AN AMERICAN JEWISH – GERMAN INFORMATION & OPINION NEWSLETTER dubowdigest@optonline.net

AMERICAN EDITION

June 12, 2011

Dear friends:

I’m back! Neither E.coli nor too much wurst got me.

The trip to Germany with this year’s participants in the 31st annual AJC – Konrad Adenauer Foundation Exchange Program was genuinely exciting. The group itself was great (smart, articulate and deeply interested in German – Jewish relations) and the program put together for us (Munich and Berlin) by Ingrid Garwels of the KAF was outstanding.

We met with many people and heard a lot especially about Germany’s stance on the Israel-Palestinian matter and the progress made by the Jews from the former Soviet Union who have settled in Germany. We all took a lot of notes. Rather than quote each and every source I will try to summarize the main points that were made hoping that what appears below is accurate. I’m sure that members of my delegation will write to me if they think I erred.

Middle East

First and foremost, and almost without exception, we were told that the German government and leadership stand firmly behind Israel’s security but, (and this is a big but) they feel that the current Israeli government is not doing enough to bring about peace. Prime Minister Netanyahu is far from being a favorite (That’s a kind assessment). If, indeed, the German government’s commitment to Israel is firm, that of the non-elite Germans (the citizenry) throughout the country is a lot less so. I did not do any surveys but my guess is that support of Israel is down in the teens somewhere – and Germany is probably more positive than the results in the other EU countries. As one speaker put it, Israel’s popularity is down there with N. Korea and Iran.

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A legitimate question is, “When will the German unhappiness with the settlement policy and the alleged Israeli intransigence regarding the peace process build up sufficiently to begin to impact upon government policy?” Of course, no one knows the answer or what will actually happen between Israel and the Palestinians. Recently the French have suggested some sort of a peace conference in France and our own government has suggested that the Turks sponsor a conference in order to hold off the next Gaza flotilla that is planned for later this month. However, Chancellor Merkel, Israel’s staunchest ally, is having political troubles of her own so she, or any politician for that matter, will be able hold off a strong anti-Israel wave forever. The German policy already favors more accommodation on the part of Israel. No question! A stronger stand against Israel policy is not far off if nothing in the Middle East changes.

The battle to make Israel’s case in Germany is left to the Central Council of Jews in Germany (Zentralrat), the Israeli Embassy and AJC plus a few other small independent groups. I fear that what they have to say is seen as “special pleading” and, perhaps, is discounted and does not change attitudes. However, trying to add a note of objectivity to the public discourse is not an easy task though, of course, it must and will continue.

I have often asked myself what Germany’s commitment to Israel’s security really means. Would they commit their military to fight on Israel’s behalf if a war broke out or would diplomatic and economic assistance be the limit of their willingness to come to Israel’s aid? Munich based Prof. Dr. Michael Wolffsohn pointed out that Germany abhors the use of power and force in international relations as they did in the 20th Century. It is their “Never Again” while Israel believes that “Never Again” means never again being a victim.

Michael (he’s an old friend) noted that Germany does not believe in the centrality of territory. They gave up much of their own country to Poland after World War II and do not believe that Israel should put its focus on territorial boundaries. Of course, the matter of the religious meaning of the land means a great deal to both the Arabs and the Israelis. This is not the case with Germany which is, by and large, secularized. Religion is not much of a factor in German political thinking these days.

Interestingly (at least to me), I had occasion a talk with a very high German military person (high rank). I asked him the question about whether the German armed forces would ever become involved in a Middle East shooting war if Israel’s security was in question. He responded by saying that if Israel requested military help Germany would have no option than to come to Israel’s assistance. Of course, my respondent was a military man and not a politician. I wonder whether the politicos would be in the same boat.

Jews in Germany

There was a difference in opinion among the Jewish speakers (and others) we met

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with about the future of the Jewish community in Germany. In 1989 when the Berlin Wall fell, there were 28,000 Jews (combined East and West) in Germany. With the implosion of the Soviet Union, Jews from there flocked to Israel, the U. S. and Germany. Today there are 105,000 registered Jews and, perhaps, another 100,000 to 150,000 who are unregistered. There are even (roughly) 20,000 Israelis who, mostly, live in Berlin.

