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Dry season response 2017 Ashley Herbert Ed Riggall
Dry season response
2017
Ashley Herbert Ed Riggall
Poor seasons happen
incrementally
Things don’t turn bad overnight
The key is to recognise the signs / trigger points
And take timely action- Make a decision
Reducing stocking rate/ grazing pressure in a structured way is a key component
Tactics Outcome
That increase carrying capacity
Increase supplementary feeding Maintain stock condition- sustain flock production, reproduction and sale value
Reduced crop- increase pasture Reduced winter stocking rate but less stubble area to graze following summer
Put stock in containment areas Preserve ground cover, protect top soils, defer graze pastures to increase growth
Growth promotants on pastures Increase winter and spring pasture growth Control pasture insects Increase winter and spring pasture growth Graze crops Defer graze pastures, reduce sup. feeding Strip grazing Increase winter and spring pasture growth Rotational grazing Increase winter and spring pasture growth Early weaning Maintain ewe condition to reduce the
chance of carry over effects to next joining That reduce feed demand Selling dry stock Reduce stocking rate, maintain core
breeders Agistment off-farm Reduce stocking rate at home but maintain
flock size for when the season breaks Early stock sales Ensures surplus sheep don’t consume
summer feed reserves- more for core flock
Example exit strategy
Date of break
Potential SR
(DSE/wgha)
Planned SR
(DSE/wgha)
Tactic Change in CP or SR
Actions
1st May
11 8
7th May
10 8
14th May
9 8
Scan ewes - 227 dry ewes
21st May
8 8
28th May 7 8
Increase grain feeding by 100g Lupins/d
+500 dse CP
Buy 50t lupins
4th June
6 7 Sell dry ewes Increase feeding by another 50g lupins/d
-500 dse SR
Sell 227 dry ewes
11th June 5 5
Sell top line wether hoggets feedlot remainder
-844 dse SR
Sell 281 wethers Buy 50t lupins & 50t hay
18th June 4 5
Increase feed another 50g Lupins/d
Buy 50t lupins
Implications of a poor spring
Late break/dry winter increases impact of poor spring
Some cropping enterprises already have a cut off date due to spray topping for next year.
We can make some estimates of how much dry matter will be grown through looking at historical PGR data.
We need to do an audit of how much feed & water will be available to get sheep through to the following growing season.
And consider how our farm and sheep will look at the end of next Autumn.
Phases of Drought
Hope
Worry
Panic
Decisions
Action
Messages to clients
Work to a plan.
Understand your position:
• Physically
• Financially
• Emotionally
Be objective, rationale, disciplined & honest with yourself & everyone else.
Look after yourself and family.
Good Decisions
Or
Right Decisions ?
Focus on:
The next 2 – 3 months
Staying in control
Making good decisions
Loss minimisation
Cost control on all levels.
Your wellbeing and that of those around you
Questions to answer
What is your plan?
- worst case
- likely
What are the risks?
Cash flow requirements
- during
- after
Do you need help?
BUDGET
Objectively and honestly
Scenarios
Determine the amount of available cash.
Identifies time frame and options
Helps to stay in control.
Monitor closely – Budget to actuals
Proactive and decisive.
Summary
Make ‘good’ decisions
Short term v medium term strategy
Be aware of risks
Ensure you consider the worst
Messages
Work to a plan.
Understand your position:
• Physically
• Financially
• Emotionally
Be objective, rationale, disciplined & honest with yourself & everyone else.
Look after yourself and family.
