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DREAM HOARDERS: CLASS INEQUALITY AND SOCIAL
MOBILITY IN THE US AND UKCASE Welfare Policy and Analysis Seminar
London School of Economics, 1st Nov 2017,
Richard V. Reeves, Brookings Institution
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Distribution of 529 holders
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Pelosi/Van Hollen: Affluent, liberal districts
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“This proposal was targeted at what may be the single most dangerous constituency to anger: the upper middle class -wealthy enough to have influence, and numerous enough to be a significant voting bloc.” Paul Waldman, Washington Post
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Thanks, Uncle Sam!
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The Argument
• UMC is separating from the majority• Inequality endures across generations• Relative and Absolute mobility• The case for downward mobility• Mechanism 1: Market meritocracy/Education• Mechanism 2: Opportunity hoarding• Solving the “I’m Not Rich” problem first
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The Argument
• UMC is separating from the majority• Inequality endures across generations• Relative and Absolute mobility• The case for downward mobility• Mechanism 1: Market meritocracy/Education• Mechanism 2: Opportunity hoarding• Solving the “I’m Not Rich” problem first
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We are the 99%!
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Or not?...
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Separation also in…
• Family structure and stability• Health• Wealth• Life expectancy• Culture & social capital• Neighborhoods• Etc….
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The Argument
• UMC is separating from the majority• Inequality endures across generations• Relative and Absolute mobility• The case for downward mobility• Mechanism 1: Market meritocracy/Education• Mechanism 2: Opportunity hoarding• Solving the “I’m Not Rich” problem first
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Sticky ends: relative mobility
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Sticky ends: relative mobility
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Sticky ends: relative mobility
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Mobility of….wealth
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The Argument
• UMC is separating from the majority• Inequality endures across generations• Relative and Absolute mobility• The case for downward mobility• Mechanism 1: Market meritocracy/Education• Mechanism 2: Opportunity hoarding• Solving the “I’m Not Rich” problem first
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Declining absolute mobility
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Especially in the rust belt
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Why? Inequality, mostly
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• http://wpmedia.fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2014/06/vancouver-traffic.jpg?w=620
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The Argument
• UMC is separating from the majority• Inequality endures across generations• Relative and Absolute mobility• The case for downward mobility• Mechanism 1: Market meritocracy/Education• Mechanism 2: Opportunity hoarding• Solving the “I’m Not Rich” problem first
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“The concern with upward mobility has obscured the importance and amount of downward mobility...[but] it may well be that downward mobility is a better indicator of fluidity in a society than is upward mobility....A society which is dropping sons born in advantaged strata has more openness that one which brings up the talented manual sons but safeguards the privileges of the already advantaged.”- S.M. (Mike) Miller, 1969 (my italics)
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Upward mobility wildly popular…
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Downward mobility less so….
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“ Parents' desperation to keep their children in the top 20%...is at least partly driven by their fear of what happens in the 21st century to young people who are in the middle or lower: job insecurity, contingent and contract employment, no health insurance, outsourcing, and the rest.” – “JB” in Oak Park, IL
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Further to fall in U.S.A.
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Rawlsian Social Justice: Veil of Ignorance
“No one knows his place in society, his class position or social status; nor does he know his fortune in the distribution of natural assets and abilities, his intelligence and strength, and the like.” – Rawls, Theory of Justice, p. 118
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Rawlsian Social Justice: Veil of Ignorance
My reformulation: “No one knows his children’s place in society, their class position or social status; nor does he know their fortune in the distribution of natural assets and abilities, theirintelligence and strength, and the like.”
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The Argument
• UMC is separating from the majority• Inequality endures across generations• Relative and Absolute mobility• The case for downward mobility• Mechanism 1: Market meritocracy/Education• Mechanism 2: Opportunity hoarding• Solving the “I’m Not Rich” problem first
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Educational status across generations
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Which college? Depends on your class(social class, that is)
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An upper middle class monopoly?