Some felt that there is no “intellectual leadership” in Germany and that the numbers of Jews will slowly diminish and that much of what is today a substantial number in the community will largely evaporate. On the other hand, some feel that, while there will probably be a reduction in numbers, a “Russian leadership” will emerge from the second generation, change the nature of the community’s leadership and make for a smaller but more stable German Jewry.

I tend to lean toward the latter assessment. It’s only been 20 years since the vast majority of Russian Jews landed in Germany – almost all without knowledge of the German language and with no employment. Even in the U. S. in the 20th Century it was the second and third generation that finally became full blown “Americans”. Our Russian immigrants are undergoing the same sort of process that the German Russians are experiencing. Yes, the death rate among Jews in Germany now exceeds the birth rate and the immigration has largely stopped. That is a statistical concern but that does not mean the end of the community. Far from it!

There are now over a hundred Jewish communities in Germany. Some are very small and they probably will not all survive. My guess is that there will be a consolidation and in 20 or 30 years there will be 10 or 20 solid communities. The overall number may drop to even 100,000. So what? That’s better than the 28,000 that there were in 1989. I don’t think we’ve heard the last of the “Jews in Germany” whose children will one day be “German Jews”. To quote a former NY Mets baseball player, “You gotta believe”.

Anti-Semitism

Depending on who you talk to, the level of this virus is either up or down. Speaking to the people who monitor such things in Bavaria, we were told that there have been very few incidents. There are more in the former East Germany where there are a few members of the neo-Nazi National Democratic Party (NPD) in state legislatures but none in the Bundestag. Islamic extremism is being watched carefully. I didn’t detect any great change in the situation over last year. The various government agencies that follow the extremists continue doing their job but it does not appear as if anti-Semitism has expanded. It’s certainly there but not affecting government policy or the mass of population in any way. As long as that’s the case I’m not too worried.

IN THIS EDITION

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BREMEN – Another State election. Another loss for the Chancellor.

NUCLEAR POWER – Japan causes a 180degree turn.

GERMANY”S PLACE IN FOREIGN AFFAIRS – Major or minor?

MERKEL IN WASHINGTON – A great reception but did anything happen?

NEO-NAZI WOMEN – Are they burning their swastikas?

THE SURVEY – Thanks to those who participated.

BREMEN

While I was away, Bremen, which is both a city and a state, held its state election. Once again, the Christian Democrats (CDU) and its national coalition partner, the Free Democrats (FDP) took it on the chin.

The Local.de reported, “The Greens for the first time on Sunday overtook the conservatives in a state election in Germany, according to exit polls made public in the wake of the Bremen vote.

This was a further drubbing for Chancellor Angela Merkel following four other regional elections this year which have all seen her conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) shed support.

The Social Democrats (SPD), who have ruled the city-state of Bremen for 66 years, came out on top, and will be returned to power with their Green allies in the smallest of Germany's 16 states, exit polls show.

"For the first time in the history of the German Federal Republic, we are ahead of the CDU in a regional election," said one of the Green federal leaders Claudia Roth.

This is just another nail in the CDU-FDP coffin. Now, the box is not yet shut tight as the national election is still two years off. However, no matter how well Chancellor Merkel and her CDU do, unless the FDP can rise up from its doldrums there will be no logical party which the CDU can coalesce with to get a majority in the Bundestag unless…

I’ll have more to say about the “unless” a little later (below) in this newsletter.

NUCLEAR POWER

The nuclear power disaster in Japan resulted in a catastrophe for the Japanese but

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has also had considerable fallout in Germany. Chancellor Merkel, at the end of 2010 extended the lifetime of Germany's 17 reactors by an average of 12 years, which would have kept them open until the mid-2030s. Fukushima changed all of that.

TheLocal.de recently reported, “Chancellor Angela Merkel said the decision, hammered out by her centre-right coalition overnight, marked the start of a "fundamental" rethink of energy policy in the world's number four economy”..

"We want the electricity of the future to be safer and at the same time reliable and affordable," Merkel told reporters as she accepted the findings of an expert commission on nuclear power she appointed in March in response to the crisis at Japan's Fukushima plant.

