The Indian market posted a gain of nearly 1 percent last week but remained volatile on the back of
Nifty below 10,700 level. Foreign investors stayed net sellers as they
2,707 crore in last week, while domestic institutions were buyers in the last
week as they bought equities worth Rs 2,160 crore. India's volatility index (India VIX) gained over 7
percent last week. BSE Midcap index was down 0.3 percent and Smallcap down 1
percent in the fourth quarter of 2017-18 compared with 6.1
same period last year, and a revised 7 percent in the quarter ended December. For the full financial
compared with 7.1 percent in the previous year.
edged lower on Friday as losses in financials offset gains in auto stocks, with
investor focus shifting to the monsoons. The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 35,227, down 95 points while
the broader Nifty50 index settled at 10,696, down 40 points. Among sectoral indices, t
index ended over 1% lower led by a fall in the shares of IndusInd Bank and Federal Bank.
anwhile, government data showed on Thursday that Indian economy grew 7.7% year
March, its quickest pace in nearly two years driven by higher growth in manufacturing, the
The faster pace of growth in the latest quarter might also strengthen expectations of an interest rate
increase by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) as its reviews monetary policy next week.
macro data, India's manufacturing sector activity eased in May as new work orders rose at
pace, while rising inflationary pressures might prompt the Reserve Bank to hike interest rates, says a
All eyes on RBI Monetary policy and onset of monsoons; domestic bourses gain in F&O
The Indian market posted a gain of nearly 1 percent last week but remained volatile on the back of
eign investors stayed net sellers as they
2,707 crore in last week, while domestic institutions were buyers in the last
volatility index (India VIX) gained over 7
percent last week. BSE Midcap index was down 0.3 percent and Smallcap down 1 percent while
mpared with 6.1 percent in the
percent in the quarter ended December. For the full financial
edged lower on Friday as losses in financials offset gains in auto stocks, with
ended at 35,227, down 95 points while
Among sectoral indices, the Nifty Bank
Federal Bank.
anwhile, government data showed on Thursday that Indian economy grew 7.7% year-on-year in
March, its quickest pace in nearly two years driven by higher growth in manufacturing, the
test quarter might also strengthen expectations of an interest rate
increase by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) as its reviews monetary policy next week. Amid other
macro data, India's manufacturing sector activity eased in May as new work orders rose at a weaker
pace, while rising inflationary pressures might prompt the Reserve Bank to hike interest rates, says a
The Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell from 51.6 in April to 51.2 in
May.
Global Markets
Global stock markets largely closed in red on concerns about the repercussions of Italy's political
turmoil, but in later part of the week, Italian parties agreed to form a government. The renewal of
trade tensions after the US announced tariffs on aluminum and steel imports also dented sentiment.
Most Asian markets ended lower. Singapore's Straits Times fell 2.44 percent for the week followed by
Japan's Nikkei (down 1.25 percent), China's Shanghai Composite (2.10 percent) and South Korea's
Kospi (0.89 percent).
European stocks also closed in the red for the week, though traded higher on Friday after easing of
political concerns in Italy. France's CAC index lost 1.39 percent and Germany's DAX dipped 1.65
percent while Britain's FTSE shed 0.37 percent.
In the week ended June 1, the Nasdaq Composite rallied 1.62 percent and the S&P 500 gained 0.48
percent but the Dow Jones shed 0.48 percent.
Ajcon’s view
Nifty may remain volatile as we have monetary policy next week. Trading for next week is going to be
lacklustre. IMD has forecast a normal monsoon, which is good for rural India. Rural consumption
theme and agriculture sector are the pockets which are likely to benefit from this.
The March quarter earnings has been decent and in line with market expectations. Companies in
sectors like Auto, NBFCs, consumption space did well. The results in sectors like PSU banks, IT and
pharma stocks were below expectations. We do expect revival in earnings in FY19. However,
important factors like onset of monsoons, crude oil prices movement and recovery efforts of PSU
banks to resolve its NPAs will determine earnings growth in FY19. According to us FY19 would be
much better than FY18. We are confident that economic recovery is on its way and that should help
corporate earnings grow in double digits in FY19. Infrastructure, consumption sector would drive
earnings growth. The recent hike in steel and cement prices also reinforces our conviction that things
have taken off in the ground level as well. We believe corporate earnings should witness strong over
the next two years and that should make the current valuations cheap on forward earnings.
We expect the market to be range bound as there are assembly elections lined up in several states
and Loksabha election in FY19. Any outcome from state elections or any key development in the
economy which would create volatility in market which would offer investors an opportunity to do
value picking across sectors.
Dr. Ashok Ajmera, FCA
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