Comprehensive Advice – The Agrarian Advantage
Consulting, Agronomy, Research, Grain Marketing
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dse
Sheep Gross Margin/ dse
Kojonup 1984 - 2016
Consulting, Agronomy, Research, Grain Marketing
Sheep Gross Margin CPI Adjusted
Kojonup 1984 - 2016
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1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
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dse
ENERGY
PROTEIN
MINERALS
Nutritional Requirements
Maintenance
Energy Minimum
protein Ideal Protein
Dry Adult 6 – 8 MJ/hd/d 8% 10%
Joined ewe 7 – 10 MJ/hd/d 12% at term 12%
Lactating ewe 15 – 20 MJ/hd/d 12% 15%
Weaner 4 – 6 MJ/hd/d 14% 14 – 16%
Feed Value of Grain
Energy
(MJME/kgDM)
Protein
(% content)
Dry sheep
requirements
Kg DM/hd/d
Oats 8 – 11.5 5.5 – 13 0.52 – 1.0 kg/d
Lupins 13 – 14 27 – 35 0.43 – 0.61 kg/d
Barley 11.5 – 12 7 – 13 0.5 – 0.69 kg/d
Wheat 12 - 13 7 - 13 0.46 – 0.67 kg/d
Estimating Maintenance Energy
Live weight (kg) X 0.1 + 1.5
Risks
Feed prices – timing of purchase
Wool market
Sheep market – timing of sales
Length of drought
Maintenance - Pregnancy
Day Single
(MJME/hd/d)
Lupins kg/hd/d Cost/d
100 9.5 0.7 $0.25
110 10.0 0.7 $0.26
120 10.6 0.8 $0.27
130 11.2 0.8 $0.29
140 12.0 0.9 $0.31
150 12.7 0.9 $0.33
Source: Life Time Ewe Management
Maintenance - Pregnancy
Day Twin
(MJME/hd/d)
Lupins kg/hd/d Cost/d
100 10.5 0.8 $0.27
110 11.2 0.8 $0.29
120 12.1 0.9 $0.31
130 13.1 1.0 $0.34
140 14.0 1.0 $0.36
150 14.8 1.1 $0.38
Source: Life Time Ewe Management
Maintenance - Lactation
Day Single (MJME/hd/d)
Lupins kg/hd/d
Cost/d
10 18.7 1.4 $0.48
20 20.7 1.5 $0.54
30 20.2 1.5 $0.52
40 18.2 1.3 $0.47
50 16.7 1.2 $0.43
60 14.9 1.1 $0.39
70 14.1 1.0 $0.37
80 13.4 1.0 $0.35
90 11.0 0.8 $0.29
Source: Life Time Ewe Management
Maintenance - Lactation
Day Twin (MJME/hd/d)
Lupins kg/hd/d
Cost/d
10 23.4 1.7 $0.61
20 26.6 2.0 $0.69
30 25.8 1.9 $0.67
40 23.4 1.7 $0.61
50 20.6 1.5 $0.53
60 18.1 1.3 $0.47
70 15.8 1.2 $0.41
80 13.9 1.0 $0.36
90 12.4 0.9 $0.32
Source: Life Time Ewe Management
Least cost feeding strategy
Feed Analysis
Cost feed per unit of energy on farm
Cost protein supplement (if necessary)
Monitor stock by weight and adjust feeding
Draft off poor performers
Allow stock to slip to minimum condition
scores
Costing a Ration
Feed Proportion in
ration
Cost
($/t)
Ration cost
($/t)
Lupins 40% $330 $132
Hay 60% $100 $60
TOTAL $192
Calculating Ration Energy
Feed Proportion in
ration
Energy
(MJME/kg)
Ration
(MJME/kg)
Lupins 40% 13 5.2
Hay 60% 7 4.2
TOTAL 9.4
Maintenance v’s production
feeding
Maintenance Production
Survival Saleable item
Energy Energy + protein
Early weaning Weight gain
Cost of maintenance versus replacement cost
Cost of production versus price received
Maintenance feeding in confinement
Lupins - $350/t Ewe – 7.0 MJ ME/hd/d Ram – 8.5 MJ ME/hd/d
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Total
Ewes (hd) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
% Ration 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
g/hd/d 519 519 519 519 519 519 519 519 519 519 519
Tonnes 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 17 tonnes
Rams 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
% Ration 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
g/hd/d 630 630 630 630 630 630 630 630 630 630 630
Tonnes 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.31 tonnes
kg/ hd/ month 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
Cumulative tonnes 2 3 5 6 8 10 11 13 14 16 17 17 tonnes
Cumulative kg/hd 16 31 47 62 78 94 109 125 140 156 172 172 kg/hd
