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Droughts, Distress, and Policies for Prevention, Mitigation and Relief in Bihar
Avinash Kishore, PK Joshi and Divya Pande
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
16.3
-21.6
33.4
-19.8
18.2
-8
37.224247667305
2
-21.925518980501
6
26.883146845080
2
-18.228101277330
8
14.920229028851
-13.534561989067
9
30.562237762237
8
-8.7753877795869
4
22.043212775951
2
-15.379286456529
3
19.911766043571
213.525507301346
59.2312318332164 -
11.580106441548
9
Growth (%) in GSDPA
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
GSDPA (2004-05 Prices)
The volatility will be even higher in the crop GDP
2009 to 2013 has been the driest 5-year period in Bihar since 1901
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
Actual rainfall in SW Monsoon Avg. Rainfall (SW Monsoon) Threshold for drought
Rain
fall
(mm
)
Source: India Water Portal 2012
Late onset of monsoon in 2014 (19% deficiency till mid-July). Deficient rains in 22 districts and scanty in 1 in 2015 also.
.
The worst flood affected state has been afflicted more by droughts in last 7 years
***Of the 38 districts in the state, 5 (Khagaria, Pashchim Champararn, Saharsa, Siwan and Seohar) have experienced droughts in all five years from 2009 to 2013; 14 experienced droughts in 4 out of these 5 years; another 14 saw 3 years of drought while the remaining 5 saw two years of drought
2009 2010 2012 2013 2014* 201505
10152025303540
26
38
25
3328
23
# Drought affected districts (2009-2015)
Low rainfall leads to significant reduction in paddy output
Normal rainfall Drought Severe drought 0.00
200.00400.00600.00800.00
1,000.001,200.001,400.001,600.00 1413
1028885
Average paddy yield (kg/ha)
Normal rainfall Drought Severe drought 0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000 94,398 88,864
64,560
Average paddy area per district (ha)
Droughts have had a significant negative effect on area and yield of paddy in the last ten years (2001-2011)**
(1) (2)
Variables Paddy yield Paddy area
If drought -318.8*** -7,751*** (71.73) (2,840)
Year -8.414 -1,173*** (7.773) (357.7)
Constant 18,004 2.477e+06*** (15,580) (717,440)
Observations 374 374R-squared 0.568 0.904
District dummies Yes Yes
Drought in 2009 had a bigger impact on paddy in Bihar* than in other state of India
State Deviation (%) from normal (June–August)
rainfall1
Change (%) in production from
triennium (2006–08) average
Net irrigated area as % of net sown area, 2009–
10
Andhra Pradesh -35 (Telangana);
-25 (Andhra)-19.82 42
Assam -30.00 26.92 7Bihar -28.00 -28.02 64
Haryana -35.00 5.81 86Jharkhand -23.00 -52.57 8
Punjab -34.00 6.57 98Uttar Pradesh -38 (Eastern U.P.);
-43 (Western U.P.)-9.93 81
India -22.00 -7.59 45
Year GSDP /capita (Rs)*
AgGDP/capita (Rs)*
Average rural MPCE (Rs)*
Rural HCR (%)
2004–05 8,773 2,608 438 55.7
2009–10 11,815 2,501 478 55.3
2011–12 14,634 3,175 624 33.74
• Huge ill-fare from droughts• Drought in 2009 wiped out economic gains of rapid growth of 5-years• >10 million pushed below poverty line
[A1]Please spell out acronym.
* At 2004–05 constant prices
Effective drought proofing is essential to poverty reduction in the state
The poorest suffered the most due to the drought-led shrinking of the agrarian economy
Quintile1 Quintile2 Quintile3 Quintile4 Quintile50100200300400500600700800900
1000
MPCE in Rural Bihar (2004-05 to 2009-10) by Quintiles
61st round 66th round Series3
Drought ReliefDo Social Safety Programs Help in Drought Years?
