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Drought, fire and the carbon balance of Africa
Bob Scholes
CSIR Natural Resources and Environment
Outline
• Effects of drought on Net Ecosystem Exchange– Rainfall-NPP relationships– Soil moisture-respiration relationships– The effect of very high temperatures
• Drought, fire extent and fire emissions– Effects on burned fraction– Effects on net emissions
Overview of the African carbon balance(Williams et al, Africa and the global carbon cycle submitted to Science)
• 0.2 PgC/y fossil fuel emissions• 0.39+0.02PgC/y land use change
emissions• ~10+3 Pg/y NPP and 11+5 Rh
– Fires ~1.1+0.5 PgC/y contribution to respiration
– High interannual variability– Southern Africa small net sink, northern Africa
small net source?
Rainfall and grass NPP(Noy-Meir’s inverse texture hypothesis)
0
100
200
300
400
500
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Annual rainfall
Gra
ss A
G N
PP (g
/m2/
y)
clay soil
sand soil 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
50 60 70 80 90 100
Sand %
Rai
n u
se e
ffic
ien
cy (
kg/h
a/m
m)
-3000
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
0 5 10 15
Rain use efficiency (kg/ha/mm)
Inte
rcep
t o
f A
GG
NP
P v
s R
ain
(k
g/h
a/y)
Scholes RJ 2004 J Env Res Economics 26,559
AGNPP = f(rainfall, soil type)
Consequence: interannual variability of grass production is higher on clays than sands
0
100
200
300
400
500
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Annual rainfall
Gra
ss A
G N
PP
(g
/m2/
y)
clay soil
sand soil
clay
sand
rain
Rainfall and tree NPP(Charlie Shackleton dataset)
• Tree increment is not a function of rainfall or soil type!– But prolonged drought leads to increased tree
mortality
• Is a function of inter-tree competition and tree stem diameter
Constraints on tree coverSankaran et al 2005 Determinants of woody cover in African
savannas Nature 438, 846-9
Ecosystem-scale NPP in relation to water and temperature
• What happens when things get really hot?• Especially if they get drier:
– southern Africa on west side projected to get >3ºC warmer and ~10% drier
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Airtemperature > 30°Airtemperature < 30°
Can
opy
cond
ucta
nce
(m
mol
m-2 s
-1)
Water vapour pressure deficit of the air (bar)
Hot air is dry airDry air reduces canopy conductance
(data courtesy of Werner Kutsch [and Ian McHugh!])
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Airtemperature > 30°Airtemperature < 30°
Eco
syst
em C
O2
fluxe
s
(µm
ol m
-2 s
-1)
Canopy conductance (mmol m-2 s-1)
The shape of the NEEday vs VPD curve does not change with temperature but on hot days you are more likely to be at the dry end
Therefore, hot dry weather reduces NPP
y = 0.3079e0.0472x
R2 = 0.1252
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10 20 30 40 50
y = 0.8822e0.0382x
R2 = 0.3109
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10 20 30 40 50
y = 0.4529e0.0769x
R2 = 0.4019
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10 20 30 40 50
Soil temperature at 7 cm (°C)
Eco
syst
em r
espi
ratio
n
(µm
ol m
-2 s
-1)
Wet soil Medium soil Dry soil
Night time fluxesSkukuza site
Does the optimum shift to higher temperatures in dry soil, or is this just an artifactof sampling – there are no hot wet days?
31ºC 34ºC 39ºC
Soil moisture, temperature and Rsoil(Skukuza data: Musa Mvundla)
0
1
2
3
0 10 20 30 40 50Soil temperature @ 5 cm (C)
So
il r
esp
irat
ion
rat
e (g
/m2 /h
r)
Envelope DRY WET MOIST
The effects of very high future temperatures
• Soil and air temperatures reach their maximum when there is insufficient water to cool the system and buffer it through heat capacity
• These temperatures (Tair>35ºC, and Tsoil>40ºC) are above the postulated optima for both carbon assimilation and respiration, and can approach the lethal maxima.
• How adaptable are these optima and maxima to a global rise of a further 2-5ºC?
The composite picture
satwpadSoil water content
NEE
Rh
NPP
Drought effects on albedo
• On the light-coloured soils that predominate in Africa, drought leads to an increase in albedo equivalent to several 10s of W/m2
• If drought is accompanied by high livestock numbers, this raised albedo is persistent
• There may be a regional-scale precipitation feedback
• This effect may be as significant for global warming as the C emissions
In Southern African savannas, fire emissions go down in the dry season after a low-
rainfall growing season
• Data from Modis burned area product (in prep)• Evidence from CO measurements at Cape Point
• Reason is that – Fire extent is a function of fuel load– Number of ignitions also apparently goes down– Emissions also a function of fuel load
Brunke, E-G. and Scheel, H.E. (1997). On the contribution from biomass burning to the concentrations of CO and O3 at Cape Point. Conf. Proceedings of the fifth international conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography (American Meteorological Society), Pretoria, South Africa, 7-11 April 1997, P3.33. [poster presentation]
The long-term effects of changes in the fire regime on system C
Kruger Park fire trials Otter (1992)
0
5
10
15
20
25P
rote
cted
Tri
enni
al
Bie
nnia
l
Ann
ual
50-year fire regime
So
il O
C (
30 c
m)
mg
/g
Kambeni sandy
Shabeni sandy
Satara clay
Nwanetsi clay
The Namibia caseTree biomass increased following cattle ranching.
Thought to be due to reduced intensity and frequencyof fire
Time (years)
0 50
Car
bon
dens
ity (g
C/m
2 )
Bush encroachment begins
Still encroached, but further carbon uptake now zero
Total amount of carbon taken up
Time (years)
0 50
Car
bon
dens
ity (g
C/m
2 )
Bush encroachment begins
Still encroached, but further carbon uptake now zero
Total amount of carbon taken up
Approximate estimate of C uptake through bushencroachment: 620 TgC over 50 years, on 494 000 km2.
~ 12.4 TgC/y
Many times higher than thetotal emissions for Namibia!
The miombo woodland case
• Projected to be transformed into cropland over the next 30 years
• 6 x 106 m2 x (2.5 (soil)+ 2 (tree) x 103 gC/m2)
= 27 PgC
The end