Cumulative cost $554 $1,109 $1,663 $2,217 $2,772 $3,326 $3,881 $4,435 $4,989 $5,544 $6,098 $60 /hd
Maintenance feeding with a spring
Lupins - $350/t Ewe – 7.0 MJ ME/hd/d Ram – 8.5 MJ ME/hd/d
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Total
Ewes 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
% Ration 100% 50% 0% 25% 40% 50% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
g/hd/d 519 259 0 130 207 259 519 519 519 519 519
Tonnes 1.8 0.9 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 13 tonnes
Rams 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
% Ration 100% 50% 0% 25% 40% 50% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
g/hd/d 630 315 0 157 252 315 630 630 630 630 630
Tonnes 0.028 0.014 0.000 0.007 0.011 0.014 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.22 tonnes
kg/ hd/ month 18 9 0 5 7 9 16 16 16 16 16
Cumulative tonnes 2 3 3 3 4 5 7 8 10 11 13 13 tonnes
Cumulative kg/hd 18 28 28 32 40 49 65 80 96 111 127 127 kg/hd
Cumulative cost $655 $983 $983 $1,147 $1,409 $1,737 $2,291 $2,846 $3,400 $3,954 $4,509 $44 /hd
Confinement
Maintenance Feeding April Lambing
Lupins - $350/t Ewe – 7.0 MJ ME/hd/d Ram – 8.5 MJ ME/hd/d
Confinement
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Total
Ewes 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
% Ration 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 104% 114% 134% 211% 227%
g/hd/d 519 519 519 519 519 519 540 590 827 1,296 1,393
Tonnes 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.1 3.9 4.2 23 tonnes
Rams 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
% Ration 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
g/hd/d 630 630 630 630 630 630 630 630 630 630 630
Tonnes 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.31 tonnes
kg/ hd/ month 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 18 21 39 41
Cumulative tonnes 2 3 5 6 8 10 11 13 15 19 23 23 tonnes
Cumulative kg/hd 16 31 47 62 78 94 110 128 148 187 228 228 kg/hd
Cumulative cost $554 $1,109 $1,663 $2,217 $2,772 $3,326 $3,903 $4,532 $5,274 $6,645 $8,117 $80 /hd
Grazing crops
1. All cereal and canola varieties can be grazed
2. Choose clean paddocks when grazing cereals
3. Select the right variety for the sowing date
4. Adhere to WHP’s for chemicals
5. Graze early (pinch & twist)
6. Supplement stock with Ca:Na:Mg (cereals)
and fibre (canola)
7. Don’t graze too late (before GS 30, Bud 10cm
and mid July)
8. Clip rather than crash graze when
approaching Z30 or Bud 10cm
9. Apply top-up Nitrogen after grazing, not
before
Grazing Intensity
Timing of Grazing
Which sheep to carry?
Considerations:
1. Carrying capacity winter and spring
2. Current known value vs potential future value of stock
3. Potential or capacity to reliably add value
4. Potential to lose value
5. Access to adequate feed and reliability of access.
6. Financial capacity to carry stock ie purchase grain.
7. Priority given to stock to be carried into 2018 season
8. Risk and reward to other livestock.
Which sheep to carry?
Likely priority:
1.Mature ewes 2.5 and 3.5 yo
2.Rising maidens
3.Mature ewes 4.5 yo
4.Ewe lambs (2017 drop)
5.Wether lambs or Wether hoggets
Market options for 2017 lambs? • Air Freight- 12 -22 kg Dressed. XB Dressing Percentage 41/42% Merino 39/40% Merino Live weight starts at 31, XB starts at 32 kg. • Selling Stores into a feedlot 25 kg live weight. • Conversion Ratio- A rough Farm feedlot conversion
ratio is 10/1, that is 10 kgs of feed to 1 kg live weight. This includes shy feeders, deaths ect. More professional feedlots range from 6 -8.