"That means we must have a new approach to the supply network, energy efficiency, renewable energy and also long-term monitoring of the process," she said.

The commission found that it would be viable within a decade for Germany to mothball all 17 of its nuclear reactors, eight of which are currently off the electricity grid.

Germany’s seven oldest reactors, plus Krümmel reactor – all of which are currently offline after Japan's Fukushima disaster – will be closed down permanently. However, one of these, yet to be named, will remain on stand-by from 2013 – to be switched on only in the event of electricity shortages – until the full phase out in 2021 or 2022.

The decision is effectively a return to the timetable set by the previous Social Democrat-Green coalition government a decade ago. And it is a humbling U-turn for Merkel, who at the end of 2010 decided to extend the lifetime of Germany's 17 reactors by an average of 12 years, which would have kept them open until the mid-2030s.

That decision was unpopular in Germany even before the earthquake and tsunami in March that severely damaged the Fukushima nuclear facility in Japan, prompting Merkel's review of nuclear policy.

Her zigzagging on what has been a highly emotive issue in the country since the 1970s has cost her since at the ballot box.

The Chancellor’s 180 degree turnabout has not helped her image. However, the new (actually not so new in Germany) “No Nuclear” policy brings her and the coalition into line with the feelings of most German citizens.

Now to the “unless” factor – and this is all conjecture. If the FDP continues its downward slide and does not come up with enough voter strength to continue in the

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government with the CDU, might the Chancellor try to join up with the Greens instead. There are vast differences between the two parties but – nothing is impossible. At least now the CDU has a nuclear policy that the Greens might swallow. If for some reason both the Greens and the FDP both do poorly in 2013, might there be a “Grand Coalition” once again between the CDU and the Social Democrats (SPD), the other (at the moment) major party? Neither of these scenarios are particularly likely, however, the Chancellor is a great politician so I never count her out.

GERMANY”S PLACE IN FOREIGN AFFAIRS

I recently came across two articles which are very critical of Germany’s place in international diplomacy. Both indicate that the Federal Republic’s abstention in the UN on the Libya no-fly zone placed Germany in a very weak position.

Dustin Dehaz, a Frankfurt based historian and author who lectured to our group while we were in Berlin notes in an article published in www.atlantic-community.org, “For Germany's foreign policy conservatives and conservative intellectuals the past weeks have been yet another step toward general disillusion with and disbelief at the actions of its centre-right government. For years now Germany has lobbied hard to secure a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council and now that it has barely won a non-permanent for a two-year term, it struggles to manage its newly acquired political capital. The resolution to establish a no-fly zone over Libya presented the first serious challenge to the United Nations Security Council this year. And while all of Germany's major allies voted in its favour, Berlin abstained and joined the BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China, or so Germany's foreign minister, Guido Westerwelle, claims. A group, one might note, that in the context of sovereignty and a dictator's right to slaughter what is sometimes so callously referred to as his own people, is best understood as the gang of the world's leading reactionary powers.

Once the Council passed resolution 1973 to empower the international community to provide for the safety of the Libyan populace with any means deemed necessary, the German chancellor Angela Merkel was quick to declare that the government supported the goals set in the resolution to a hundred percent. This is as close to insanity as one can possibly get in international relations, and German intellectuals rightly ask why on earth the government decided to abstain from a resolution that it now claims to wholeheartedly consent to?

And where on the other hand is the aspiration to democracy and freedom of a people oppressed for four decades. Whoever concludes from that sort of consideration that the right course of action is to fold his hands (Ed. Note: Foreign Minister Westerwelle)and do nothing and then goes ahead to lobby others to do absolutely nothing is not only politically bankrupt, he has a right to also claim moral bankruptcy. It is here where many German conservative intellectuals rightly think

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their government has ended up.

To add to the negative commentary about German foreign policy, reporter Gerd Appenzeller, writing in Der Tagesspeigel penned an article entitled, “Germany in 2011: Economic Giant Political Dwarf. In it Hr. Appenzeller notes, “It's a thoroughly shameful situation. It's the precipitous decline of an important nation, a nation that is regressing back to a time when it was a passive player in global affairs.

It's a self-inflicted relegation from the ranks of the world players to the status of spectator and heckler. And we have to ask ourselves just how this could happen in less than a year and a half.