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Class divide in college classes
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Williams’ Warrior Society
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Williams’ Warrior Society
“The reformers protest that equality of opportunity has not really been achieved; the wealthy reply that in fact it has, and that the poor now have the opportunity of becoming warriors - it is just bad luck that their characteristics are such that they do not pass the test. ‘We are not’, they might say, ‘excluding anyone for being poor, we exclude people for being weak, and it is unfortunate that those who are poor are also weak’.” – Bernard Williams
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America’s Test-Taker Society
“The reformers protest that equality of opportunity has not really been achieved; the wealthy reply that in fact it has, and that the poor now have the opportunity of getting good jobs - it is just bad luck that their characteristics are such that they do not pass the test. ‘We are not’, they might say, ‘excluding anyone for being poor, we exclude people for being dumb, and it is unfortunate that those who are poor are also dumb’.” – Bernard Williams (adapted)
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The Argument
• UMC is separating from the majority• Inequality endures across generations• Relative and Absolute mobility• Mechanism 1: Market meritocracy/Education• Mechanism 2: Opportunity hoarding• Solving the “I’m Not Rich” problem first
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What is “opportunity hoarding”
• Adapted from Tilly, Durable Inequality, 1998• Valuable opportunity for future prospects. Eg.
skills, qualifications or contacts• Scarce, in order to be hoarded. (Water is
valuable but plentiful.) Ie. “positional goods”, • Allocated in an anti-competitive fashion ie.
“with other factors, entirely independent of a person’s individual performance, entering into the equation.”
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Opportunity Hoarding: A User’s Guide
• Exclusionary zoning• Legacy admissions• Internship opportunities
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Opportunity Hoarding: A User’s Guide
• Exclusionary zoning• Legacy admissions• Internship opportunities
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The rent is too darned high
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Maybe because of this?
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Hey, what happened to all that space?
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Opportunity Hoarding: A User’s Guide
• Exclusionary zoning• Legacy admissions• Internship opportunities
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Legacies: “A slight tip”?
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Opportunity Hoarding: A User’s Guide
• Exclusionary zoning• Legacy admissions• Internship opportunities
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Internships are valuable
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College Reputation
Relevance ofCoursework
College GPA
Extracurricular Activities
Volunteer Experience
College Major
Employment DuringCollege
Internships
Aggregate score
Figure 6.3. Employers Value Internships Most
Source: "The Role of Higher Education in Career Development: Employer Perceptions" Chronicles of Higher Education, 2012. (http://www.chronicle.com/items/biz/pdf/Employers%20Survey.pdf)a. Employers were asked "How much weight do you give each of the following educational credentials when you evaluate a recent college graduate’s resume? How much weight do you give each of the following types of experience when you evaluate a recent college graduate’s resume to see if further discussions are warranted?" Reported importance levels were then weighted by importance of academic vs. experience on hiring of recent graduates to obtain an aggregate score.
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The Argument
• UMC is separating from the majority• Inequality endures across generations• Relative and Absolute mobility• The case for downward mobility• Mechanism 1: Market meritocracy/Education• Mechanism 2: Opportunity hoarding• Solving the “I’m Not Rich” problem first
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So, make the “rich” pay! Oh, wait….
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“The moral indignation of the age [the Progressive Era] was by no means directed entirely against others. It was in a great and critical measure directed inward. Contemporaries who spoke of the movement as an affair of the consciencewere not mistaken.”Richard Hofstadter (my italics)
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Where are Who’s Who from?
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US and UK: Class Reproduction
• Bigger race influence in U.S. (black mobility)• Secondary schools weigh more heavily in UK
than US (McKnight 2015; Reeves, Friedman, Rahal, Flemmen, 2017)
• Household composition (single parents)• Geographical variation greater in U.S. [?]• Zoning policy more direct impact [?]
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The World’s Problem?
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Cum
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Percentile/ventile of global income distribution in PPP-adjusted 2005 USD
Distribution of global income growth from 1988 to 2008
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…A UK and US Problem
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Perc
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Percentile/ventile of global income distribution in PPP-adjusted 2005 USD
Distribution of global income growth from 1988 to 2008 and mature economies' share of ventile population in 2008
Share of global ventile population in 2008 (%) Cumulative gain in real income (%)
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@richardvreeves
www.tinyletter.com/reevesweekly
www.brookings.edu/blogs/social-mobility-memos