• Pasture driven weight gain can be as high as
250g/hd/d depending on FOO and % of Clover. • Shippers – Its all about Condition
Droughtlots – Eastern states experience (Source: David Sackett)
Key Questions
Death rates?
Culling rate?
Optimum stocking density?
Mob size?
Troughs?
Roughage?
Time on feed?
Average Range
Deaths 1.8% 0 - 22%
Deaths & Culls 10% 0 - 58%
Time on feed (days)
136 41 – 407
Age (yrs) 2.5 0.3 – 7
Stocking density/ha
1210 2 – 9862
Mob size 1214 22 – 12222
Supplementary feeding prior to entry (wks)
6.8 0 - 40
Results
Troughs?
Effect of troughs
0.85%
1.74%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
Ground Trough
Mo
rta
lity
Effect of troughs and mob size
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
0 1250 2500 3750 5000
Mob Size
Mort
alit
y
Ground Trough
Tail management & mob size
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
0 750 1500 2250 3000 3750 4500
Mob Size
Mort
alit
y
Frequent None
So ...
Stock at approx 2000/ha
Optimum mob size <1000
Maximum mob size 2,000
Remove tail at least every 2 months
The bigger the mob, the more important to manage the tail
Roughage
Franklin (1950’s) - Wheat only for 35 weeks
- No effect of roughage on deaths
Effect of roughage
1.34%
0.76%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
No Yes
Roughage
Mo
rtali
ty
Hay V’s Straw
‘Poor Doers’
Minimal roughage
Hay (0.5 kg) 25%
Straw (0.7 kg) 8%
Moderate roughage
Hay (1.0 kg) 18%
Straw (1.4 kg) 3%
So...
Feed roughage
Straw better than hay
Approx 1 kg/hd/wk
Recommendations Stock at approx 2000/ha
Optimum mob size <1,000, max 2,000
Remove tail at least every 2 months, partic if >1000 in
mob
Leave weaners out if possible
Feed roughage @ min 1 kg/hd/wk
Use low quality roughage (straw, not hay)
Troughs? – probably yes but not essential
Producer comments
98% would use droughtlot again
Reasons
Preserve soil/pastures 53%
More convenient to feed/manage 39%
Easier to manage water 6%
Comprehensive Advice – The Agrarian Advantage
Flock composition & the
economics of feeding sheep
Some assumptions
• Sheep maintain value
However some risk so low priority sheep to go
• Confinement feeding is completed with a level of skill, with low waste and low losses.
• <CS 2.3 is defined as too skinny to join
What is the priority for the
limited green feed this spring
1. Weaners that are being retained gaining weight.
2. Ewes too thin to mate (CS ≤ 2.3).
3. Thin ewes (CS 2.5), especially if they had twins in 2017 and Maidens.
4. Ewes in CS 3 and Ewes joined to XB in CS 2.5
5. Lambs being fattened for sale.
6. Ewes in CS 3 or more are the lowest priority (although it still pays to feed for maintenance
What is the priority for the limited green feed this spring
Weaners
Having weaners that are being retained gaining
weight is the highest priority.
Target weight gain - 1kg/hd/ month
All about survival
What is the priority for the
limited green feed this spring
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
10 15 20 25
Su
rviv
al
to 1
4 m
nth
s
Average Weaning Wt (kg/hd)
0.25
0.375
0.5
0.75
1
2
Ew e CS
Profile
LactationFOO
Post-weaning LW gain (kg/mth)
What is the priority for the
limited green feed this spring
1. Ewes too thin to mate (CS ≤ 2.3). 1. $15/kg
2. Increased Lwt increases lambing rate.
3. Value in additional lambs.
2. Thin ewes (CS 2.5), especially if they had twins in 2017 and Maidens. 1. $2.90/kg
2. Joined to merino ram
3. Merino ewe lambs more value in medium term.
3. Ewes in CS 3 and Ewes joined to XB in CS 2.5