Germany is by far the most important economic power in the European Union. The EU would be unthinkable without its German engine, just as the euro debt crisis cannot be resolved without active German involvement.

Berlin wants a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council and German soldiers fight alongside those of other NATO countries in the struggle against international terrorism in Afghanistan.

But these facts and goals have little to do with Germany's current standing in the European Union and on the global stage. In the orchestra of great powers, Berlin has not had an instrument to play for months. Paris and London are making the music and giving the cues.

This country, represented by its government, has become a bystander to world politics while others show the way. How long has it been since Berlin had something to say and others actually listened?

There’s more and you should read both articles in full (links below). After reading the two articles the question I have revolves around Germany’s policies toward Israel. Is it really taking a backseat and, if so, what will happen if push comes to shove in the UN this fall when (if?) a Palestinian state is discussed? Chancellor Merkel is on record in being opposed to a unilateral declaration of such a state without direct negotiations with Israel. That position can be maintained with some muscle behind it – or not. Weak backing will be a clear message to the other European countries that are on the fence that it is O.K. to go ahead with a pro-Palestinian vote.

We’ll have to keep our eyes open and listen carefully as well to the sorts of messages that emanate from Berlin.

To read the Dehaz article click here. http://www.atlantic-community.org/index/Open_Think_Tank_Article/Germany%27s_Stance_on_Libya_Shows_Lack_of_Direction_in_Foreign_Policy

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To read the Appenzeller article click here http://www.thelocal.de/opinion/20110531-35367.html

MERKEL IN WASHINGTON

Chancellor Angela Merkel arrived in Washington on Monday evening (June 6th) for a visit aimed at emphasizing close relations between Germany and the US.

Pres. Obama presented her with the highest civilian award in the US - the Presidential Medal of Freedom - in a state dinner at the White House on Tuesday evening.

One would think that all is “peaches and cream”. It isn’t – on both sides!

DW-World.de noted, “Germany annoyed the US and many others in the international community with a surprising abstention when the UN Security Council voted to establish a no-fly zone over Libya. Great Britain and France made a positive impression on the US with their decisive action, while hesitant Germany was sent off to the sidelines of international diplomacy. At the same time, the US praised German suggestions for solving the Transnistrian conflict.

Prior to the controversial Libya vote, the relationship between Berlin and Washington was a solid one, but it lacked dynamism. Two and a half years after he took office, Obama still hasn't managed to visit Berlin.”

Der Spiegel reported, “More than anything, though, Merkel's Freedom Award is freighted with many hopes and expectations. Compared with where things stood just a year ago, people in Washington regard Merkel with much more skepticism today. "The prevailing view in Washington is that friendship with the United States is no longer necessarily Germany's top priority," says Fiona Hill, a Europe expert at the influential Washington-based Brookings Institution. Indeed, Americans want the old Merkel back.

Obama and Merkel have not established a close personal bond, but that's not the only problem. When it comes to important issues, Germany and the United States have never stood farther apart during Merkel's two terms as chancellor as they are at the moment. Merkel's reputation in Washington has been hurt by Germany's decision to phase out nuclear power by 2022, Berlin's abstention in a United Nations Security Council vote on imposing a "no-fly" zone in Libya and the country's economic and financial policies.

Looking at things from the opposite perspective, Obama's standing has also taken a hit in German government circles. In the Chancellery, he is viewed as a president who fails to deliver on lofty pronouncements. Indeed, Merkel does not have faith that

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he can solve the world's problems. The greatest thing the two governments have in common is their mutual annoyance.

Berlin views Obama's actions related to the Middle East conflict as particularly damaging. The government reportedly believes that Obama's most fundamental misstep came last September when he spoke before the UN General Assembly and predicted that a Palestinian state would be welcomed as a new member of the global community within a year. In Berlin, many feel it only served to foster unreasonable expectations among Palestinians -- and to anger the Israelis.

Merkel also resents Obama for having initially spoken out against intervening in Libya and then allowing pressure from Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and other advisers to change his mind. She believes that Obama did not give enough thought to the consequences of intervening in Libya and that doing so ended up putting Germany in an awkward position.