MGNREGS (2006–13)
Employment demanded (persons) Employment provided Wage disbursed (in ten thousand Rs)0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
78,734 77,726
21,554
93,013 92,898
31,211
Normal Drought affected
Impact of drought on demand and provision of employment and wage distribution under MGNREGS in Bihar
(1) (2) (3)
Variables Empl. demand Empl. provided Labor expense
Drought 16,917** 17,494** 886.7**Year -1,355 -1,207 49.01
Constant 72340.37*** 71067.73*** 218.0488**
Observations 304 304 304R-squared 0.404 0.407 0.265
District dummies Yes Yes Yes
Positive response to drought, but too small (Rs./poor household) to make a real dent
Likelihood of getting rice or wheat from PDS shops was not higher in drought affected districts in 2009-10
Variables If bought grains from PDS
If drought 0.179Landowned 372.4
Salary 0.574***MPCE URP -0.000376**If firewood -0.330***If electricity 0.209*
HH type (ag. labor) 0.301***HH type (nonag. labor) 0.402***
HH type (cultivator) -0.758***1. social group (ST) 0.2962. social group (SC) 0.413***
3. social group (OBC) 0.191*Constant -3.280***
Observations 3,292
Drought MitigationDoes Subsidizing Diesel Help?
Diesel subsidy for drought affected blocks is perhaps the largest CCT program for in agriculture in the world
* Allocation in 2014 was enough to subsidize three irrigations (35 hours of pumping) the entire area under paddy in Bihar
2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 Total0
2000400060008000
100001200014000160001800020000
630.6
30001796.89 2142.91 2359.486
7690.6
17620.486
Subsidy Allocation in million Rs (2008-14)
The scheme favors larger farmers
percent aware percent applied percent aware who did not
apply
average subsidy (ten
Rs.)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
87
27
61
10.1
9785
12
59.4
Marginal Farmers (n = 120) Other Farmers (n = 97)
…and pump owners
%Aware % Applied %Aware who did not apply0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100 94
65
29
90
35
55
Owns Diesel Pump (128) Doesn't Own One (88)
Smallholders under-irrigate paddy even in a drought year
Source: Singh (2013) based on VDSA data in 2012
Sub-acre 1-2.5acre >2.5 acre0
20
40
60
80
100
120
26.9 27.5 13.7
48.428
16.3
15.9
11.6
6.7
6.730.1
56.4
Percentage of Paddy Area Getting Different Number of Waterings
1 irrigation 2 irrigations 3 irrigations 4 irrigations 5 or more irrigations
Agriculturally progressive districts with higher pump density get more diesel subsidy
VARIABLES Subsidy uptake_perha
rainfall_deviation1 -0.189
tubewells_perha2 1,167***
agGDP_perha3 136.6***
avg_landholding_ha4 51.89
year 72.28***
Constant -145,530***
Observations 112
The diesel subsidy scheme does not seem to work
VARIABLES paddy_yield paddy_area
if_drought -446.7** -4,807
if_drought*dieselsubsidyperha 0.267 -29.86
2012.year 1,356*** 13,384
Constant 1,395*** 75,019***
Observations 75 75
Drought ProofingSubsidy on tube-wells & diesel pumps and
construction/restoration of public tube-wells : Do they help?
Subsidy on Shallow Tubewells• Million Shallow Tube-wells Program
• A big success: 4 lakh new STWs @Rs. 3.13 billion • BIGWIS: 0.133 million new STWs since 2009 @ 45% subsidy
• All farmers in Bihar—small and large—have access to irrigation (Thorpe et al, 2007)
• Bihar needs to promote intensification of irrigation, not expansion
• Access to groundwater is already there; affordable access is the problem
• More STWs unlikely to make groundwater access more affordable
Subsidy on diesel pump-sets• Water prices rising with rising diesel
price• More than proportionately
• In spite of increase in pump density
• New pump-sets being purchased while old ones remain severely underutilized
• High variable cost; small fixed costs
• More subsidized pump-sets will not change that• Rents will rise with rise in price of diesel
and rural wage rates
Investment in Public Tube-wells• Long history : Since 1937
• 5311 built by 1983• Rs. 2.77 bn to revive them in 1986• 5556 PTWs built between 1999 & 2007 @
Rs. 5 billion• NABARD financed Rs.3 billion to build
3000 new PTWs; revive 922 old ones in2007
• Perpetual cycle of construction—non-use—revival
• Sheer waste of billions of rupees
• May work if powered by solar energy
Ways Ahead• Affordable irrigation is essential for climate resilient
agriculture in Bihar
• Irrigation can be affordable• If rural areas get reliable power supply : may take years, if
not decades• But it is worth trying
• Solar energy is a possible, climate-friendly solution• But requires sensible subsidy policy
• The current program for solar pumps is very bad• Needs immediate change• Farmers and solar companies need better financing model
Thank You!