In the US, on the other hand, Germany's abstention in the UN Security Council vote was viewed as an effort to shirk its responsibility. "Merkel's Germany is now the most powerful country in Europe," says Stephen Szabo, executive director of the Washington-based Transatlantic Academy, "yet it still wants to act like Switzerland."

Though they might be less fraught with symbolism, the tensions related to economic policies are hardly less important. One major source of this tension can be found in US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who has hardly let a meeting of the G-20 finance ministers go by without criticizing German export surpluses in the same breath as Chinese trade surpluses.

Despite all these issues, Merkel and Obama are still dependent on one another. Washington knows that a government led by the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) or the Green Party would presumably be even less America-friendly than Merkel's government. At the same time, Berlin watches with worry as the Republicans seem to inch further and further to the right. For the time being, officials in Merkel's Chancellery realize that Obama is the best they're going to get

There is much more to read about the differences and difficulties that exist between the two countries. However, I think they both understand that for the time being (as above) for each, they are, “the best they’re going to get”. Yes, there will always be differences. After all, the two countries are located in different places, have different cultures and have very different political needs. However, there is this bond between them and so none of the problems are so dire as to make a real split possible. Since Obama and Merkel are both very good politicians I have the feeling that that they will settle some of the differences and paper over those that can’t be totally worked out.

As far as the issues that are of greatest concern to the Jewish community are concerned, they both still seem to be on the same page as far as Iran and the need for Israeli – Palestinian negotiations are concerned. We’ll just have to wait and see if

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that unanimity continues.

NEO-NAZI WOMEN

DW-WORLD.de reports, “Men make up the majority of neo-Nazis, but emancipation has also forged new territory for women in right-extremist circles in Germany. A new book sheds light on female neo-Nazis.

 “Women want to have their say. That slogan from the 1960's women liberation movement still echoes through to today. And it's a rallying cry that leaders from Germany's National Democratic Party, the NPD, have picked up on.

The NPD, which is not prohibited in Germany, uses women to lure people into the right-extremist movement, maintain authors Andrea Röpke and Andreas Speit. Their new book "Mädelsache! Frauen in der Neo-Nazi-Szene" ("Girls' Business: Women in the Neo-Nazi Scene") illuminates how women are used as ambassadors for the movement.

The strategy seems to work, as regional elections in the German state of Saxony-Anhalt this past March showed. NPD women reaped an impressive number of votes.

…authors Röpke and Speit stress that one should not underestimate the power and reach of women within the right-extremist movement. They have a stabilizing function within their groups; they are particularly loyal in toeing the NPD party line; and they have a major impact on how children and youth are raised.

They also don't stay within their own extremist enclaves, but are often employed as social workers or caregivers in pre-schools or daycare centers. There, they can easily recruit members for the movement - one with no shortage of young people, Speit said”.

I put this development in the “Didn’t we have enough to worry about?” category. I’m sure the German authorities are on to it and will watch it carefully. However, no matter how weak the neo-Nazi movement and its NPD party are, any development demands attention. While we in the Jewish community watch it (for historical reasons), the German government is watching even more closely. Most Germans are embarrassed by these groups and, more to the point, are very wary of them. The ruins and disaster of 1945 are still very much in the German psyche. That’s a very good place for them to be.

THE SURVEY

Many thanks to all of you who took the time to answer the brief survey I sent to you. The responses were very helpful.

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A vast majority (roughly 95%) said that I should keep the title, DuBow Digest. I bow to your superior knowledge on the subject of “branding”.

A sizeable minority, 30% felt that receiving it twice a month was too much and that it should be monthly. A few suggested a middle course – namely once every three weeks. No one suggested that I stop.

I am going to take that criticism to heart and feel that I can be more flexible in the future when thinking about when an edition should be e-mailed. I will not be compulsive about twice a month and rely more on how much there is to report. However, much of what is reported is time sensitive. I hate to wait too long and lose the timeliness of a subject.

So, in the future you will receive DD on a slightly less frequent basis. I don’t think we’ll lose much by doing it that way.

Again, my thanks for your cooperation. I deeply appreciate it.

************************************************************************************************DuBow Digest is written and published by Eugene DuBow who can be contacted by clicking here.

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